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the dismissal of the head of state or government for violating constitutional rules are being complied with

more.

6. 政府间政策产出数据集（IPOD）的介绍（Introducing the Intergovernmental Policy

Output Dataset (IPOD)）

Magnus Lundgren，瑞典哥德堡大学政治科学系副教授

Theresa Squatrito，英国伦敦政治经济学院政治科学系教授

Thomas Sommerer，德国波茨坦大学政治科学和公共管理系副教授

Jonas Tallberg，瑞典斯德哥尔摩大学法律与经济系副教授

【摘要】越来越多的人认识到，国际组织（IOs）在广泛的领域制定和采用政策。国际组织已成为各国

寻求共同解决气候变化或新冠肺炎（COVID-19）等当代挑战的重要场所，也是建立贸易、发展、安全

等框架的重要场所。国际组织以这种身份制定特殊政策和常规政策，其目的多种多样，从接纳新成员

等具有历史意义的政策，到管理国际组织工作人员等更为琐碎的任务。本文介绍了政府间政策产出数

据集（IPOD），该数据集涵盖了 1980-2015 年间 13 个多议题国际组织的近 37000 项独立政策行为。

该数据集填补了有关政府间组织比较研究的文献日益增多的空白，为研究人员提供了有关政府间组织

政策产出结构的精细视角，以及用于跨时间、跨政策领域和跨组织比较的数据。本文介绍了数据集的

构建和覆盖范围，并指出了数据揭示的关键时间和横向模式。为了简明扼要地说明该数据集的效用，

本文在对机构特征与广泛政策议程动态之间关系的比较研究中应用了点状均衡模型。总之，政府间政

策产出数据集为研究人员提供了一个独特的资源，可以对政府间组织的政策产出进行精细分析，并探

讨政府间组织的响应能力、绩效和合法性等问题。

【原文】There is a growing recognition that international organizations (IOs) formulate and adopt policy in

a wide range of areas. IOs have emerged as key venues for states seeking joint solutions to contemporary

challenges such as climate change or COVID-19, and to establish frameworks to bolster trade, development,

security, and more. In this capacity, IOs produce both extraordinary and routine policy output with a multitude

of purposes, ranging from policies of historic significance like admitting new members to the more mundane

tasks of administering IO staff. This article introduces the Intergovernmental Policy Output Dataset (IPOD),

which covers close to 37,000 individual policy acts of 13 multi-issue IOs in the 1980–2015 period. The dataset

fills a gap in the growing body of literature on the comparative study of IOs, providing researchers with a finegrained perspective on the structure of IO policy output and data for comparisons across time, policy areas,

and organizations. This article describes the construction and coverage of the dataset and identifies key

temporal and cross-sectional patterns revealed by the data. In a concise illustration of the dataset’s utility, we

apply models of punctuated equilibria in a comparative study of the relationship between institutional features

and broad policy agenda dynamics. Overall, the Intergovernmental Policy Output Dataset offers a unique

resource for researchers to analyze IO policy output in a granular manner and to explore questions of

responsiveness, performance, and legitimacy of IOs.

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7. 通过贸易协定进行移民管理：MITA 数据集的启示（Migration governance through

trade agreements: insights from the MITA dataset）

Sandra Lavenex，瑞士日内瓦大学政治科学和国际关系系副教授

Philipp Lutz，荷兰阿姆斯特丹自由大学政治科学和公共管理系副教授

Paula Hoffmeyer-Zlotnik，瑞士日内瓦大学政治科学和国际关系系副教授

【摘要】各国都在努力建立有关移民问题的多边合作，但它们却在优惠贸易协定（PTAs）中纳入了越

来越多的移民条款。本文通过介绍《优惠贸易协定中的移民条款》（MITA）数据集来揭示这一现象。

该数据集涵盖了 1960 年至 2020 年间签署的 797 个协定，对三类移民条款进行了精细编码：促进

服务提供者和劳动移民的国际流动、保护移民权利以及控制未经授权移民。在多边主义举步维艰的背

景下，本文针对两个关键的合作困境：发达国家内部以及发达国家与发展中国家之间的利益冲突，研

究了优惠贸易协定的移民政策内容。为商业和劳动力流动提供便利可能是解决第一种困境的一种可行

方法，这种困境通常被称为“自由主义悖论”：即经济上要求开放与政治上要求封闭之间的矛盾。然而，

这种便利在很大程度上仅限于高技术移民和发达经济体之间的协议。发达国家与发展中国家之间的协

议往往包含移民控制条款，这表明各国利用问题联系来解决第二种困境，即利益不对称。最后，有关

移民权利的条款并没有随着时间的推移而深化，因此显得尤为突出。本文的研究结果表明，虽然优惠

贸易协定已成为越来越常见的移民治理途径，但贸易与移民合作之间的问题联系使国际体系中根深蒂

固的分歧长期存在。《优惠贸易协定中的移民条款》数据集将使研究人员和政策制定者能够跟踪贸易

与移民关系的演变，并系统地研究优惠贸易协定中各种移民条款的动机和效果。

【原文】States struggle to establish multilateral cooperation on migration – yet they include more and more

migration provisions in preferential trade agreements (PTAs). This article sheds light on this phenomenon by

introducing the Migration Provisions in Preferential Trade Agreements (MITA) dataset. Covering 797

agreements signed between 1960 and 2020, this dataset offers a fine-grained coding of three types of migration

provisions: those that facilitate the international mobility of service providers and labor migrants, protect

migrant rights, and control unauthorized migration. Against the backdrop of limping multilateralism, we

examine PTAs’ migration policy content with regard to two key cooperation dilemmas: conflicts of interest

within developed countries and between them and developing countries. Facilitating business and labor

mobility might be a possible way around the first dilemma, commonly referred to as the ‘liberal paradox': the

tension between economic demands for openness and political calls for closure. Nevertheless, this facilitation

is largely limited to highly skilled migrants and agreements between developed economies. Provisions for

migration control tend to be included in agreements between developed and developing countries, which

signals that states use issue-linkages to address the second dilemma, i.e. interest asymmetries. Finally,

provisions for migrant rights stand out because they do not deepen over time. Our findings suggest that while

PTAs have become an increasingly common venue for migration governance, the issue-linkage between trade

and migration cooperation perpetuates entrenched divisions in the international system. The MITA dataset

will allow researchers and policymakers to track the evolution of the trade-migration nexus and systematically

investigate the motives for and effects of various migration provisions in PTAs.

【编译：崔育涞】【责任编辑：封欣怡】

2024 年第 3 期（总第 15 期）

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《 欧洲国际关系杂志 》 （ European Journal of International

Relations）

European Journal of International Relations， Vol. 30, No. 1, 2024

1. 自反性转向：国际关系中转向话语的崛起（Reflex to turn: the rise of turn-talk in

International Relations）

Jaakko Heiskanen，伦敦玛丽女王大学政治与国际关系学院讲师

Paul Beaumont，挪威国际事务研究所高级研究员

【摘要】国际关系领域似乎正在经历无穷无尽的“转向”。现有关于转向的分析为数不多，且主要关注

近来最突出的转向。通过挖掘 20 世纪 80 年代以来最早的国际关系学转向历史并追溯转向话语的演

变，本文揭示了这一现象背后一个至关重要但被忽视的内在驱动因素：自反性的崛起。转向话语并非

在 21 世纪出现，而是始于 20 世纪 80 年代末实证主义向自反性的转变。总体而言，这第一波转向使

国际关系学的国家中心本体论非自然化，同时将自反性奉为圭臬，成为批判性学者的典范。然而，到

了 20 世纪 90 年代中期，这些对实证主义的元理论批判引发了相当大的反弹。新一代自反主义者被指

责助长了神秘的解构主义, 他们开始证明后实证主义经验研究的可行性。因此，21 世纪以来，国际关

系的转向也呈现出不同的形式：第一波转向对实证主义主流发起了认识论和方法论的攻击，第二波转

向则着手将新的本体论对象置于自反主义学者的审视之下。这种从反实证主义到主要是自反主义内部

转向的变化得益于作为该学科主要子领域的批判国际关系学的制度化。正是自反性在批判国际关系学

者中的特权地位为无休止的转向提供了可能条件，而在竞争日益激烈的环境中展示新颖力的压力又加

剧了这种转向。

【原文】The field of International Relations (IR) is being spun around by a seemingly endless number of

‘turns’. Existing analyses of turning are few in number and predominantly concerned with the most prominent

recent turns. By excavating the forgotten history of IR’s earliest turns from the 1980s and tracing the evolution

of turn-talk over time, this article reveals a crucial yet overlooked internalist driver behind the phenomenon:

the rise of reflexivity. Rather than emerging in the 21st century, turn-talk began at the end of the 1980s as a

《欧洲国际关系杂志》（European Journal of International

Relations）广泛地代表了已在欧洲发展的国际关系领域。

自 1995 年创刊以来，该杂志已成为国际关系学界一个重

要而独立的声音。它以其欧洲起源为基础，经过二十多年

的发展，已成为国际关系界最佳成果的缩影，包括前沿的

理论辩论、当代和过去的学术热点以及理论丰富的实证分

析。

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series of turns away from positivism and towards reflexivity. Cumulatively, this first wave of turns would

denaturalise IR’s state-centric ontology while enshrining reflexivity as a canonical good among critical

scholars. By the mid-1990s, however, these metatheoretical critiques of positivism had produced a substantial

backlash. Charged with fostering an esoteric deconstructivism, a new generation of reflexivists set out to

demonstrate the feasibility of post-positivist empirical research. As a result, IR’s turning also took on a

different form from the 2000s: whereas the first wave of turns had mounted an epistemological and

methodological attack against the positivist mainstream, the second wave set about bringing new ontological

objects under the scrutiny of reflexivist scholars. This shift from anti-positivist to mostly intra-reflexivist

turning was facilitated by the institutionalisation of critical IR as a major subfield of the discipline. It is the

privileged position of reflexivity among critical IR scholars that is the condition of possibility for endless

turning, accentuated by mounting pressures to demonstrate novelty in an increasingly competitive environment.

2. 什么造就了一位发言人？在克里米亚的委托和象征性权力（What makes a

spokesperson? Delegation and symbolic power in Crimea）

Alvina Hoffmann，伦敦玛丽女王大学国际安全讲师

【摘要】本文认为，声称代表某一社会群体发言的发言人无法摆脱委托的结构性困境，即以某人的名

义发言意味着代替某人发言。这种通过承诺授权的委托和授权沉默的形式对承认发言人为有效代表的

群体施加了象征性暴力，而没有认识到其自身可能被剥夺权利。本文基于皮埃尔·布迪厄

(Pierre · Bourdieu) 关于语言和象征权力的社会学著作，对发言人的授权轨迹进行了理论分析。在此过

程中，本文批判性运用了国际关系理论中通过分离发言者与听众来分析政治言论合法性的理论。相反，

本文运用象征性权力的概念重构了发言人与听众的关系，并引入了被代表的类别。当发言人争夺象征

性权力时，他们试图将社会分类强加给社会群体和空间。本文在克里米亚人权政治的背景下阐述了这

些动态，展示了各种发言人如何在言论的“真实性”和人权的“普世性”上进行象征性斗争。最后，本文

提出了新的研究方向以分析缓解发言人问题的创造性策略。

【原文】This article argues that spokespersons who claim to speak on behalf of a social group cannot escape

the structural problem of delegation whereby speaking in someone’s name entails speaking instead of someone.

This form of delegated and authorised silencing through the promise of empowerment imposes symbolic

violence on a group which recognises the spokesperson as a valid representative, without recognising its own

potential disenfranchisement. I build on Pierre Bourdieu’s sociological writings on language and symbolic

power to theorise the trajectories of authorisation of spokespersons. In doing so, I critically engage with

theories in International Relations which rely on a separation between speaker and audience to analyse the

legitimation of political speech. Instead, I reformulate the speaker/audience relation through the concept of

symbolic power and introduce the category of the spoken-for. When spokespersons struggle over symbolic

power, they seek to impose social classificatory categories on social groups and spaces. I illustrate these

dynamics in the context of human rights politics in Crimea, showing how various spokespersons are engaged

in a symbolic struggle over ‘authenticity’ of their speech and the ‘universal’ of human rights. I conclude by

suggesting new lines of inquiry to analyse creative strategies to mitigate the spokesperson problem.

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3. 隐藏的角色：法律专家如何影响国际制度的设计（Hidden figures: how legal experts

influence the design of international institutions）

Nicole De Silva，康考迪亚大学文理学院政治学系助理教授兼学术主任

Anne Holthoefer，圣安塞姆学院助理教授

【摘要】谁的偏好影响了国际制度的设计? 关于国际政治法律化和国际法律制度创建的学术研究大多

采用以国家为中心的视角。然而，现有的研究未能意识到，国家往往将制度设计任务的权力委托给独

立的法律专家，而这些专家的偏好可能与国家的偏好不同。本文构建了一个委托-代理（PA）框架，

用于理论化设计过程中国家（集体委托人）与法律行为者（代理人）之间的关系，并解释法律行为者

如何影响国际制度的设计。委托-代理关系的法律维度增加了集体委托人和代理人之间偏好分歧的可

能性，但也创造了条件，使代理人能伺机推进自己的设计偏好。本文认为，代理人掌握的国家偏好信

息越多，就越能利用其法律专长战略性地选择设计方案并为之辩护，从而最大限度地提高自身偏好和

国家接受的可能性。本文对联合国和非洲联盟关于国际刑事法的两个委托制度设计案例的分析支持了

本文的理论期望。大量的档案和采访数据阐明了代理人关于国家偏好的可变信息如何影响代理人有效

推进其设计偏好的能力。本文的理论揭示了负责设计任务的独立法律专家如何影响制度设计过程和结

果，这对国际政治法律化具有实际和规范意义。

【原文】Whose preferences influence the design of international institutions? Scholarship on the legalization

of international politics and creation of international legal institutions largely adopts a state-centric perspective.

Existing accounts, however, fail to recognize how states often delegate authority over institutional design tasks

to independent legal experts whose preferences may diverge from those of states. We develop a principal–

agent (PA) framework for theorizing relations between states (collective principals) and legal actors (agents)

in the design process, and for explaining how legal actors influence the design of international institutions.

The legal dimensions of the PA relationship increase the likelihood of preference divergence between the

collective principal and the agent, but also create conditions that enable the agent to opportunistically advance

its own design preferences. We argue that the more information on states’ preferences the agent has, the more

effectively it can exploit its legal expertise to strategically select and justify design choices that maximize its

own preferences and the likelihood of states’ acceptance. Our analysis of two cases of delegated institutional

design concerning international criminal law at the United Nations and the African Union supports our

theoretical expectations. Extensive archival and interview data elucidate how agents’ variable information on

states’ preferences affects their ability to effectively advance their design preferences. Our theory reveals how

independent legal experts with delegated authority over design tasks influence institutional design processes

and outcomes, which has practical and normative implications for the legalization of international politics.

4. 国家之外的民族安全化：作为威胁行为体、受威胁对象和安全资源的散居社群

（Securitizing the nation beyond the state: diasporas as threats, victims, and assets）

Yehonatan Abramson，耶路撒冷希伯来大学国际关系系助理教授

【摘要】安全化理论广泛关注跨国问题、行动者和过程。然而，令人惊讶的是，人们很少关注散居社

群（定义为海外公民或海外侨民）的安全化问题。本文通过建立一个分析框架来研究海外侨民的安全

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化问题，重点关注三种话语形态：作为威胁行为体的侨民、作为受威胁对象的侨民和作为安全资源的

侨民。本文基于最近的国家-侨民相关文献，通过对以色列精英话语的分析（从 1948 年到 2022 年），

说明了海外侨民的安全化如何作为一种话语机制，使海外犹太人的域外政策自然化和合法化。因此，

本文通过研究和赋予海外侨民政策制定的主体过程，对国家-侨民关系的结构性和理性解释进行了补

充。在大量安全化学术研究关注试图将“外国人”拒之门外的背景下，本文展示了安全化是如何证明将

某些人引入国外或管理其海外国家身份是合理的。

【原文】Securitization theory has paid extensive attention to transnational issues, actors, and processes.

Surprisingly, however, only little attention has been paid to the securitization of diaspora communities, defined

as overseas citizens or co-nationals abroad. This article fills this gap by developing an analytical framework

to study the securitization of diasporas, focusing on three discursive formations: diasporas as threatening actors,

as objects under threat, or as security resources. Building upon the recent literature on state–diaspora

engagement and drawing on an analysis of Israeli elite discourse (from 1948 to 2022), this article demonstrates

how the securitization of diasporas serves as a discursive mechanism that naturalizes and legitimizes extraterritorial policies towards Jews abroad. Thus, the article complements structural and rational explanations of

state–diaspora engagement by examining the intersubjective process that endows diaspora policymaking with

meaning. Against the backdrop of extensive securitization scholarship that focuses on attempts to keep

“foreigners” out, this article shows how securitization justifies bringing certain people in or governing their

national identity abroad.

5. 叙利亚武装组织集资的法律与政治：国家如何（未能）打击恐怖主义（The law and

politics of funding armed groups in Syria: how states (fail to) counter-terrorism）

Tasniem Anwar，阿姆斯特丹自由大学犯罪学助理教授

【摘要】本文探讨了荷兰政府在 2015 年至 2018 年间支持叙利亚境内所谓温和团体而实施的反恐计划

所引发的政治和法律争议。争议的焦点在于荷兰政府如何定义和支持叙利亚境内的温和派武装组织，

并将其与恐怖组织相区分。本文旨在探讨一问题，并根据欧洲反恐融资法规中关于恐怖主义资金和恐

怖主义组织的现有定义，解读荷兰外交部如何构建和证明其在该计划中部署的对温和团体的物质支持

的定义。本文与国际关系和国际法中有关物质性的争论相联系，探讨了恐怖主义定义产生过程中的物

质-符号实践。实证分析基于对法律专业人士的访谈、政策文件和法庭记录，详细概述了荷兰政府如何

构建恐怖主义和恐怖主义融资的多重甚至相互矛盾的定义。通过这种跨学科的物质性方法和实证分析,

本文提出，关于恐怖主义和恐怖主义融资定义的争议反映了关于西方国家在反恐战争中的知识和责任

的欧洲中心主义假设。尽管实证分析立足于荷兰的背景，但本文的分析对于 2015 年至 2018 年间参与

类似行动的多个欧洲国家以及未来针对恐怖组织的反恐努力都有借鉴意义。

【原文】This article examines the political and legal controversies around a counterterrorism programme

conducted by the Dutch government to support the so-called moderate groups in Syria between 2015 and 2018.

The controversies centred around the question how the Dutch government was able to define and support

armed moderate groups in Syria and distinguish them from terrorist organizations. The objective of the article

is to take up this question and unpack how the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs constructed and justified

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their definition of material support for moderate groups deployed in this programme, against existing

definitions of terrorism funding and terrorist groups embedded in European counterterrorism financing

regulations. Connecting to the debates around materiality in both International Relations and International

Law, this article follows the material-semiotic practices through which definitions of terrorism come into being.

The empirical analysis draws on interviews with legal professionals, policy documents and court transcripts,

and provides a detailed overview of how multiple and even conflicting definitions of terrorism and terrorism

financing are constructed by the Dutch state. Taking this interdisciplinary approach to materiality and based

on the empirical analysis, I propose that this controversy on defining terrorism and terrorism financing reflects

a Eurocentric assumption about the knowledge and responsibilities of the Western state in the War on Terror.

While the empirics are grounded in the Dutch context, my analysis is relevant for multiple European countries

who engaged in similar operations between 2015 and 2018, as well as for future counterterrorism efforts

targeting terrorist groups.

6. 反和平进程的国际动态（The international dynamics of counter-peace）

Oliver P. Richmond，曼彻斯特大学政治系教授

Sandra Pogodda，曼彻斯特大学政治系和平与冲突研究讲师

Gëzim Visoka，都柏林城市大学法律与政府学院和平与冲突研究副教授

【摘要】和平进程与国际秩序是相互依存的：国际秩序为和平进程提供规范框架，而建立和平的工具

及其基本意识形态维护着国际秩序。它们在一定程度上通过满足地方要求以及维持地缘政治平衡来表

明其可行性和合法性。在新兴的多极秩序中，由自由国际秩序主导的国际和平架构(IPA)受到了反和平

进程的挑战。这些进程对国家的性质、国家与社会的关系国际秩序本身提出了越来越多的质疑。本文

研究了地区行为者和大国在参与和平与秩序相关活动或干预时的策略和战术。鉴于国际和平架构和自

由国际秩序的薄弱和不一致，这种竞争导致对国际秩序本身的挑战，往往以社会运动和民间社会网络

的诉求为代价。

【原文】Peace processes and international order are interdependent: while the latter provides the normative

framework for the former, peacemaking tools and their underlying ideology also maintain international order.

They indicate its viability and legitimacy partly by meeting local claims as well as through the maintenance

of geopolitical balances. In the emerging multipolar order, the international peace architecture (IPA),

dominated by the liberal international order (LIO), is contested through counter-peace processes. These

processes contest the nature of the state, state-society relations and increasingly international order itself. This

paper investigates the tactics and strategies of regional actors and great powers, where they engage in peace

and order related activities or interventions. Given the weakness and inconsistency of the IPA and the LIO,

such contestation leads to challenges to international order itself, often at the expense of the claims of social

movements and civil society networks.

7. 信任如何丧失：2021 年联合国粮食系统峰会与联合国粮食治理的合法性丧失（How

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trust is lost: the Food Systems Summit 2021 and the delegitimation of UN food governance）

Felix Anderl，菲利普大学马尔堡校区冲突研究教授

Michael Hißen，泽佩林大学政治、行政与国际关系系研究员

【摘要】社会运动对国际组织的参与方式持怀疑态度。由于担心被收编而丧失真正的政策影响力，他

们越来越倾向于推出合作，从外部对国际组织提出质疑。然而，联合国粮农组织是这一趋势的例外。

它的开放被视为长期对话，促进了关于粮食生产性质的讨论，并且由于它建立了可信的体制机制，活

动家们相信其对农民和农民运动有影响力。因此，粮食主权运动在 2010 年代始终以明显制度化的方

式在联合国粮农组织的框架下展开。但是在 2019 年，当联合国宣布举行粮食系统峰会时，情况发生

了巨大变化。粮食主权运动、许多非政府组织甚至科学家都决定抵制这次峰会，转而组织另一场人民

峰会，并退出在联合国粮农组织长期担任的机构角色。如何解释这一情况呢？本文追溯了自联合国粮

食系统峰会宣布以来到其实施的过程，强调了在这一过程中，损害活动家诚意的几项决定是如何破坏

机构信任的。正如本文详细说明的那样，绕过既有的机制体制，以及运动方的受背叛感，是失去体制

信任的决定性因素。重要的是，联合国粮食系统峰会背景下，实质性和制度性变化交织在一起，不仅

损害了运动对峰会组织者诚信和能力的信任，还激起了运动促使联合国粮食治理非法化的努力。

【原文】Social movements see participation formats of international organizations (IOs) with suspicion. They

increasingly retreat from cooperation to contest IOs from the outside, because they fear co-optation without

real policy impact. However, the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) was an exception to this trend

because its opening up was seen as long-term dialogue facilitating discussions about the nature of food

production, and because it created credible institutional mechanisms that were trusted by activists to give

influence to farmers and peasant movements. Therefore, the food sovereignty movement participated within

the FAO framework in a remarkably institutionalized way throughout the 2010s. But in 2019, when the United

Nations (UN) announced to hold a food systems summit (United Nations Food Systems Summit (UNFSS)),

this changed dramatically. The food sovereignty movement, many non-governmental organizations (NGOs),

and eventually scientists, decided to boycott the summit, instead organizing an alternative Peoples’ Summit,

and withdrawing from long-held institutional roles in the FAO. How can this be explained? This article traces

the process from the announcement of the UNFSS to its implementation, stressing how institutional trust was

damaged by several decisions in the process that undermined the good faith of activists. As we show in detail,

the circumvention of established institutional mechanisms, and the feeling of betrayal on the side of the

movement, was decisive for losing institutional trust. Importantly, a mixture of substantive and institutional

changes in the context of UNFSS not only undermined the movement’s trust into the integrity and ability of

the summit organizers, but thereby also provoked movement efforts to delegitimize UN food governance at

large.

8. 解读公众对中国的外国直接投资的反对：工会、耐心资本和成员对外国直接投资流入

的偏好（Disentangling public opposition to Chinese FDI: trade unions, patient capital, and

members’ preferences over FDI inflows）

Damian Raess，伯尔尼大学全球政治经济学助理教授

2024 年第 3 期（总第 15 期）

103

【摘要】本文研究了工会成员身份是否会因投资者原籍国的不同而影响个人的外国直接投资 (FDI)

偏好。作者认为，外国直接投资的来源国将影响工会成员对外国直接投资的评估，因为它提供了线索，

表明在不同外国投资者的情况下（工会组织的）工人的经济前景会是什么样子。作者认为，外国投资

者的显著特征是他们来自的国家是耐心资本还是无耐心资本的形式。与非会员相比，会员更支持来自

体现耐心资本的国家的外国直接投资。具体而言，作者预计会员对来自耐心资本和来自无耐心资本国

家的 FDI 之间的支持差距（正差距）会随着工会成员资格的增加而增加。相反，来自无耐心资本国家

和来自耐心资本国家的外国直接投资之间的支持差距（正差距）会随着成员资格的增加而减少。来自

瑞士原始调查数据的证据证实了作者的论点。受访者被要求评估来自中国和欧洲（体现耐心资本的实

体）以及来自美国（体现无耐心资本的国家）的外国直接投资。结果显示，欧洲外国直接投资与美国

外国直接投资之间的热情差距随着工会成员数的增加而增加，而美国外国直接投资与中国外国直接投

资之间的热情差距随着成员数的增加而减少。对欧洲大陆工会的报告、文件和证词进行的补充定性分

析显示，工会的观点与其成员的观点一致，这表明工会塑造了其成员的外国直接投资偏好。这些发现

对于回应经济全球化的政治具有重要意义。

【原文】I examine whether union membership affects individual foreign direct investment (FDI) preferences

in ways that vary across investors’ country of origin. I argue that the country of FDI origin will bear upon how

union members assess FDI, because it provides cues about what the economic prospects of (unionized) workers

will look like under different foreign investors. I argue that the salient attribute of foreign investors is whether

they originate from a country that is an important form of patient or impatient capital. Compared with nonmembers, members will be more supportive of FDI from countries embodying patient than impatient capital.

Specifically, I expect the (positive) gap in support between FDI from patient and FDI from impatient capital

countries to increase with union membership. Conversely, I expect the (positive) gap in support between FDI

from impatient versus patient capital countries to decrease with membership. Evidence from original Swiss

survey data corroborates my argument. Respondents were asked to evaluate FDI from China and Europe

(entities embodying patient capital) and from the United States (a country embodying impatient capital). The

results show that the gap in enthusiasm for European FDI versus American FDI increases with union

membership, while the gap in enthusiasm for American FDI versus Chinese FDI decreases with membership.

Complementary qualitative analysis of reports, documents, and testimonies by trade unions in continental

Europe show that their views are in sync with those of their members, suggesting that unions shape their

members’ FDI preferences. The findings have important implications for the politics of backlash against

economic globalization.

9. 爱如何塑造秩序：与国际关系学科的交流（How love orders: an engagement with

disciplinary International Relations）

Liane Hartnett，墨尔本大学国际关系讲师

【摘要】爱在秩序规范性的产生和维持中发挥着重要作用。在历史上，爱被用来构建群体、合法化强

迫和（消）授权。换句话说，爱是情感的粘合剂，将群体紧密联系在一起，将情感定格为行动的动力

和约束，是权力运作不可或缺的一部分。爱可以被调用和操控以实现各种政治目的。通过复杂化关于

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爱作为积极情感的描述, 本文揭示了爱在国际关系学科中被忽视的历史，它是一种意识形态的面具，

掩盖了其在帝国、战争和统治等暴力世界建设项目中的影响。为了说明这一点，本文确定了三种典型

的理想逻辑——黑格尔式、奥古斯丁式和尼采式——这三种逻辑展示了爱的秩序作用，并分析了它们

如何在国际关系领域的三位领军人物——阿尔弗雷德·齐默恩、雷恩霍尔德·尼布尔和汉斯·摩根索的作

品中得到体现。

【原文】Love plays an important role in the normative production and sustenance of order. Historically

implicated in imaginaries of order, it has been evoked to constitute community, legitimate coercion and

(dis)empower. Put differently, love provides the affective glue that binds groups, frames feelings to enable and

constrain action and is integral to the workings of power. Love can be evoked and governed for various

political ends. Complicating accounts of love as a positive emotion, this article uncovers love’s neglected

history in disciplinary International Relations (IR) as an ideological mask that conceals its implication in

violent worldmaking projects of empire, war and domination. To illustrate this, it identifies three ideal-typical

– or Hegelian, Augustinian and Nietzschean – logics that exemplify love’s ordering work and examines how

they find expression in the work of three leading figures of disciplinary IR, namely Alfred Zimmern (1859–

1957), Reinhold Niebuhr (1892–1971) and Hans Morgenthau (1904–1980).

10. 国家之外的民族安全化：作为威胁行为体、受威胁对象和安全资源的散居社群（The

politics of human rights trade sanctions: evidence from the African Growth and

Opportunity Act）

Travis Curtice，德雷克塞尔大学政治学系助理教授

【摘要】学者们认为，将人权条件纳入贸易协定可以改善人权状况。然而作者认为，人权利益可能与

贸易、投资和安全利益发生冲突。作者以《非洲增长和机会法案》为背景对这些观点进行了研究。该

法案是美国于 2000 年为多达 49 个可能符合条件的的撒哈拉以南非洲国家制定的单边贸易优惠计划，

其中包含强有力的人权条件。美国终止该法案受益国地位的决定很大程度上取决于美国的贸易、投资

和安全利益决定。该国的人权记录，包括国家支持的杀戮和其他侵犯人身安全权利的行为，所产生的

影响较不一致且较弱。

【原文】Scholars contend that embedding human rights conditionality in trade agreements can improve human

rights. We argue that human rights interests may collide with trade, investment, and security interests. We

examine these claims in the context of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a unilateral trade

preference program with robust human rights conditions, created in 2000 by the United States for up to 49

potentially eligible sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) states. US decisions to terminate AGOA beneficiary status are

determined strongly by US trade, investment, and security interests. The country’s human rights record,

including state-sponsored killings and other violations of physical integrity rights, has a less consistent and

weaker effect.

【编译：王诗涵】【责任编辑：封欣怡】

2024 年第 3 期（总第 15 期）

105

《国际事务》（International Affairs）

International Affairs，Vol. 100, No. 2, 2024

1. 不止于普京：俄罗斯外交政策中管理的多元主义（More than Putin: managed

pluralism in Russia's foreign policy）

Damian Strycharz，爱丁堡大学政治与国际关系博士研究员

【摘要】俄罗斯对乌克兰的全面侵犯让大多数专家都感到惊讶，但在战争之前，在俄罗斯的公开争论

中有许多声音呼吁对乌克兰和西方国家采取比政府奉行的更强硬的政策。本文对优先考虑外部因素或

是仅关注于普京的解释提出了挑战，并表明审查反对立场、国家媒体和政府的言论对正确理解俄罗斯

外交政策的必要性。本文主张管理的多元主义（由 Harley Balzer 在 2003 年定义）的理念，这尚未用

于分析莫斯科的国际行为，这种理念是一个有用的工具，可以弥补文献中的空缺和揭示俄罗斯外交政

策制定背后的重要机制。因此，本文揭示了一种允许部分声音而消除其他声音的机制，这将俄罗斯的

外交政策引导至特定方向，在这种机制下，做出入侵乌克兰的选择就成为了可能。最后，本文阐明了

观察参与公开辩论的行为者及其主张可能是了解俄罗斯未来外交政策的线索。更广泛地说，本文指出

了管理的多元主义对我们理解其他国家外交政策的政策影响和理论上的好处。

【原文】The Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine took most experts by surprise, but before the war, there

were numerous voices in the Russian public debate calling for much tougher policies towards Ukraine and the

West than the ones pursued by the government. This article challenges explanations that prioritize external

factors or focus solely on President Putin and shows that examining opposition, state media and government

discourses is necessary to understand Russia's foreign policy properly. The article contends that the concept

of managed pluralism (defined by Harley Balzer in 2003), which has not yet been used in the analysis of

Moscow's international behaviour, is a useful tool that can address the gap in the literature and shed light on

important mechanisms behind Russia's foreign policy-making. Consequently, the article reveals mechanisms

that, by allowing certain voices while eliminating others, steer Russia's foreign policy in a specific direction,

which in this case made the invasion of Ukraine possible. Finally, it indicates that observing actors admitted

to the public debate and their propositions may be a clue to the direction of Russia's future foreign policy.

《国际事务》（International Affairs）是国际关系领域的一

流学术期刊，也是多学科综合性学术期刊。本刊于 1992 年

由伦敦皇家国际事务研究所查塔姆学院（Chatham House）

创立，内容来源广泛，力图囊括业内专家、学术新秀对重

点、热点问题的最新思考。2022 年期刊影响因子为 4.5，

在 96 个国际关系类刊物中位列第 7 名。

106

More broadly, this article points to policy implications and theoretical benefits of managed pluralism for our

understanding of other states' foreign policies.

2. 从乐观到怀疑自由主义：在危机中重塑欧盟外交政策（From optimist to sceptical

liberalism: reforging European Union foreign policy amid crises）

Christine Nissen，丹麦国际问题研究所研究员

Jakob Dreyer，哥本哈根大学博士研究员

【摘要】俄罗斯入侵乌克兰为欧盟带来了谴责和辩护。欧盟的政策被谴责为是安于现状的、天真的和

贪婪的。然而，当欧洲领导人做出了支持乌克兰的协调反应时，这场战争也证明了欧盟作为一个自由

主义项目的合理性。这场危机导致对欧盟的支持激增、空前的跨政策领域的合作以及与欧盟东部邻国

的新入盟谈判。为了了解这种转变，本文认为这场危机促使欧盟成为了一个持怀疑态度的自由主义参

与者。怀疑自由主义具有对国际秩序报以消极态度的特点，对欧洲在其中的角色有自我批评的理解，

并愿意进行干预，包括使用军事手段，以解决政治困境。这种转变改变了欧盟领导人之前持乐观自由

主义通过调解和相互依存追寻自由和繁荣的方式。文章区分了理想和行动，认为自由主义理想保持不

变，但持怀疑态度的观点意味着追求这些理想的不同行动。本文的论点挑战了长期以来对“正常 vs 规

范权力欧洲”的学术争论，这些争辩建立在对欧盟外交政策过于二元化的评估基础之上，未能抓住当

代动态及其引起的困境。

【原文】Russia's invasion of Ukraine brought both condemnation and to the European Union. EU policies

were condemned for being complacent, naive and greedy. However, when European leaders conducted a

coordinated response backing Ukraine, the war also vindicated the EU as a liberal project. The crisis has led

to a surge in support for the EU, unprecedented cooperation across policy areas and new accession negotiations

with the EU's eastern neighbours. To understand this shift, the article argues that crisis has catalysed the EU

becoming a sceptical liberal actor. Sceptical liberalism is characterized by a bleak view on the trajectory of

the international order, a self-critical understanding of Europe's role in it, and a willingness to intervene,

including with military means, to tackle political predicaments. The transition changes EU leaders' previous

optimistic liberal approach of pursuing peace and prosperity though mediation and interdependence.

Distinguishing between ideals and actions, the article argues that liberal ideals remain intact, but a sceptical

outlook implies different actions to pursue those ideals. The article's argument challenges longstanding

scholarly debates on ‘normal versus normative power Europe’, which build on an excessively bifurcated

assessment of EU foreign policy that fails to capture contemporary dynamics and the dilemmas they cause.

3. 中国、国际竞争和主权债务重组的僵局：超越地缘政治（China, international

competition and the stalemate in sovereign debt restructuring: beyond geopolitics）

Shahar Hameiri，昆士兰大学政治与国际学院教授

Lee Jones，玛丽女王大学政治和国际关系系教授

2024 年第 3 期（总第 15 期）

107

4. “手足兄弟”：法国，盎格鲁文化圈和澳英美联盟（BrOthers in Arms’: France, the

Anglosphere and AUKUS）

Jack Holland，利兹大学政治学院副教授

Eglantine Staunton，澳大利亚国立大学国际关系系高级讲师

【摘要】法国重要的外交政策对子，例如法国和英国以及法国和美国之间的双边关系，一直得到实证、

历史和政策层面的分析。然而，法国和大盎格鲁地区的关系很少被考虑或是概念化。本文对重要时期

法国和盎格鲁地区的关系进行了理论分析。2021 年 AUKUS 被宣布：这是一个建立在澳大利亚、英国

和美国三国之间的安全伙伴关系；但引人注目的是，AUKUS 将法国排除在外，尽管法国也倾向于使

用军事力量捍卫自由国际秩序。为了分析这个重要的当代案例，本文对 540 篇政治和媒体文本进行计

算机辅助的比较性话语分析，并对 37 次精英访谈进行了主题分析。首先，本研究通过“手足兄弟”的

概念，对结盟政治进行了新颖的理论化，这为建构主义和本体安全理论作出了贡献，因此通过双重身

份标记将盟友敌对地结合在一起。其次，为了对外交政策批判性研究和国家身份研究作出贡献，本文

将法国-盎格鲁的关系定位在联盟认同谱的最厚端，通过互补、竞争和共同构成的例外主义将彼此联

系在一起。最后，为了对外交政策和联盟政策研究作出贡献，文本的分析将 AUKUS 置于法国-盎格鲁

关系的长期不稳定时期。

【原文】Important French foreign policy dyads, such as relations between France and the United Kingdom

and France and the United States, have consistently been subject to empirical, historical and policy analysis.

However, France's relationship with the broader Anglosphere is rarely considered or conceptualized. This

article theorizes France's relationship with the Anglosphere at a pivotal historical juncture. The 2021

announcement of AUKUS, a security partnership between Australia, the UK and the US, spectacularly

excluded France despite a shared proclivity to use military force in defence of liberal international order. To

analyse this vital contemporary case, we undertake a comparative, computer-aided discourse analysis of 540

political and media texts, triangulated with thematic analysis of 37 elite interviews. First, contributing to

constructivist and ontological security theory, we develop a novel theorization of alliance politics, generally,

through the concept of ‘brOthers in arms’, whereby a double identity inscription binds allies antagonistically

together. Second, contributing to critical studies of foreign policy and research on national identity, we locate

France–Anglosphere relations, specifically, towards the thick end of an alliance identity spectrum, held

together in mutual alterity by complementary, competing and co-constitutive exceptionalisms. Third,

contributing to studies of foreign policy and alliance politics, our analysis situates AUKUS within the fractious

longue durée of France–Anglosphere relations.

5. 对人类世的感受：全球南方的情感关系和生态激进主义（Feeling for the Anthropocene:

affective relations and ecological activism in the global South）

Adarsh Badri，昆士兰大学国际研究系博士研究生

【摘要】情绪如何影响全球南方的生态激进主义？尽管对国际关系中生态激进主义研究的兴趣持续增

长，但是由于主要关注西方社会，从全球南方获得见解的研究并不多。与近期“关系”背景相反，国际

关系转向“情感”和“人类世”研究，本文探讨了情感能够如何对全球南方生态激进主义产生影响。本文

108

试图超越占主导地位的理性主义技术官僚对人类世条件的修正，并将“情感关系”概念化为定位和维持

人类与自然之间关系的框架。本文认为在国际关系中的“国际性”是社会的理性层面；同时，情绪行为

能够作为这些社会关系的供应者。本文从实证的角度考察了在印度 Chipko（抱树）运动中生态激进主

义的历史见解。本文认为，情感作为非暴力实践（拥抱树木、无声示威、抗议口号、街头表演、歌曲

和表演）成为印度奇 Chipko 运动中生态激进主义的抵抗场所。最后，本文解释了情感关系如何维系

人类、自然和国家。

【原文】How do emotions shape ecological activism in the global South? Despite growing interest in

researching ecological activism in International Relations (IR), there hasn't been much work that draws

insights from the global South due to the predominant focus on western societies. Against the backdrop of the

recent ‘relational’, ‘emotional’ and ‘Anthropocene’ turns in IR scholarship, this article examines how emotions

can contribute to ecological activism in the global South. The article seeks to move beyond the dominant

rationalist technocratic fixes to the Anthropocene condition and conceptualize the ‘affective relations’ as a

frame for situating and sustaining relations between humans and nature. It argues that the ‘international’ in IR

is a relational sphere of society—and emotions act as the purveyor of those social relations. Empirically, this

article examines historical insights from ecological activism in the Chipko (tree-hugging) movement in India.

The article argues that feelings as the non-violent practice (in their hugging of trees, silent demonstrations,

protest slogans, street plays, songs and performances) become sites of resistance in ecological activism in

India's Chipko movement. Finally, the article explains how affective relations sustain humans, nature and the

state.

6. 透过民主镜头误解缅甸（Misunderstanding Myanmar through the lens of democracy）

David Brenner，萨塞克斯大学国际关系系高级讲师

【摘要】本文以 2021 年缅甸军事政变及其暴力后果作为起点，以分析西方观察家通常将缅甸政治描

述为民主斗争的主流视角。本文展现了仅关注于政治系统的问题不足以解释政治进程和冲突动态，以

及它如何冒着淡化国家过去和存在的民族主义、民族冲突和种族灭绝的风险。一种后殖民时代的解读

建议对在缅甸的冲突和专制主义找寻解决方案需要对现代民族国家本身的角色提出质疑。本分析有助

于最近的研究，该研究发现“冲突与和平研究”从一些冲突中发展出理论，反映了西方利益如何旨在为

全球政策和实践提供信息的领域中塑造学术选择。本文通过探讨这种选择性的偏见并不是简单的西方

普遍利益（或缺乏利益）的结果，这为知识生产作出了贡献。它还与我们对世界各国和地区的兴趣和

理解的框架有关。研究全球南方“被遗忘的冲突”不仅需要转向专业的文献，同时也需要超越以西方为

中心的参考框架。

【原文】This article takes the 2021 military coup in Myanmar and its violent aftermath as a starting point for

analysing the dominant lens through which western observers commonly narrate the country's politics as a

struggle for democracy. It shows how focusing on questions of the political system is insufficient for

explaining political processes and conflict dynamics, and how it risks sanitizing the country's past and presence

of nationalism, ethnic conflict and genocide. A postcolonial reading suggests that finding solutions to conflict

and authoritarianism in Myanmar demands questioning the role of the modern nation-state itself. This analysis

2024 年第 3 期（总第 15 期）

109

contributes to recent research which has found that Conflict and Peace Studies develops theories from some

conflicts over others, reflecting how western interests shape academic choices in a field that aims to inform

policy and practice worldwide. This article contributes to this debate on knowledge production by arguing that

this selectivity bias is not simply a function of general western interest (or lack thereof). It is also linked to the

frames that govern our interest in and understanding of countries and regions worldwide. Studying ‘forgotten

conflicts’ in the global South not only necessitates a turn to specialist literature, but also demands moving

beyond Eurocentric frames of reference.

7. 临时联盟如何使国际机制度非制度化（How ad hoc coalitions deinstitutionalize

international institutions）

Malte Brosig，金山大学国际关系系副教授

John Karlsrud，挪威国际事务研究所研究员

【摘要】随着临时特设联盟（AHCs）激增，特别是在非洲大陆，两个问题变得清晰起来。首先，它们

会对现存的体制安全格局带来什么后果？其次，如何从概念上捕捉和探索 AHCs 与国际组织一起运作

而不是在国际组织内部运作的趋势？为了回答这些问题，本文仔细研究了打击博科圣地的多国联合特

遣部队（MNJTF)）以及其与非洲联盟不断变化的关系。通过案例研究和对政策以及学术文献的回顾，

本文提出了去制度化的概念及其特征。本文确定了去制度化的三个特征：AHCs 可以避开政策制定的

标准程序，削弱已建立的机构脚本以及转移资源分配。文章通过审查欧洲联盟和联合国的政策和做法，

详细介绍了 AHCs 如何如何为改变国际和平与安全行动融资的做法做出贡献。总之，本文揭示了去制

度化的过程以及确定了这一过程的三种形式的基本原理：缺乏问题解决能力、有限的适应性和路径依

赖。

【原文】As ad hoc coalitions (AHCs) proliferate, particularly on the African continent, two questions

crystallize. First, what consequences do they bring about for the existing institutional security landscape? And

second, how can the trend of AHCs operating alongside instead of inside international organizations be

captured and explored conceptually? To answer these questions, we closely examine the Multinational Joint

Task Force (MNJTF) fighting Boko Haram and its changing relationship to the African Union. Through the

case-study and a review of policy and academic literatures, the article launches the concept of

deinstitutionalization and how it can be characterized. We identify three features of deinstitutionalization:

AHCs can bypass standard procedures for decision-making processes, whittle down established institutional

scripts and shift resource allocations. We detail how the AHCs contribute to changing practices of financing

international peace and security operations, with an examination of European Union and United Nations

policies and practices. In sum, the article unwraps processes of deinstitutionalization and identifies three forms

of rationales for this process: lack of problem-solving capacity, limited adaptability and path dependency.

8. 米歇尔·福柯视角下的实用主义反思：双边关系的治理（Rethinking pragmatism

through the lens of Michel Foucault: governance of bilateral relations）

110

Suban Kumar Chowdhury，拉杰沙希大学国际关系系副教授

【摘要】实用主义，回应了“去中心化的国际关系”，培养了解决范式间争端的分析折衷主义。约翰·杜

威的实用主义与建构主义无缝结合，提供了细致入微的见解。然而，在双边关系中，实用主义往往被

限制在现实主义的框架中，缺乏理解治理的分析严谨性。在本文，作者通过强调关系性权利动态和非

中立知识来挑战这一点，同时介绍了根植于“拼凑”的“平衡实用主义”以实现细致入微的治理。利用福

柯的见解，作者重新定义了权力-知识相互作用中的治理实用主义，以印度-孟加拉国土地边界协议

(LBA)为例作为阐释。LBA 成功挑战了现实主义的权利范式，承认了福柯式动态对加强务实平衡的的

关键性作用。这通过敏锐的治理丰富了建构主义范式。在 LBA 中，通过福柯视角解读实用主义强调

了双边治理的影响，强调了在福柯框架中的分析折衷主义和实用性以应对地缘政治挑战。它主张在国

际关系中采取更加包容的分析方法。理解“平衡实用主义”对实践者来说至关重要，这挑战了以国家为

中心的范式，强调通过权力和知识的变革交叉点进行细致入微的治理。正如在 LBA 中看到的那样，

将实用主义解释为福柯式的平衡行为，对国际关系有着广泛的影响，敦促学者们将福柯的动态结合起

来，对实用主义平衡进行细致的全球分析。

【原文】Pragmatism, responding to the call for ‘decentring International Relations’, fosters analytical

eclecticism for resolving inter-paradigmatic disputes. John Dewey's pragmatism aligns seamlessly with

constructivism, offering nuanced insights. However, in bilateral relations, pragmatism is often confined within

realist frameworks, lacking analytical rigor for understanding governmentality. In this article, the author

challenges this by emphasizing relational power dynamics and non-neutral knowledge, introducing ‘balancing

pragmatism’ rooted in ‘bricolage’ for nuanced governance. Leveraging Foucauldian insights, the author

reconceptualizes governance pragmatism within the power-knowledge interplay, illustrated by the India–

Bangladesh Land Boundary Agreement (LBA). The LBA's success challenges realist power paradigms,

recognizing the pivotal role of Foucauldian dynamics in enhancing pragmatic balancing. This enriches the

constructivist paradigm with discerning governance. Interpreting pragmatism through a Foucauldian lens in

the LBA underscores implications for bilateral governance, highlighting analytical eclecticism and

adaptability within a Foucauldian framework to address geopolitical challenges. It advocates for a more

inclusive analytical approach in international relations. Understanding ‘balancing pragmatism’ is crucial for

practitioners, challenging the state-centric paradigm and emphasizing nuanced governance through the

transformative intersection of power and knowledge. Interpreting pragmatism as a Foucauldian-informed

balancing act, as seen in the LBA, holds broad implications for IR, urging scholars to integrate Foucault's

dynamics for nuanced global analyses of pragmatic balancing.

【编译：王涵婧】

【责任编辑：封欣怡】

2024 年第 3 期（总第 15 期）

111

《国际研究评论》（Review of International Studies）

Review of International Studies， Vol.50, No.2, 2024

1. 机制复合体的协商：追踪正在形成的机制复合体（Negotiating regime complexity:

Following a regime complex in the making）

Arne Langlet，维也纳大学政治系博士生

Alice Vadrot，维也纳大学政治系副教授

【摘要】本文重点分析了新国际协议的谈判过程而非结果，拓展了对机制复合体的理解和实证研究。

虽然关注谈判的结果对分析机制复合体的形成和界定很重要，但是国家谈判中的场域却被忽视了。本

文试图通过两种方式丰富全球治理研究的方法论工具箱：1、阐明在条约谈判的社会空间中，国家与

国际组织之间的动态关系是如何促使机制复合体形成的；2、社会网络分析（SNA）如何辅助揭示这

些关系中的模式。本文将参与观察（法）与协作活动民族志研究（CEE）和社会网络分析相结合，从

而基于实证材料说明如何界定机制复合体，以及分析国际组织谈判中的互动。本文将此方法论应用于

海洋生物多样性治理，使用在《国家管辖范围以外区域海洋生物多样性条约》（BBNJ）的三次政府间

会议（IGCs）（2018—2019 年）期间收集到的观测数据。本文结合此方法的优缺点以及对未来机制复

合体研究的影响来讨论研究结果。

【原文】This article broadens the understanding and empirical study of regime complexes by shifting the

focus from the negotiation outcome to the processes of negotiating new international agreements. Although

they are important to regime-complex formation and delimitation, the sites where states negotiate new

agreements are rather neglected. We aim to enhance the methodological toolbox available to scholars studying

global governance in two ways: (1) by demonstrating how dynamic relationships between states and

international organisations (IOs) unfolding within the social space of international treaty negotiations

contribute to regime-complex formation; and (2) how social network analysis (SNA) can help us to detect

patterns in these relationships. Combining participant observation and collaborative event ethnography (CEE)

with social network analysis, we present new empirical material illustrating how we delimited a regime

complex and how IOs interact throughout the negotiation process. We applied our methodology to the case of

《国际研究评论》（Review of International Studies）是由

剑桥大学出版社代表英国国际研究协会出版且同行评审

的国际关系学术期刊，其前身为 British Journal of

International Studies (1975-1980)。该期刊致力于反映全球

政治的性质变化和新兴的政治挑战，旨在为国际社会搭建

一个可供辩论的平台用以讨论当下紧迫的全球议题。2020

年该期刊的影响因子为 2.73。

112

marine-biodiversity governance and use observational data collected during three intergovernmental

conferences (IGCs) (2018–19) on a new treaty for the conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity

beyond national jurisdiction (BBNJ) for our analysis. We discuss the results in relation to our approach’s

strengths and weaknesses and implications for future research on regime complexity.

2. 人际关系的力量：国际机构与人权倡导的社会法律分析（The power of interpersonal

relationships: A socio-legal approach to international institutions and human rights

advocacy）

Nina Reiners，奥斯陆大学法学院人权与社会科学系副教授

【摘要】在既有研究的基础上，本文进一步提出并阐明以下论点，即个人之间的人际关系有助于人权

倡导在国际机构中取得成功。从“倡导理论”和社会法律研究中出发，本文将研究重点从集体形式的倡

导转移到国际机构中倡导者个体之间，探究人际关系对人权发展的重要性。本文引入三步式分析框架，

1）描述倡导网络中关键参与者的分布，并进行 2）过程追踪和 3）个人传记研究。本文将该框架应用

于联合国人权条约机构制定规范的三个案例，其结果突出了人际关系在人权制定过程中的作用，也为

跨国精英、人权倡导和国际法政治学等方面的学术研究提供启示。

【原文】This article further develops and illustrates the argument that relationships between individuals help

to explain the success of human rights advocacy in international institutions. Drawing from advocacy theory

and socio-legal studies, I shift the attention from collective forms of advocacy to the importance of

interpersonal relationships of advocates with individuals in international institutions to influence the

development of human rights. I introduce a framework consisting of three analytical steps – mapping the key

actors in a network, process-tracing, and biographical research – and apply the framework to three cases of

norm development by a United Nations human rights treaty body. My findings highlight the power of

interpersonal relationships for the making of human rights, and they inform scholarship on transnational elites,

human rights advocacy, and the politics of international law.

3. 全球政治中的国际记忆：支持或反对联合国干预利比亚和叙利亚（International

memories in global politics: Making the case for or against UN intervention in Libya and

Syria）

Kathrin Bachleitner，牛津大学国际发展部（难民研究中心）国际关系研究员

【摘要】本文重点关注记忆在联合国理事会关于人道主义干预辩论中的作用和影响。本文认为，历史

经验及其教训是讨论抽象的国际准则和原则时的解释手段。本文认为“国际记忆”意指在一组国家之间

融合的从过去获得的意义和教训。本文实证案例探讨了“阿拉伯之春”后联合国代表如何利用极权主义

/法西斯主义以及殖民主义记忆，口头呼吁对利比亚和叙利亚采取干预。研究发现，支持或反对人道主

义干预的人对这些记忆及其教训持有不同的解释。然而，无论在哪种情况下，在实施作为人道主义干

预基础的抽象国际原则、准则和权利时，记忆都为国家提供了重要的规范性指导。

2024 年第 3 期（总第 15 期）

113

【原文】This paper is interested in the role and function of memories in United Nations Security Council

debates about humanitarian intervention. It posits that historical experiences and their lessons serve as

interpretative devices for the abstract international norms and principles under discussion. The paper speaks

of ‘international memories’ where the meaning and lessons derived from the past coalesce among a group of

states. Empirically, its case study explores how the memories of totalitarianism/fascism and colonialism were

employed in United Nations (UN) representatives’ verbal pleas to intervene in Libya and Syria after the Arab

Spring. It finds that those who supported or opposed humanitarian intervention held different interpretations

of these memories and their lessons. In each case, however, memories provided essential normative guidance

to states when it came to implementing the abstract international principles, norms, and rights that underlie

humanitarian intervention.

4. 跨国宣传的双螺旋纠缠：对 LGBTI 权利的道德保守主义抵制（The double-helix

entanglements of transnational advocacy: Moral conservative resistance to LGBTI rights）

Phillip M. Ayoub，伦敦大学学院政治学与公共政策学院教授

Kristina Stoeckl，意大利 Luiss 大学社会学系教授

【摘要】性取向和性别认同边缘化人群（LGBTI）的权利在许多国家得到了改善。很大程度上，这些

成就可以追溯到“螺旋模式”中的各种因素，包括 LGBTI 权利运动的跨国动员、少数先驱政府的行动

以及一些国际组织（IOs）人权框架的进步。然而，某个跨国倡议网络（TAN）试图通过重释国际人权

法来主张其权利，致使反对 LGBTI 权利的抵抗运动正在全球日益兴起。基于十年的田野调查和对

LGBTI、反 LGBTI、国家和国际组织行为者的 240 次访谈，本文探讨了保守的倡议网络如何运作，包

括人员构成及其如何构建议程。本文认为，保守倡议网络采用了使用了许多获得 LGBTIQ 人群广泛认

可的跨国工具，同时也符合权利扩散的螺旋模型，但处于本文称之为双螺旋的进程当中。正如双螺旋

结构所示，对立的跨国倡议网络之间存在着互惠关系，必须在互动空间中相互引导，从而使用相关的

策略和工具来实现相互排斥的目的。

【原文】The rights of people who are marginalised by their sexual orientation and gender identity (LGBTI)

have improved in many countries. Largely, these achievements can be traced back to the ‘spiral model’ of

factors including transnational mobilisation by the LGBTI rights movement, the actions of a few pioneering

governments, and advances in the human rights frameworks of some international organisations (IOs). Yet a

rising and increasingly globally connected resistance works against LGBTI rights. It rests predominantly in

the hands of a transnational advocacy network (TAN) that attempts to lay claim to international human rights

law by reinterpreting it. Drawing on a decade of fieldwork and 240 interviews with LGBTI, anti-LGBTI, and

state and IO actors, this article explores how the conservative TAN functions, in terms of who comprises it

and how its agenda is constructed. We argue that this TAN has employed many of the same transnational tools

that garnered LGBTIQ people their widespread recognition. It also conforms to the spiral model of rights

diffusion, but in a process we call a double helix. As the double-helix metaphor suggests, rival TANs have a

reciprocal relationship, having to navigate each other’s presence in an interactive space and thus using related

strategies and instruments for mutually exclusive ends.

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5. 超越女性代表人数：承认女性在全球治理中的领导作用（Beyond the numbers on

women’s representation: Recognition of women’s leadership in global governance）

Hortense Jongen，阿姆斯特丹自由大学国际关系助理教授

【摘要】全球治理的玻璃天花板被打破了多少？要回答这个问题，我们需要超越女性代表人数，研究

女性在何种程度上被视为全球治理中激励人心且富有远见的领导者。本文从性别角度分析了人们对全

球多利益相关方倡议（multistakeholder initiatives）中激励人心和富有远见的领导力的看法。基于对一

项前沿的多利益相关方倡议——互联网名称与数字地址分配机构（ICANN）——参与者的 467 次访

谈，本文提出四项发现：1、受访者认为符合上述条件的领导者人数中男性多于女性，这一差异大致

对应于领导岗位中女性的比例；2、受访者在解释为什么认为某些人符合上述条件时，倾向于将更多

的领导特质归于女性而非男性；3、对于 ICANN 的男性和女性领导者而言，女性和男性的领导特质都

受到赞赏；4、与男性受访者相比，女性受访者认为符合上述条件的女性领导者数量更多。这些研究

结果对领导力的性别观念和全球治理中榜样的重要性提出了新的见解，也为全球多利益相关方安排中

对领导力的要求和期望提供了亟需的启示。

【原文】To what extent has the glass ceiling in global governance been shattered? To answer this question,

we need to look beyond the numbers on women’s representation and study how far women are perceived as

inspiring and visionary leaders in global governance. This article offers an analysis of perceptions of inspiring

and visionary leadership in global multistakeholder initiatives from a gender perspective. Based on 467

interviews with participants in a leading multistakeholder initiative, the Internet Corporation for Assigned

Names and Numbers (ICANN), it presents four findings: (1) respondents identify more men than women as

inspiring and visionary leaders, with the difference roughly corresponding to the share of women in leadership

roles; (2) respondents tend to ascribe more leadership attributes to women than to men when explaining why

they find them inspiring and visionary; (3) both feminine and masculine leadership traits are appreciated in

relation to both men and women leaders at ICANN; (4) female respondents identify more women as inspiring

and visionary leaders than male respondents. These findings contribute novel insights into gendered

perceptions around leadership and the importance of role models in global governance. They also shed muchneeded light on the demands and expectations from leadership in global multistakeholder arrangements.

6. 政府间气候变化专门委员会中的行为体、活动与权威类型（Actors, activities, and

forms of authority in the IPCC）

Hannah Hughes，卡迪夫大学国际关系系高级讲师

【摘要】全球环境评估研究呼吁国际组织更具反思性，以应对参与、观点的包容性和对其所提供信息

的政策领域的响应性方面的挑战。然而，政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）研究中对反思性的呼吁

较少，以及缺乏检验常规概念如何通过关注科学和政治而非其他社会动态来制约学术理解。本文提出，

学术反思性能够推动发展新的分析方法，为不断变化的组织结构提供实用的见解。通过反思对 IPCC

的理解，本文提供了一个关于行为体、活动和权威类型新分析框架。通过应用该框架，本文阐述了 IPCC

2024 年第 3 期（总第 15 期）

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在专家小组、主席团、技术支持单位、秘书处和作者内部和之间的社会秩序，揭示了哪些行为体基于

何种权威对气候变化的写作拥有象征性权力。这一分析框架对各组织进行的细致分析揭示了政府间关

系如何能够和正在重塑主导地位，同时也可能为这些组织的管理者寻求挑战统治力量的途径提供线索。

【原文】Scholarship on global environmental assessments call for these organisations to become more

reflexive to address challenges around participation, inclusivity of perspectives, and responsivity to the policy

domains they inform. However, there has been less call for reflexivity in IPCC scholarship or closer

examination of how routine concepts condition scholarly understanding by focusing on science and politics

over other social dynamics. In this article, I suggest that scholarly reflexivity could advance new analytical

approaches that provide practical insights for changing organisational structures. Through reflecting on my

understanding of the IPCC, I develop actors, activities, and forms of authority as a new analytical framework

for studying international organisations and knowledge bodies. Through its application, I describe the social

order of the IPCC within and between the panel, the bureau, the technical support units, the secretariat and the

authors, which is revealing of which actors, on the basis of what authority, have symbolic power over the

writing of climate change. The fine-grained analysis of organisations enabled by this analytical framework

reveals how dominance can and is being remade through intergovernmental relations and potentially, identifies

avenues that managers of these bodies can pursue to challenge it.

7. 国家之后，人性之前？在伊拉克、阿富汗和巴勒斯坦的合法性元政治学与国际刑事法

院（After states, before humanity? The meta-politics of legality and the International

Criminal Court in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Palestine）

Janis Grzybowski，里尔天主教大学国际关系讲师

Filipe dos Reis，哥本哈根大学国际关系讲师

【摘要】在关于国际事务、特别是国际刑事法院（ICC）司法化和非司法化的辩论中，合法性与政治

性、国家主权与国际性之间的区别仍然存在争议。现实主义和法律主义讨论了国际刑事法对国际政治

的改造，而社会学和批判法学视角则强调了国际刑事法的政治性。本文重点关注（国际）法律与政治

之间的区别如何产生影响，并非将其视为实质上对立的领域，而是作为国际刑事法院自身在考虑特定

情况时偶一为之且灵活划定的界限。在司法利益、司法管辖范围或互补性的应用等看似技术性的阐述

中，这些援引和再现关键界限的元政治学不仅反映了国际刑事法院的特殊权威，也反映了法院在推动

国际刑法为人类服务而非国家服务时所处的困境，再现了（国际）法律与政治之间的区别。本文通过

重新审查国际刑事法院对三项涉嫌国际罪行指控的判决来说明其元政治，包括在伊拉克的英国军队、

在阿富汗的塔利班、政府军和美军，还有在约旦河西岸、东耶路撒冷和加沙的以色列和巴勒斯坦。

【原文】In the debate on the (de-)judicialisation of international affairs and the International Criminal Court

(ICC) specifically, the distinctions between legality and politics and between state sovereignty and the

international remain contested. While realist and legalist approaches discuss the transformation of international

politics by international criminal law, sociological and critical-legal perspectives instead highlight the politics

of international criminal law. In this contribution, we focus on how the distinctions between (international)

law and politics matter, not as substantively opposed spheres, but as boundaries that the ICC itself contingently

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and flexibly draws when considering particular situations. These meta-politics of invoking and reproducing

key boundaries in seemingly technical elaborations of the interest of justice, the scope of its jurisdiction, or

the application of complementarity reflect the Court’s particular authority but also its predicament of pushing

for an international criminal law serving humanity, rather than states, while reproducing the distinctions

between (international) law and politics. We illustrate the Court’s meta-politics by revisiting three recent

decisions of the ICC to (not) investigate alleged international crimes committed by British forces in Iraq, by

the Taliban, governmental, and US forces in Afghanistan, and by Israeli authorities and Palestinian groups in

the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza.

8. 欧盟的概念政治和应对危机的韧性（Conceptual politics and resilience-at-work in the

European Union）

Jonathan Joseph，布里斯托大学政治与国际关系教授

Ana E. Juncos，布里斯托大学政治与国际关系教授

【摘要】国际性危机往往从会根本上改变我们对世界的看法，以及在世界中所处的位置，例如新冠疫

情和俄乌冲突。危机凸显了欧盟在本体论和认识论方面的不确定性和不安全感，因此其尤其容易受到

这些事态发展的影响。欧盟的韧性（resilience）转向始于 2016 年欧盟全球战略，其旨在为外部冲击做

好准备，加强欧盟的恢复能力，但自那时起，韧性概念发生了转变。近年来，我们看到欧盟开始自我

反思，放弃了韧性的激进方面。因此，出现了一个悖论——欧盟面临的问题越复杂，就越远离韧性概

念中的复杂性逻辑。通过行动中的概念和这些概念在外部环境中反映变化的方式，以及权力联盟和制

度路径依赖，本文试图研究这一概念的转变，并以《战略指南》（Strategic Compass）和欧盟复苏与韧

性基金（Recovery and Resilience Facility）为例来探讨这一论点。

【原文】International crises, most recently the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, often

radically change our view of the world and our place within it. The European Union (EU) has been particularly

impacted by these developments because these crises have accentuated some of its ontological and

epistemological uncertainties and insecurities. While the EU’s resilience turn initiated by the EU Global

Strategy of 2016 aimed at strengthening the EU’s ability to prepare and recover from external shocks and

crises, since then, the concept of resilience has undergone a transformation. In recent years, we have seen the

EU turning back in on itself and abandoning the radical aspects of resilience. Hence a paradox has emerged –

the more complex the problems faced by the EU, the more it turns away from the logics of complexity present

in the idea of resilience. In this article, we examine this conceptual shift through the lenses of concepts in

action and the way these have reflected changes in the external context, but also power coalitions and

institutional path dependencies. This argument will be explored by examining the recently adopted Strategic

Compass and the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF).

9. 对心灵的侵犯：战争和压迫中的父母伤害（Violations of the heart: Parental harm in

war and oppression）

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117

Rebekka Friedman，伦敦国王学院高级讲师

Hanna Ketola，伦敦国王学院博士后研究员

【摘要】本文探讨了“父母伤害”（parental harm）——当父母面临（可能）失去子女的威胁时所受到的

伤害。在各种历史背景下，操纵和割断父母与子女之间的关系在战争和压迫中发挥了核心作用，对父

母的伤害具有长期和普遍的影响，并给看护及其社区带来复杂的影响。尽管其影响严重，但国际关系

中关于父母的伤害及其影响的研究却很少。本文通过两个框架，即“分离的伤害”和“影响抚养能力的

伤害”，来对“父母伤害”进行概念化，并从性别层面对父母伤害的延续和影响进行理论化。因此，本文

深化了将家庭作为一个性别化制度的女性主义理解，该制度塑造了战争行为并使种族压迫制度化。本

文对父母伤害的概念为亲密关系、家庭、国家权力和实践之间的关系提供了新的见解。本文通过两个

例子来阐述概念论证：美国前南北战争时期奴隶制中对家庭的控制和操纵，以及将泰米尔族儿童作为

绑架目标的斯里兰卡失踪事件。这些例证展示了父母伤害在不同背景和形式的暴力中的普遍存在。

【原文】This article examines ‘parental harm’ – a harm that occurs when a parent loses or faces the threat of

losing a child. We contend that the manipulation and severing of relationships between parents and children

has played a central role in war and oppression across historical contexts. Parental harm has long-term and

pervasive effects and results in complex legacies for carers and their communities. Despite its grave impact,

there is little research within International Relations into parental harm and understanding of its effects. We

conceptualise parental harm through two frames – the ‘harm of separation’ and ‘harm to the ability to parent’

– and theorise gendered dimensions of how it is perpetuated and experienced. As such, we advance feminist

understandings of family as a gendered institution that shapes the conduct of war and institutionalises

racialised oppression. Our conception of parental harm offers novel insights into the relationship between

intimate relations, the family, and state power and practices. We illustrate our conceptual arguments through

two examples: the control and manipulation of family in antebellum slavery in the United States and the

targeting of Tamil children in disappearances in Sri Lanka. These examples demonstrate the pervasiveness of

parental harm across contexts and forms of violence.

【编译：杨鲁华】

【责任编辑：封欣怡】

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《政治分析》（Political Analysis）

Political Analysis， Vol.32, No.2, 2024

1. 广义核正则最小二乘法（Generalized Kernel Regularized Least Squares）

Qing Chang，匹兹堡大学政治学博士研究生

Max Goplerud，匹兹堡大学政治学助理教授

【摘要】核正则化最小二乘法（KRLS）是一种流行的方法，可用于灵活估计变量间可能存在的复杂

关系模型。然而，由于两个原因，对许多研究人员来说它的实用性受到了限制。首先，现有方法不够

灵活，无法将 KRLS 与随机效应、非规则化固定效应或非高斯结果等理论性扩展结合起来。其次，即

使是大小适中的数据集，估算工作的计算量也非常之大。本文通过引入广义 KRLS（gKRLS）来解决

这两个问题。本文认为，KRLS 可以被重新表述为一个分层模型，从而可以方便地进行推断和模块化

模型构建，其中 KRLS 能够与随机效应、样条曲线和非规则化固定效应一起使用。在计算方面，还实

现了随机草图，以显著加快估计速度，但同时也会对估计质量产生有限的影响。本文证明，gKRLS 可

以在 1 分钟内拟合数以万计的观测数据集。此外，需要拟合十几次模型的最先进技术（如元学习器）

也可以快速估计。

【原文】Kernel regularized least squares (KRLS) is a popular method for flexibly estimating models that may

have complex relationships between variables. However, its usefulness to many researchers is limited for two

reasons. First, existing approaches are inflexible and do not allow KRLS to be combined with theoretically

motivated extensions such as random effects, unregularized fixed effects, or non-Gaussian outcomes. Second,

estimation is extremely computationally intensive for even modestly sized datasets. Our paper addresses both

concerns by introducing generalized KRLS (gKRLS). We note that KRLS can be re-formulated as a

hierarchical model thereby allowing easy inference and modular model construction where KRLS can be used

alongside random effects, splines, and unregularized fixed effects. Computationally, we also implement

random sketching to dramatically accelerate estimation while incurring a limited penalty in estimation quality.

We demonstrate that gKRLS can be fit on datasets with tens of thousands of observations in under 1 min.

《政治分析》（Political Analysis）发表同行评审的文章，

这些文章提供了政治方法论一般领域的原创性和重大进

展，包括定量和定性方法论方法。它是政治方法论学会和

美国政治科学协会政治方法论分会的官方期刊。

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Further, state-of-the-art techniques that require fitting the model over a dozen times (e.g., meta-learners) can

be estimated quickly.

2. 分离下的假设检验（Hypothesis Tests under Separation）

Carlisle Rainey，佛罗里达州立大学政治学系副教授

【摘要】政治学中通常会出现二元解释变量与二元结果完全预测分离的情况。在这种情况下，方法论

专家通常建议采用惩罚最大似然法或贝叶斯估计法。但研究人员可能难以确定适当的惩罚或先验分布。

本文研究表明，研究人员可以使用标准频率工具轻松检验有关模型系数的假设。虽然流行的 Wald 检

验在分离条件下会产生误导性（甚至无意义）的 p 值，但作者的研究表明，似然比检验和分数检验的

行为与通常的方式相同。因此，在分离条件下，研究人员无需使用惩罚或先验信息，就能利用标准频

率工具得出有意义的 p 值。

【原文】Separation commonly occurs in political science, usually when a binary explanatory variable perfectly

predicts a binary outcome. In these situations, methodologists often recommend penalized maximum

likelihood or Bayesian estimation. But researchers might struggle to identify an appropriate penalty or prior

distribution. Fortunately, I show that researchers can easily test hypotheses about the model coefficients with

standard frequentist tools. While the popular Wald test produces misleading (even nonsensical) p-values under

separation, I show that likelihood ratio tests and score tests behave in the usual manner. Therefore, researchers

can produce meaningful p-values with standard frequentist tools under separation without the use of penalties

or prior information.

3. 国际关系中的二元聚类（Dyadic Clustering in International Relations）

Jacob Carlson，哈佛大学经济系博士生

Trevor Incerti，阿姆斯特丹大学政治经济学助理教授

P. M. Aronow，耶鲁大学政治学系副教授

【摘要】国际关系中的定量实证研究通常依赖于二元数据。标准分析技术并没有考虑到二元体通常并

不相互独立的事实。也就是说，当二元体共享一个组成成员（例如，一个共同的国家）时，它们可能

在统计上是相互依赖的，或“聚类”的。本文开发出了考虑到这种依赖性的二元聚类稳健标准误差

（DCRSE）。使用这些二元聚类稳健标准误差，作者重新分析了 2014 年 1 月至 2020 年 1 月期间发表

在《国际组织》上的所有以二元数据为特征的实证文章。本文发现，已发表的关键解释变量的标准误

差平均约为二元聚类稳健标准误差的一半，这表明二元聚类导致研究人员严重低估了不确定性。然而，

在使用二元聚类稳健标准误差时，大多数（67%）具有统计学意义的研究结果仍然具有统计显著性。

因此，得出的结论是，考虑二元聚类既重要又可行，并提供了 R 和 Stata 软件以促进在未来研究中使

用二元聚类稳健标准误差。

【原文】Quantitative empirical inquiry in international relations often relies on dyadic data. Standard analytic

techniques do not account for the fact that dyads are not generally independent of one another. That is, when

dyads share a constituent member (e.g., a common country), they may be statistically dependent, or “clustered.”

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Recent work has developed dyadic clustering robust standard errors (DCRSEs) that account for this

dependence. Using these DCRSEs, we reanalyzed all empirical articles published in International Organization

between January 2014 and January 2020 that feature dyadic data. We find that published standard errors for

key explanatory variables are, on average, approximately half as large as DCRSEs, suggesting that dyadic

clustering is leading researchers to severely underestimate uncertainty. However, most (67% of) statistically

significant findings remain statistically significant when using DCRSEs. We conclude that accounting for

dyadic clustering is both important and feasible, and offer software in R and Stata to facilitate use of DCRSEs

in future research.

4. 视觉框架无监督和半监督分析框架（A Framework for the Unsupervised and SemiSupervised Analysis of Visual Frames）

Michelle Torres，加州大学洛杉矶分校政治学系助理教授

【摘要】本文向政治科学界介绍了一种通过无监督和半监督方法分析视觉材料内容的框架。详细介绍

了计算机视觉领域的一种工具——视觉词袋（BoVW）的实施情况，该工具用于定义和提取“标记”，

使研究人员能够建立一个图像-视觉词矩阵，从而模仿文本分析中的文档-术语矩阵。这种还原技术是

社会科学家所熟悉的几种工具的基础，例如允许对图像进行探索性和半监督分析的主题模型。与其他

深度学习技术相比，该框架在透明度、可解释性和领域知识的包容性方面都有所提高。作者通过建立

一个新颖的视觉结构主题模型来说明 BoVW 的范围，该模型实质上侧重于从中美洲移民大篷车的图

片中识别视觉框架。

【原文】This article introduces to political science a framework to analyze the content of visual material

through unsupervised and semi-supervised methods. It details the implementation of a tool from the computer

vision field, the Bag of Visual Words (BoVW), for the definition and extraction of “tokens” that allow

researchers to build an Image-Visual Word Matrix which emulates the Document-Term matrix in text analysis.

This reduction technique is the basis for several tools familiar to social scientists, such as topic models, that

permit exploratory, and semi-supervised analysis of images. The framework has gains in transparency,

interpretability, and inclusion of domain knowledge with respect to other deep learning techniques. I illustrate

the scope of the BoVW by conducting a novel visual structural topic model which focuses substantively on

the identification of visual frames from the pictures of the migrant caravan from Central America.

5. 从大规模新闻档案中进行人脸检测、跟踪和分类，以分析关键政治人物（Face

Detection, Tracking, and Classification from Large-Scale News Archives for Analysis of

Key Political Figures）

Andreu Girbau，东京国家信息研究所数字内容和媒体科学研究部研究员

Tetsuro Kobayashi，早稻田大学政治经济学院教授

Benjamin Renoust，大阪大学数据性科学研究所博士

Yusuke Matsui，东京大学信息科学研究生院信息通信工学系助理教授

Shin’ichi Satoh，东京大学信息科学与技术研究生院教授

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【摘要】随着大规模新闻档案的日益普及和计算机视觉技术的发展，分析政治人物在大规模新闻档案

中的出现变得越来越重要。本文提出了一种基于深度学习的方法，该方法结合了人脸检测、跟踪和分

类，尤其独特的是，它在锁定新的目标人物时不需要任何重新训练。用户只需提供目标个体的少量图

像，就能对其进行可靠的检测、跟踪和分类。本文对两个跨度 10 到 20 年的新闻档案中的著名政治人

物进行了广泛验证，（一个包含三个美国有线电视新闻，另一个包含两个日本主要新闻节目），结果

一致表明了所提出方法的高性能和灵活性。这些代码可以随时向公众开放。

【原文】Analyzing the appearances of political figures in large-scale news archives is increasingly important

with the growing availability of large-scale news archives and developments in computer vision. We present

a deep learning-based method combining face detection, tracking, and classification, which is particularly

unique because it does not require any re-training when targeting new individuals. Users can feed only a few

images of target individuals to reliably detect, track, and classify them. Extensive validation of prominent

political figures in two news archives spanning 10 to 20 years, one containing three U.S. cable news and the

other including two major Japanese news programs, consistently shows high performance and flexibility of

the proposed method. The codes are made readily available to the public.

6. 实施很重要：评估比例风险测试的性能（Implementation Matters: Evaluating the

Proportional Hazard Test’s Performance）

Shawna K. Metzger，布法罗大学政治学系助理教授

【摘要】政治学家通常使用 Grambsch 和 Therneau（1994，Biometrika 81，515-526）普遍存在的 Schoenfeld

检验来诊断 Cox 持续时间模型中的比例风险违规情况。然而，一些统计软件包已经改变了检验的计算

方法。传统的实现方法对检验的方差-协方差矩阵做了简化假设，而新的方法则没有。最新的研究表

明，检验的性能会根据其实施情况而有所不同。作者使用蒙特卡洛模拟来更彻底地调查测试的实施是

否会影响其性能。令人惊讶的是，作者发现较新的实现方法在相关协变量上的表现非常之差，误判率

远远超过 5%，相比之下，传统的实现方法在同样的情况下却不存在此类问题。这一令人震惊的发现

为研究人员提出了新的、复杂的问题。就目前而言，研究人员在其简化假设有可能得到满足的情况下

应当倾向于使用传统的实现方法，但也必须注意，这种实现方法的误报率在指定错误的模型中可能会

很高。

【原文】Political scientists commonly use Grambsch and Therneau’s (1994, Biometrika 81, 515–526)

ubiquitous Schoenfeld-based test to diagnose proportional hazard violations in Cox duration models. However,

some statistical packages have changed how they implement the test’s calculation. The traditional

implementation makes a simplifying assumption about the test’s variance–covariance matrix, while the newer

implementation does not. Recent work suggests the test’s performance differs, depending on its

implementation. I use Monte Carlo simulations to more thoroughly investigate whether the test’s

implementation affects its performance. Surprisingly, I find the newer implementation performs very poorly

with correlated covariates, with a false positive rate far above 5%. By contrast, the traditional implementation

has no such issues in the same situations. This shocking finding raises new, complex questions for researchers

moving forward. It appears to suggest, for now, researchers should favor the traditional implementation in

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situations where its simplifying assumption is likely met, but researchers must also be mindful that this

implementation’s false positive rate can be high in misspecified models.

7. 解释招募极端主义：贝叶斯分层案例对照方法（Explaining Recruitment to Extremism:

A Bayesian Hierarchical Case–Control Approach）

Roberto Cerina，阿姆斯特丹大学逻辑、语言和计算研究所媒体研究系

Christopher Barrie，爱丁堡爱丁堡大学社会学系讲师

Neil Ketchley，牛津大学政治与国际关系系政治学副教授

Aaron Y. Zelin，兰迪斯大学政治系访问研究学者

【摘要】谁加入了极端主义运动？由于调查技术的不可行，而选择性样本又无法提供反事实，因此回

答这一问题在方法上面临诸多挑战。加入极端组织的新兵可以被分配到相关单位，但这很容易受到生

态推理问题的影响。在本文中，阐述了一种结合调查和生态学方法的技术。本文提出的贝叶斯分层病

例对照设计使研究者能够识别个人层面和背景因素，这些因素影响了极端主义招募的模式和发生率，

同时考虑了空间自相关、罕见事件和污染。本文将来自九个中东和北非国家的伊斯兰国（ISIS）战士

样本与新兵加入该运动前不久进行的代表性人口调查相匹配，从而对方法进行了实证验证。结果表明，

二十岁出头、受过大学教育的较高地位人士更有可能加入伊斯兰国。而关于相对剥夺感的证据则比较

复杂。随附的 ExtremeR 软件包为应用研究人员提供了实施该方法的功能。

【原文】Who joins extremist movements? Answering this question is beset by methodological challenges as

survey techniques are infeasible and selective samples provide no counterfactual. Recruits can be assigned to

contextual units, but this is vulnerable to problems of ecological inference. In this article, we elaborate a

technique that combines survey and ecological approaches. The Bayesian hierarchical case–control design that

we propose allows us to identify individual-level and contextual factors patterning the incidence of recruitment

to extremism, while accounting for spatial autocorrelation, rare events, and contamination. We empirically

validate our approach by matching a sample of Islamic State (ISIS) fighters from nine MENA countries with

representative population surveys enumerated shortly before recruits joined the movement. High-status

individuals in their early twenties with college education were more likely to join ISIS. There is more mixed

evidence for relative deprivation. The accompanying extremeR package provides functionality for applied

researchers to implement our approach.

8. 福克斯新闻对冠状病毒疫情（COVID-19）期间健康行为的影响（The Effect of Fox

News on Health Behavior during COVID-19）

Elliott Ash，Sergio Galletta，Dominik Hangartner，苏黎世联邦理工学院人文、社会和政治科学系

Matteo Pinna，Yotam Margalit，特拉维夫大学政治学与国际事务学院教授

【摘要】在 2020 年冠状病毒（COVID-19）大流行的最初几周，福克斯新闻频道提出了一种怀疑论，

以淡化该病毒带来的风险。本文发现，这种叙述产生了重大影响：在福克斯新闻收视率较高的地区（由

于频道定位的随机变化而产生的外生因素），人们不太可能采取旨在保持社交距离的行为（例如待在

家里），并且防疫商品的消费也更少（例如清洁产品、洗手液和口罩）。通过使用原始调查数据，本

2024 年第 3 期（总第 15 期）

123

文发现福克斯新闻的影响不仅来自其长期以来对科学的不信任立场，还来自于将 COVID-19 威胁最小

化的特定节目内容。综上所述，研究结果表明，媒体报道中的错误信息会对观众的信念和行为产生重

大影响，即使在事关重大的情况下也是如此。

【原文】In the early weeks of the 2020 coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the Fox News Channel advanced

a skeptical narrative that downplayed the risks posed by the virus. We find that this narrative had significant

consequences: in localities with higher Fox News viewership—exogenous due to random variation in channel

positioning—people were less likely to adopt behaviors geared toward social distancing (e.g., staying at home)

and consumed fewer goods in preparation (e.g., cleaning products, hand sanitizers, and masks). Using original

survey data, we find that the effect of Fox News came not merely from its long-standing distrustful stance

toward science, but also due to program-specific content that minimized the COVID-19 threat. Taken together,

our results demonstrate the significant impact that misinformation in media coverage can exert on viewers’

beliefs and behavior, even in high-stakes situations.

9. 交易自由：根据联合数据估计 COVID-19 政策偏好（Trading Liberties: Estimating

COVID-19 Policy Preferences from Conjoint Data）

Felix Hartmann，Ferdinand Geissler，Heike Klüver，Johannes Giesecke， 柏林洪堡大学社会科学系

Macartan Humphreys，柏林洪堡大学的名誉教授，“制度与政治不平等”研究小组主任

【摘要】调查实验是衡量政策偏好的重要工具。研究人员经常依靠政策属性水平的随机分配来估计不

同类型的平均边际效应。然而，研究人员往往对受访者如何权衡不同的政策维度感兴趣。本文利用对

德国 10000 多名受访者进行的一项联合实验，以研究 COVID-19 危机期间受访者对个人自由和公共福

利的偏好。本文使用预先设定的结构模型，估计了政策理想点和无差异曲线，以评估公民愿意为了公

共福祉而牺牲自由的条件。记录了人们接受权利限制的广泛意愿，以及疫苗接种状况的显著异质性。

大多数公民都接种了疫苗，并强烈支持对自由进行限制，以应对极端条件——特别是当他们自己接种

疫苗时就可以免受这些限制。而未接种疫苗的少数人，无论疫情有多严重，他们都希望自由不受限制。

这些一揽子政策影响了人们对政府的信任度，而接种疫苗和未接种疫苗的公民对政府的信任度正好截

然相反。

【原文】Survey experiments are an important tool to measure policy preferences. Researchers often rely on

the random assignment of policy attribute levels to estimate different types of average marginal effects. Yet,

researchers are often interested in how respondents trade-off different policy dimensions. We use a conjoint

experiment administered to more than 10,000 respondents in Germany, to study preferences over personal

freedoms and public welfare during the COVID-19 crisis. Using a pre-registered structural model, we estimate

policy ideal points and indifference curves to assess the conditions under which citizens are willing to sacrifice

freedoms in the interest of public well-being. We document broad willingness to accept restrictions on rights

alongside sharp heterogeneity with respect to vaccination status. The majority of citizens are vaccinated and

strongly support limitations on freedoms in response to extreme conditions—especially, when they vaccinated

themselves are exempted from these limitations. The unvaccinated minority prefers no restrictions on freedoms

124

regardless of the severity of the pandemic. These policy packages also matter for reported trust in government,

in opposite ways for vaccinated and unvaccinated citizens.

【编译：邹梓轩】

【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

《剑桥国际事务评论》（Cambridge Review of International Affairs）

Cambridge Review of International Affairs， Vol. 37, No. 2, 2024

1. 作为朝鲜公共外交工具的宣传照片：对金正恩效应的实验分析（Propaganda

photographs as a tool of North Korean public diplomacy: an experimental analysis of the

Kim Jong-un effect）

Olli Hellmann，新西兰怀卡托大学政治学和国际关系高级讲师

Kai Opperman，德国开姆尼茨理工大学国际政治学教授

【摘要】越来越多的研究表明，像其他国家一样，朝鲜也十分在意自己在国际上的形象。然而，到目

前为止，人们对朝鲜的战略努力在改善其在外国民众形象方面的效果知之甚少。作为解决这一差距的

第一步，本文对美国成年人的代表性样本（N = 800）进行了严格的调查实验，以证明由朝鲜的官方媒

体朝鲜中央通讯社（KCNA）制作和发布的金正恩的宣传照片成功地改善了一些人对朝鲜的看法，尽

管只是在政治知识有限的受众中。通过提供证据证明新闻照片是有效的战略传播工具，本文也对媒介

公共外交的一般学术研究做出了原创和重要贡献，迄今为止，这些学术研究很少关注视觉媒体作为形

象管理工具。

【原文】A growing body of research shows that the pariah regime of North Korea—as other countries too—

cares about how it is perceived internationally. However, so far, we know very little about how effective North

Korea’s strategic efforts are in improving its image among foreign audiences. As a first step toward addressing

《剑桥国际事务评论》（Cambridge Review of International

Affairs）是一份同行评审期刊，发表关于国际事务的创新

学术成果。其涵盖社会科学领域，包括国际关系、历史、

法律、政治经济学、地区研究、发展研究和性别研究。它

致力于采用多样化的方法和方法，并鼓励学术界和政策制

定者提交多学科和跨学科的贡献。其 2021 年的影响因子

为 2.492，在 96 种国际关系期刊中排名第 33。

2024 年第 3 期（总第 15 期）

125

this gap, we employ a rigorous survey experiment among a representative sample of US adults (N = 800) to

demonstrate that propaganda photographs of Kim Jong-un—produced and distributed by the regime’s official

mouthpiece, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA)—succeed in improving perceptions of North Korea,

albeit only among audiences with limited political knowledge. By providing evidence that news photographs

are effective strategic communication instruments, our paper also makes an original and significant

contribution to general scholarship on mediated public diplomacy, which has until now paid little attention to

visual media as a tool of image management.

2. 从中国视角看俄罗斯在中东的“机会主义”（An opportunistic Russia in the Middle

East, a view from China）

Andrea Ghiselli，复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院助理教授

【原文】As Sino-American competition and Russo-American tensions continue to rise, many believe that

China and Russia have established an increasingly well-coordinated division of labour to undermine the United

States. Yet, this discussion has long neglected the analysis of Sino-Russian relations in the Middle East despite

the importance of that region. Hence, this article investigates how Russian actions there are perceived in China

through the analysis of the debate among Chinese foreign policy experts. Russia is seen as an opportunistic

actor whose behaviour is only partially consistent with Chinese interests. However, problems related to

China’s own Middle East policy and the pressure caused by the rivalry with the United States in Asia greatly

limit China’s capability to adopt a more assertive approach. These findings prompt important considerations

about the dynamics of the triangular Sino-Russian-American relations. They also help us to understand

Chinese foreign policy and the evolution of world politics better.

3. 唐纳德·特朗普与国际组织的生存战略：机构行为体何时才能应对生存挑战？

（Donald Trump and the survival strategies of international organisations: when can

institutional actors counter existential challenges？）

Hylke Dijkstra，荷兰马斯特里赫特大学政治学系的副教授

Laura von Allwörden，荷兰马斯特里赫特大学政治学系的博士候选人

Leonard A. Schuette，荷兰马斯特里赫特大学政治学系博士生

Giuseppe Zaccaria，荷兰马斯特里赫特大学政治学系的博士候选人

【摘要】特朗普政府给许多国际组织带来了前所未有的挑战。本文分析了国际组织的应对能力，并解

释了其机构行动者所采取的生存策略的差异。本文认为，领导力、组织结构、能力和外部网络影响着

机构行动者能否制定和实施应对生存挑战的措施。本文提供了北大西洋公约组织（NATO）、《联合

国气候变化框架公约》（UNFCCC）和世界贸易组织（WTO）的证据，说明了机构行动者在对特朗普

采取生存策略方面的能力差异。北约官员公开利用特朗普在责任分担问题上的挑战，同时在对俄政策

上悄悄地保护联盟不受特朗普的影响。联合国气候变化框架公约》（UNFCCC）官员认为美国退出《巴

黎协定》是不可避免的，并专注于通过与非国家行为体结盟来防止美国进一步退出。世贸组织官员缺

乏制定战略对策的领导力和组织结构。

126

【原文】The Trump administration posed an unprecedented challenge to many international organisations

(IOs). This article analyses the ability of IOs to respond and explains variation in the survival strategies pursued

by their institutional actors. It argues that leadership, organisational structure, competences and external

networks affect whether institutional actors can formulate and implement responses to existential challenges.

Providing evidence from the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and World Trade Organisation (WTO), this article shows how

institutional actors varied in their ability to pursue survival strategies toward Trump. NATO officials publicly

leveraged the Trump challenge on burden-sharing while quietly shielding the alliance from Trump on Russia

policy. UNFCCC officials considered United States withdrawal from the Paris Agreement to be inevitable and

focused on preventing further withdrawals through coalitions with non-state actors. WTO officials lacked the

leadership and organisational structure to formulate a strategic response.

4. 透视跨大西洋（错误）信任：不对称、抛弃和联盟凝聚力（Trans-atlantic (mis)trust

in perspective: asymmetry, abandonment and alliance cohesion）

Matti Pesu，芬兰国际事务研究所的首席研究员

Ville Sinkkonen，芬兰国际事务研究所的博士后研究员

【摘要】本文以北约为重点，阐明了信任在联盟中的作用。本文将信任作为维持联盟凝聚力和长久性

的核心因素，从而在关于信任和联盟理论的国际关系学术研究之间架起一座桥梁。北约在其整个历史

中一直以不对称的信任关系为特征，欧洲比美国更容易叛变。这意味着，大西洋两岸对所有联盟中的

互惠承诺结构，以及所固有的被遗弃的恐惧有着不同的感受，这对特定危机如何导致（错误）信任的

波动产生了影响。欧洲人对美国的长期承诺和扩展威慑力怀有不信任，而美国人则怀疑欧洲人是否忠

于美国的领导，是否愿意分担联盟的负担。与此同时，由共同利益、制度、相互依存和趋同身份培养

起来的普遍信任将盟国紧密联系在一起。本文随后利用这些见解分析了特朗普就任总统后，美国和欧

洲之间的不信任达到了历史性的高峰。尽管出现了意料之外的动荡，但总统任期并没有导致跨大西洋

关系中信任的彻底崩溃，更不用说北约了。

【原文】This article clarifies the role of trust in alliances with a focus on NATO. We bridge IR scholarship

on trust and alliance theory by dealing with trust as a central factor in maintaining alliance cohesion and

longevity. NATO has, throughout its history, been characterised by an asymmetric trusting relationship, with

Europe being more vulnerable to defection than its American counterpart. This means that a fear of

abandonment, intrinsic to the structure of reciprocal commitment in all alliances, has been felt differently on

the opposite sides of the Atlantic, with implications for how specific crises have led to a fluctuation in

(mis)trust. Whereas the Europeans have harboured mistrust regarding the longevity of the US commitment

and extended deterrence, the Americans have doubted the Europeans’ faithfulness to US leadership and

willingness to share the alliance’s burdens. Simultaneously, general trust – cultivated by shared interests,

institutions, interdependence and converging identities – has bound the allies together. The article then uses

these insights to analyse the Trump presidency, which marked an historic spike in mistrust between the US

2024 年第 3 期（总第 15 期）

127

and the Europeans. Despite the unforeseen tumult, the presidency did not result in the definitive collapse of

trust in the trans-Atlantic relationship, let alone NATO.

5. 阿拉伯起义对土耳其外交政策的影响：安卡拉的地区强国幻想（The legacy of the

Arab uprisings on Turkey’s foreign policy: Ankara’s regional power delusion）

Osman Bahadir Dinçer，德国波恩国际冲突研究中心（BICC）高级研究员

【摘要】阿拉伯剧变后，土耳其推行了一项好高骛远的地区领导议程，这似乎与其基本能力不符。现

在回过头来看，阿拉伯动乱后有足够的证据表明，土耳其的实力与土耳其统治精英的强硬言论并不相

符，他们声称该地区应按照他们的形象进行改造。然而，土耳其的外交政策并没有根据形势进行调整。

相反，土耳其的语气更加强硬。有大量经验证据表明，土耳其领导层在该地区的野心是不可持续的，

那么为什么土耳其的中东政策没有进行彻底改革呢？本文从多个定性数据来源出发，认为至少有两个

因素可以解释这一悖论：（1）过分自信导致了眩光效应；（2）统治精英的文明视角低估了传统的国

际关系参数。

【原文】In the aftermath of the Arab upheavals, Turkey pursued an overambitious regional leadership agenda

that appeared incompatible with its underlying capabilities. In retrospect, there was sufficient evidence in the

wake of the Arab upheavals that Turkey’s power capacity did not match the assertive rhetoric used by Turkish

ruling elites that the region should be remade in their image. However, Turkish foreign policy was not finetuned to the situation. On the contrary, Turkey increased the assertiveness of its tone. In the face of ample

empirical evidence pointing to the unsustainability of Turkish leadership’s ambitions in the region, why did

an overhaul not take place in its Middle East policies? Drawing from multiple qualitative data sources, this

study argues that at least two factors explain this paradox: (i) overconfidence that led to glaze-over effects and

(ii) the civilisational perspective of the ruling elite, which underestimated conventional international relations

parameters.

【编译：宋欣蔚】

【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

128

《中国国际政治季刊》（The China Journal of International Politics）

The China Journal of International Politics， Vol.17, No.1, 2024

1. 寻求地位：1970-2020 年联合国演讲中的中国和美国（In Search of Status: China and

the USA in United Nations Speeches, 1970–2020）

Joseph M Parent，美国圣母大学政治学系教授

Paul K MacDonald，美国韦尔斯利学院政治学系教授

【摘要】中国处于什么国际地位？这个问题的答案对中国在国际争端中的权利、责任和风险接受度具

有重大影响。尽管对地位的定义存有争议，但人们普遍认为，地位是由社会建构的，是与同类国家相

较而言的概念，因此很难衡量。本文旨在通过运用 1970-2020 年联合国一般性辩论发言中的文本数据

来解决定义和测量的难题。这有助于研究中国在提及自己时所使用的言辞、他人在提及中国时所使用

的言辞，以及这些言辞对于美国而言的体现。与传统观点相反，本文发现，中国既没有比同类国家更

在意地位，也没有随着时间的推移而更加在意地位，更没有随着时间的推移而获致地位。这对世界政

治的影响是复杂的，但也表明在可预见的未来，地位不会成为冲突的主要原因。

【原文】What is China’s status? The answer has major repercussions for China’s rights, responsibilities, and

risk acceptance in international disputes. Although definitions of status are contested, there is broad agreement

that it is socially constructed and relative to peer states, which makes measuring it difficult. We aim to address

definitional and measurement problems by using text as data from United Nations General Debates speeches,

1970–2020. This allows one to see the language China uses to refer to itself, the language by which others

refer to China, and how that compares to the USA. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that China is

not more status obsessed than its peer, is not more status obsessed over time, and is not gaining in status over

time. The implications for world politics are complex but suggest that status will not be a primary cause of

conflict in the foreseeable future.

《中国国际政治季刊》（The China Journal of International

Politics）创刊于 2006 年，2012 年进入 SSCI，迄今仍是中

国大陆主办的唯一一份政治学 SSCI 专业期刊。自创刊以

来，CJIP 坚持发表原创性学术研究成果，重点推动国际关

系理论创新和中国对外关系方面的研究，发表了诸多国内

外知名学者的文章。CJIP 发表的文章在东亚、欧洲和北美

三地学者间保持了较好的平衡，在促进国际关系理论多元

化发展方面发挥了独特作用。2022 年该刊影响因子为 2.0，

在 96 份国际关系类 SSCI 期刊中名列第 39，是亚洲地区

排名最高的国际关系类 SSCI 期刊。

2024 年第 3 期（总第 15 期）

129

2. 各自为政？非洲当地华人、世界银行援助与外国直接投资（Paving Their Own Road?

Local Chinese and World Bank Aid and Foreign Direct Investment in Africa）

Samuel Brazys，爱尔兰都柏林大学政治与国际关系学院副教授

Yoo Sun Jung，爱尔兰都柏林大学政治与国际关系学院助理教授

【摘要】中国逐渐成为撒哈拉以南非洲地区的主要援助国和经济合作伙伴，这不禁引发了人们的疑问：

中国在该地区所做努力的目的和影响是否出于自利的商业动机？尽管有充分的理由认为，一般来说，

对外援助可以通过改善基础设施、制度或人力资本环境和/或作为一个地区是否存在风险的信号，使一

个地区对投资更具吸引力，但也有理由怀疑，中国的援助可能是在为中国企业的投资“铺路”。为了进

行研究，本文利用本地化地理参照数据的空间和时间变化，发现总体上有力地支持了地方援助促进当

地外国直接投资（FDI）的观点。然而，本文也发现一些证据表明，与来自第三方国家的 FDI 相比，

中国的援助促进了本国的 FDI；但这种差异效应在中国的 FDI 对世界银行援助的反应以及美国援助与

FDI 之间的关系中也是可见的，这表明中国的 FDI 可能只是伴随任何援助，其援助与外国直接投资之

间的关系在双边援助国中并不特殊。

【原文】China’s emergence as a major donor and economic partner to sub-Saharan Africa has prompted

questions if the aims and impacts of China’s efforts in the region are driven by self-serving commercial motives.

While there are strong reasons to think that the foreign aid may make a location more attractive to investment,

generally, by improving the infrastructural, institutional, or human capital environment and/or by serving as a

signal of a location’s risk, there is also reason to suspect that Chinese aid may be “paving the way” for

investment by Chinese firms. To investigate, this paper uses spatial and temporal variations in localized, georeferenced data to find a strong overall support that local aid boosts local foreign direct investment (FDI).

However, we also find some evidence that Chinese aid boosts its own FDI compared to FDI from third-party

countries; but this differential effect is also visible with the Chinese FDI’s response to the World Bank aid as

well as in the relationship between both aid and FDI from the USA, suggesting that the Chinese FDI may

simply be following any aid and that the relationship between its aid and FDI is not exceptional among bilateral

donors.

3. 中国的发展中国家地位之辩：全球经济治理中的地缘经济学和“公私分化”

（Contesting China’s Developing Country Status: Geoeconomics and the Public–Private

Divide in Global Economic Governance）

Clara Weinhardt，荷兰马斯特里赫特大学艺术与社会科学学院国际关系助理教授

Johannes Petry，德国法兰克福歌德大学国家资本金融研究项目首席研究员

【摘要】新兴经济体在地缘政治上的崛起导致了对发展中国家地位边界的争论和重新谈判。老牌强国

向新兴经济体施压，迫使其放弃发展中国家地位及其在全球体制中带来的利益。本文分析了中美地缘

经济竞争背景下的中国发展中国家地位（再）谈判，涉及全球经济的两个核心领域——金融和贸易。

研究表明，无论是由私营行为体还是公共行为体负责的地位划分，都会影响中国地位之辩的结果。当

私营部门扮演核心角色时，中国更有可能在美国的压力下捍卫其发展中国家地位，而这些过程会因决

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策过程制度化方式而受到弱化。因而本文的两个案例研究表明，地位分类等监管过程会影响国际政治

中地缘经济竞争的结果。这些发现还为地缘经济转向的背景下，国家与非国家行为体在全球治理中的

权力关系提供了新的视角：“公私分化”可以作为一个重要的背景因素，影响国际经济秩序更多地向美

国或中国的地缘经济战略靠拢的可能性。

【原文】The geopolitical rise of emerging economies has led to contestations and renegotiations of the

boundaries of the developing country status. Established powers put pressure on emerging economies to give

up this status and the benefits it comes with in global regimes. In this article, we analyse the (re)negotiation of

China’s developing country status within the context of US–China geoeconomic competition with respect to

two core areas in the global economy—finance and trade. We show that whether private or public actors are

responsible for status classification influences the outcomes of contestation over China’s status. When private

sector actors are central, China is more likely able to defend its developing country status against US pressure.

We also find that these processes are mitigated by how decision-making processes are institutionalised. Our

two case studies thus illustrate that regulatory processes such as status classification influence the outcomes

of geoeconomic competition in international politics. These findings also shed new light on the power of states

versus non-state actors within global governance amidst the geoeconomic turn: the public–private divide can

serve as an important context factor that influences the probability of the international economic order to cater

more towards US or Chinese geoeconomic strategies.

4. 制度建设如何塑造大国选边：基于制度视角的中俄伙伴关系（How InstitutionBuilding Shapes Great Power Alignment: An Institutional Perspective on the China–

Russia Partnership）

Björn Alexander Düben，吉林大学公共外交学院助理教授

【摘要】中俄关系在后冷战时代蓬勃发展。尽管中俄关系已引起学术界的广泛关注，但在过去三十年

中促成双边关系缓和的许多潜在因素仍未得到探讨。本文探讨了这一进程中“两国之间制度联系的发

展”这一变量所发挥的作用。在 20 世纪 90 年代中期之前，双边制度基本不存在，如今已迅速发展成

为一个由委员会和小组委员会、工作组以及其他制度化交流组成的密集网络，几乎涵盖了中俄两国互

动的所有领域。本文借用了制度主义理论的分析概念，并制定了分析标准，以评估双边制度建设进程

在多大程度上促进并延续了中俄友好关系，使两国建立了更紧密的工作关系。文章还探讨了这一进程

的局限性。本文的结论是，双边机构建设对决策的实际影响不大，但是这些机构已成为确保高级决策

者和利益相关者之间定期交流和熟悉情况的重要论坛，使两国能够就各自的政策选择、意图和目标积

极沟通重要信息并做出相互保证。

【原文】Sino-Russian relations have thrived in the post–Cold War era. While the relationship has attracted

ample academic attention, many of the underlying factors contributing to the bilateral rapprochement over the

past three decades remain un(der)explored. This article examines the role played by one of the factors involved

in this process: the development of institutional links between the two states. Bilateral institutions, which were

largely absent until the mid-1990s, have rapidly proliferated into a dense network of commissions and

subcommissions, working groups, and other institutionalised exchanges, encompassing virtually all sectors of

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131

interaction between China and Russia. The article employs analytical concepts borrowed from Institutionalist

theory and develops criteria of analysis to assess the extent to which the process of bilateral institution-building

has contributed to promoting and perpetuating Sino-Russian rapprochement, enabling the two states to forge

a closer working relationship with each other. The article also examines what the limits of this process have

been. It concludes that the practical impact of bilateral institution-building on policy-making has been modest;

however, the institutions have come to constitute important forums to secure a regular exchange and

familiarisation between senior decision-makers and stakeholders, allowing for an active communication of

important information and mutual assurances regarding each country’s policy choices, intentions, and

concerns.

5. 文明视野下的多元现代性：评估全球文明倡议（Multiple Modernities in Civilizational

Perspective: An Assessment of the Global Civilization(s) Initiative）

Barry Buzan，英国伦敦政治经济学院国际关系系名誉教授

张锋，华南理工大学公共政策研究院教授

【摘要】本文从“文明是思考世界秩序的一个重要概念”这一假设出发，认为文明在世界政治中日益发

挥重要作用。本文首先对“全球文明倡议”（GCI）进行了详细考察，包括主要内容、内在意涵、未明

确的问题，以及政策背景。该倡议提出了“不平衡与综合发展”（UCD）理论，作为从文明多元主义角

度看待多元现代性的一种方法。随后，本文对 19 世纪初以来的不平衡与综合发展（UCD）历史发展

进行阐述，展示了它是如何从文明的角度产生单一和多元现代性的。倒数第二部分重点探讨了文明多

元化的世界秩序将为中国带来的风险和机遇。结论部分总结了论证的要点，并就全球文明倡议在作用

良好的情况下可能实现的目标提出了更为详尽的全球愿景。

【原文】This paper starts from the supposition that civilization is an important concept for thinking about

world order, and one that is increasingly coming back into play in world politics. It opens with a close look at

the Global Civilization Initiative (GCI): what does it say, what does it imply, about what is it silent, and what

are its policy contexts? It offers the theory of Uneven and Combined Development (UCD) as a way of looking

at multiple modernities in terms of civilizational pluralism. This is followed by a historical unfolding of UCD

since the early 19th century, showing how it has generated both single and multiple modernities cast in

civilizational terms. The penultimate section focuses on the risks and opportunities that a world order of

civilizational pluralism would create specifically for China. The conclusions summarize the main points of

argument, and set out a more detailed global vision of what the GCI might aim to achieve if played well.

【编译：马欣茹】

【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

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《太平洋评论》（The Pacific Review）

The Pacific Review，Vol.37, No.1,2024

1. 次强国在印太地区秩序转型中的施动性（The agency of secondary states in order

transition in the Indo-Pacific）

Jaeyoung Kim，加拿大蒙特利尔麦吉尔大学政治学系教授

【摘要】自由国际秩序（LIO）目前正处于复杂的危机之中。随着去全球化力量的增长、对美国设计

的自由国际秩序不满的新兴大国的崛起，以及气候变化和全球大流行病，自由国际秩序的合法性和可

持续性面临考验。印太地区是中美战略竞争的中心，该地区的次强国日益关注其地缘政治后果。然而，

本文认为，经常被视为大国棋子的次强国可以通过采取各种战略，最大限度地发挥自己的影响力，从

而将这种情况转化为自己的优势。作者认为应该认真对待这种可能性，即次强国（作者指所有比霸权

国家和崛起大国弱小的国家）可以塑造中美战略竞争的轮廓和印太地区新出现的国际秩序。现有的关

于秩序转型的文献专注于大国政治，忽视了次强国可以发展和行使自己的施动性这一事实。此外，施

动性在国际关系中的含义以及次强国如何行使施动性仍然模糊不清。在此背景下，作者提出了一个分

析框架，从三个维度：施动性的动机、动员资源的类型以及合作伙伴的可用性来解读各种类型的施动

性。这将有助于解释弱小国家如何参与重塑印太地区的国际秩序并发出自己的声音。

【原文】The liberal international order (LIO) is now in a complex crisis. Its legitimacy and sustainability are

put to the test with the growth of deglobalization forces, the rise of emerging powers dissatisfied with the LIO

designed by the US, and climate change and the global pandemic. The crisis of the LIO is particularly salient

in the Indo-Pacific, the epicenter of the US-China strategic competition, and secondary states in this region

are increasingly concerned about its geopolitical consequences. However, I argue that secondary states often

treated as the pawns of great powers can turn this circumstance to their advantage by adopting various

strategies that maximize their leverage. We should take seriously the possibility that secondary states, by which

I denote all states that are weaker or smaller than the hegemonic state and the rising power, can shape the

contours of the US-China strategic competition and the newly emerging international order in the Indo-Pacific

region. Preoccupied with great power politics, the existing literature on order transition has neglected the fact

《太平洋评论》（The Pacific Review）是太平洋地区研究

的主要平台，作为跨学科期刊，其宗旨和目标为打破研究

领域之间以及学术界、新闻界、政府和商界之间的壁垒，

重点关注政策问题。根据 Journal Citation Reports 显示，

2021 年该刊的影响因子为 2.074。

2024 年第 3 期（总第 15 期）

133

that secondary states can develop and exercise their own agency. Moreover, it remains vague what agency

means in IR and how secondary states enact it. Against this backdrop, I propose an analytical framework that

unpacks various types of agency along three dimensions—the motivation of agency, the type of mobilized

resources, and the availability of partners. It will help us explain how weaker and smaller states participate

and make their voice in reshaping international order in the Indo-Pacific.

2. 精英角色概念与印尼在“东盟印太展望”中的角色：夺回领导地位（Elite role

conceptions and Indonesia’s agency in the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific: reclaiming

leadership）

Pia Dannhauer，澳大利亚布里斯班格里菲斯大学政府与国际关系学院

【摘要】2019 年 6 月，东盟发布了一个共同的区域愿景，即“东盟印太展望”（AOIP）。该文件结

束了一场关于如何应对印太战略的概念、美国的印太战略以及地区安全架构的新内容特别是关于美日

印澳四国集团的争论。印尼传统上是东盟的主导者，在该组织领导力被削弱一段时间后，动用了大量

外交资本发展和确保达成“东盟印太展望”的机会。对这种行为的主流研究并不能完全解释为什么该

国领导建设了“东盟印太展望”，尽管大多数分析人士都认为，这一外交政策的制定较少受到印尼总

统佐科（2014 -）的影响。本文提出了一种独创的“角色整合”模型，认为印尼能够领导“东盟印太

展望”，是因为佐科总统对海上合作和经济外交的偏好，与印尼外交部维护东盟团结和中心地位的努

力是一致的。本研究的发现为塑造印尼在“东盟印太展望”中的作用的国内决策过程提供了新的实证

见解，并通过将分析重点从国内竞争转向可以塑造国家角色概念的合作动态，丰富了角色理论文献。

【原文】In June 2019, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) issued a shared regional vision,

the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP). The document ended a debate about how to respond to the

concept of the Indo-Pacific, the United States’ Indo-Pacific Strategy, and new additions to regional security

architecture, especially the Quad. Indonesia, traditionally a leading voice in ASEAN, exerted significant

diplomatic capital developing and securing agreement on the AOIP after a period of diminished leadership

from the organisation. Dominant explanations for this behaviour cannot fully address why the country led in

constructing AOIP despite what most analysts agree was the disengagement of President Joko ‘Jokowi’

Widodo (2014 -) from foreign policy. Developing an original ‘role integration’ model, this article argues that

Indonesia was able to lead on AOIP because President Jokowi’s preference for maritime cooperation and

economic diplomacy integrated with the Indonesian Foreign Ministry’s efforts to maintain ASEAN unity and

centrality in this instance. The findings of this research offer both new empirical insights into the domestic

decision-making processes that shaped Indonesia’s agency in AOIP and add to the role theory literature by

shifting the analytical focus from domestic contestation to cooperative dynamics that can shape the national

role conception.

3. 建设和平中的施动-结构问题：在朝鲜冲突中构建有利地位（The agency-structure

problem in peacebuilding: constructing a niche in the Korean conflict）

Dong Jin Kim，爱尔兰都柏林圣三一大学爱尔兰普世教会学校

134

Youngchul Chung，韩国麻浦区西江大学公共政策研究生院

【摘要】朝鲜冲突的结构动态不仅随着朝韩之间的竞争而演变，而且还随着大国竞争的地缘政治而演

变。在朝鲜战争和冷战期间，冲突结构得到了加强。冷战后，韩国曾多次提出与朝鲜建立和平的倡议，

但由于美朝在朝鲜核与导弹开发问题上的冲突升级，以及韩国社会对朝鲜政策的争议，和平进程起伏

不定。本文基于社会学对“结构二重性”的理解和生物学对“生态位建设”的洞察，论证了韩国作为一个

“民主国家”在持续的朝鲜冲突结构下，为其公民与朝鲜的和平建设构建生态位的潜力，以及当政府因

缺乏公民共识而对其政策缺乏明确的代入感时，在扩大冲突结构的破坏之前保护该空间的局限性。

【原文】The structural dynamics of the Korean conflict has evolved not only with the inter-Korean rivalry,

but also the geopolitics of great power rivalries. The conflict structure was reinforced going through the Korean

War and the Cold War. There have been several South Korean initiatives to build peace with North Korea in

the post-Cold War era, however the peace process fluctuated due to the escalation of the US-North Korean

conflict over the nuclear and missile development of North Korea, and the dispute over North Korea policy in

the South Korean society. Building on the sociological understanding of “duality of structure” and the

biological insight of “niche construction”, this article demonstrates the South Korean potential, as a democratic

state, to construct a niche space for its citizens’ peacebuilding with North Korea under the ongoing Korean

conflict structure, as well as its limitations in protecting the space before scaling out the disruption of the

conflict structure, when governments do not have a clear sense of agency about their policy due to the lack of

consensus among its citizens.

4. 不对称的转变：菲律宾和越南南海政策的演变及关注的不对称性（The transformation

of asymmetry: the evolution of Philippine and Vietnamese South China Sea policies and

the asymmetry of attention）

Guangyi Pan，澳大利亚新南威尔士州悉尼市新南威尔士大学社会科学学院

Thu Hien Phan，澳大利亚新南威尔士州悉尼市新南威尔士大学社会科学学院

【摘要】由于能力的差距，国家间的关系大多是不对称的。这并不意味着强者可以随意压制弱者，因

为这样做可能得不偿失。如果弱者认为某个问题比强者更重要，那么前者可能会投入更多的注意力，

以建立更坚定的意志和更强硬的立场来应对当前的压力。然而，中国的南海政策和周边国家的反应表

明了另一种情况：如果大国将注意力转移到同一问题上，并为此投入更多的政治资源，小国可能会失

去高度关注的优势。这是不对称政治既有理论中缺失的一环。本文研究了 2014 年至 2016 年间（尤其

是在 2016 年仲裁之后）菲律宾和越南在中国外交倾向于优先考虑南海问题前后所做的相关政策调整。

作者认为，随着美国在该地区的存在日益增加，中国对南海问题的关注发生了转移，这反映出中国政

府决定投入更多的外交资源和时间来形成一致的战略，以取代之前不加关注的非协调政策（这在过去

曾推动小国做出重大政策调整）。通过分析菲律宾和越南在南海问题上的立场，本文分析了这两个国

家在注意力转移后从积极主动地将南海问题国际化到低调地试图与中国修好的政策转变的原因。因此，

本研究旨在揭示小国政策调整背后的动机，并扩大不对称关注理论的解释范围。

【原文】Most relations among states are asymmetric due to a disparity of capacities. This does not mean the

strong can crush the weak at will, as the cost could outweigh the gain. If the weaker side sees an issue as more

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135

important than the stronger side, the former is likely to invest more attention into building a more robust will

and tougher stance against the pressure at hand. However, China’s South China Sea (SCS) policy and

neighbouring states’ responses to it demonstrate another scenario: small states may lose the advantages of

heightened attention if the great power shifts its focus onto the same issue, dedicating more political resources

to it. This represents a missing piece in the established theory of asymmetric politics. The present article

examines pertinent policy adjustments by the Philippines and Vietnam before and after Chinese diplomacy

gravitated towards prioritising the SCS from 2014 to 2016, especially after the 2016 Arbitration. I argue that,

with the US increasingly presence in the region, China’s attention shift to the SCS reflects Beijing’s decision

to put more diplomatic resources and time into forming a consistent strategy to replace its uncoordinated

policies out of the inattention, which previously motivated small states to make significant policy adjustments

in response. In analysing Philippine and the Vietnamese stances on the South China Sea, I gauge the reasons

for the two countries’ policy changes from a proactive stance in internationalising the issue to a low-profile

posture as an attempt to mend fences with China after the attention shift. Hence, this study aims to reveal the

motives behind small states’ policy adjustments, as well as to expand the explanatory scope of the theory of

asymmetric attention.

5. 在中美战略竞争中推销“独立外交政策”：民粹主义与杜特尔特政府领导下的菲律

宾外交政策（Selling “independent foreign policy” amid the US–China rivalry: populism

and Philippine foreign policy under the Duterte government）

Weiqing Song，中国澳门氹仔澳门大学社会科学院政府与公共行政系

Joseph Ching Velasco，菲律宾马尼拉德拉萨尔大学政治学与发展研究系

【摘要】本文探讨了杜特尔特政府时期（2016-2022 年）的菲律宾外交政策。在此期间，人们普遍认

为菲律宾的外交政策发生了巨大转变，政府以牺牲与美国的传统同盟关系为代价，对中国做出了友好

姿态。从外交政策分析的角度来看，本文明确关注政治领导在指导国家外交政策中的作用。本文认为，

杜特尔特政府在推行其民粹主义外交政策时战略性地利用了政治营销。因此，政治营销作为一种分析

视角，用来审视杜特尔特政府的许多言论和行为，尤其是其对中美竞争的回应。通过参与这种所谓的

外交游戏，杜特尔特政府试图将其外交政策承诺和成果作为产品进行销售，即使其言论有时与实际表

现脱节。总之，本文提出了另一种有助于我们理解民粹主义外交政策举措在脆弱民主环境中的作用的

视角。

【原文】This paper examines Philippine foreign policy under the Duterte government (2016–2022). During

this period, Philippine foreign policy is widely acknowledged to have undergone dramatic shifts, with the

government making friendly overtures towards China at the cost of its traditional alliance with the US. From

a foreign policy analysis perspective, this paper explicitly focuses on the role of political leadership in guiding

national foreign policy. This paper argues that the Duterte government made strategic use of political

marketing in promoting its populist foreign policy. Thus, political marketing is used as an analytical lens with

which to examine much of the rhetoric and behaviour of the Duterte government, particularly in regard to its

response to the US–China rivalry. By engaging in this supposedly diplomatic game, the Duterte government

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tried to sell its foreign policy promises and outcomes as products even when its rhetoric was at times

disconnected from its actual performance. Overall, this paper develops an alternative perspective from which

to add to our understanding of the role of populist foreign policy initiatives in a fragile democratic setting.

6. 非我之战：东盟各国政府对俄乌冲突的反应对认识东南亚的启示（Not our war. What

ASEAN governments’ responses to the Ukraine war tell us about Southeast Asia）

Frederick Kliem，新加坡南洋理工大学拉惹勒南国际关系学院多边主义研究中心

【摘要】俄乌冲突受到了“政治西方”国家政府的广泛谴责。大多数其他国家在这场战争中要么保持

中立，要么甚至倾向于俄罗斯。东南亚也不例外。西方有一种观点认为，这些国家不愿明确站在俄罗

斯对立面的主要原因是他们与莫斯科的关系，甚至可能是依赖关系；从表面上看，这是一种合乎逻辑

的推断。本文认为，虽然这种说法有一定道理，但各国政府对战争的反应与他们与莫斯科的双边关系

之间存在不相称特征，从而不足以作为令人满意的解释。相反，必须超越物质主义的单一因果解释。

要想了解全貌，就必须了解东南亚的外交传统、其开放包容的地区主义形式以及对国内政治的持续关

注。本研究首次对东南亚对俄乌冲突的反应进行了全面的实证分类，并对东盟的外交文化进行了回顾。

【原文】Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been widely condemned by governments of the ‘political West’.

Most other states have been either neutral or even Russia-leaning in this war. Southeast Asia is no exception.

There is a sense in the West that the primary explanation for this reluctance to unambiguously side against

Russia is the relationship, perhaps even dependency, that these states may have vis-à-vis Moscow; prima facie,

a logical presumption. This article finds that while there is some truth to this claim, the relations between

individual governments’ responses to the war and their bilateral relationships with Moscow is too uneven to

suffice as a satisfactory explanation. Instead, one must look beyond materialistic, mono-causal explanations.

To get the full picture, one must appreciate Southeast Asia’s diplomatic tradition, their form of open and

inclusive regionalism and the continued focus on domestic politics. This research provides the first

comprehensive empirical categorisation of Southeast Asian responses to the Ukraine war and traces these to

ASEAN’s diplomatic culture.

【编译：邹梓轩】

【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

2024 年第 3 期（总第 15 期）

137

《亚太国际关系》（International Relations of the Asia-Pacific）

International Relations of the Asia-Pacific， Vol 24, No 1, Jan2024

1. 从“国”到“天下”：两种道家国际关系理论的联系（From guo to tianxia: linking

two Daoist theories of International Relations）

Devin Joshi，新加坡管理大学政治学副教授

【摘要】道家思想是亚洲历史悠久的国际政治理论传统之一，本研究探讨了道家的国际关系理论（IRT）。

本研究以老子的《道德经》为基础，阐明了道家的两种国际关系理论。首先，《老子》提供了一种以

国家为中心、以“国”为基础的国际关系理论，该理论用以制定外交政策和处理国家间关系，强调以柔

克刚。其次，《老子》提供了一种乌托邦式的、以“道”为基础的、以“天下”为中心的国际关系理论，

通过“道”来消解国家间竞争，从而实现与宇宙的自然节奏相和谐的和平的全球治理。既有研究往往只

关注这两种理论之一，本文则认为这两种观点紧密联系，第一种理论更为务实，且为第二种理论奠定

了基石。这种联系展示了道家思想如何提供了一种复杂的非西方国际关系理论，对解决当今世界面临

的挑战具有现实意义。

【原文】This study examines the international relations theory (IRT) of Daoism, one of Asia’s long-standing

traditions to have theorized international politics. Drawing upon Laozi’s Dao De Jing, this study elucidates

two Daoist IR theories. First, Laozi provides a state-focused guo-based IRT for conducting foreign policy and

managing inter-state relations with emphasis on yielding and softness to overcome violence and domination.

Second, Laozi offers a Utopian and globalist tianxia-centered IRT based on following the Dao whereby interstate rivalry is dissolved in favor of peaceful planetary governance in harmony with the natural rhythms of the

cosmos. Whereas previous scholarship often concentrates on only one of these two scenarios, I argue the two

visions are tightly connected with the more pragmatic first theory envisioned as a stepping stone to obtaining

the second. This link demonstrates how Daoism offers a sophisticated non-Western IRT with relevance to

addressing planetary challenges today.

《亚太国际关系》（ International Relations of the AsiaPacific），简称“IRAP”，是出版在亚太区域最好的原创性

文章的主流国际期刊。本刊创刊于 2001 年，每年在一、

五、九月各发行一刊。《亚太国际关系》的创刊目的有二：

其一是给读者奉献亚太国际关系领域的优质研究成果，其

二是为从事亚太国际关系的学者提供专业的学术平台。该

刊着眼于亚太区域内国际关系，亚太与世界其他区域的关

系、涉及亚太国家的国际关系一般性事务与理论。根据

IRAP 官网显示，当前影响因子为 2.545。

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2. 驾驭大国竞争：新古典现实主义观点之“对冲”（Navigating great power

competition: a neoclassical realist view of hedging）

Hunter S Marston，澳大利亚国立大学国际关系专业博士

【摘要】与小国将制衡外部威胁的预测相反，东南亚国家正在通过同时深化与美国和中国的安全合作

来对冲风险。鉴于人们对中国崛起带来的威胁感知日益增强，以及两极压力不断加大，有关对冲的主

流观点无法充分解释此类政策选择持续存在的原因。在考虑到现有理论的局限性后，本文认为新古典

现实主义对冲路径更好地整合了影响决策者偏好的国内和国际因素。本文结合该理论框架进行了三个

案例研究：新加坡、越南和菲律宾。新古典现实主义谨慎对待个人观念和官僚机构的作用，但又没有

忽视新现实主义范式下变量的重要性，如安全威胁、条约联盟和经济利益等。最终，其更全面、更准

确地解读了继续推动东南亚国家对冲以降低大国冲突风险的要素。

【原文】Contrary to predictions that smaller powers will balance against or bandwagon with external threats,

Southeast Asian states are hedging by deepening their security cooperation with both the United States and

China. Prevailing accounts of hedging do not adequately explain the persistence of such policy choices given

growing threat perceptions of China and mounting bipolar pressures. After considering the limitations of

existing theories, this article contends that a neoclassical realist approach to hedging better integrates the

domestic and international factors that inform decision-makers’ preferences. It operationalizes this theoretical

framework in three case studies: Singapore, Vietnam, and the Philippines. A neoclassical realist approach

takes the role of individual perceptions and bureaucracies seriously, without dismissing the significance of

variables identified by neorealism, including security threats, treaty alliances, and economic benefits.

Ultimately, a more complete and accurate understanding of what continues to propel hedging in Southeast

Asian states can mitigate the risks of great power conflict.

3. 既不促进也不推广民主：佐科·维多多领导下的印尼在巴厘岛民主论坛上的中等强国

特征（Neither promoting nor projecting democracy: Indonesia’s middlepowermanship in

the Bali democracy forum under Joko Widodo）

Mohamad Rosyidin，印尼迪波内戈罗大学国际关系系文学硕士

Indra Kusumawardhana，印尼佩塔米纳大学国际关系研究项目博士

【摘要】尽管印尼总统佐科·维多多(Joko Widodo)的外交政策具有务实特质，该国的民主指数也有所

下降，但印尼仍然渴望继续举办巴厘岛民主论坛(BDF)。本文旨在运用中等大国外交的概念来解释这

一明显的矛盾。本文认为，与其前任相比，维多多并不认为 BDF 是促进或在国外推广民主的工具。

相反，维多多认为 BDF 强调了印尼在多边论坛中的领导作用。这种“中等强国特征”挑战了以精英为

基础的解释印尼外交政策的方法，这种方法格外强调佐科维的个人性格特征。印尼国防军在维多多的

领导下得以延续，反映出印尼对自身中等大国地位的默认思维。

【原文】Despite the pragmatic character of Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s foreign policy and the

regression of the country’s democracy index, Indonesia remains eager for the continuation of Bali Democracy

Forum (BDF). This article aims to solve this apparent contradiction using the concept of middle power

2024 年第 3 期（总第 15 期）

139

diplomacy. This article argues that, in contrast to his predecessor, Widodo does not perceive BDF as an

instrument to promote or project democracy abroad. Rather, Widodo considers the BDF to accentuate

Indonesia’s leadership role in multilateral fora. This ‘middlepowermanship’ challenges the elite-based

approach in explaining Indonesia’s foreign policy, which puts a strong emphasis on Jokowi’s personal

character traits. The continuation of the BDF under Widodo reflects Indonesia’s default thinking of its status

as a middle power.

4. 美国会保卫台湾吗？——基于台湾地区和美国的民意分析（Will the United States

come to Taiwan’s defense? Analysis of public opinion in Taiwan and the United States）

吴重礼，“中研院”政治研究所所长

林敏伟，台湾政治大学公共行政学系博士

【摘要】如果两岸之间爆发冲突，美国会来保护台湾吗? 中国大陆在该地区日益增强的自信，以及在

台岛周边频繁的军事活动，重燃了人们对这个存在了几十年的问题的兴趣。本研究采用两项调查，分

别于台湾地区和美国展开。美国的调查结果显示，尽管大多数美国人对台湾地区持积极看法，但在假

设中国大陆“发动进攻”时，美国更倾向于采取何种军事反应方面，几乎没有达成共识。这些分析有

助于推动现有文献关于台湾地区和美国关于台海冲突可能性的舆论演变的研究。

【原文】If conflict breaks out between Taiwan and China, would the United States come to the island’s

defense? China’s growing assertiveness in the region and aggressive military activities around Taiwan have

renewed interest in this decades-old question. This study examines the issue by employing two surveys, one

conducted in Taiwan and another in the United States. Results of the Taiwan survey indicate that while a

majority of Taiwan citizens do indeed believe the United States would help defend Taiwan if it were attacked

by China, five types of respondents—idealists, pragmatists, democracy skeptics, political realists, and

pessimists—can be discerned, each with a distinctive pattern of reasoning. Findings from the US survey reveal

that while Americans mostly hold positive views of Taiwan, there is little consensus on the preferred US

military response in the event of a Chinese attack. These analyses contribute to the existing literature on

evolving public opinion in Taiwan and the United States concerning the possibility of armed conflict in the

Taiwan Strait.

【编译：马欣茹】

【责任编辑：严瑾怡】