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庇护国向其盟国施压以增加责任分担努力的能力取决于盟国担心其退出联盟的程度。

作为对其联盟的替代，庇护国有两种选择。首先，它可以单方面放弃承诺或减少提供的

保护，无论是奉行更加自给自足、甚至是孤立主义的外交政策，还是寻求与对手和解。这

两种方式并不相互排斥，实际上是相辅相成的；与对手缓和关系可以减少结盟的理由，

从而促进削减的努力。第二，庇护国可以找到其他盟国。因此，庇护国在多大程度上有能

力采取上述任一选择，决定了其威胁抛弃盟友的可信度。具体而言，作者认为盟国的战

略价值和威胁环境这两个要素会影响这些外部选项的可信程度。

当盟国的战略价值较低时，庇护国更容易抛弃该盟国。盟国的战略价值越高，庇护

国就越有确保其留在自己阵营中的意愿，因此庇护国就越有可能保护盟国。同时如果没

有庇护国的保护，盟国的处境会更糟时，盟国对被抛弃的恐惧也可能更加突出。特别是，

当盟国对外部威胁的感知程度较高时，盟国会更担心被抛弃，从而更容易受到庇护国的

压力。盟国受到共同对手攻击越脆弱，没有庇护国的援助时的战斗成本就越高。因此，庇

护国利用盟国担心被抛弃恐惧的能力，既取决于盟国是否认为其退出威胁是可信的，也

取决于盟国对其保护的依赖程度。但这两种因素往往是相互交织的，许多导致盟国对被

抛弃更脆弱的因素也能降低庇护国威胁的可信程度。共同对手构成的外部威胁不仅使盟

国依赖于庇护国的保护，也使盟国在遏制和阻止对手扩张方面具有重要价值。因此，进

行实证预测所面临的难题是联盟的共同威胁环境与盟国对庇护国的战略价值是密切相关

的。要区分这两种机制并预测它们对盟国责任分担的净影响，有必要将威胁认知的各个

组成部分区分开来：对手的能力、对手的行为、对手意图的认知以及地理脆弱性。作者认

为对手的能力和行为能够同时塑造盟国和庇护国的威胁认知，但是地理和对手意图的认

知则会在联盟中有所不同。庇护国和盟友对对手意图认知的不同难以衡量，影响威胁评

估的因素又多种多样，因此本文只简单预计如果盟国与庇护国有共同的对手，并且认为

对手的威胁程度较高，那么平均而言，这些盟国比那些与庇护国没有共同的对手，并且

认为对手的威胁程度较低的盟国更有可能分担责任。这反过来证明地理因素在联盟责任

分担中的重要性，因为地理因素既容易衡量，又因盟国而异。毗邻共同的对手既是脆弱

性的来源，也是战略价值的来源。对庇护国而言，与对手相邻的盟国是遏制对手扩张的

有用屏障，以免对手在未来成为更大的威胁，因为这些盟国既能实际阻挡对手的扩张，

又能为庇护国提供领土，使庇护国可以从这些领土上投射力量以达到同样的目的。然而，

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对于盟国来说，毗邻对手会使其直接受到攻击。因此，盟国毗邻共同对手的效果取决于

盟友是否很容易受到攻击，以至于其脆弱性超过了其为庇护国所带来的价值。

基于以上的讨论，作者认为可以做出两个预测。首先，与庇护国没有共同对手的盟

国不太可能分担责任。其次，在与庇护国有共同对手的国家中，责任分担的差异取决于

它们与这些对手的距离远近。作者进一步指出毗邻性的影响并不是线性的，与共同对手

在陆地上毗邻的国家尤其脆弱，尽管它们具有战略价值，但很可能会受到其庇护国责任

分担压力的影响。而与共同对手共享海洋边界的国家并不会比起更远的盟友在防卫上花

费得更多或是更少。所以假设 1 如下，

假设 1a（H1a）:当盟国与庇护国有共同的对手时，盟国更容易分担责任。

假设 1b（H1b）:当盟国与对手共享陆地边界时，盟国更容易分担责任。

此外，作者认为当盟国靠近对手周围的关键海上咽喉时，它们不太可能分担责任。

因为这些盟国在切断对手的力量投射方面发挥着关键作用。

假设 2（H2）：盟国如果位于其庇护国对手周围的海上咽喉附近，就不太可能分担责

任。

盟友战略价值的最后一个要素是庇护国的替代选择的丰富性。其他条件不变，与被

同样是美国盟友的邻国包围的盟国相比，庇护国更无力放弃一个孤立无援的盟国。因此，

作者预计附近美国盟友较少的盟国的国防开支会减少。

假设 3（H3）: 当盟国的邻国中美国盟友较少时，盟国分担责任的可能性较小。

1. 替代解释

本文的理论预测与以下几种替代解释相反。第一种是“联盟的经济理论”（economic

theory of alliances），预测更大的盟国会贡献更多的 GDP 用于国防。第二种是政权类型，

认为民主国家会比威权国家对其人民更为负责，一些研究表明民主国家在国防上花费更

少。第三，目前的研究表明美军的存在应该与盟友更低的国防开支有关。然而本文的理

论认为，美国的驻军水平往往是共享的威胁环境或盟友战略价值等其他因素的内生结果。

此外，美国政策制定者还可以利用减少部队人数的威胁来鼓励责任分担。最后，传统的

均势理论会预测盟国的防卫努力是对其威胁环境的内部制衡。本文的理论并不否认这一

观点，但是本文指出外部威胁影响盟国责任分担这另一种机制：使盟国害怕被抛弃，对

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庇护国的强制更为脆弱。并且本文的理论做出了一个新颖的实证预测：只有当盟国提供

的战略价值不足以抵消外部威胁时，外部威胁才会影响责任分担，即当盟国与共同的对

手陆地接壤时。而诸如对手能力及行为等指标可能对责任分担没有净影响，因为它们既

使盟国更容易被抛弃，也使盟国对庇护国更有价值，从而削弱了庇护国的抛弃威胁。相

反，均势理论则预测所有威胁指标都会对盟国军费开支产生一致的积极影响。

图 1 外部威胁塑造盟国责任分担的因果机制

2. 研究设计

-年。本

文的样本从 1950 到 2010 年，包括了战争相关因素数据库（COW）所定义的所有与美国

有防卫协议的国家。然后，出于威胁环境（远离美国的威胁），里约条约（Rio Treaty）

的本质（并不是对抗外部威胁的协议而是管控成员国之间的冲突），美国与该区域国家

关系的性质（美国把美洲视为自己的势力范围，抛弃盟国的威胁在这些联盟中并不突出）

以及本文的自变量缺乏变化这四个原因，本文排除了美国在美洲的盟友。

3. 因变量与自变量

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本文的主要因变量是盟国军事支出占 GDP 的百分比，数据来自战争相关因素数据库

的国家物资能力（National Material Capabilities, NMC）数据集 5.0 版。而直接测量抛弃

的威胁是困难的，因为这些威胁极少是公开，而通常是间接的。并且盟国可能不愿意公

开冲突，以免给对手造成联盟不团结的印象，或引起国内对联盟的不满。尽管如此，如果

本文的假设是正确的，那么我们仍然会根据盟国在自变量上的得分情况，看到盟国军费

开支的系统性差异，无论是由于直接或间接的庇护国压力，还是由于盟国因害怕被抛弃

而主动增加国防开支。

本文的第一组自变量使用两个虚拟变量来捕捉共同对手的存在和毗邻程度：如果盟

国与共同对手国家有陆地边界的话，虚拟变量取值为 1，否则为 0；如果盟国与美国有共

同对手但没有陆地边界，则另一个虚拟变量取值为 1，否则为 0。本文预计两者都会对盟

国的军费开支产生积极影响，并且前者的影响会更大，因为在陆地上与共同对手接壤的

盟国更容易受到攻击，因此特别容易受到美国责任分担压力的影响。在一些模型中，还

分别加入了盟国是否与共同对手相隔四百英里或更短水域的虚拟变量，以及盟国是否与

美国有共同对手但不靠近前者的虚拟变量。本文的预期是，这两者对盟国责任分担的影

响大致相同。

共同对手有以下几个定义。第一，任何与美国及其盟友在外交政策上敌对的国家，

包括俄国（1950-89，2007-2010）、中国（1950-72，1996-2010）、古巴（1959-2010），

但是这排除了许多可以被当作共同对手的其他国家，因此本文也将冷战时期任何苏联阵

营内的国家编码为共同对手。冷战后由于美国的盟友缺乏一个总体的威胁，盟国对美国

的威胁更为多变，因此本文也将伊拉克、伊朗和朝鲜囊括在美国的对手之内。第三，本文

设置了一个虚拟变量，如果盟友位于美国主要对手附近的重要海上咽喉要道 400 英里范

围内，船只通过咽喉要道需要经过盟友才能到达开放水域，则该变量取值为 1。在实践

中，本文将重点放在冷战期间包围苏联海军的咽喉要道上，以及冷战后包围俄罗斯和中

国海军的咽喉要道上，因为在研究期间，在美国的竞争对手中，它们的力量投射能力是

独一无二的。这并不意味着本文否认其他咽喉要道的战略价值，而是这些“前线”咽喉要

道的价值在于，它们可以阻止对手从一开始就向更远的咽喉要道投射力量。最后，本文

用与每个盟国毗邻的盟国数量来衡量附近其他盟国的数量，无论是陆路还是四百英里或

更短的水路。

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4. 控制变量

本文首先控制了盟国的年度 GDP 增长率（以占上一年 GDP 的百分比来衡量），因

为我们预计，经济增长的国家会征收更多的税收，用于国防开支，而经济衰退的国家则

会减少政府收入。第二，本文控制了盟友的经济大小，使用以 2005 年定值美元计算的盟

国国内生产总值来控制盟国的经济规模，现有文献预计这将对盟国的国防责任产生积极

影响。第三，本文用民主的二元指标来控制盟友的政权类型。此外，在安全环境方面，作

者还考虑了每个盟国独特的冲突环境，控制了盟国卷入的军事化国家间争端（militarized

interstate disputes, MIDs）的数量，并根据 MIDs 的敌对程度进行加权，还控制了盟国在外

交政策上与美国敌对对手的数量。其次，本文还加入了盟国是否拥有殖民帝国的虚拟变

量。第三，作者对每个盟国境内的美军人数进行了控制。最后，作者在一些模型中还加入

了盟国与美国的最小距离。

5. 模型说明

本文使用普通最小二乘法回归（ordinary least squares regression）对模型进行估算，

并将标准误差按国家分组。此外，本文还加入了地区固定效应，在某些情况下还加入了

年份固定效应（year fixed effects），以考虑未观察到的地区和时间变化。

6. 结果与稳健性

图 1 的结果为本文的假说提供了极强的支持。总的来说，H1b(与共同对手陆地毗邻)，

H2（邻近海上咽喉要道）与 H3（替代的美国盟友）得到了有力的证实。研究结果一致表

明，与那些与对手陆地毗邻的盟国相比，那些与敌国有共同对手但没有陆地毗邻的盟国，

或者根本没有共同对手的盟国，国防开支占其国内生产总值的比例更高。此外，靠近具

有战略价值的海上咽喉要道的盟国以及周边其他美国盟国较少的盟国的国防支出也较少。

H1a（没有陆地毗邻的共同对手）得到的支持较弱，仅在某些模型中具有在 0.1 水平上显

著的正效应。本文还对邻近海上咽喉要道和美国的共同对手这两个主要变量进行了广义

和狭义编码，以检验研究结果的稳健性，其结果与原有结果一致。

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图 1 主要结果

注：（1）括号内为按国家分类的标准误差。FE：固定效应。（2）p < 0.10, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

（3）因变量为各盟国的军费开支（占国内生产总值的百分比）。

四、探索因果机制：被抛弃的恐惧与内部制衡

对评估本文理论的潜在挑战在于假设 1a 与假设 1b 的预测与纯基于盟国对外部威胁

认知的预测一致。为了把本文的理论与替代解释区分开，本文首先运用了一个替代的因

变量，盟国对美国军事存在在其国家的东道主支持（allies’host-nation support, HNS)。因

为这是盟国的东道主支持是对美国的补偿，更有可能是美国压力的结果而非内部制衡的

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回应，如图 2 和图 3 所示，结果证明，与美国有共同对手并与其陆地毗邻的国家会提供

更多的东道主支持。其次，本文提供了自 1960 年代到 1970 年代西德和日本的定性证据。

在案例选择方面，本文尽量关注于威胁环境的变化，尽量控制其他的变化，两国在大小，

政权类型、战略价值、让美国担心军国主义会卷土重来的二战遗产方面比较相似，并且

都有比其他美国盟友更多的驻军。选择这一时期目的是因为当时美国盟友的经济在恢复，

但与此同时美国的主导地位在削弱，越南战争限制了美国的资源，美国官员面临国会要

求分担更多责任的压力。

1.西德

肯尼迪和约翰逊都想西德向北约作出强有力的贡献。两位总统都特别关注西德购买

美国的武器和军事装备。这起到两个作用：（1）提高西德的军事实力并且使得西德更加

依赖美国的武器 （2）减少美国国际收支逆差。两位总统经常威胁西德要把军队撤出西

德来给西德施加更大的责任分担压力。约翰逊的继任者尼克松则寻求西德更大的责任分

担贡献。这使得西德队军费开支急剧上升，从 1970 年占 GDP 的 3%上升到 1975 年的

4.6%。证据表明，西德的政策制定者认真对待美国的放弃威胁，并调整了他们的国防贡

献以缓解美国的压力。一位美国官员在 1969 年指出，欧洲人认为“他们的国防需求主要

是在他们需要提供什么来让美国人做出承诺”，而在 1970 年，西德人要求“表明......最

低限度的欧洲防务贡献“，以”限制（美国）预算和国会的压力“。国务卿迪安·腊斯克

（Dean Rusk）在 1963 年 1 月告诫德国大使，地理环境使得西德冒险藐视美国非常危险。

2. 日本

美国对日本责任分担的野心比对西德的野心要小得多，但它甚至难以实现其有限的

目标。肯尼迪和约翰逊时期的美国政策制定者担心任何鼓励增加日本军事能力的尝试可

能引发强烈反对和日本民族主义的滋长。因此，在整个 1960 年代和 1970 年代，日本的

军费开支一直低于 GDP 的 1%。证据表明，与西德相比，日本有限的责任分担反映了其

对被遗弃的恐惧相对温和。这是因为由于与亚洲大陆的分离，日本政界的许多人认为他

们的安全几乎没有受到威胁，并且对美军存在的必要性感到矛盾。

通过比较日本和西德的案例，作者发现西德的被抛弃的恐惧要高于日本，这一恐惧

导致了其防卫努力，使得其回应了更多美国责任分担的压力。

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图 2 盟国对东道国支持的结果

注：因变量为每个盟国对东道国的支持（占 GDP 的百分比）.

图 3 盟国对东道国支持的结果

五、启示与未来研究的路径

本研究为今后的研究提供了许多路径。首先，尽管本研究主要关注的是担心被抛弃

的恐惧作为责任分担差异来源的影响，但进一步的研究可以调查其他手段的有效性。这

些手段包括但不限于经济胁迫、诱导以及“点名羞辱”（naming and shaming）责任分担

不足的国家。与此相关的一个研究方向可以关注盟国出于与讨价还价或其他盟国的贡献

无关的原因（如规范性考虑和价值观）而为集体利益做出贡献的意愿。此外，由于本文的

自变量每年都相对固定，因此还可以对庇护国何时真正希望其盟国为自己的防务承担更

多责任，以及如何解释随时间推移而发生的变化进行更多研究。

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最后本文对美国大战略的讨论有以下启示。本文认为如果美国官员希望盟国承担更

多责任，那他们应该对盟国对被抛弃的恐惧抱有浓厚兴趣。作者认为即使美国不遗余力

地安抚盟国，其在影响盟国分担负担方面也并非束手无策，因为其可以有效地将安抚与

被抛弃的恐惧结合起来。因此，安抚盟友与鼓励责任分担之间的权衡并不是绝对的。但

是，美国的操作空间会被其不可控的因素所限制。并且美国还可以通过扩张联盟前线，

把更大的盟国从共同对手隔绝开来，来削弱责任分担（例如冷战后的北约东扩）。此外，

共同的外部威胁并不能保证成功；尽管盟国对威胁的认知度提高可能会倾向于更多的责

任分担，但美国对威胁的认知度提高可能会降低盟国分担更多责任的积极性。最近十年

的趋势是美国权力的相对衰弱和中国的崛起。如果美国可用于对外承诺的资源减少，而

盟友又担心中国的崛起，那么他们可能会愿意分担一些责任。然而，美国成功的程度可

能会受到其自身威胁认知的影响，从而降低盟国责任分担的积极性。

 译者评述

本文主要探讨了大国对于盟国的责任分担压力，在什么条件下能够成功，什么条件

下不易成功。本文的主要观点是，当盟国与庇护国有共同的对手时，盟国更容易分担责

任。由于直接与敌国陆地接壤的盟友会更加脆弱，当盟国与对手共享陆地边界时，盟国

更容易分担责任。由于处于海上咽喉地位的盟国对于大国的价值更高，盟国如果位于其

庇护国对手周围的海上咽喉附近，就不太可能分担责任。最后，当盟国的邻国中美国盟

友较少时，盟国分担责任的可能性较小。

本文运用了定性加定量的混合研究方法。先是通过细致的统计分析，验证了本文的

三个假设，证明了本文的结论的外部有效性（external validity）。再通过对日本和西德的

两个最相似案例，探讨了不同程度的被抛弃威胁对于西德和日本应对美国责任分担压力

的影响，检验了本文理论的因果机制，展示了理论的内部有效性（internal validity）。本

文最大的的贡献就是填补了既有研究的一个重要空白，即大国压力对于盟友责任分担的

作用机制，以及成功条件。

虽然本文极具学术贡献，但也不是没有不足。第一，本文对于怎样衡量大国对盟友

责任分担压力的成功与否并没有一个明确的标准。第二，虽然作者指出了庇护国的杠杆

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可以通过三种方式来塑造联盟的责任分担，但并没有探讨在特定情况下哪种因果路径会

发生作用。第三，在案例检验方面，尽管作者通过选择日本和西德两个相似的案例来控

制变量，但在案例检验的环节方面，作者缺乏对于替代解释的进一步讨论，来排出掉可

能的自变量。

除了作者在文章末尾所指出的未来的研究方向以外，译者认为还可以进一步探讨以

下研究方向。第一，为什么有的时候盟友愿意分担责任，有的时候不愿意分担责任。第

二，为什么美国担心责任分担压力会引发日本的民族主义滋长，而不担心德国的民族主

义，什么情况下大国会担心责任压力分担会导致对象国国内的强烈反对，什么情况下不

担心。第三，把责任分担压力的水平作为自变量，研究其对于包括盟友之间的紧密程度

等其他因变量的影响。

【校对审核：李琳洁 邓浩然 丁伟航】

【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

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新刊速递

《国际政治经济学评论》 （ Review of International Political

Economy）

Review of International Political Economy，Vol.30, No.6, 202（下）

1. 飞扬的旗帜：国籍、主权与航空自由化（Flying flags: nationality, sovereignty, and

airline liberalization）

Colin Chia，加拿大社会科学与人文研究委员会（SSHRC）的博士后研究员

【摘要】国籍是国际航空公司治理体系的一个关键要素，而航空业是经济全球化的主要手段。作者认

为，经济民族主义动机驱使国家利用国际经济流动来支持主权和国家认同。经济民族主义被概念化为

一种表现现象，描述了国家如何通过促进和控制经济实践来使主权和民族成为现实。采用混合方法论，

作者统计分析了一个可观察的推论，即文化差异较大的双边对有更不自由的双边航空服务协议。接着，

作者通过分析性叙述研究了加拿大和欧盟如何应对海湾国家航空公司的快速增长和雄心勃勃的扩张，

这些航空公司本身就是经济民族主义项目。加拿大限制了通行权，而欧盟则通过执行公平竞争概念和

公开审查外国对欧盟航空公司的所有权和控制来施加控制。本文的一个关键贡献是探讨贸易政策是如

何受到象征性政治的驱动的，以及提出物质收益是为了支持国家认同和主权表演而追求的可能性。这

对于其他被认为对主权有影响的行业也有进一步的应用。

【原文】Nationality is a crucial element of the regime governing international airlines, the industry which is

a key means of economic globalization. I argue that economic nationalist motives drive states to harness

international economic flows to support sovereignty and national identity. Economic nationalism is

conceptualized as a performative phenomenon, describing how states make sovereignty and nations real by

《国际政治经济学评论》（Review of International Political

Economy）是一份涵盖国际政治经济学研究的双月刊同行

评审学术期刊。其成立于 1999 年，由 Routledge 出版。本

刊是国际政治经济学领域的主流期刊之一，与《新政治经

济学》(New Political Economy)并列。2022 年该刊影响因

子为 4.3。

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enabling and controlling economic practices. Using a mixed-methods approach, I statistically examine an

observable implication that dyads which have greater cultural difference tend to have less liberal bilateral air

services agreements. I then investigate through analytic narratives how Canada and the EU dealt with the rapid

growth and ambitious expansion of the Gulf state airlines, which were themselves economic nationalist

projects. Canada restricted traffic rights while the EU has exerted control by enforcing concepts of fair

competition and publicizing its scrutiny of foreign ownership and control over EU airlines. A key contribution

of this article is to explore how trade policy is driven by symbolic politics, and to raise the possibility that

material gains are pursed to support performances of national identity and sovereignty. This has further

applications to other sectors with perceived implications for sovereignty.

2. 谁在何时投票支持自由贸易？地缘政治作为自由贸易协定立法偏好的来源（Who

votes for free trade and when? Geopolitics as the source of legislative preferences on free

trade agreements）

Sung Eun Kim，韩国大学政治学与国际关系副教授

Joonseok Yang，韩国首尔成均馆大学政治学与外交系助理教授

【摘要】为什么立法者支持某些自由贸易协定而反对其他协定？尽管对自由贸易协定的立法支持存在

广泛的变化，但立法者的不同偏好在文献中鲜有关注，这些文献主要集中于立法者和个别选民的一般

贸易政策偏好。我们将地缘政治因素作为特定自由贸易协定立法偏好的关键来源。使用美国众议院代

表就所有主要的与自由贸易协定相关的议案的投票记录，我们发现潜在贸易伙伴的地缘战略重要性对

于投票支持贸易协定有着实质性的影响。我们发现，当考虑与盟友或利益密切相关的国家的贸易协定

时，立法者对其选民的经济利益的敏感度降低。这凸显了审视贸易合作的安全外部性的重要性。

【原文】Why do legislators support some free trade agreements but oppose others? Despite a wide variation

in legislative support for free trade agreements, the heterogeneous preferences of legislators have received

little attention in the literature, which largely focuses on general trade policy preferences of legislators and

individual voters. We bring in geopolitical factors as a key source of legislative preferences on specific free

trade agreements. Using voting records of the U.S. House representatives on all major bills related to free trade

agreements, we find that the geostrategic importance of potential trading partner has a substantial effect on

voting for trade agreements. We find that legislators become less sensitive to their constituents’ economic

interests when considering trade agreements with allies or countries with closely aligned interests. This

highlights the importance of examining security externalities of trade cooperation.

3. 作为保护主义的法律传播：美国推广反托拉斯法的案例（Legal diffusion as

protectionism: the case of the U.S. promotion of antitrust laws）

Melike Arslan，德国马克斯普朗克社会研究所博士后

【摘要】以往关于反托拉斯（竞争）法在全球范围内的传播与协调的研究主要集中在新通过或改革本

国法律的国家的动机上。本文则以美国为中心，探究在国际上推广这些法律的强国的动机。文章发现，

贸易保护主义——而非全球主义——的利益和理念促使美国在 20 世纪 90 年代推广强有力的国际反

2024 年第 2 期（总第 14 期）

107

托拉斯规范。通过分析 20 世纪 80 年代的国会文件和辩论，研究表明，美国进口竞争公司将外国产业

政策诬蔑为卡特尔化，从而使其在自由市场和国内反托拉斯法的主导框架内对贸易保护的要求合法化。

这种说法在国会的政治影响力推动了 1988 年《贸易法》的制定和 1990 年与日本的贸易谈判，使美国

在 20 世纪 90 年代正式倾向于采用强有力的国际反托拉斯规范。具有讽刺意味的是，这些研究结果突

出表明，“反市场”的原因也可以促使“支持市场”的规范传播。

【原文】Prior research on the global diffusion and harmonization of antitrust (competition) laws mainly

focused on the motivations of countries newly adopting or reforming their national laws. This article instead

inquires about the motivations of the powerful states promoting these laws internationally, primarily focusing

on the United States. It finds that trade protectionist —rather than globalist— interests and ideas prompted the

United States’ promotion of strong international antitrust norms in the 1990s. Analyzing Congressional

documents and debates in the 1980s, it shows that American import-competing companies framed foreign

industrial policies as cartelization to legitimize their demands for trade protections within the dominant

framework of free markets and domestic antitrust laws. The political salience of this narrative in Congress

contributed to the preparation of the 1988 Trade Laws and the 1990 trade negotiations with Japan, which

formalized the United States’ preference for strong international antitrust norms during the 1990s. These

findings highlight that, ironically, ‘anti-market’ reasons can also motivate ‘pro-market’ norm diffusion.

4. 改革进程中咨询公司的政治经济学：世界卫生组织的案例（The political economy of

consulting firms in reform processes: the case of the World Health Organization）

Julian Eckl，瑞士圣加仑大学政治学博士

Tine Hanrieder，伦敦政治经济学院教授

【摘要】现有研究将咨询公司在政府间组织（IGOs）中的兴起主要解释为管理主义在全球蔓延的证据。

本文强调，咨询公司不仅仅是商业性世界文化规范的载体，也是有争议的政府间组织政治和治理的一

部分。本文揭开了咨询业的黑匣子，重构了咨询公司是如何受聘并活跃在政府间组织中的。通过分析

世界卫生组织（WHO）的经验，本文展示了政府间组织是如何非正式地向咨询公司（及其资助者）“开

放”的，本文还调查了这些特权在实践中的后果。咨询公司将各种声音和意见（包括他们自己的意见）

纳入一揽子改革方案，宣传某些内容，并采取自我放弃的做法，从而削弱了对利益攸关方的责任。对

于被排除在咨询协议之外或在咨询实践中被边缘化的行动者来说，咨询顾问的核心地位可能会产生削

弱其权力的影响。本文通过放大 2015 年世卫组织减疟伙伴关系以顾问为中介的改革，来说明本文的

一般性讨论。本文的分析基于原始文件、关键信息提供者访谈、非正式谈话和参与观察。

【原文】Existing research interprets the rise of consulting firms in intergovernmental organizations (IGOs)

primarily as evidence of the global spread of managerialism. We highlight that consultants are not merely

carriers of business-like world cultural norms, but also part of contentious IGO politics and governance. We

unpack the consulting black box and reconstruct how consulting firms are hired and active in IGOs. Analyzing

the experiences of the World Health Organization (WHO), we show how IGOs have been informally ‘opened

up’ to consulting firms (and to their funders) and we investigate what the consequences of their privileged

access are in practice. Consultants curate voices and input (including their own) into reform packages, promote

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certain contents, and engage in self-effacement practices that undermine accountability to stakeholders. The

pivotal position of the consultants can have a disempowering effect on actors excluded from the consulting

agreement or marginalized through consulting practices. We illustrate our general discussion by zooming in

on the consultant-mediated reform of WHO’s Roll Back Malaria partnership in 2015. Our analysis is based on

primary documents, key informant interviews, informal conversations, and participant observation.

5. 为能源未来融资：加拿大管道资产化的争议（Financing energy futures: the contested

assetization of pipelines in Canada）

Amy Janzwood，加拿大麦吉尔大学副教授

Kate J Neville，加拿大多伦多大学副教授

Sarah J. Martin，加拿大纽芬兰纪念大学副教授

【摘要】管道是一项技术和政治任务，同时也是一项经济壮举。当管道长期处于不确定状态时——尚

未建成且尚未取消——其结果似乎对任何人都没有好处：支持者面临着成本超支和监管之争，而可能

受影响的社区仍然受到干扰和剥夺的威胁。既然有如此这些负面结果，为什么此类项目会长期处于边

缘状态？为了回答这个问题，本文对加拿大两个有争议的石油管道提案——北方门户管道和跨山扩建

项目——进行了研究。在这两个案例中，本文发现这些管道复杂多变的财务安排产生了本文所说的“有

争议的资产化”。这一过程通过三个相互交织的动态因素进行：时间性（时间的坍塌和扩展）、市场估

值（特定形式的知识和专业实践）以及金融工具（合同、股权和其他金融安排）。支持者创造了复杂、

多层次的面向未来的可投资资产，调解了企业风险；与此同时，反对者瞄准了多种监管渠道，挑战了

估值体系，并强调了未来的社会和生态成本。本文发现，尽管战略性地使用这些动力会产生相互矛盾

的后果，但总体而言，这些金融流程强化了企业权力，延长了以化石燃料为基础的能源未来。

【原文】Pipelines are technological and political undertakings, but also financial feats. When pipelines are in

protracted states of uncertainty—not yet built, but not yet canceled—the outcomes seem not to benefit anyone:

proponents face cost overruns and regulatory battles, while potentially affected communities remain under

threat of disruption and dispossession. In light of these negative outcomes, why do such projects remain in

liminal states for so long? To answer this question, we interrogate two contested oil pipeline proposals in

Canada, the Northern Gateway Pipelines and the Trans Mountain Expansion projects. In both cases, we find

that the complex and shifting financial arrangements for these pipelines produced what we call ‘contested

assetization.’ This process operates through three intertwined dynamics: temporality (collapsing and

expanding time), market valuation (specific forms of knowledge and professional practices), and financial

tools (contractual, equity, and other financial arrangements). Proponents create complex, layered futureoriented investable assets, mediating corporate risk; at the same time, opponents target multiple regulatory

venues, challenge valuation systems, and highlight future social and ecological costs. We find that although

the strategic use of these dynamics has contradictory consequences, overall, these financial processes reinforce

corporate power, prolonging fossil fuel-based energy futures.

2024 年第 2 期（总第 14 期）

109

6. 宏观经济监督的思路：全球和区域金融组织国别报告的比较文本分析（Ideas for

macroeconomic surveillance: a comparative text analysis of country reports by global and

regional financial organizations）

Motoshi Suzuki，日本京都大学公共事务系教授

【摘要】全球金融秩序中的机构激增令人担忧全球和区域组织之间的协调失灵以及由此造成的混乱和

冲突。其中一个令人担忧的领域是宏观经济监督，这对于发现金融危机至关重要，因为这项任务存在

机构重叠。现有文献并没有提供关于这种协调的程度和决定因素的系统证据。为了填补这一空白，本

文比较了国际货币基金组织和东亚地区的监督机构，即“东盟+3”宏观经济研究办公室，将其国家报告

作为对东亚国家的监督成果。本文进行了基于词典的文本分析，以评估有关特定经济理念的关键术语

的使用模式。结果表明，各国报告之间存在大量相似之处，但也存在一些残余差异。这些结果表明，

他们通过使用一般和区域经济理念进行多方面的监督，在焦点效应的基础上进行非正式协调。这些研

究还表明，非正式性允许他们在决定一致行动和自主行动的政策类别时行使自由裁量权，从而为自主

——协调两难问题提供了有效的解决方案。通过这些讨论，本文的研究为研究人员和成员国政府提出

了重要的启示。

【原文】Institutional proliferation in the global financial order raises concerns about a failure of coordination

between global and regional organizations and the resulting confusion and conflict. One area of concern is

macroeconomic surveillance, which is crucial for the detection of financial crises as a task subject to

institutional overlaps. The existing literature does not provide systematic evidence on the extent and

determinants of such coordination. To fill this lacuna, we compare the International Monetary Fund and the

ASEAN Plus Three Macroeconomic Research Office, a surveillance agency in East Asia, using their country

reports as outcomes of their surveillance of East Asian countries. We conduct dictionary-based text analyses

to assess the usage patterns of key terms concerning particular economic ideas. The results demonstrate

substantial similarities between the country reports as well as some residual differences. These findings

suggest that they engage in informal coordination based on focal-point effects through the use of general and

regional economic ideas for multifaceted surveillance. They further suggest that informality permits them to

exercise discretion in deciding policy categories for aligned and autonomous actions, thereby providing an

efficient solution to an autonomy–coordination dilemma. Through these discussions, our study suggests

important implications for researchers and member governments.

7. 日内瓦效应：官员的职位影响他们对世贸组织优先事项的立场（The Geneva effect:

where officials sit influences where they stand on WTO priorities）

Bernard Hoekman，意大利佛罗伦萨欧洲大学研究所罗伯特舒曼高级研究中心全球经济学教授兼主任

Robert Wolfe，加拿大皇后大学政策研究学院的名誉教授

【摘要】驻日内瓦的成员国代表和驻各国首都的官员在世界贸易组织合作的优先事项上意见一致吗？

通过对贸易政策官员进行原创性调查，本文发现在日内瓦代表本国的受访者与驻各国首都的官员在机

构改革和政策问题上的优先顺序往往大相径庭。本文假设，这种“日内瓦效应”反映了首都的官僚主义

能力和驻日内瓦官员的自主性，而对于经合组织成员国的官员来说，这种效应应该较小，因为他们在

110

世贸组织之外进行了广泛的互动，以确定良好的监管政策并解决共同关心的贸易问题。实证分析支持

了这些假设，但也揭示了经合组织成员国驻日内瓦官员和驻首都官员在具体问题的优先次序上的差异。

结果表明，国际合作的前景可能不仅受到各国之间反映物质利益和国内政治经济驱动因素的众所周知

的差异的影响，而且还受到在国际组织中代表各国的官员和驻首都官员对问题的相对优先次序的差异

的影响。

【原文】Do representatives of member states in Geneva and officials based in capitals agree on priorities for

cooperation in the World Trade Organization? Exploiting an original survey of trade policy officials, we find

that respondents representing their countries in Geneva often accord substantially different priorities to

institutional reform and policy issues than officials based in capitals. We hypothesize that this ‘Geneva effect’

reflects bureaucratic capacity in capitals and autonomy of Geneva-based officials, and that the effect should

be smaller for officials from OECD member states, given extensive interaction outside the WTO to define

good regulatory policies and address trade issues of common concern. Empirical analysis supports these

hypotheses but also reveals differences in prioritization between Geneva and capital-based officials from

OECD countries for specific issues. The results suggest that the prospects of international cooperation may be

influenced not only by well-understood differences between states that reflect material interests and domestic

political economy drivers, but by differences in relative priorities accorded to issues by officials representing

states in international organizations and officials based in capitals.

8. 为谁发展？美国国际开发署在乌克兰顿巴斯的案例（Development for whom? The

case of USAID in Ukraine’s Donbas）

Oleksandr Svitych，印度金达尔全球大学副教授

【摘要】这篇评论调查了国际非政府组织、捐助机构及其发展承包商之间的联系，以此作为乌克兰东

部资本主义积累和新自由主义合理性的框架。随着 2014 年与俄罗斯爆发混合战争（八年后演变为全

面战争），顿巴斯地区的政府控制区参与了多个发展项目。这篇评论通过关注美国国际开发署（USAID）

在重组当地经济和生计方面的作用，对此类发展政策进行了批判性研究。本文将重点放在美国国际开

发署的“经济恢复活动”（ERA）上，以证明捐助项目是资本主义积累（对发展承包商而言）和新自由

主义责任化（对受冲突影响的公民而言）的机制。分析指出了乌克兰顿巴斯地区的发展不平衡和（新）

自由主义和平谬误。同时，它也证实了全球政治经济学的一个大趋势，即用关于脆弱性、复原力和妇

女赋权的自由主义论述来掩盖发展资本的利益。

【原文】This commentary investigates the linkages between international NGOs, donor agencies, and their

development contractors as a framework for capitalist accumulation and neoliberal rationality in eastern

Ukraine. With the onset of a hybrid war with Russia in 2014 – turned into a full-scale war eight years later –

the government-controlled areas of the Donbas region have participated in multiple development programs.

This commentary critically examines such development policies by focusing on the role of USAID in

restructuring local economies and livelihoods. I focus on the USAID Economic Resilience Activity (ERA) to

demonstrate that donor programs serve as mechanisms of capitalist accumulation (for development contractors)

and neoliberal responsibilization (for conflict-affected citizens). The analysis points to uneven development

2024 年第 2 期（总第 14 期）

111

and the (neo)liberal peace fallacy in Ukraine’s Donbas. At the same time, it corroborates a wider trend in

global political economy to obfuscate the interests of development capital with liberal discourses of

vulnerability, resilience, and women’s empowerment.

9. 全球价值和财富的纠缠链（Entangled chains of global value and wealth）

Jennifer Bair，美国弗吉尼亚大学社会学系教授

Stefano Ponte，丹麦哥本哈根商学院商业与政治系教授

Leonard Seabrooke，丹麦哥本哈根商学院国际政治经济与经济社会学系教授

Duncan Wigan，丹麦哥本哈根商学院国际组织系副教授

【摘要】近几十年来，跨国企业开发出了通过全球价值链（GVCs）重组生产和贸易，以及通过全球财

富链（GWCs）管理资产和负债的方法。这种共同演变使得人们能够通过金融和法律技术过度榨取劳

动力和自然资源，从而将价值创造与财富积累纠缠在一起。虽然学者们已分别承认全球价值链和全球

供应链在产生分配结果方面所发挥的作用，但生产、贸易、金融和法律之间的纠葛现在已非常广泛，

本文需要一个更清晰的分析视角来理解它们之间的相互关系。为了找到这样一个视角，本文提出了一

个以产业链纠葛为重点的研究议程。本文认为，全球价值链和全球供应链不是由企业作为独立的甚至

是有序的过程来管理的，而是以值得仔细研究的方式交织在一起的价值创造和财富积累战略。本文从

两个维度建立了一个分析纠缠链的框架：1）无形资产与有形资产的相对重要性；2）企业战略对价值

创造或财富积累活动的导向。通过行业层面的实例，本文发现全球价值链与全球供应链之间的纠葛有

一个普遍趋势，即利用无形价值和资产进行财富积累的活动。本文还注意到，劳工和公民行动主义如

何能够凸显现有监管和财政体系的失误，并干预纠缠在一起的产业链上的分配斗争。

【原文】In recent decades multinational enterprises have developed ways to reorganize production and trade

through Global Value Chains (GVCs), and to manage assets and liabilities through Global Wealth Chains

(GWCs). This co-evolution has permitted the hyper-extraction of labor and natural resources through financial

and legal technologies, entangling value creation and wealth accumulation. While scholars have separately

acknowledged the role that GVCs and GWCs play in generating distributional outcomes, entanglements of

production, trade, finance, and law are now so extensive that we need a sharper analytical lens to understand

their interrelations. In pursuit of such a lens, we propose a research agenda focused on chain entanglements.

We argue that GVCs and GWCs are not governed by firms as separate or even sequenced processes, but rather

that value creation and wealth accumulation strategies are imbricated in ways that merit careful study. We

develop a framework for analyzing entangled chains based on two dimensions: 1) the relative importance of

intangible versus tangible assets; and 2) the orientation of firm strategy towards value creation or wealth

accumulation activities. Drawing on sector-level examples, we see a general trend in GVC-GWC

entanglements towards activities that leverage intangible value and assets for wealth accumulation. We also

note how labor and civic activism can highlight the failures of extant regulatory and fiscal systems and

intervene on distributional struggles along entangled chains.

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【编译：朱嘉成 崔育涞】

【责任编辑：封欣怡】

《国际安全》（International Security）

International Security， Vol.48, No.2, 2023

1. 种族主义，刻板印象和战争（Racism, Stereotypes, and War）

Jonathan Mercer，美国华盛顿大学政治学教授。

【摘要】种族主义有系统地扭曲了政策制定者对他们的盟友和相对于对手的实力、利益和决心的分析，

这可能导致在战争与和平方面做出代价高昂的选择。当政策制定者持有种族主义的信念时，就像在日

俄战争（1904-1905）中一样，他们的信念会影响他们解释和预测他们盟友和对手的行为的方式。对种

族主义刻板印象的依赖会导致政策制定者不准确的评估。一份对刻板印象、声誉和偏执的研究表明，

声誉可以轻易的转化成刻板印象：这会使任何根据他人声誉做出政策决策或鼓励政策制定者这样做的

人感到不安。国际安全学者显然很大程度上忽视了种族主义的作用，假设政策制定者会作出理性的选

择。研究证明这种假设是错误的。

【原文】Racism systematically distorts policymakers’ analyses of their allies’ and adversaries’ capabilities,

interests, and resolve, potentially leading to costly choices regarding war and peace. When policymakers hold

racist beliefs, as they did in the Russo-Japanese War (1904–1905), their beliefs influence how they explain

and predict their allies’ and adversaries’ behaviors. Reliance on racist stereotypes leads policymakers to

inaccurate assessments. An analysis of the relationship between stereotypes, reputations, and bigotry indicates

that reputations easily become stereotypes—which is discomforting to anyone who bases policy decisions on

another's reputation or encourages policymakers to do so. International security scholars have largely

overlooked the role of racism, assuming rational choices on the part of policymakers. Research demonstrates

that this assumption is wrong.

2. 干预者陷阱：麦金利，菲律宾和放手的困难（The Meddler's Trap：McKinley, the

Philippines, and the Difficulty of Letting Go）

Aroop Mukharji，美国参议院外交关系委员会国际事务研究员

《国际安全》（International Security）发表有关当代安全

问题的全面清晰、文献翔实的文章。文章涉及战争与和平

的传统主题，以及安全的最新层面，包括环境、人口、人

道主义问题、跨国网络和新兴技术。40 多年来，《国际安

全》界定了美国国家安全政策的争论，并为国际安全事务

的研究制定了议程。2021 年该期刊的影响因子为 7.179，

在国际关系期刊中排名第 2。

2024 年第 2 期（总第 14 期）

113

【摘要】从越南到阿富汗，美国领导人在摆脱远程军事干预方面一直存在巨大困难。威廉·麦金利在

1898 年吞并菲律宾的决定揭示了原因：这源于一个“干预者陷阱”的现象。干预者陷阱指的是一种自我

纠缠的情况，即领导人通过军事干预无意中制造了问题，并认为自己可以解决，且因为最初干预的缘

故，从而更加重视解决新问题。这种过度的评估是由于一种被称作禀赋效应的认知偏差：个体倾向于

高估他们自己拥有的物品。军事干预会导致对他国领土的所有权感，这就触发了禀赋效应。1809 年，

美国在马尼拉的战争中取得胜利后，麦金利怀疑菲律宾的自治能力，相信美国从菲律宾撤出将会导致

混乱和大国战争，同时他相信美国的治理可以阻止这种局面的产生。因为麦金利已经在菲律宾部署了

军队，他会对这些军队产生所有权，同时这种禀赋效应会助涨他对菲律宾群岛的评估。这些相互强化

的信念产生了干预者陷阱，成为美国在西半球之外最大规模的吞并。

【原文】From Vietnam to Afghanistan, U.S. leaders have had great difficulty disentangling the United States

from faraway military interventions. William McKinley's 1898 decision to annex the Philippines reveals why,

through a phenomenon called the “meddler's trap.” The meddler's trap denotes a situation of self-entanglement,

whereby a leader inadvertently creates a problem through military intervention, feels they can solve it, and

values solving the new problem more because of the initial intervention. The inflated valuation is driven by a

cognitive bias called the endowment effect, according to which individuals tend to overvalue goods they feel

they own. A military intervention causes a feeling of ownership of the foreign territory, triggering the

endowment effect. Following the U.S. victory in Manila during the War of 1898, McKinley doubted Filipino

civilizational capacity to self-govern, believed that a U.S. departure from the Philippines would cause chaos

and great power war, and believed that U.S. governance could forestall that outcome. Because he had already

deployed troops to the Philippines, McKinley also felt ownership over them, and this endowment effect

inflated his valuation of the archipelago. Together, these mutually reinforcing beliefs produced the meddler's

trap and the United States’ largest annexation outside its hemisphere.

3. 种族化和国际安全（Racialization and International Security）

Richard W. Maass，美国欧道明大学政治学教授

【摘要】种族化—即将种族身份和影响融入社会和政治现象的过程；是一种权力的主张，一种对所谓

固有差异的主张，这种差异已经渗透到现代外交、秩序和暴力中。尽管该领域一直对权力保持兴趣，

但美国的国际安全研究在长达数十年对国际冲突和合作、核扩散、权力转移、单极化、内战、恐怖主

义、国际秩序、大战略等的辩论中，很大程度上遗漏了种族这一元素。一个新的框架奠定了概念基础，

将相关的文献和在国际安全的主要研究联系起来，培养跨学科对话，同时为考虑公开的和内嵌的种族

化如何塑造国际安全的研究和实践开辟了有前景的道路。对整合种族化到现有和新的研究议程中的若

干研究设计挑战的讨论帮助学者重新思考他们如何对待种族与安全问题。除了使教学本身多样化之外，

揭示和反击固有的偏见对确定可替代的观点是如何被边缘化以及最终发展更好的理论是至关重要的。

【原文】Racialization—the processes that infuse social and political phenomena with racial identities and

implications—is an assertion of power, a claim of purportedly inherent differences that has saturated modern

diplomacy, order, and violence. Despite the field's consistent interest in power, international security studies

in the United States largely omitted racial dynamics from decades of debates about international conflict and

cooperation, nuclear proliferation, power transitions, unipolarity, civil wars, terrorism, international order,

grand strategy, and other subjects. A new framework lays conceptual bedrock, links relevant literatures to

major research agendas in international security, cultivates interdisciplinary dialogues, and charts promising

paths to consider how overt and embedded racialization shape the study and practice of international security.

A discussion of several research design challenges for integrating racialization into existing and new research

114

agendas helps scholars reconsider how they approach questions of race and security. Beyond diversifying the

professoriat itself, revealing and countering embedded biases are crucial to determine how alternative ideas

have been marginalized, and, ultimately, to develop better theories.

4. “没有硝烟的战争”：全球供应链，权力转移和经济方略（“Wars without Gun

Smoke”: Global Supply Chains, Power Transitions, and Economic Statecraft）

Ling S. Chen，美国约翰·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院助理教授

Miles M. Evers，美国康涅狄格大学政治学助理教授

【摘要】传统观点认为，冲突更有可能在衰落和崛起的大国间进行权力转移时发生。全球供应链的扩

散为发动这些冲突的大国提供了新的经济武器，但是构建全球供应链的企业可能会使它们更难或者更

容易的这样做。一种关于企业和国家间关系的结构性的理论展现了权力转移如何影响一个国家行使经

济方略的能力。随着主导大国和崛起大国接近平等，它们面临着利用经济方略来实现经济脱钩的结构

性激励。由此产生的对企业利润的威胁改变了企业和国家间关系：在主导大国中的高价值企业趋向于

反对其国家对经济方略的运用，然而在崛起中国家的低价值企业趋向于和国家使用的经济方略相协作。

1890 年到 1914 年的英德权力转移和自 1990 年以来的美中权力转移阐明了这一理论。这些发现改变

了关于在现代大国竞争中使用经济方略的学术争论，并对将供应链武器化以应对中国等新兴大国具有

政策意义。

【原文】Conventional wisdom holds that conflict is highly likely during a power transition between declining

and rising powers. The spread of global supply chains has provided new economic weapons for great powers

waging these conflicts, but the businesses that constitute global supply chains can make it harder or easier for

them to do so. A structural theory of business-state relations shows how power transitions affect a state's ability

to exercise economic statecraft. As a dominant power and a rising power approach parity, they face structural

incentives to use economic statecraft to decouple their economies. The resulting threat to businesses’ profits

changes business-state relations: high-value businesses within the dominant power tend to oppose their state's

use of economic statecraft, whereas low-value businesses within the rising power tend to cooperate with their

state's use of economic statecraft. The Anglo-German power transition from 1890 to 1914 and the U.S.-China

power transition since 1990 illustrate the theory. The findings shift scholarly debates on the use of economic

statecraft in modern great power competition and have policy implications for weaponizing supply chains

against rising powers like China.

【编译：王涵婧】

【责任编辑：封欣怡】

2024 年第 2 期（总第 14 期）

115

《国际关系》（International Relations）

International Relations，Vol. 37, No. 4, 2023

1. 结束冲突的组合：流行文化、全球政治和战争的结束（Assemblages of conflict

termination: popular culture, global politics and the end of wars）

Cahir O’Doherty，荷兰格罗宁根大学国际关系讲师

【摘要】战争如何结束的问题一直具有重要意义，尤其是在反恐战争持续进行的背景下。传统上，国

际关系学界历来通过理性选择理论、逻辑建模和博弈论来探讨这一问题。这些方法越来越不适合描述

现代战争，尤其无法把握反恐战争的复杂性和模糊性。这些战争中的含混不清往往与政治和公众希望

在战争中取得决定性胜利的愿望相悖。本文以战争结束研究（War Termination Studies）中近期的重要

工作为基础，将战争结束重新概念化为集合体。通过更多地关注围绕战争的政治言论所灌输的影响，

并利用情感（affect）和涌现（emergence）的概念，本文提出了一种研究当代战争结束的新方法。大

众文化日益被视为全球政治的重要场域，本文分析的案例研究利用大众文化，提出了这样一个论点，

即牺牲作为一种特例从电影和总统辞令中出现，使领导人能够在实地条件不确定的情况下宣称战争胜

利。通过情感上的电影接触（在此通过战争结束的组合概念化），观众更倾向于接受这种政治主张。

【原文】The question of how wars end is of continued importance, especially in the context of the ongoing

War on Terror. This question has traditionally been approached within International Relations through rational

choice theories, logical modelling and game theory. Such approaches have become increasingly ill-suited to

capturing the complexity and ambiguity of contemporary warfare and the War on Terror in particular. These

battlefield ambiguities are often at odds with political and public desires to see decisive victory in wars. This

article builds on recent critical work within War Termination Studies in order to re-conceptualise the end of

war as assemblages. By paying greater attention to the affects inculcated by political rhetoric surrounding war

and utilising the concepts of affect and emergence, this article presents a novel approach to the study of

contemporary war termination. Utilising popular culture, increasingly seen as a crucial site of global politics,

the case study analysed here advances the argument that sacrifice emerges from cinema and presidential

《国际关系》（International Relations）是国际关系领域的

顶尖期刊之一，由 SAGE 出版社与大卫·戴维斯纪念研究

所（David Davies Memorial Institute）联合出版编辑，其

2020 年的影响因子为 2.135。

116

rhetoric as a trope that allows leaders to claim victory in war despite indecisive conditions of the ground.

Through affective cinematic encounters, conceptualised here through the end of wars assemblages, audiences

can become more accepting of such political claims.

2. 联合国教科文组织世界遗产名录：权力、国家利益和专业知识（UNESCO’s World Heritage

List: power, national interest, and expertise）

Deborah Barros Leal Farias，新南威尔士大学悉尼分校高级讲师

【摘要】《世界遗产公约》的成员几乎遍及全球，是全球遗产治理的核心。该公约隶属于联合国教科

文组织，设定了确定哪些自然和/或文化遗址可以获得“世界遗产”的称号并被列入世界遗产名录的参

数。20 世纪 70 年代初以来，以专家为基础的遗产保护分类程序，已经成为一个公开的政治程序，以

及对从世界遗产名录获得国内和国际权力感兴趣的国家竞争的温床。本文以这一实证案例为出发点，

反思两个相互关联的关键问题：国际组织对专业知识和分类的政治化，以及遗产作为国家认同项目和

“软实力”的投射。在此过程中，本文强调了自 19 世纪末以来全球体系的变化——例如殖民主义、

冷战、“新兴”大国——是如何影响全球遗产政治的。本文主要通过基于建构主义的方法，立足于国

际关系文献，为世界遗产研究这一跨学科领域增添了新的内容。

【原文】With almost universal membership, the World Heritage Convention is at the heart of the global

governance of heritage. Nested within UNESCO, the Convention sets the parameters for determining which

natural and/or cultural sites can receive the prestigious ‘World Heritage Property’ designation and be added to

the World Heritage List. What started in the early 1970s as an expert-based classification procedure focused

on heritage preservation has become an ostensive political process, and a hotbed of competing nations

interested in the domestic and international power deriving from inscriptions in the World Heritage List. This

paper takes this empirical case as a springboard to reflect upon two key interrelated issues: the politicization

of expertise and classification by International Organizations, and heritage as a national identity project and

projection of ‘soft power’. In doing so, it highlights how changes in the global system since the late 19th

century – for example, colonialism, Cold War, ‘emerging’ powers – affected the global politics of heritage.

The paper adds to the incredibly trans-disciplinary field of world heritage research by anchoring itself in

International Relations literature, mostly through a Constructivist-based approach.

3. 全球经济治理中改善现状与挑战现状的变革：以中国金融和贸易为例（Status-quo

enhancing versus status-quo challenging change in global economic governance: the case

of China in finance and trade）

Michael Sampson，莱顿大学政治科学研究所国际关系助理教授

Jue Wang，莱顿大学区域研究所助理教授

【摘要】当一个国家对一个国际制度不满意时，它可以采取不同的策略来实现变革。通过对制度复杂

性和制度选择领域的研究，人们对这些策略的理解越来越深入。但是，虽然人们了解制度结构如何影

响不同变革建议的成功机会，但对变革建议的内容如何影响其成功却不甚了解。在本文中，作者将提

议的制度变革分解为两个子类型：挑战现状型和改善现状型。改善现状的变革推动改革，促进现有制

2024 年第 2 期（总第 14 期）

117

度目标的实现，因此有助于推动变革，否则现有制度的惰性会限制变革的进行。相反，挑战现状的变

革则会破坏现有制度的既定目标。本文通过比较中国为确保全球金融和贸易体制变革所做的尝试，发

现对中国而言，“改善现状”型变革比“挑战现状”型变革更成功，因为它们为建立富有成效的联盟

创造了更多机会。

【原文】When a state is dissatisfied with an international institution it has different strategies available to it

to secure change. These strategies are increasingly well understood due to research in the areas of regime

complexity and institutional selection. But while there is an understanding of how the structure of a regime

can influence the chances of success of different change proposals, there is less clarity on how the content of

proposed changes impacts their success. In this article we decompose proposed institutional changes into two

sub-types: Status-quo challenging and status-quo enhancing. Status-quo enhancing changes promote reforms

that advance the objectives of the existing regime and so serve to drive change that would otherwise be limited

by the inertia of existing institutions. Conversely, status-quo challenging changes undermine the stated goals

of the existing regime. We develop these sub-types by comparing China’s attempts to secure changes in the

global finance and trade regimes and find that for China status-quo enhancing changes have met with more

success than status-quo challenging approaches because they have created more opportunities for productive

coalition building.

4. 理论的时间视角：导致理论的不足（A theory’s time perspectives: contributing to a

theory’s inadequacy）

Christopher James Wheeler，纽卡斯尔大学国际政治系前讲师

【摘要】理论既可以对未来有所启示，也可以为判断未来提供依据。然而，无论哪种情况，理论都不

足以获得对未来的洞察力，这是信息获取、信息质量或方法论方面的任何进步都无法克服的。本文认

为，由于理论中蕴含的长期和短期时间视角，这种不足依然存在，而且无法完全克服。本文以摩根索

的国际政治理论中的时间视角为例，说明并分析了理论中的长期和短期时间视角是如何限定理论中或

理论衍生出的对未来的主张或判断的。随后，读者将深入了解如何将长期和短期时间视角概念化、识

别和区分理论中时间视角的方法，以及当存在多种时间视角时，不同时间视角在理论中的发挥的作用。

【原文】Theories can either have something to say about the future or provide foundations for making

judgments about the future. In either case, however, a theory remains inadequate for obtaining insights about

the future which no amount of advancements in information access and quality or methodologies can overcome.

This article suggests that inadequacy persists and cannot be completely overcome because of the long-term

and short-term time perspectives embedded within a theory. Using illustrative examples of time perspectives

from Morgenthau’s theory of international politics, this article illustrates and analyses how long-term and

short-term time perspectives within a theory delimit claims or judgments about the future made within or

derived from a theory. Subsequently, readers gain insights on how to conceptualise long-term and short-term

time perspectives, methods for identifying and differentiating between time perspectives within a theory and

the distinct work time perspectives perform within a theory when multiple time perspectives are present.

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5. 家庭与世界：马蒂·科斯肯涅米的法律想象力（Home and the world: the legal

imagination of Martti Koskenniemi）

David Armitage，哈佛大学历史学教授

【摘要】芬兰律师兼史学家马尔蒂·科斯肯涅米（Martti Koskenniemi）的新著《到地球最远的地方：

法律想象力和国际权力，1300—1870 年》（2021 年）是一项长达 30 年、致力于解构国际法专业的主

流假设并将其历史化的项目都结晶。本文综合科斯肯涅米更大的重要项目都背景及 19 世纪末至今的

国际法史学范围来评估此书。本文认为，科斯肯涅米的系谱学方法既有启发性，也有令人沮丧之处：

令人沮丧之处在于其分散性和缺乏总体论证，但启发性在于其揭示了范围、博学和破坏传统目的论的

野心，揭示了法律语言的约束力，揭露了 500 多年来欧洲“国内法”与国际法之间的对话。

【原文】The Finnish lawyer-historian Martti Koskenniemi’s new book, To the Uttermost Parts of the Earth:

Legal Imagination and International Power, 1300–1870 (2021), is the culmination of a 30-year-long project to

deconstruct and historicise the reigning assumptions of the profession of international law. This article

evaluates To the Uttermost Parts of the Earth in the context of Koskenniemi’s larger critical project as well as

within the historiography of international law from the late 19th century to the present. It argues that

Koskenniemi’s genealogical method is revealing and frustrating in equal measure: frustrating in its diffuseness

and lack of overarching argument but revealing in its scope, in its erudition and in its ambitions to disrupt

traditional teleologies, to reveal the constraining force of legal language and to expose European dialogues

between ‘domestic’ and international law over more than 500 years.

【编译： 邹梓轩】

【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

《国际研究季刊》（International Studies Quarterly）

《国际研究季刊》（International Studies Quarterly）是国

际研究协会（ISA）的旗舰期刊，旨在发布与国际研究中重

要的理论、实证和规范主题相关的领先学者研究。期刊文

章以富有意义的方式探索跨国的政治、经济、社会或文化

进程，旨在为解释性难题提供答案、展示原创性研究、探

讨国际理论主题，或以其他方式介入学科辩论，兼具学术

和政策意义。2022-2023 年期刊影响因子为 2.6。

2024 年第 2 期（总第 14 期）

119

International Studies Quarterly， Vol. 68, No. 1, 2024

1. 塑造记忆：亚美尼亚种族灭绝在欧洲的承认（Memory Entrepreneurship: Armenian

Genocide Recognition in Europe）

Daniel Fittante，瑞典南顿大学博士后

【摘要】学者通过分析欧洲国家的历史记忆法（memory laws），探究了政治行为体如何利用与大屠杀

相关的法律规定粉饰历史以及颠覆民主传统。不过，欧洲的政治行为体也曾就其他几部历史记忆法进

行过辩论，极右翼议员们利用这些法律来达到自己的目的。对亚美尼亚种族灭绝的承认就是这种现象

的一个未被充分研究的例子。根据在保加利亚、捷克共和国、拉脱维亚和瑞典四国收集的数据，本文

采用记忆合理化（memory justification）和记忆外推化（memory extrapolation）的修辞策略，研究极右

翼议员如何在截然不同的地缘政治背景下挪用并操纵亚美尼亚种族灭绝的记忆，从而攻击多元主义和

推广自身认同的欧洲模板。本文通过对工具化亚美尼亚种族灭绝事件的分析，探讨了当代欧洲政治核

心中日益严重的危机。这场危机牵涉到目标和价值观迥异的行为体，正日益严重地威胁到欧洲的社会

政治凝聚力。

【原文】Scholars have analyzed how political actors appropriate Holocaust-related memory laws to whitewash

the past and undermine democratic traditions in various European countries. However, political actors in

Europe have debated several other memory laws, which far-right MPs appropriate to serve their own purposes.

The recognition of the Armenian Genocide is an understudied example of this phenomenon. Drawing from

data collected in four countries—Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Latvia, and Sweden—this analysis introduces

the rhetorical strategies of memory justification and memory extrapolation to examine how far-right MPs, in

very distinct geopolitical contexts, appropriate and instrumentalize Armenian Genocide memory to attack

pluralism and promote their own versions of Europe. Through an analysis of the instrumentalization of the

Armenian Genocide, this article examines a growing crisis at the center of contemporary European politics.

This crisis, which involves actors promoting very different goals and values, increasingly threatens the sociopolitical cohesion of Europe.

2. 塑造国际协议的超级网络：气候变化与核武器领域的比较（Super-Networks Shaping

International Agreements: Comparing the Climate Change and Nuclear Weapons Arenas）

Andrea Schapper，斯特灵大学国际政治系教授

Megan Dee，斯特灵大学国际政治系高级讲师

【摘要】尽管国际关系学界针对跨国倡议网络（TANs）的研究已经非常成熟，但关于跨国倡议网络在

跨政策领域的合作仍然存在知识空白。为了填补这一空白，本文重点介绍了超级网络（高于单个跨国

倡议网络的倡议网络）是如何在各个议题领域出现的，并探讨了实现其目标和达成国际协议的策略。

本文建立了一个分析框架以理解超级网络如何运作，强调政治机会结构、动员结构和策略之间重要的

相互作用，并通过比较案例研究法来应用这一框架，分析了跨选区联盟（Inter-Constituency Alliance）

和国际废除核武器运动（International Campaign for the Abolition of Nuclear Weapons），前者的宣传促

使人权话语被纳入 2015 年的《巴黎气候协定》，后者基于人道主义原则开展的活动促成了 2017 年

的《禁止核武器条约》。本文发现，超级网络利用一揽子方法策略（a package approach tactic）展多层

次宣传活动。通过一揽子方法，超级网络将来自不同议题领域的多种观点综合归纳成基于人道主义框

架的关键信息，进而增强自身的道德影响力和合法性，促使国家更加难以忽视它们的关切。

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【原文】While research on transnational advocacy networks (TANs) is well established in international

relations, knowledge gaps remain concerning TAN collaboration across policy fields. To address this gap, this

article highlights how super-networks (networks above individual TANs) emerge across issue areas and

explores the tactics utilized to achieve their objectives and shape international agreements. We develop an

analytical framework that emphasizes the important interplay between political opportunity structures,

mobilizing structures, and tactics in understanding how super-networks operate. We apply this framework via

a comparative case study approach, analyzing the Inter-Constituency Alliance, whose advocacy brought about

the inclusion of human rights language in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, and the International Campaign

for the Abolition of Nuclear Weapons, whose activities based on humanitarian principles resulted in the 2017

Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. Contributing new knowledge to TANs research, we identify

that super-networks utilize multilevel advocacy activities that draw upon a package approach tactic. Via the

package approach, super-networks synthesize multiple voices from different issue areas into one key message

grounded in humanitarian framing, thereby enhancing their moral leverage and legitimacy, making it more

difficult for states to neglect their concerns.

3. 军事演习和网络效应（Military Exercises and Network Effects）

Kevin Galambo，美国德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校政府系博士生，亚利桑那大学博士后研究员

【摘要】从 1980 年到 2016 年，参加多国军事演习（MME）的国家比例增加了 20 倍。是什么原因

导致了这种激增？现有研究侧重于大国的作用和国际体系的性质，但无法解释没有大国参与的演习

或多国军事演习数量的持续增长。本文将国际体系中主要行为体之间的军演模式概念化为网络。推

理网络分析工具显示，流行性、传递性和记忆性等高阶效应增加了各国进行军事合作的可能性。多

种联系嵌套的国家拥有吸引合作伙伴的制度知识和威望。在多国联盟形成的过程中，友国会增加信

任并产生正反馈，且过去的合作降低了未来合作的成本。实证分析表明，在这些相互依存的过程的

驱动下，多国军事合作不断演化成网络结构是一种新兴属性，而大国和联盟等传统安全合作解释的

影响力会随时间的推移而下降。

【原文】Between 1980 and 2016, the percentage of states that partnered in a multinational military exercise

(MME) increased twenty-fold. What explains this proliferation? Existing studies focus on the role of major

powers and polarity but fail to explain exercises without great powers or the continuous growth of MME

participation. I conceptualize patterns of exercises among all members of the international system as networks.

Inferential network analysis shows that higher-order effects like popularity, transitivity, and memory increase

the probability that states cooperate militarily. Countries with many connections have institutional knowledge

and prestige to attract partners. Multinational coalitions form where mutual friends increase trust and create

positive feedback. Past cooperation lowers the costs of future partnerships. Empirical analysis shows that the

evolving network structure of MMEs is an emergent property driven by these interdependent processes, and

that traditional explanations for security cooperation like great powers and alliances decrease in influence over

time.

4. 半导体供应链中的跨网络武器化 （ Cross-Network Weaponization in the

Semiconductor Supply Chain）

2024 年第 2 期（总第 14 期）

121

Guillaume Beaumier，加拿大国立政府行政学院助理教授

Madison Cartwright，澳大利亚新南威尔士大学讲师

【摘要】国家在多个且相互关联的经济网络中的地位如何影响其权力？武器化相互依赖（WI）相关的

学术研究强调，处于全球经济网络中心能为国家带来新的胁迫（他国）的来源。本文探讨了在多网络

中的地位如何相互影响，从而创造出新的机遇和弱点。本文利用网络分析法绘制了半导体供应链图，

并提出可以将其视为四个相互关联的网络：（1）设计、（2）原材料、（3）制造设备和（4）组装芯

片。随后本文强调了国家在这些网络中的中心地位是如何变化的，以及这种变化如何塑造了它们各自

的机遇——以权力优势胁迫他国。以美国为具体案例，本文解释了在设计网络中的中心地位如何使其

能够在组装芯片的贸易网络中占据有利位置。本文有如下贡献，首先，阐明多种经济网络之间的互动

为国家提供了将相互依存武器化的新机遇；其次，尝试利用网络分析法探究国际体系结构性权力；最

后，展示网络分析法如何帮助发现潜在的（或滥用的）武器化相互依赖，以及武器化的潜力如何随着

时间的推移而演变。

【原文】How do states’ positions across multiple and interconnected economic networks affect their power?

The Weaponized Interdependence (WI) scholarship emphasizes that states centrally located in global

economic networks have access to new sources of coercion. In this paper, we look at how their positions across

multiple networks interact with each other to create new opportunities and vulnerabilities. We use network

analysis to map the semiconductor supply chain and show that it can be viewed as four interrelated networks:

(1) design, (2) raw material, (3) manufacturing equipment, and (4) assembled chips. We then highlight how

states’ centrality varies across these networks and how it shapes their respective opportunities for coercion.

Looking specifically at the United States, we emphasize how its centrality in the design network enables it to

weaponize chokepoints in the trade network of assembled chips. In so doing the paper makes three

contributions. First, it highlights how interactions among multiple economic networks provide new

opportunities for states to weaponize interdependence. Second, it contributes to recent attempts using network

analysis to analyze structural power on the global stage. Last, it demonstrates how network methodology can

help detect potential (ab)uses of WI and how the potential for weaponization evolves over time.

5. 选举效应：群体间冲突中的民主领袖（The Election Effect: Democratic Leaders in

Inter-Group Conflict）

Stephen Chaudoin，哈佛大学政治系助理教授

Sarah Hummel，哈佛大学政府系的客座助理教授

Yon Soo Park，哈佛大学政府系博士生

【摘要】当选的经历如何改变继任领导者在国际上的行为？本文论证了选举效应的存在：通过这种效

应，民主选举加强了内部群体的认同，并产生了对选民的义务感，但增加了对外部群体的敌意。这种

综合效应会导致领导人在与其他群体竞争时付出过高的代价。通过一项在线研究室实验，本文证明了

对民主领导人的选择会增加群体间的竞争博弈，而这种竞争与国家间冲突有着共同的特征。本文采用

一种精心设计的分解策略，将选举效应与通俗意义上的选择效应区分开来，而在选择效应中领导人是

非随机选出的。本文结论在于，尽管民主选举在群体内部普遍产生积极影响，但在群体间博弈中具有

负面影响。

【原文】How does the experience of being elected alter subsequent leader behavior at the international level?

We argue for the existence of an election effect, through which a democratic election intensifies in-group

identification and generates a sense of obligation to voters, while simultaneously increasing out-group hostility.

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These combined effects cause leaders to overexert costly efforts in competitive situations against other groups.

Using an online laboratory experiment, we show that democratic leader selection increases effort in intergroup contest games, which share key features with interstate conflicts. We use a carefully specified

decomposition strategy to distinguish the election effect from better-known selection effects, wherein eventual

leaders are nonrandomly chosen. Our results show that a democratic election has negative implications in

inter-group games, despite the near-universally positive effects of democracy found in intra-group ones.

6. “惩罚者”的困境：国内反对派与外交政策危机（The Punisher's Dilemma: Domestic

Opposition and Foreign Policy Crises）

Fahd Humayun，塔夫茨大学政治学系助理教授

【摘要】现有对外交政策的民主问责研究表明，当执政者在外交上使国家蒙受损失时，后果包括但不

限于在危机中下台、作出代价高昂的妥协或接受失败，国内的反对派政治家会在批评政府与国家利益

之间权衡。然而，本文聚焦解释民主巩固政体中的反对派行为。本文认为，尽管在制度薄弱的政权中，

具有选举竞争力的反对派能够且经常批评民选继任政府在外交政策方面做出代价高昂的颠覆行为，但

如果他们认为这种批评可能会对民主稳定产生负面影响，而且可能导致国内领导层的非正常更替并因

此阻碍反对派上台，那么他们就不太可能这样做。本文在针对隶属于巴基斯坦最大政党的 430 名党工

进行的调查实验中验证了这一假设，称其为“反对派实用主义”，并在一个规模较小但高度精英化的 202

名巴基斯坦立法者样本中发现了结果一致的效应。

【原文】Existing work on the democratic accountability of foreign policy suggests that when an incumbent

incurs foreign policy losses, including but not limited to standing down in a crisis, making costly compromises,

or accepting defeat abroad, opposition politicians at home weigh criticizing the government with the national

interest. But this work has largely been developed with a view to explaining oppositional behavior in

consolidated democracies. I argue that while electorally competitive oppositions in weakly institutionalized

regimes can and frequently do criticize elected incumbents for costly foreign policy reversals, they are less

likely to do so if they believe this criticism may negatively affect democratic stability and potentially invite

irregular leadership turnover, as this would prevent the opposition from coming into office. I find support for

this hypothesis, which I term oppositional pragmatism, in a survey experiment on 430 political party workers

affiliated with Pakistan's biggest political party and directionally consistent effects on a smaller but highly elite

sample of 202 Pakistani legislators.

7. 以主权换自决权（Trading Sovereignty for Self-Determination）

Katherine M Beall，卫斯理学院政治学系客座讲师

【摘要】弱国或附属国，尤其是有过被殖民化和帝国主义统治历史的国家，历来是严格制度化和遵守

不干涉原则的最有力的倡导者。这些国家极易受到国际压力的影响，且试图通过“死守”主权来缓解这

种压力。然而，在坚持不干涉原则立场的几十年后，许多国家开始将广泛的“可干涉”权力委托给其所

在的地区组织。造成这种变化的原因何在？本文以拉美国家领导人决定向美洲国家组织委托执行人权

标准的权力、继而在不干涉原则立场上做出妥协为例，来探讨这一问题。本文认为，拉美国家的动机

是试图维护自决和抵制强权。在提出这一论点时，本文扩展了自决（self-determination）的定义，预设

其包含国家对国际规则的自决权。强调规范传播或民主化的既有研究无法解释这一重要变化，而本文

证明了区域主义在全球南方的扩散在某种程度上是一种微妙策略，目的在于减轻等级体系的不良影响，

并建立一个以尊重自决为基础的国际体系。

2024 年第 2 期（总第 14 期）

123

【原文】Weak or dependent states, especially those with histories of colonial and imperial domination, have

traditionally been among the strongest advocates for strict institutionalization and observance of the norm of

non-interference. These states are vulnerable to international pressure, and they have sought to limit this

pressure by “jealously” guarding their sovereignty. Yet, after decades of advocating for strict non-interference,

many have begun to delegate extensive interventionist authority to their regional organizations. What explains

this change? I explore this question in the case of the decision by Latin American leaders to compromise on

non-interference by delegating authority to enforce human rights to the Organization of American States. I

argue that they were motivated by attempts to maintain self-determination and resist the imposition of authority.

In making this argument, I extend the definition of self-determination to incorporate self-determination over

international rules. I show that existing explanations for this development that emphasize norm diffusion or

democratization cannot account for important dynamics. These findings offer evidence that the expansion of

regionalism in the Global South has been, in part, a subtle strategy to mitigate the undesirable effects of

hierarchy and to create an international system based on respect for self-determination.

8. 从扩散到扩散能力：解释企业可持续性政策扩散的“文本即数据”方法（From

Diffusion to Diffuse-ability: A Text-as-Data Approach to Explaining the Global Diffusion

of Corporate Sustainability Policy）

Adam Chalmers，伦敦政治经济学院副教授

Robyn Klingler-Vidra，伦敦政治经济学院副教授

Onna Malou van den Broek，埃克塞特大学管理系讲师

【摘要】本文认为，扩散对象本身的属性决定了政策扩散的形式和程度。关于政策扩散的既有研究主

要集中在行为体层面的性质（如人脉、文化、区位等），来解释政策扩散的内容和程度。本文扩展了

政策文本对传播模式影响的现有理论，认为那些更容易理解、适用性更具体、且不强制要求特定行为

的政策，其文本传播的适应性更低，以及与组织本身类别无关，从而具有更强的扩散能力。本文以企

业可持续发展政策（CSP）的全球传播为案例，分析了 65 年间来自 100 个国家、20 个国际组织和 12

个地区组织的 1429 份企业可持续发展政策的新数据集，验证了这一论点。本文提供了一个衡量扩散

的精确标准，即采纳文本对源文本的复制程度，并发现了针对这一假设的统计支持。本文通过将自然

语言处理方法纳入学术主流及在理论上阐明政策文件的属性如何影响组织适应的程度，为扩散研究做

出了贡献。

【原文】This paper argues that attributes of diffusion objects, in their own right, shape the form and extent

of policy diffusion. To date, diffusion scholarship focuses on actor-level attributes (e.g., connections, culture,

physical proximity, etc.) to explain what is diffused and how much. Extending existing theory on the impacts

of policies’ textual properties on diffusion patterns, we argue that policies that are easier to understand, specific

in their applicability, and that do not mandate specific behavior have their text diffused with less adaptation,

regardless of the attributes of the authoring organization. We test our argument in the context of the global

diffusion of corporate sustainability policy (CSP), analyzing a novel dataset of 1,429 CSPs from 100 countries,

20 international organizations, and 12 regional organizations over a 65-year period. Offering a precise measure

of diffusion as the extent to which a source text is copied into an adopter text, we find statistical support for

our hypothesis. We contribute to diffusion scholarship by helping to mainstream natural language processing

methods and by theorizing how attributes of policy documents affect how much adaptation occurs.

【编译：杨鲁华】

【责任编辑：封欣怡】

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《国际研究评论》（Review of International Studies）

Review of International Studies，Vol. 50, No. 1, 2024

1.哥特视觉与国际关系：阿勒颇中的不可思议图标、批判性漫画与排斥政治（Gothic

visibilities and International Relations: Uncanny icons, critical comics, and the politics of

abjection in Aleppo）

Frederik Carl Windfeld，欧洲大学学院政治与社会科学系研究员

Marius Hauge Hvithamar，哥本哈根大学政治系硕士生

Lene Hansen，哥本哈根大学政治系教授

【摘要】叙利亚战争通过展示死去和受伤的儿童、被斩首和被折磨的尸体以及废墟中的城市的图片，

传达给全球观众。本文阐述了新闻媒体如何通过援引哥特传统来报道战争对阿勒颇城市的影响。文章

借鉴了克里斯特娃和弗洛伊德关于“排斥物”和“不可思议”的概念，论证了哥特传统如何进一步推

动国际关系研究关于“自我”和“他者”的构成。哥特式的“他者”是通过（哥特式）“自我”的厌

恶、迷恋和欲望所构成的，而哥特传统围绕着对不可见之物作为恐惧与期待之间空间的理解。能否在

图像中识别出哥特主题，取决于个人对哥特传统的熟悉程度，因此，图像被理论化为具有哥特潜力。

文章重点讨论了盎格鲁-撒克逊哥特传统如何使西方读者能够在阿勒颇战争新闻报道中识别出哥特主

题。文章采用了多种方法策略，包括对西方新闻媒体发布的 457 张图片进行内容分析；对新闻故事进

行话语分析；对三个哥特式、不可思议的标志性图案进行分析；以及作者根据发布的照片创作的、带

有哥特元素的漫画绘制。

【原文】The war in Syria has been communicated to global audiences through images of dead and injured

children, decapitated and tortured bodies, and ruined cities. The article shows how news media coverage of

the war's impact on the city of Aleppo invoked a Gothic tradition. Drawing on Kristeva and Freud's concepts

of the abject and the uncanny, the article argues that the Gothic tradition can further International Relations

research on the constitution of Selves and Others. The Gothic Other is constituted through the (Gothic) Self's

《国际研究评论》（Review of International Studies）是由

剑桥大学出版社代表英国国际研究协会出版且同行评审

的国际关系学术期刊，其前身为 British Journal of

International Studies (1975 - 1980)。该期刊致力于反映全

球政治的性质变化和新兴的政治挑战，旨在为国际社会搭

建一个可供辩论的平台用以讨论当下紧迫的全球议题。

2020 年该期刊的影响因子为 2.73。

2024 年第 2 期（总第 14 期）

125

repulsion, fascination, and desire, and the Gothic tradition revolves around an understanding of the invisible

as an in-between space of fear and anticipation. The ability to recognise Gothic themes in an image depends

on one's familiarity with the Gothic tradition, hence images are theorised as having a Gothic potentiality. The

article focuses on how the Anglo-Saxon Gothic tradition enabled Western readers to identify Gothic themes

in news coverage of the war in Aleppo. The article adopts a multimethod strategy including a content analysis

of 457 images published by Western news media; a discourse analysis of news stories; an analysis of three

Gothic, uncanny iconic motifs; and an author-created comic drawing on Gothic elements from the published

photographs.

2.理论化网络迷因景观：互联网迷因的空间政治（Theorising the memescape: The spatial

politics of Internet memes）

Uygar Baspehlivan, 布里斯托大学政治学博士研究员

【摘要】尽管互联网迷因（流行语）在日常政治传播和实践中的核心性日益增强，但作为全球政治中

低文化艺术品的迷因，其新兴影响却鲜少受到理论关注。作者发展了一种迷因的批判理论，以提供一

个概念工具来理解这种流行文化现象的全球政治影响和可能性。作者认为，为了关注迷因的新兴影响

并考虑它们与其他流行文化现象的区别，需要解析迷因产生和流通的空间逻辑。通过“迷因景观”的

概念分析这种空间逻辑，并运用吉尔·德勒兹和费利克斯·瓜塔里的纹理化和光滑空间概念，本文表

述了迷因景观的空间逻辑，包括：根茎式、去中心化的数字内容流通；游牧式、趣味性、幽默性地颠

覆曾经稳定的符号；以及多样主体的情感集会。通过探讨两个例子，即本地数字社群的抵抗性迷因和

另类右翼的反动迷因，这些光滑空间趋势是如何产生不同的政治潜力，作者得出结论，迷因景观的全

球政治是开放的、未定的，这需要我们小心翼翼、细致入微地对其政治和伦理关注，以实现其解放视

野的未来。

【原文】Despite the increasing centrality of Internet memes for everyday political circulations and practices,

their emergent implications as low-cultural artefacts of global politics have received little theoretical attention.

In this article, I develop a critical theory of memes to provide a conceptual apparatus to understand the global

political implications and possibilities of this pop-cultural phenomenon. I argue that, in order to attend to the

emergent implications of memes and consider their differentiations from other pop-cultural phenomena, we

need to unpack the spatial logic through which memes emerge and circulate. Analysing this spatial logic

through the concept of the ‘memescape’ and deploying Gilles Deleuze and Felix Guattari’s notions of striated

and smooth spaces, this article articulates the spatial logic of the memescape as comprising rhizomatic,

decentralised circulations of digital content; nomadic, playful, and humorous disruptions of once-stable signs;

and affective congregations of a multiplicity of subjects. Through two examples exploring how these smooth

spatial tendencies produce divergent political potentials in the resistant memes of Indigenous digital

communities and reactionary memes of the Alt-Right, I conclude that the global politics of the memescape is

open-ended and undetermined which requires careful and nuanced political and ethical attention to actualise

its futures for emancipatory horizons.

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3.哦，救命！哦，不！《咕噜牛》的国际政治：儿童绘本与世界政治（Oh help! Oh no!

The international politics of The Gruffalo: Children’s picturebooks and world politics）

Lee Jarvis，东盎格利亚大学国际政治学教授

Nick Robinson，利兹大学政治与国际研究副教授

【摘要】本文探讨了儿童绘本在构建和批判世界政治中的共谋作用。聚焦于《咕噜牛》，文章主张这

本极为成功的书籍：(1) 描述了一个悲观的、无政府的世界，其中居住着自私的求生者；(2) 通过唤起

对社会化威胁的制造，扰乱了这种阅读和其假设；以及，(3) 通过对主角穿越“深沉黑暗的森林”这

一地方性特权旅程的描述，提供了对国际关系的更根本性的去殖民批判。作者认为，这本书生动地展

示了世界对多种不兼容解读的敏感性，同时使国际理解的假设、框架和遗漏变得可见。因此，它将世

界政治及其知识理论化为偶然性和不稳定性。在提出这一论点的过程中，文章作出了三个贡献。首先，

在实证上，通过研究一个出人意料地被忽视的流行文化例子，扩展了对流行文化和世界政治的研究。

其次，在理论上，展示了这类文本在（重新）构建和（不）稳定全球政治（的认知）方面所发挥的作

用。第三，为将来研究像《咕噜牛》这样复杂文本的背景、内容和框架提供了一个综合性的方法论框

架。

【原文】The article explores the complicity of children’s picturebooks in the construction and critique of

world politics. Focusing on The Gruffalo, it argues that this spectacularly successful book: (1) stories the

international as a pessimistic, anarchical world populated by self-interested, survival-seekers; (2) disrupts this

reading and its assumptions through evocation of the social production of threat; and, (3) provides a more

fundamental decolonial critique of the international through parochial privileging of its protagonist’s journey

through a ‘deep dark wood’. In doing this, we argue, the book vividly demonstrates the world’s susceptibility

to multiple incompatible readings, while rendering visible the assumptions, framing, and occlusions of

competing understandings of the international. As such, it theorises both world politics and knowledge thereof

as contingent and unstable. In making this argument, three contributions are made. First, empirically, we

expand research on popular culture and world politics through investigating a surprisingly neglected example

of the former. Second, theoretically, we demonstrate the work such texts perform in (re)creating and

(de)stabilising (knowledge of) global politics. Third, we offer a composite methodological framework for

future research into the context, content, and framing of complex texts like The Gruffalo.

4.正在形成的世界：关于气候工程的全球视觉政治（World in the making: On the global

visual politics of climate engineering）

Ann-Kathrin Benner，汉堡大学和平研究与安全政治研究院博士候选人

Delf Rothe，汉堡大学和平研究与安全政治研究院高级研究员

【摘要】关于采用大规模技术干预地球系统以减缓全球变暖——或称气候工程——的提议，已在国际

安全和全球治理的潜在影响方面引发了相当多的讨论。本文通过与视觉全球政治文献的对话，推进了

这一辩论，发展出一个更“形象化”的气候工程想象概念。基于一个新颖的视觉数据集，识别出公共

话语中关于气候工程的三个主要视觉集群：人与自然关系的图像、作为具体基础设施的气候工程的图

像，以及气候工程项目中涉及的行为者的图像。分析显示，图像和其他视觉元素不仅塑造了对气候工

2024 年第 2 期（总第 14 期）

127

程的主导理解，也塑造了未来政治秩序的竞争性想象，这些政治秩序可能部署此类方法。这项分析的

三个主要结果尤为突出。首先，对气候工程的主导视角可能进一步加强已经占主导地位的话语框架，

通过为其背后的主张增加“视觉证据”。其次，气候工程的视觉性也可以通过使具体项目可见且因此

可争议，促进气候工程的政治化。第三，气候工程的图像可能会以悖论的方式限制想象的范围，因为

它们通常围绕着过去和现在的强大视觉图标和符号。

【原文】Proposals for large-scale technical interventions into the Earth system to mitigate global warming –

or climate engineering – have sparked considerable debate about their potential implications for international

security and global governance. The article furthers this debate by bringing it into dialogue with the literature

on visual global politics to develop a more ‘imagistic’ concept of climate engineering imaginaries. Based on

a novel visual dataset, three major visual clusters in the public discourse on climate engineering are identified:

images of the human–nature relationship, of climate engineering as tangible infrastructure, and of the actors

involved in climate engineering projects. The analysis shows how images and other visuals do not only shape

the dominant understanding of climate engineering but also competing imaginaries of future political orders

in which such approaches might be deployed. Three main results of this analysis stand out. First, dominant

ways of seeing climate engineering can further reinforce already dominant discursive frames by adding ‘visual

proof’ to their underlying claims. Second, climate engineering visuality can also enable the politicisation of

climate engineering by rendering concrete projects visible and hence contestable. Third, climate engineering

images can paradoxically limit the scope of imagination as they often revolve around powerful visual icons

and symbols of the past and present.

5. 《高墙边的混乱》与以色列对巴勒斯坦的占领：国际政治中的性别、情感和共犯视觉

表现（Fauda and the Israeli occupation of Palestine: Gender, emotions, and visual

representations of complicity in international politics）

Sorana Jude，纽卡斯尔大学博士后研究员

【摘要】本文检视了国际关系学中战争、冲突和军事占领下共谋的视觉政治。通过主张共谋是一种社

会关系，通过这种关系，行为者在利用不均匀分布的权力和资源的同时，巧妙地应对暴力，文章探索

了以色列电视剧《高墙下的混乱》（Fauda）中共谋行为的生产、表达和接受，该剧讲述了在以色列对

巴勒斯坦的占领下的共谋行为。本文基于女性主义国际关系学对情感、性别和视觉表现的关注，对国

际政治中共谋研究提供了两方面的贡献。首先，《高墙下的混乱》的创作者、发行者和观众之间的共

谋纠葛凸显了文化工作者在塑造公众对战争、暴力和军事占领知识方面的作用，特别是通过创建和传

播文化表征，通过特定的情感逻辑（同情、怜悯、恐惧）促使观众与他们通过文化产品消费的暴力形

成共谋关系。其次，本文通过检视作品中的共谋表现，揭示了共谋者在暴力中央，如何在不同身份（加

害者、受害者、见证者、旁观者）间导航的具体体验。为此，本文增进了我们对国际政治中情感、抵

抗和统治的理解。

【原文】This article examines the visual politics of complicity within war, conflict, and military occupation

in International Relations (IR). By arguing that complicity is a social relation through which actors navigate

violence while drawing on power and resources that are distributed unevenly, it explores the production,

128

articulation, and reception of complicity within the Israeli television series Fauda, which addresses complicit

behaviour under the Israeli occupation of Palestine. By building on Feminist IR's engagement with emotions,

gender, and visual representations, this article provides a twofold contribution to the study of complicity in

international politics. Firstly, the complicit entanglement between creators, distributors, and viewers of Fauda

spotlights the cultural workers’ role in shaping public knowledge of war, violence, and military occupation,

particularly by creating and circulating cultural representations that facilitate the complicity of audiences with

the violence that they consume through certain emotional logics (empathy, compassion, fear). Secondly, this

article examines representations of complicity within Fauda to shed light on complicit actors’ embodied

experiences of navigating between different identities while caught in the middle of violence (perpetrator,

victim, witness, bystander). To this end, this article develops our understanding of emotions, resistance, and

domination in international politics.

6.地位线索与规范变革：奥斯卡奖如何促进了智利的性别身份法（Status cues and

normative change: How the Academy Awards facilitated Chile’s gender identity law）

Carsten-Andreas Schulz，剑桥大学国际关系学助理教授

Cameron G. Thies，密歇根州立大学教授

【摘要】本研究探讨了电影《普通女人》获得奥斯卡奖如何促进了智利性别身份法的通过。该法案在

国会搁置了五年多之后，于 2018 年获批，确立了个人有权在不需要改变其外貌或获得事先法院授权

的情况下，修改其国家身份证件的权利。虽然跨性别权利活动人士广泛游说支持一项保障性别标记变

更的法律，但保守派拒绝了这一倡议，他们以基督教价值观为框架，反对所谓的“性别意识形态”，

声称这是该法案的指导思想。本文认为，这种反对在获奖之后消散了。国际认可使得支持跨性别权利

暂时成为国民自豪的事情，从而为该法案的批准打开了一扇机会之窗。智利性别身份法案的例子说明

了国际地位线索如何通过在国内受众中调动情感来促进规范变革。它对地位与国内政治变革的最新辩

论，以及情感和情绪在世界政治中的作用，做出了贡献。

【原文】This study explores how the Academy Award for A Fantastic Woman facilitated the adoption of

Chile's Gender Identity Law. Approved in 2018 after languishing for over five years in Congress, the law

establishes individuals’ right to modify their national identification documents without the need to change

their physical appearance or receive prior court authorisation. While trans rights activists extensively lobbied

for a law that guaranteed access to gender marker changes, conservatives rejected the initiative, framing their

opposition in terms of Christian values and against the ‘gender ideology’ that purportedly informed the bill.

We argue that this backlash dissipated in the wake of the award. International recognition made support for

trans rights temporarily a matter of national pride, thereby opening a window of opportunity for the approval

of the law. The case of Chile's Gender Identity Law illustrates how international status cues can foster

normative change by mobilising affect in domestic audiences. It contributes to recent debates on status and

domestic political change, and the role that emotion and affect play in world politics.

2024 年第 2 期（总第 14 期）

129

7.创造可殖民土地：19 世纪德国的地图学、“空白空间”与帝国想象（Creating

colonisable land: Cartography, ‘blank spaces’, and imaginaries of empire in nineteenthcentury Germany）

Zeynep Gülşah Çapan，埃尔福特大学高级讲师

Filipe dos Reis，格罗宁根大学助理教授

【摘要】社会科学和人文学科总体上，特别是国际关系学，围绕着所谓的“分析二分法”进行组织。

分析二分法人为地构建和划分分析空间，例如欧洲/非欧洲、内部/外部、国家/帝国、核心区/殖民地。

最近，在国际关系学及其相关领域，这些二分法受到了质疑。我们的文章通过突出两个相互关联的方

面，为这些讨论做出了贡献并进行了扩展，这两个方面尚未得到足够的关注：首先，是殖民地之间的

联系，而不是核心区与殖民地之间的联系；其次，是欧洲/非欧洲二分法的构建和再生产。我们探讨了

权力技术是如何被用来创造可殖民土地的想象，以我们的案例来说，是通过绘图和使用“空白空间”。

为此，我们追溯了 19 世纪德国殖民话语的两个事件。第一个事件分析了洪堡传统中探险的想象，并

描绘了欧洲之外的空间，即非洲，作为空白空间。第二个事件重建了保罗·朗汉斯的地图工作，他专

注于绘制中欧和东欧的“德意志领域”（Deutschtum）。对比这两个事件显示了这些空间（非洲和欧

洲东部）之间的相互联系，以及如何运用技术，例如空白空间，来创造可殖民土地。

【原文】The social sciences and humanities in general and International Relations (IR) specifically are

organised around what has been called ‘analytic bifurcation’. Analytic bifurcations artificially structure and

divide analytic spaces into, for example, Europe/non-Europe, inside/outside, state/empire, and

metropole/colony. Recently, these bifurcations have been problematised within IR and adjacent fields. Our

article contributes to and extends these discussions by foregrounding two interrelated aspects that have not

received sufficient attention: first, connections between colonies rather than between metropole and colony

and, second, the construction and reproduction of the bifurcation of Europe/non-Europe. We explore how

technologies of power, in our case mapping and the use of ‘blank spaces’, were used to create imaginaries of

colonisable land. To do so, we trace two episodes from nineteenth-century German colonial discourse. The

first episode analyses imaginaries of exploration in the Humboldtian tradition and how these imaginaries depict

spaces outside of Europe, namely in Africa, as blank spaces. The second episode reconstructs the cartographic

work of Paul Langhans, who focused on mapping ‘Germandom’ (Deutschtum) in Central and Eastern Europe.

Juxtaposing these two episodes shows the interconnectedness between these spaces (Africa and the European

East) and how techniques such as blank spaces were applied to create colonisable land.

8.构建受害者：现代世界秩序中的苦难与地位（Constructing victims: Suffering and status

in modern world order）

Alex Vandermaas-Peeler，乔治华盛顿大学政治学系博士候选人

Jelena Subotic，佐治亚州立大学政治学系教授

Michael Barnett，乔治华盛顿大学教授

【摘要】世界秩序中地位的基础是什么？通常认为地位源于实力，即便实力被重新构想为社会性和规

范性，而不仅仅是物质性的。然而，地位也可能来自于被感知的弱点——它被赋予那些被认为是“受

害者”的人。我们对世界事务中地位的研究做出了四个理论贡献。首先，我们探讨了受害者类别的产

130

生方式。其次，我们通过增加受害者类别，扩展了世界事务中地位的可能来源。第三，关注受害者地

位进一步表明，地位独立于物质力量。最后，作为地位的受害者身份展示了一种悖论，即权力依赖于

被感知的无力感。我们用现代国际政治中受害者地位的三个特征来阐释这些论点：以色列对受害者地

位欲望的变化，刚果理想受害者的性别建构，以及波斯尼亚关于受害者属性的等级制。

【原文】What is the basis of status in world order? Status is assumed to come from strength, even if strength

is reconfigured to be social and normative, not just material. Status, however, can also come from perceived

weakness – it is conferred to those recognised as ‘victims’. We make four theoretical contributions to the

scholarship on status in world affairs. First, we examine how the category of victim is produced. Two, we

expand the possible sources of status in world affairs by adding the category of victim. Three, focus on

victimhood status further demonstrates that status is independent of material power. Lastly, victimhood as

status exhibits the paradox that power depends on perceived powerlessness. We illustrate these arguments with

three features of victim status in modern international politics: the changing desirability of victim status in

Israel, the gendered construction of ideal victim in the Congo, and the hierarchy of victimhood in Bosnia.

9.官僚制度与有争议国家外交的日常实践：科索沃的典型案例（Bureaucracy and the

everyday practices of contested state diplomacy: The paradigmatic case of Kosovo）

Tobias Wille，法兰克福大学国际安全学助理教授

【摘要】有争议国家的代表——即那些对主权国家地位的主张未得到国际社会或未完全得到国际社会

认可的领土——经常会做出重大努力进行外交活动。最近有两种文献开始探索这些外交活动，一种关

注于叛军和分裂主义运动的“叛乱外交”，另一种关注于全球政治中的“临界行动者”。然而，这两

种文献以非常不同的方式定义了这一现象，即作为工具行动或文化表演，并且在很大程度上没有考虑

彼此的见解。作者认为，如果我们理解现代外交的本质作为一套官僚实践，我们可以更好地理解有争

议国家外交。作为官僚组织中的一种常规化过程，现代外交既促成了特定的决策，也维持了国家作为

合法权力所在地的现实。因此，有争议的国家的代表有充分的理由为他们的外交建立或多或少的基本

官僚机构。作者使用科索沃外交政策机构的历史作为一个典型案例，以展示日常官僚实践如何融合工

具行动和文化展演，并进一步理论化在有争议的国家外交中“政治”和“技术”行为的相互作用。

【原文】The representatives of contested states – that is, territories whose claim to sovereign statehood is not,

or is not fully, recognised by the international society of states – often make significant efforts to engage in

diplomacy. Two literatures have recently begun to explore these diplomatic activities, one focusing on the

‘rebel diplomacy’ of insurgents and secessionist movements, the other on ‘liminal actors’ in global politics.

However, these two literatures have defined the phenomenon in very different ways, namely, as either

instrumental action or cultural performance, and study it largely without regard to each other's insights. My

argument in this article is that contested state diplomacy can be better understood if we appreciate the nature

of modern diplomacy as a set of bureaucratic practices. As a routinised process within a bureaucratic

organisation, modern diplomacy both gives rise to specific decisions and sustains the reality of the state as the

locus of legitimate power. The representatives of contested states therefore have strong reasons to set up more

or less rudimentary bureaucracies for their diplomacy. I use the history of Kosovo's foreign policy institutions

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131

as a paradigmatic case to demonstrate how everyday bureaucratic practices fuse instrumental action and

cultural performance and further theorise the interplay of ‘political’ and ‘technical’ conduct in contested state

diplomacy.

10.走向民主情报监督：限制、实践、斗争（Towards democratic intelligence oversight:

Limits, practices, struggles）

Ronja Kniep，柏林自由大学博士候选人；Lina Ewert，Berliner Ideenlabor 咨询师

Bernardino Leon Reyes，巴黎政治学院博士研究员；Félix Tréguer，法国国家科学研究中心副研究员

Emma Mc Cluskey，威斯敏斯特大学犯罪学讲师；Claudia Aradau，伦敦国王学院战争研究系教授

【摘要】尽管“民主”一词在民主情报监督中常被使用，但其含义很少被详细阐述。本文将有关情报

监督的问题置于关于民主的含义和实践的更广泛辩论中。文章认为，情报监督文献倾向于隐含或明确

地遵循自由主义和技术官僚主义的民主观念，这限制了学术界和实践中对监督的理解。因此，监督主

要被理解为一种专家、制度性且部分排他性的安排，其目的是在国家层面上平衡个体自由和集体安全，

从而建立情报工作的合法性和信任。于是，“健康”或“高效”的民主监督变成了技术专长、无党派

性和保守秘密能力的问题。通过分析在德国、英国和美国围绕什么构成情报监督的三个斗争时刻，本

文阐明了它们的民主利害关系。通过基于实践的方法，本文认为监督采取了更多对抗性、有争议性、

跨国和公开的形式。然而，这些民主实践重新配置监督仍然受到主导观点的争议或限制，这些观点定

义了什么构成合法有效的情报监督。

【原文】Despite its common usage, the meaning of ‘democratic’ in democratic intelligence oversight has

rarely been spelled out. In this article, we situate questions regarding intelligence oversight within broader

debates about the meanings and practices of democracy. We argue that the literature on intelligence oversight

has tended to implicitly or explicitly follow liberal and technocratic ideas of democracy, which have limited

the understanding of oversight both in academia and in practice. Thus, oversight is mostly understood as an

expert, institutional and partially exclusive arrangement that is supposed to strike a balance between individual

freedom and collective security, with the goal of establishing the legitimacy of and trust in intelligence work

in a national setting. ‘Healthy’ or ‘efficient’ democratic oversight then becomes a matter of technical expertise,

non-partisanship, and the ability to guard secrets. By analysing three moments of struggle around what counts

as intelligence oversight across Germany, the UK, and the US, this article elucidates their democratic stakes.

Through a practice-based approach, we argue that oversight takes much more agonistic, contentious,

transnational, and public forms. However, these democratic practices reconfiguring oversight remain contested

or contained by dominant views on what constitutes legitimate and effective intelligence oversight.

【编译：徐一凡】

【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

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《政治分析》（Political Analysis）

Political Analysis，Vol. 32, No. 1, 2024

1. 调查权重的敏感性分析（Sensitivity Analysis for Survey Weights）

Erin Hartman，加州大学伯克利分校政治学助理教授

Melody Huang，加州大学伯克利分校统计系，哈佛大学博士后研究员

【摘要】调查加权允许研究人员利用测量的人口统计学协变量来解释调查样本中由于单位无响应或方

便抽样而产生的偏差。遗憾的是，在实践中，不可能知道估计的调查加权数是否足以减轻因未观察到

的混杂因素或加权中使用的函数形式不正确而导致的偏差。本文提出了两种排除重要协变量的敏感性

分析：（1）针对部分观测到的混杂因素（即在调查样本中测量到的变量，但未在目标人群中测量到）

的敏感性分析；（2）完全未观测到的混杂因素（即未在调查或目标人群中测量到的变量）的敏感性分

析。本文对此类混杂因素可能造成的偏差进行了图表和数字总结，并引入了一种基准测试方法，使研

究人员能够对其结果的敏感性进行定量推理。本文使用州一级 2020 年美国总统大选民意调查来演示

所提出的敏感性分析。

【原文】Survey weighting allows researchers to account for bias in survey samples, due to unit nonresponse

or convenience sampling, using measured demographic covariates. Unfortunately, in practice, it is impossible

to know whether the estimated survey weights are sufficient to alleviate concerns about bias due to unobserved

confounders or incorrect functional forms used in weighting. In the following paper, we propose two

sensitivity analyses for the exclusion of important covariates: (1) a sensitivity analysis for partially observed

confounders (i.e., variables measured across the survey sample, but not the target population) and (2) a

sensitivity analysis for fully unobserved confounders (i.e., variables not measured in either the survey or the

target population). We provide graphical and numerical summaries of the potential bias that arises from such

confounders, and introduce a benchmarking approach that allows researchers to quantitatively reason about

the sensitivity of their results. We demonstrate our proposed sensitivity analyses using state-level 2020 U.S.

Presidential Election polls.

2. 跨错位空间单元的集成数据（Integrating Data Across Misaligned Spatial Units）

Yuri M. Zhukov，密歇根大学政治学系副教授

《政治分析》（Political Analysis）发表同行评审的文章，

这些文章提供了政治方法论一般领域的原创性和重大进

展，包括定量和定性方法论方法。它是政治方法论学会和

美国政治科学协会政治方法论分会的官方期刊。

2024 年第 2 期（总第 14 期）

133

Jason S. Byers，杜克大学社会科学研究所研究员

Marty A. Davidson II，密歇根大学政治学系博士

Ken Kollman，密歇根大学政治研究中心（社会研究所）教授

【摘要】感兴趣的理论单位通常与可用数据的空间单位不一致。这个问题在政治学中普遍存在，特别

是在地方实证研究中，需要整合不兼容的地理单元（例如行政区域、选区和网格单元）的数据。克服

这一挑战不仅需要研究人员调整实证单位和理论单位的规模，还要了解这种对测量误差和统计推断的

支持变化的后果。本文展示了变换值的准确性和回归系数的估计如何取决于嵌套程度（即单元是否完

全且整齐地相互嵌套）以及源单元和目标单元的相对规模（即聚合、分解、和混合）。本文引入了简

单的、非参数的相对嵌套和尺度测量方法，作为空间变换复杂性和误差敏感性的事前指标。通过使用

选举数据和蒙特卡罗模拟（Monte Carlo simulations），证明了这些措施可以强有力地预测多种支持率

变化方法的转换质量。提出了多种验证程序并提供开源软件，以使转换选项更易于访问、定制和直观。

【原文】Theoretical units of interest often do not align with the spatial units at which data are available. This

problem is pervasive in political science, particularly in subnational empirical research that requires integrating

data across incompatible geographic units (e.g., administrative areas, electoral constituencies, and grid cells).

Overcoming this challenge requires researchers not only to align the scale of empirical and theoretical units,

but also to understand the consequences of this change of support for measurement error and statistical

inference. We show how the accuracy of transformed values and the estimation of regression coefficients

depend on the degree of nesting (i.e., whether units fall completely and neatly inside each other) and on the

relative scale of source and destination units (i.e., aggregation, disaggregation, and hybrid). We introduce

simple, nonparametric measures of relative nesting and scale, as ex ante indicators of spatial transformation

complexity and error susceptibility. Using election data and Monte Carlo simulations, we show that these

measures are strongly predictive of transformation quality across multiple change-of-support methods. We

propose several validation procedures and provide open-source software to make transformation options more

accessible, customizable, and intuitive.

3. 一切尽在不言中：基于性格的宗教推断方法（It’s All in the Name: A Character-Based

Approach to Infer Religion）

Rochana Chaturvedi，伊利诺伊大学芝加哥分校计算机科学系研究员

Sugat Chaturvedi，苏塞克斯大学科学政策研究室研究员

【摘要】关于群体身份的大规模微观数据对于身份政治和暴力研究至关重要，但发展中国家基本上还

没有这方面的数据。本文使用个人姓名来推断南亚的宗教信仰——在南亚，宗教信仰是一个突出的社

会分野，但有关宗教信仰的分类数据却很少。现有工作使用基于字典的方法来预测宗教信仰，因此无

法对未见过的姓名进行分类。本文提供的基于字符的机器学习模型，可以高精度地对未见过的姓名进

行分类。该模型速度更快，因此可以扩展到大型数据集，同时，使用分层相关性传播技术解释了其中

一个模型的分类决策。分类器学习到的字符模式植根于名称的语言起源。本文利用印度选举的历史数

据来推断候选人的宗教信仰，并观察到了穆斯林代表性呈下降趋势。该方法可用于检测世界各地的身

份群体，这些群体的基本名称可能具有不同的语言根源。

【原文】Large-scale microdata on group identity are critical for studies on identity politics and violence but

remain largely unavailable for developing countries. We use personal names to infer religion in South Asia—

where religion is a salient social division, and yet, disaggregated data on it are scarce. Existing work predicts

religion using a dictionary-based method and, therefore, cannot classify unseen names. We provide character-

134

based machine-learning models that can classify unseen names too with high accuracy. Our models are also

much faster and, hence, scalable to large datasets. We explain the classification decisions of one of our models

using the layer-wise relevance propagation technique. The character patterns learned by the classifier are

rooted in the linguistic origins of names. We apply these to infer the religion of electoral candidates using

historical data on Indian elections and observe a trend of declining Muslim representation. Our approach can

be used to detect identity groups across the world for whom the underlying names might have different

linguistic roots.

4. 分层贝叶斯 Aldrich-McKelvey 缩放法（Hierarchical Bayesian Aldrich–McKelvey

Scaling）

Jørgen Bølstad，奥斯陆大学政治学教授

【摘要】估计政治行为者的意识形态立场是回答政治科学中一系列实质性问题的重要一步。调查量表

为此类估计提供了有用的数据，但也提出了挑战，因为受访者往往会对量表做出不同的解释。AldrichMcKelvey 模型解决了这一难题，但该模型现有仍存在明显缺陷。本文以贝叶斯模型（BAM）为重点，

通过分析表明该模型容易过度拟合，并且对于相当一部分受访者来说结果不佳。针对这些缺点，本文

开发了分层贝叶斯模型（HBAM）。新版本将自我位置作为数据纳入似然函数，同时还对似然进行了

修改，以允许尺度翻转。所得模型在实际数据和蒙特卡罗研究中均优于现有的贝叶斯版本。为了便于

将来使用，研究人员提供了一个在 Stan 中实现模型的 R 软件包。

【原文】Estimating the ideological positions of political actors is an important step toward answering a number

of substantive questions in political science. Survey scales provide useful data for such estimation, but also

present a challenge, as respondents tend to interpret the scales differently. The Aldrich–McKelvey model

addresses this challenge, but the existing implementations of the model still have notable shortcomings.

Focusing on the Bayesian version of the model (BAM), the analyses in this article demonstrate that the model

is prone to overfitting and yields poor results for a considerable share of respondents. The article addresses

these shortcomings by developing a hierarchical Bayesian version of the model (HBAM). The new version

treats self-placements as data to be included in the likelihood function while also modifying the likelihood to

allow for scale flipping. The resulting model outperforms the existing Bayesian version both on real data and

in a Monte Carlo study. An R package implementing the models in Stan is provided to facilitate future use.

5. 测量数据的多级校准加权（Multilevel Calibration Weighting for Survey Data）

Eli Ben-Michael，卡内基梅隆大学统计与数据科学系和亨氏信息系统与公共政策学院助理教授

Avi Feller，加州大学伯克利分校公共政策与统计学副教授

Erin Hartman，加州大学伯克利分校政治学助理教授

【摘要】在 2016 年 11 月的美国总统选举中，许多州级民意调查，尤其是中西部、北部地区的民意调

查，错误地预测了获胜候选人。对这一民调失误的一个主要解释是，传统民意调查回应率的急剧下降

导致人们更加依赖统计方法来调整相应的偏差，而这些方法未能调整教育程度、种族和地理区域等关

键变量之间的重要交互作用。对于传统的调查方法而言，找到能解释重要交互作用的校准权重仍然具

有挑战性。倾斜通常仅能平衡边际，而精确平衡所有相互作用的后分层法仅适用于少数变量。在本文

中，作者提出了多层次校准加权法，它对边际平衡实施严格的平衡约束，对高阶交互实施较宽松的约

束。这既包含了后分层法的一些优点，同时保留了倾斜的保证。随后，本文通过灵活的结果模型纠正

了由于宽松约束而产生的偏差；因此将这种方法称为“后分层双重回归”本文使用这些工具重新评估了

2024 年第 2 期（总第 14 期）

135

2016 年美国总统大选中的大规模选民意向调查，发现所提出的方法取得了有意义的成果。该方法可在

multical R 软件包中找到。

【原文】In the November 2016 U.S. presidential election, many state-level public opinion polls, particularly

in the Upper Midwest, incorrectly predicted the winning candidate. One leading explanation for this polling

miss is that the precipitous decline in traditional polling response rates led to greater reliance on statistical

methods to adjust for the corresponding bias—and that these methods failed to adjust for important interactions

between key variables like educational attainment, race, and geographic region. Finding calibration weights

that account for important interactions remains challenging with traditional survey methods: raking typically

balances the margins alone, while post-stratification, which exactly balances all interactions, is only feasible

for a small number of variables. In this paper, we propose multilevel calibration weighting, which enforces

tight balance constraints for marginal balance and looser constraints for higher-order interactions. This

incorporates some of the benefits of post-stratification while retaining the guarantees of raking. We then

correct for the bias due to the relaxed constraints via a flexible outcome model; we call this approach “double

regression with post-stratification.” We use these tools to re-assess a large-scale survey of voter intention in

the 2016 U.S. presidential election, finding meaningful gains from the proposed methods. The approach is

available in the multical R package.

6. 更少注释，更多分类：利用深度迁移学习和 BERT-NLI 解决监督机器学习的数据稀缺

问题（Less Annotating, More Classifying: Addressing the Data Scarcity Issue of Supervised

Machine Learning with Deep Transfer Learning and BERT-NLI）

Moritz Laurer，阿姆斯特丹自由大学政治文本分析博士

Wouter van Atteveldt，阿姆斯特丹自由大学社会科学学院传播科学系教授

Andreu Casas，阿姆斯特丹自由大学传播科学系博士后

Kasper Welbers，阿姆斯特丹自由大学传播科学系助理教授

【摘要】监督机器学习是一种越来越流行的分析大型政治文本语料库的工具。监督机器学习的主要缺

点是需要数千个人工注释的训练数据点。这个问题在社会科学领域尤其重要，因为大多数新的研究问

题都需要新的训练数据来完成针对特定研究问题的新任务。本文分析了深度迁移学习如何通过积累语

言模型中的“先验知识”来帮助应对这一挑战。像 BERT 这样的模型可以通过预训练（“语言知识”）来

学习统计语言模式，并且通过对自然语言的推理（NLI；“任务知识”）等通用任务进行训练来减少对

特定任务数据的依赖。本文在八项任务中展示了迁移学习的优势。在这八项任务中，BERT-NLI 模型

在 100 到 2500 个文本上进行了微调，比没有进行迁移学习的经典模型平均表现好 10.7 到 18.3 个百分

点。本文的研究表明，在 500 个文本上进行微调的 BERT-NLI 与在大约 5000 个文本上训练的经典模

型性能相近，此外，本文还发现迁移学习在不平衡数据上的效果尤为显著。最后，讨论了迁移学习的

局限性，并概述了政治科学研究的新机遇。

【原文】Supervised machine learning is an increasingly popular tool for analyzing large political text corpora.

The main disadvantage of supervised machine learning is the need for thousands of manually annotated

training data points. This issue is particularly important in the social sciences where most new research

questions require new training data for a new task tailored to the specific research question. This paper analyses

how deep transfer learning can help address this challenge by accumulating “prior knowledge” in language

models. Models like BERT can learn statistical language patterns through pre-training (“language

knowledge”), and reliance on task-specific data can be reduced by training on universal tasks like natural

language inference (NLI; “task knowledge”). We demonstrate the benefits of transfer learning on a wide range

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of eight tasks. Across these eight tasks, our BERT-NLI model fine-tuned on 100 to 2,500 texts performs on

average 10.7 to 18.3 percentage points better than classical models without transfer learning. Our study

indicates that BERT-NLI fine-tuned on 500 texts achieves similar performance as classical models trained on

around 5,000 texts. Moreover, we show that transfer learning works particularly well on imbalanced data. We

conclude by discussing limitations of transfer learning and by outlining new opportunities for political science

research.

7. 衡量比例代表制的接近度（Measuring Closeness in Proportional Representation

Systems）

Simon Luechinger，卢塞恩大学经济学教授

Mark Schelker，弗里堡大学公共经济学系主任

Lukas Schmid，南加州大学马歇尔商学院金融和商业经济学教授

【摘要】本文提供了封闭形式的解决方案来衡量候选人在比例代表制（PR）中的选举接近度。与多数

制相比，公共关系制中的亲密程度不能直接从选票中推断出来。本文的措施反映了开放名单制度和封

闭名单制度以及两个主要席位分配机制系统的选举接近程度。这一统一措施量化了当选（非当选）候

选人的选票盈余（不足）。它可以作为回归不连续设计中的分配变量或作为选举竞争力的衡量标准。

为了说明，本文估计了瑞士、洪都拉斯和挪威议会的现任优势。

【原文】We provide closed-form solutions for measuring electoral closeness of candidates in proportional

representation (PR) systems. In contrast to plurality systems, closeness in PR systems cannot be directly

inferred from votes. Our measure captures electoral closeness for both open- and closed-list systems and for

both main families of seat allocation mechanisms. This unified measure quantifies the vote surplus (shortfall)

for elected (nonelected) candidates. It can serve as an assignment variable in regression discontinuity designs

or as a measure of electoral competitiveness. For illustration, we estimate the incumbency advantage for the

parliaments in Switzerland, Honduras, and Norway.

8. 关系：文本语义捕捉政治和经济叙事（RELATIO: Text Semantics Capture Political

and Economic Narratives）

Elliott Ash，苏黎世联邦理工学院副教授

Germain Gauthier，博科尼大学社会和政治科学系经济学助理教授

Philine Widmer，苏黎世联邦理工学院博士后研究员

【摘要】社会科学家对叙事（小说、政治和生活中的故事）如何塑造信仰、行为和政府政策越来越感

兴趣。本文提供了一种无监督的方法来量化文本文档中的潜在叙事结构。本文的新软件包 RELATIO

识别连贯的实体组，并在文本中映射它们之间的明确关系。本文为美国国会记录提供了一个应用程序

来分析近几十年来的政治和经济叙事。本文的分析强调了政治话语中叙事的动态、情绪、两极分化和

相互联系。

【原文】Social scientists have become increasingly interested in how narratives—the stories in fiction, politics,

and life—shape beliefs, behavior, and government policies. This paper provides an unsupervised method to

quantify latent narrative structures in text documents. Our new software package RELATIO identifies coherent

entity groups and maps explicit relations between them in the text. We provide an application to the U.S.

Congressional Record to analyze political and economic narratives in recent decades. Our analysis highlights

the dynamics, sentiment, polarization, and interconnectedness of narratives in political discourse.

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9. 用更少的观察值选择更多信息的训练集（Selecting More Informative Training Sets

with Fewer Observations）

Aaron R. Kaufman，纽约大学阿布扎比分校政治学助理教授

【摘要】在社会科学中，标准的文本-数据工作流包括确定一组要标记的文档，使用研究助理从这些文

档中随机选择一个样本来标记，训练一个有监督的学习者来标记剩余的文档，并使用标准的准确性指

标来验证该模型的性能。这其中最耗费资源的部分是手工标记：仔细阅读文档，培训研究助理，并付

钱给编码员来标记重复或更多的文档。本文表明，在预测（1）美国行政命令重要性和（2）社交媒体

上金融情绪的应用中，手工编码经过算法选择的样本（而不是简单的随机样本）可以将模型性能提高

50%以上，或将手工编码成本降低三分之二。本文附带了开源软件来实现这些工具，希望这些工具可

以使监督学习更便宜，更容易被研究人员使用。

【原文】A standard text-as-data workflow in the social sciences involves identifying a set of documents to

be labeled, selecting a random sample of them to label using research assistants, training a supervised learner

to label the remaining documents, and validating that model’s performance using standard accuracy metrics.

The most resource-intensive component of this is the hand-labeling: carefully reading documents, training

research assistants, and paying human coders to label documents in duplicate or more. We show that handcoding an algorithmically selected rather than a simple-random sample can improve model performance above

baseline by as much as 50%, or reduce hand-coding costs by up to two-thirds, in applications predicting (1)

U.S. executive-order significance and (2) financial sentiment on social media. We accompany this manuscript

with open-source software to implement these tools, which we hope can make supervised learning cheaper

and more accessible to researchers.

10. 模拟参与方份额（Towards docratic intelligence oversight: Limits, practices, struggles）

Denis Cohen，曼海姆大学曼海姆欧洲社会研究中心（MZES）数据和方法部门高级研究员

Chris Hanretty，伦敦大学皇家霍洛威学院政治学教授

【摘要】本文解决了一个给定规模的政党系统的席位和选票份额的模拟问题。展示了如何使用无序和

有序的狄利克雷分布生成这些共享。本文表明，taagpera 和 Allik（2006, Electoral Studies 25, 696-713）

中描述的规则所给出的平均向量分布几乎与真实世界的数据一样适合，其中每个等级/系统规模组合

都有一个参数。

【原文】We tackle the problem of simulating seat- and vote-shares for a party system of a given size. We

show how these shares can be generated using unordered and ordered Dirichlet distributions. We show that a

distribution with a mean vector given by the rule described in Taagepera and Allik (2006, Electoral Studies

25, 696–713) fits real-world data almost as well as a saturated model where there is a parameter for each

rank/system size combination.

11. 多数地位在势均力敌的选举研究中的作用（The Role of Majority Status in Close

Election Studies）

Matteo Alpino，意大利银行经济学家

Marta Crispino，意大利银行经济学和统计学博士

【摘要】许多研究利用回归不连续框架中的接近选举来确定党派效应，即给定政党执政对某些结果的

影响。本文认为，当在单一成员选区进行时，这种设计可能会发现一种复合效应：党派效应加上多数

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地位效应，即由立法多数成员代表的效应。本文提供了一个简单的策略来解构这两者的纠缠，并通过

模拟进行了测试。最后，用实际数据展示了这个问题的经验相关性。

【原文】Many studies exploit close elections in a regression discontinuity framework to identify partisan

effects, that is, the effect of having a given party in office on some outcome. We argue that, when conducted

on single-member districts, such design may identify a compound effect: the partisan effect, plus the majority

status effect, that is, the effect of being represented by a member of the legislative majority. We provide a

simple strategy to disentangle the two, and test it with simulations. Finally, we show the empirical relevance

of this issue using real data.

【编译：邹梓轩 宋欣蔚】

【责任编辑：封欣怡】

《剑桥国际事务评论》（Cambridge Review of International Affairs）

Cambridge Review of International Affairs，Vol. 37, No. 1, 2024

1.作为存在框架的国家人格和本体安全：超越身份，发现主权（State personhood and

ontological security as a framework of existence: moving beyond identity, discovering

sovereignty）

Nina C. Krickel-Choi，瑞典国际事务研究所副研究员，斯德哥尔摩大学博士及兼职讲师

【摘要】在建构主义研究中，“自我”和“身份”的概念常常被隐含地混为一谈，限制了我们对重要

理论问题的理解。本体论安全研究（OSS）文献提供了一个这样的例子，通常将对“自我安全”的担忧

简化为身份问题，从而限制了 OSS 的分析范围。本文借鉴莱恩（Laing）和吉登斯（Giddens）的著

作，阐述了保持“自我”和“身份”在分析上的区别的理由。将本体论安全理解为一个旨在肯定自我

存在的多维框架，它将“身份”视为本体论安全的一个维度，并从人格的角度概念化“自我”。这样

的解读使我们能够将主权的话语性和仪式性制度理解为一个存在主义框架，所有国家的人格以及本体

《剑桥国际事务评论》（Cambridge Review of International

Affairs）是一份同行评审期刊，发表关于国际事务的创新

学术成果。其涵盖社会科学领域，包括国际关系、历史、

法律、政治经济学、地区研究、发展研究和性别研究。它

致力于采用多样化的方法和方法，并鼓励学术界和政策制

定者提交多学科和跨学科的贡献。其 2022-2023 年的影响

因子为 1.4，在 96 种国际关系期刊中排名第 62。

2024 年第 2 期（总第 14 期）

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论安全都依赖于这个框架。因此，OSS 将受益于考虑身份之外的本体安全性。除此之外，本文还表明，

更清晰地区分“自我”和“身份”阐明了国际关系中关于国家人格的争论，更多地关注这些关键概念

将对更普遍的建构主义研究有所帮助。

【原文】The concepts of ‘self’ and ‘identity’ are often implicitly conflated in constructivist research, limiting

our understanding of important theoretical issues. The Ontological Security Studies (OSS) literature provides

one example of this, often reducing a concern with ‘security of the self’ to a matter of identity, thereby limiting

OSS’ analytical reach. This article draws from the writings of Laing and Giddens to make the case for keeping

‘self’ and ‘identity’ analytically distinct. Understanding ontological security as a multidimensional framework

meant to affirm the self’s existence, it proposes to see ‘identity’ as just one dimension of ontological security,

and to conceptualise ‘self’ in terms of personhood. Such a reading allows us to grasp the discursive and

ritualistic institution of sovereignty as an existential framework on which the personhood, and therefore

ontological security, of all states depends. Thus, OSS would benefit from considering ontological security

beyond identity. Beyond this, the article shows that distinguishing more clearly between ‘self’ and ‘identity’

illuminates the debate on state personhood in IR, indicating that paying more attention to these key concepts

would be helpful for constructivist research more generally.

2.真诚友谊对国际政治的重要性：中国如何寻求重要的友谊（The importance of bona fide

friendships to international politics: China’s quest for friendships that matter）（略）

Nicholas Ross Smith，尼古拉斯·罗斯·史密斯 ；Tracey Fallon，特雷西·法伦

3.海洋流动和海洋链：国际关系理论中的海上力量和海洋帝国（Ocean flows and chains:

sea power and maritime empires within IR theory）

Kevin Blachford，英国伦敦国王学院联合军种指挥与参谋学院国防研究教育讲师

【摘要】国际关系理论建立在领土假设的基础上，这些假设塑造了我们对国家本质、国家体系的兴起

以及国际概念本身的理解。本文首先设问：如果我们不再局限于有界领土，而考虑海洋和海域的影响，

结果会怎样？人类与海洋的互动塑造了历史，从最早的已知政体到早期的现代史，尤其是一系列海上

强国的崛起。正是这些跨越海洋的历史进程从本质上塑造了我们今天所知的现代世界，然而，实际上

海洋领域在国际关系理论中是缺失的。安全学者可能会讨论海盗行为或海军力量的投射，但本文旨在

提供一个更全面的处理方法，将海洋的视角纳入国际关系理论。本文对现代早期海洋帝国的考察展现

了大英帝国是如何通过寻求控制海洋流动和环流而崛起的。

【原文】IR theory rests on territorial assumptions which shape our understanding of the nature of the state,

the rise of the state system and the very concept of the international. The following paper asks, what if we

moved away from a fixation on bounded territory to consider the influence of oceans and the maritime sphere?

Humanity’s interaction with the sea has shaped history from the earliest known polities and early modern

history, in particular, saw the rise of several great maritime powers. It was these movements across oceans

which essentially shaped the modern world we know today, yet, the maritime sphere is virtually absent from

140

IR theory. Security scholars may discuss piracy or projecting naval power, but this article aims to provide a

more comprehensive treatment of incorporating a view of the oceans into IR theory. An examination of early

modern maritime empires shows how the British empire developed by seeking to control ocean flows and

circulations.

4.国内与国外：中国在南海和北极的不同主权理念（Home versus abroad: China’s

differing sovereignty concepts in the South China Sea and the Arctic）

Liselotte Odgaard，挪威国防研究所教授，哈德逊研究所非常驻高级研究员

【原文】The article contrasts China’s interpretations of sovereignty within its so-called motherland in the

South China Sea and far from China’s shores in the Arctic. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has

maintained a pre-modern definition of Chinese boundaries in the South China Sea as territorial and ocean

frontiers with blurred boundaries to other political authorities. Frontiers were without permanent settlements,

but nomads and fishermen recurringly used them within a Chinese imperial system of reciprocal

socioeconomic responsibilities. The South China Sea forms part of this frontier where the PRC argues that

national Chinese legislation applies. By contrast, far from China’s shores in the Arctic, where China is not the

political centre, the PRC seeks to globalise the region, depicting it as a frontier with blurred boundaries of

political authority. China recognises the sovereignty of Arctic states, but simultaneously applies standard

interpretations of international law to legalise the presence of extra-regional states.

5.在击败“军阀”和保卫“蓝色家园”之间：讨论土耳其利比亚政策的合法性与安全性

话语（Between defeating “the warlord” and defending “the blue homeland”: a discourse

of legitimacy and security in Turkey’s Libya policy）

M. Cüneyt Özşahin，土耳其内克梅廷·埃尔巴坎大学政治学与国际关系系副教授

Cenap Çakmak，耳其阿纳多卢大学国际关系系国际法和政治学教授

【摘要】本文试图通过对土耳其政治精英的话语分析来解释土耳其对利比亚部分国际化冲突的关键参

与。根据主题话语分析，本文认为这些精英在与外部受众（国际社会）沟通时，利用一种关于合法性

的话语，为联合国承认的政府提供政治支持，并宣布哈利法•哈夫塔尔将军（the General Khalifa Haftar）

领导的反对派武装是非法的。其次，土耳其外交政策精英表达了他们对维护地中海地区国家安全利益

的承诺，从而通过向内部受众（当地选民）发表安全化的话语来证明土耳其卷入冲突的合理性。关于

海洋边界划界的法律争端是土耳其与法耶兹·萨拉杰（Fayez al-Sarraj）领导的民族团结政府（the

Government of the National Accord (GNA)）和解的基础，也是土耳其坚决反对哈夫塔尔指挥的利比亚

国民军（the Libyan National Army (LNA)）的基础，因为该地区与这种争端有关的错综复杂的关系网

要求两国政府之间缔结双边协定。

【原文】This article seeks to explain Turkey’s critical engagement in the partially internationalised conflict

in Libya by relying on a discourse analysis of Turkish political elites. Drawing on thematic discourse analysis,

the authors argue that these elites utilise, in the way in which they communicate to the external audience (the

2024 年第 2 期（总第 14 期）

141

international community), a discourse of legitimacy by which they lend political support for the UNrecognised government, and declare the General Khalifa Haftar-led forces, its opponents, as illegitimate.

Secondly, Turkish foreign policy elites express their commitment to preserving national security interests in

the Mediterranean, thereby justifying Turkish involvement in the conflict via a security-laden discourse

addressed to the internal audience (the local constituents). Legal disputes, regarding the delimitation of

maritime boundaries has served as the basis for Turkey’s rapprochement with the Government of the National

Accord (GNA), led by Fayez al-Sarraj, and its staunch opposition to the Libyan National Army (LNA),

commanded by Haftar since the web of intricate relations in the region relevant to such disputes requires the

conclusion of bilateral agreements between the governments.

6.美国深度介入南海的非期然后果（The unintended consequences of US deep engagement

in the South China Sea）

Chin-Hao Huang，耶鲁—新加坡国立大学学院政治学副教授

【摘要】深度介入（Deep engagement）——认为力量投射是威慑对手和维护全球安全的最佳政策—

—是美国大战略的一个普遍主张。本文通过对近期南海冲突进行对照比较，提出理论修正，以检验

深度介入的表面逻辑。与之相反，有大量证据表明，深度介入对于阻止中国在海上争端中的强制行

为既没有必要也并不足够。制约中国的一个更为突出的外生因素是，东盟是否对中国的单方面进取

行为采取共同的威胁认知。当区域高度团结时，东盟的集体反应会应对中国的激烈举措。因此，对

美国深入介入南海和地区安全的持续呼吁需要放在东南亚安全偏好的更广泛背景下。

【原文】Deep engagement—the claim that power projection is the optimal policy to deter adversaries and

maintain global security—is a commonly asserted proposition for US grand strategy. This article puts forward

a theoretical corrective by carrying out a controlled comparison of recent conflicts in the South China Sea to

test the logic of deep engagement at face value. Contrary to its claim, there is considerable evidence that deep

engagement is neither necessary nor sufficient for deterring China’s coercive behaviour in the maritime dispute.

A more salient exogenous factor for restraining China is whether the Association of Southeast Asian Nations

(ASEAN) adopts a common threat perception of China’s unilateral provocations. When high levels of regional

unity are observed, ASEAN’s collective response pushes back against China’s bellicose behaviour. Continued

calls for US deep engagement in the South China Sea and regional security would thus need to be placed in

the broader context of Southeast Asia’s security preferences.

【编译：林怡娉】

【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

142

《当代亚洲》（Journal of Contemporary Asia）

Journal of Contemporary Asia，Vol. 54, No.2, 2024

1.印尼警察执法是否过度暴力？2005-2014 年警察枪击事件的动态(Is Indonesian Police

Violence Excessive? The Dynamics of Police Shootings, 2005–2014)

Jacqui Baker，莫道克大学亚洲研究中心讲师

Rus’an Nasrudin，印度尼西亚大学经济与社会研究所讲师

【摘要】在印度尼西亚，关于警察使用武力的争论对如何建构和理解警察枪击问题产生了经验和理论

成果，但仍然缺乏数据支持。本文通过分析 2005 年至 2014 年(总统佐科· 维多多第一个任期前的九

年)全国暴力监测系统(National Violence Monitoring System)数据集各省警察枪击率的时空模式，

首次为填补这一空缺做出了贡献。它评估了警察枪击事件与警察在其工作环境中对威胁的感知之间的

因果关系。在调查期间，本文发现虽然警察开枪率相对较低，但警察在与枪支有关的暴力方面占据明

显的垄断地位，而且其工作环境的威胁感较低。本文在警察枪击事件和警察对威胁的感知之间未发现

因果关系。

【原文】In Indonesia, debates about police use of force occur in the absence of data, with empirical and

theoretical consequences for how the problem of police shootings is framed and understood. This article makes

a first contribution to addressing that absence by analysing the National Violence Monitoring System dataset

for spatial and temporal patterns in police shooting rates across provinces from 2005 to 2014, the nine years

prior to the first term of President Joko Widodo. It assesses the causal relationship between police shootings

and officer perceptions of threat in the environments where they operated threat. For the period surveyed, it is

found that while police shooting rates were comparatively low, police officers had a significant monopoly on

firearm-related violence and operated in environments of low perceived threat. No causal relationship is found

between police shootings and police perceptions of threat.

《当代亚洲》（Journal of Contemporary Asia）是一份 1970

年起出版的学术期刊。该期刊每年出版 4 次，内容涵盖亚

洲的经济、政治和社会发展。目前，期刊的主编为其创办

人 Peter Limqueco 以及 Kevin Hewison。据 2020 年的期刊

引证报告，《当代亚洲》的影响因子为 3.261。

2024 年第 2 期（总第 14 期）

143

2.等级资本主义中的技能和培训：韩国职业培训的兴衰（Skills and Training in

Hierarchical Capitalism: The Rise and Fall of Vocational Training in South Korea）

Timo Fleckenstein，伦敦经济学院社会政策系教授

Soohyun Christine Lee，伦敦国王学院欧洲与国际研究系高级讲师

Jaehyoung Park，伦敦经济学院社会政策系博士

【摘要】从教育和增长相辅相成的经济模式中，韩国已经形成了一种阻碍经济和社会进步的病态平

衡。劳动生产率低下和技能不匹配破坏了该国的经济前景，在日益二元化的劳动力市场中，急剧上

升的不平等削弱了社会凝聚力。不同政治派别的政府已经意识到这些挑战，并考虑重振职业教育和

培训（VET）。然而，本文发现，当发展中国家的集体技能培养被废除时，大雇主是企业和政府之间

碎片化联盟的核心，并将继续破坏任何有意义的职业技能培养的努力。本文认为，该国的等级生产

制度以及与此相关的劳动力市场二元化为职业教育改革的连续失败提供了微观基础;如果不挑战大型

雇主在韩国政治经济中的主导地位，不解决劳动力市场二元论问题，职业教育与培训政策改革的努

力可能仍是徒劳的。

【原文】From an economic model in which education and growth reinforced each other, South Korea has

developed a pathological equilibrium holding back economic and social progress. Low labour productivity

and skills mismatch undermine the economic prospects of the country, and sharp rises in inequality in an ever

more dualised labour market erode social cohesion. Governments of different political persuasion have

recognised these challenges, and they have thought to reinvigorate vocational education and training (VET).

However, this article shows that large employers – which were at the heart of a segmentalist coalition between

business and government when collective skills formation of the Developmental State was dismantled –

continue to undermine any efforts of meaningful vocational skills formation. It is argued that the country’s

hierarchical production regime and, related to this, labour market dualisation provide the micro-foundations

for successive failure in VET reform; and without challenging large employers’ dominant position in the

Korean political economy and without addressing labour market dualism, the reform of VET policy can be

expected to remain a futile endeavour.

3.孪生运动：改革后印度的国家、市场和非精英中产阶级（Twin Movement: State, Market

and the Non-Elite Middle Class in Post-Reform India）

Surya Prakash Upadhyay，印度理工学院曼迪人文与社会科学学院助理教授

Isha Jha，印度理工学院曼迪人文与社会科学学院博士

【摘要】本文通过印度的非精英阶层、普通中产阶级与国家机构和市场过程的相互作用，探讨了 1991

年开始的印度后改革时期的政治经济发展。本文引入了“孪生运动”这一概念，并修正了波兰尼关于

福利和新自由主义国家的差异化领域的双重运动的概念，它限制了对国家与市场之间形成的隐性关系

的探索;也限制了国家如何巧妙地使人们诉诸于市场制度和流程;并迫使/鼓励资本积累，以减轻新自

由主义市场的挑战。这篇民族志文章将视线聚焦于重新建构与新自由主义市场逻辑相适应的国家机构

上;以及这种重塑如何改变国家与公民的关系，并塑造主体性和“中产阶级”。在此过程中，本文描绘

了非精英中产阶级如何在需求、欲望和愿望中定位;以及这些问题如何错综复杂地交织在构成新自由

主义印度城市非精英中产阶级社会、经济和政治生活的日常不安全感、风险和脆弱性中。

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【原文】This article explores political economic developments in India’s post-reform period that began in

1991 through the interactions of the non-elite, ordinary middle-class Indians and state institutions and market

processes. The article introduces “twin movement” as a concept and revises the Polanyian notion of a double

movement of differentiated domains of welfare and neo-liberal state which restricts exploring the tacit

relationships that form between the state and the market; how the state subtly forces people to resort to market

institutions and processes; and forces/encourages capital accumulation to mitigate challenges of the neo-liberal

market. This ethnographic article draws attention to the re-modelling of state institutions that is attuned to neoliberal market logics; and how this re-modelling modifies state–citizen relationships, and shapes subjectivity

and “middleclassness.” In doing so, the article maps how non-elite middleclassness is located in demands,

desires, and aspirations; and how intricately these are weaved into the everyday insecurities, risks, and

vulnerabilities that constitute the social, economic, and political life of the urban non-elite middle class in neoliberal India.

4.大象横冲直撞的案例：巴基斯坦小镇中产阶级的政治（A Case of Rampaging Elephants:

The Politics of the Middle Classes in Small-Town Pakistan）

Asha Amirali，巴斯大学发展研究中心和社会与政策科学系助理研究员

【摘要】本文借鉴了一年来对巴基斯坦农产品市场贸易商的民族志田野调查。文中分析了他们的业务

和更广泛的网络战略，以展示他们——作为巴基斯坦中产阶级的一部分——在积累过程中如何看待国

家并与之互动。商人的经济活动受习惯、契约和与国家官员的选择性接触（国家官员也有选择地与他

们接触）的支配，不可避免地与违背民主原则的政治实践联系在一起。在交易者的所作所为中，既没

有对公共利益的关注，也没有对程序性政治的关注;国家被视为积累的工具，而它本身似乎没有独立于

地方统治阶级的计划;集体组织既可以替代国家监管职能，又可以避免其执法尝试。这些趋势进一步阻

碍人们将中产阶级视为民主的催化剂，并对寻求改革国家的发展战略具有重要影响。

【原文】This article draws on a year of ethnographic fieldwork with traders in a Pakistani agricultural

commodity market. It analyses their business and wider networking strategies to show how they – as a segment

of Pakistan’s middle classes – perceive and interact with the state in the process of accumulation. Ordered by

custom, contract, and selective engagement with state functionaries who also engage them selectively, traders’

economic activity is inextricably bound up with political practices that defy democratic principles. Neither a

concern with the public good nor programmatic politics is visible in what traders do; the state is viewed as an

instrument of accumulation while itself appearing to have no project of its own separate from the local

dominant classes; and collective organisation both substitutes for the regulatory state and staves off its attempts

at enforcement. These trends further militate against viewing the middle classes as catalysts of democracy and

have important implications for development strategies seeking to reform the state.

5.国内行为体与中国基础设施影响力的局限性：来自巴基斯坦的证据（Domestic Actors

and the Limits of Chinese Infrastructure Power: Evidence from Pakistan）

Muhammad Tayyab Safdar，弗吉尼亚大学政治系助理教授