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 译者评述本文结合心理学领域的恐惧管理理论，讨论了暴力冲突的发生是否会对不同性别的政客产生不同的影响效应。文章给出了肯定的回答，指出暴力冲突可能会导致女性领导人的影响力受到冲击，并且会迫使不同性别的领导人遵从既有的性别规范和刻板印象，限制女性政客在冲突中的能动性。本文的推荐理由总体而言可以归纳为三个部分：首先，在理论构建领域，本文综合不同学科领域的知识对领导人在冲突中的行为进行分析，具有创新性；其次，在方法上，文章使用中断时间序列分析，以冲突的发生为节点观察女性与男性领导人的政治参与行为变化，具有较强的严谨性；最后，本文作者还针对“如何提升冲突期间女性政客的领导力”这一问题提出了切实的建议。本文也存在一定不足。一方面，本文的理论构建相对简单，对于“恐惧管理理论”的介绍也略显不足；另一方面，本文研究的资料主要源于俄乌战争中乌克兰政客的网络发言，数据来源较为单一。

未来的研究可以进一步讨论冲突或暴力在何种情况下更加容易刺激不同性别的政客遵从传统的性别规范。例如，“内战”是否比“国家间冲突”更容易强化既有的性别刻板印象？不同国家的政体类型是否会影响冲突中女性政客的表达空间？这些问题都可以在本文的基础上进行进一步讨论。

【校对审核：谈诗琪王逸品施榕】【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

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新刊速递《 国 际 政 治 经 济 学 评 论 》 （ Review of International PoliticalEconomy）

Review of International Political Economy，Vol.31, No.4, 2024

1. 制定优惠贸易协定中的否决权和准入能力（Veto powers and access capabilities inthedesign of preferential trade agreements）

Ninfa M. Fuentes-Sosa，经济研究与教学中心国际研究部主任兼研究教授

【摘要】关于国内政治行为者对制定优惠贸易政策的影响研究主要集中在作为政策变化阻碍的否决权使用者身上，将它们的角色假定为获取经济利益的准入点或渠道。准入点和否决权使用者理论预测，多个准入点会导致保护主义偏见并且许多否决权使用者会对优惠贸易协定有制约性影响。本研究认为，结合否决权使用者和准入点理论，否决权使用者和准入点数量的变化对优惠贸易协定制度特征的影响取决于与政治行为者互动的出口商类型（基于捐赠基金或行业内的出口商）。定量研究表明，当产业内出口价值提升时，否决权使用者以及准入点对优惠贸易协定的范围和自主性的限制性影响较小。这项研究采用了一种新型的数据库来估计由 500 个贸易伙伴生产的 256 种标准国际贸易分类的产业内价值和基于捐赠的出口价值。这项发现强调了考虑政治行为者和经济利益对制定优惠贸易协定的更广泛影响的重要性。

【原文】Studies of domestic political actors’ influence on the design of preferential trade agreements (PTAs)

have focused on veto players as obstacles to policy change, assuming their roles as access points or channelsfor economic interests. Access point and veto player theories predict that multiple access points leadtoaprotectionist bias and that numerous veto players have a constraining influence over PTAs. This studyarguesthat after the veto player and access point theories are combined, the effect of variation in the number of veto《 国 际政 治 经 济学 评 论 》 (Review of International Political

Economy)是一份涵盖国际政治经济学研究的双月刊同行评审学术期刊。其成立于 1999 年，由 Routledge 出版。本刊是国际政治经济学领域的主流期刊之一，与《新政治经济学》(New Political Economy)并列。2024 年期刊影响因子为4.659。

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players and access points on the institutional features of PTAs depends on the types of exporters(endowment-based or intra-industry exporters) with whom said political actors interact. Quantitative testsshow that as the value of intra-industry exports rises, veto players and access points have a less constrainingeffect on the scope and autonomy of PTAs. This study employed a novel dataset to approximate the valuesof intra-industry and endowment-based exports of 256 Standard International Trade Classification (SITC)

products manufactured by 500 trading partners. The findings highlight the importance of consideringthebroader influence of political actors and economic interests on PTA design. 2. 非洲的数字发展之路：在信息通信技术领域为中国结构性力量铺平道路？（Africa’sroads to digital development: paving the way for Chinese structural power in the ICTsector?）

Stephanie Arnold，意大利博洛尼亚大学政治与社会科学系博士候选人，比利时联合国大学CRIS数字治理集群博士研究员

【摘要】在过去的数十年里，中国已经成为了非洲数字发展的主要伙伴。中非在信息通信技术的合作满足了非洲对先进技术和专有技术的需求，同时帮助了中国在全球信息通信技术领域占据了一席之地。尽管这在短期内对非洲的数字发展至关重要，但本文认为中非合作的广度会带来重要的长期后果，即可以使中国拥有对非洲数字发展的潜在控制。通过借鉴苏珊·斯特兰奇的结构性力量支柱理论，本文探讨了光纤网络电缆的推出如何支撑中国对生产的控制，数据中心的建设可能如何影响安全以及研究伙伴如何在未来创新中增强规范与标准——知识支柱。本文认为，中非在这三个领域合作的推动力是中国金融业。为了验证这种说法，作者在撒哈拉以南的 42 个非洲国家组织了一次定性比较分析，表明中国的援助以及中国贷款，在较小程度上，是中非在信息通信技术领域关系的主要驱动力。本文认为中国的金融援助不仅仅促进了非洲的数字发展，而且为中国在信息通信技术领域的结构性力量铺平了道路。

【 原 文 】 Over the past few decades, China emerged as Africa’s main partner in digital development. Sino-African cooperation in the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector meets Africandemand for advanced technologies and know-how while helping China to position itself in the global ICTsector. Albeit crucial for Africa’s digital development in the short term, this paper argues that the breadthof

Sino-African cooperation carries important long-term consequences that could afford China latent control

over Africa’s digital development. Drawing on Susan Strange’s pillars of structural power, this paper

considers how the rollout of fiber-optic network cables underpins Chinese control over production, howtheconstruction of data centers might impinge on security, and how research partnerships enhance norms andstandards in future innovation—the knowledge pillar. The paper argues that the enabling forceof

Sino-African cooperation in these three realms is Chinese finance. To test this claim, I conduct a QualitativeComparative Analysis (QCA) of 42 states in Sub-Saharan Africa, showing that Chinese aid and, to a lesser

extent, Chinese loans are the main drivers of Sino-African ties in the ICT sector. The paper concludes that

Chinese financial support not only promotes Africa’s digital development but also paves the way to Chinesestructural power in the ICT sector.

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3. 不要追踪资金：绘制国际税收的微观代理图（Unfollow the money: mapping the microagents of international tax）

Saila Stausholm，科隆马克斯·普朗克社会研究所博士后研究员

Javier Garcia-Bernardo，乌得勒支大学方法论和统计学助理教授

【摘要】金融全球化使跨国公司能够在各个司法管辖区之间转移利润，以降低税率，这损害了公共财政并使政策制定者感到担忧。虽然已有政策成效多聚焦于能够使税率降低的司法管辖区，但学者们越来越意识到微观层面行为者的重要性。本文使用一种基于领英的新型实证方法，对公司税务顾问们进行地理定位，他们主要是那些具有影响力的微观避税行为主体。本文发现，税务顾问通常位于欧盟和经济合作组织的大城市，而不是被定位为“避税天堂”的地方。通过使用多元回归分析，本文发现税务顾问的位置并没有与公司盈利、财务秘密或者经济活动的所在地相关。相反，它与管理和金融活动相关。本文发现税务顾问不成比例地出现在撰写黑名单的国家上，而不是被列入黑名单的国家。本文认为，对避税行为的有效监管需要关注税务顾问，而不仅仅只关注资金流动的目的地。【原文】Financial globalization has enabled multinational corporations to shift profits between jurisdictionsto lower their tax rate, undermining public finances and concerning policy makers. While policy efforts havefocused on the jurisdictions that enable lower taxes, scholars increasingly recognize the importanceof

micro-level actors. We geographically map corporate tax advisors, influential micro-level actors intaxavoidance, using a novel empirical approach based on LinkedIn. We show that tax advisors are generallylocated in large cities in the EU and OECD, rather than in places targeted as ‘tax havens’. Using multipleregression analysis, we find that the location of tax advisors is not correlated with the location of corporateprofits, financial secrecy, or economic activity. Rather, it correlates with managerial and financial activity. We find that tax advisors are disproportionately placed in the countries writing the blacklists rather thanthecountries blacklisted. We argue that effective regulation of tax avoidance needs to focus on tax advisors, not

only on the destination of financial flows. 4. 范式变革的过程：引导式创新在中国的兴起（The process of paradigmchange: therise of guided innovation in China）

Andrew B. Kennedy，澳大利亚国立大学克劳福德公共政策学院副教授

【摘要】本文为理解科学、技术和创新政策背后的信念提供了一个新框架。基于近来研究所确立的科技创新政策中几种不同的“政策范式”，新框架解释了这些范式如何被理解为等级信仰体系，并确定了每个范式中的不同变体。本文紧接着阐明了各国在这一领域从一种范式过渡到另一种范式的可能方式，重点关注了 1980 年代后“创新体系政策”范式的国际传播。本文强调了关于国家干预经济的本土意识形态如何塑造新范式在接受国的本地化方式。为了探究这一理论的合理性，本文提出了一深入的案例研究，重点关注近几十年来中国对创新体系政策范式的接受和本土化。

【原文】This article offers a new framework for understanding the beliefs behind science, technologyandinnovation (STI) policy. Building on recent research that has identified several distinct ‘policy paradigms’ in

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STI policy, it explains how these paradigms may be understood as hierarchical belief systems, andit

identifies different variants within each paradigm. The article then illuminates one means throughwhichcountries may transition from one paradigm to another in this domain, focusing on the international diffusionof the ‘innovation systems policy’ paradigm after the 1980s. The article emphasizes howlocal ideologyregarding state intervention in the economy shapes how the new paradigm is localized in the receivingstate. To probe the plausibility of this theory, the article presents an in-depth case study focused on China’sreception and localization of the innovation systems policy paradigm in recent decades. 5. 多边贸易体系中发展政策空间的（出人意料）回归：世贸组织上诉机构的封锁对发展 中 国 家 意 味 着 什 么 （ The (surprise) return of development policy space inthemultilateral trading system: what the WTO Appellate Body blockage means forthedevelopmental state）

Kristen Hopewell，英属哥伦比亚大学公共政策与全球事务学院教授兼加拿大全球政策研究主席【摘要】自世界贸易组织成立以来——这导致了全球贸易规则范围的急剧扩大，并使这些规则对各国具有法律约束力——学界强调了该组织对发展政策空间的限制。通过禁止发展中国家的许多标准手段，世贸组织的规则被视为把发展中国家“踢开梯子”，阻止它们使用必要的贸易和工业政策来赶上更发达的经济体。然而，自 2019 年以来，美国通过阻止上诉机构的司法任命，禁用了世贸组织的执行机制。因此，本文认为贸易和发展格局在现今已经发生了根本性的变化：世贸组织规则——曾经是发展政策空间的强大制约——将不再具有法律效力。文章分析了最近发生的两起具有里程碑意义的争端——印尼镍出口限制和印度通过经济特区提供的出口补贴——在这些争端中，发展中国家成功地阻止了世贸组织专家组的裁决，这些裁决将迫使它们废除发展主义政策。具有讽刺意味的是，鉴于美国最初是世贸组织反发展主义规则及其具有约束力的争端解决体系背后的主导力量，美国上诉机构封锁的一个重要后果是多边贸易体系中发展政策空间的重新出现。

【 原 文 】 Since the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO) – which led to a dramaticexpansion in the scope of global trade rules and made those rules legally binding on states – scholars havehighlighted the constraints it has imposed on development policy space. By prohibiting many of the standardtools of the developmental state, the WTO’s rules have been seen as ‘kicking away the ladder’ for

developing countries, preventing them from using the trade and industrial policies needed to catch upwithmore advanced economies. However, since 2019, the US has disabled the WTO’s enforcement mechanismby blocking judicial appointments to the Appellate Body. As a result, this article shows the trade anddevelopment landscape has now changed fundamentally: WTO rules – once a powerful constraint ondevelopment policy space – are no longer legally enforceable. The article analyzes two recent landmarkdisputes – Indonesian nickel export restrictions and Indian export subsidies provided through special

economic zones – in which developing countries have successfully blocked WTO panel rulings that wouldforce them to repeal developmentalist policies. Ironically, given that the US was originally the dominant

force behind the WTO’s anti-developmentalist rules and its binding dispute settlement system, one important

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consequence of the US Appellate Body blockage has been the re-emergence of development policy spaceinthe multilateral trading system. 6.一个古老而新颖的想法：引入 G-Pub，一个公共银行成立的原始数据集（Anold, novel

idea: introducing G-Pub, an original dataset of public bank formation）Devin Case-Ruchala，北卡罗来纳大学阿什维尔分校政治学系博士后研究员【摘要】在金融国际化进程日益凸显的背景下，公共银行是一种重新崛起的金融治理模式，它可以作为反周期危机融资、积极投资（如绿色金融）或保护主义贷款的政策工具。然而，没有系统的研究来探究是什么导致政府首先成立公共银行，一部分原因是缺乏数据。本文通过介绍一个原始数据集、概念框架和描述性实证洞察，以作为未来研究的基础。本文讨论了对公共银行的不同定义，以推进“政府发起的公共银行”的更有针对性的概念化，即由政府成立并通过所有权和/或管理保持在政府控制之下的银行。该数据集包括 1,355 家银行，涵盖 1401 年至 2020 年期间的 195 个国家/地区。利用这些数据，本文检验了流行的假设，即“政府发起的公共银行（G-Pubs）”更有可能在欠发达国家或更专制的国家形成。文章表明，在 1970 年至 2020 年期间，“政府发起的公共银行”的形成反而与发达的民主国家联系在一起。1970 年代之前的描述性分析进一步支持了更复杂的观点。这些发现凸显了重新制定公共银行研究议程的必要性，该议程既要考虑国内和国际政治经济动态，也要考虑国际扩散、金融一体化和危机机制。

【原文】Amidst growing financial internationalization, public banks are a reemerging mode of financial

governance that can serve as a policy tool for counter-cyclical crisis financing, proactive investment (e.g. green finance), or protectionist lending. Yet no systematic studies examine what leads governments toformpublic banks in the first place, in part due to a lack of data. This paper introduces an original dataset, conceptual framework, and descriptive empirical insights to serve as the basis for future research. I discusscontending definitions of public banks to advance the more targeted conceptualizationof

‘government-initiated public banks’ (G-Pubs), or banks that are formed by governments and remainunder

government control through ownership and/or management. The dataset includes 1,355 banks and spans 195countries for the period 1401–2020. Using these data, I test prevailing assumptions suggesting G-Pubs aremore likely to form in less developed or more autocratic countries. I show that for the period 1970–2020, G-Pub formation is instead associated with developed democracies. Descriptive analysis prior to the 1970sfurther supports a more complex view. These findings underscore the need for a renewed research agendaonpublic banking that considers both domestic and international political economic dynamics, includinginternational diffusion, financial integration, and crisis mechanisms. 7. 搭上发展顺风车：世界银行对网约车公司的研究（Taking development for a ride: theWorld Bank’s research with ride-hailing companies）

Kate Bedford，伯明翰大学法律和政治经济学教授

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【摘要】世界银行国际金融公司与网约车公司合作，编写了三份关于性别平等和网约车的研究报告。本文根据关于日益增长的企业联产发展知识的更广泛对话来检验这些报告。重点关注优步等“共享经济”公司的性别和发展潜力的研究观点，它认为女性司机的短缺已被成功地描述为性别和发展问题，而不是由网约车公司自己解决的劳动力供应问题。它提出了一个多方利益相关者解决方案，涉及许可行为者、慈善机构、政府发展机构、银行和保险提供商。性别平等研究有助于一种新的发展常识，包括扩大零工经济中负债累累的“独立承包商”的数量；减轻平台的“监管负担”；以及将非政府组织与企业利益更加紧密地联系在一起。本文阐述了性别研究在世界银行更广泛地转向以商业为主导的发展方向中的核心作用，并强调了在网约车工作方面的一些独特教训。

【原文】The World Bank’s International Finance Corporation has produced three research reports on gender

equality and ride-hailing, in collaboration with ride-hailing companies. This article examines these reports inlight of wider conversations about the growing corporate co-production of development knowledge. Focusing on research claims about the gender and development potential of ‘sharing economy’ firms likeUber, it argues that the shortage of women drivers has been successfully framed as a gender anddevelopment problem, rather than a labour supply problem to be resolved by ride-hailing companiesthemselves. Multi-stakeholder solutions are proposed, involving licensing actors, charities, government

development agencies, banks, and insurance providers. Gender equality research contributes to a newdevelopment common sense involving expanding the numbers of indebted ‘independent contractors’ inthegig economy; reducing ‘regulatory burdens’ on platforms; and binding nongovernmental organizations(NGOs) ever tighter to corporate interests. This article shows the centrality of gender research to the Bank’sbroader reorientation towards business-led development, and highlights some distinctive lessons of workonride-hailing. 【编译：林志俊】【责任编辑：封欣怡】

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《冲突解决杂志》（Journal of Conflict Resolution）Journal of Conflict Resolution，Vol.68, No.6, July 2024

1. 长臂与铁拳：专制镇压与跨国压迫（The Long Arm and the Iron Fist: AuthoritarianCrackdowns and Transnational Repression）

Alexander Dukalskis, 都柏林大学政治与国际关系学院副教授

Saipira Furstenberg，意大利威尼斯卡福斯卡里大学哲学与文化遗产系研究员Sebastian Hellmeier，WZB 柏林社会研究院博士后研究员

Redmond Scales，都柏林大学政治与国际关系学院博士研究生

【摘要】有关跨国镇压的新兴文献已经确定了威权国家用来控制和胁迫其海外人口的几种策略。本文在现有研究的基础上，研究了跨国镇压的国内决定因素。本文认为，国内镇压的增加可能会导致随后的跨国镇压增加，因为国内的镇压会驱使国外的异见，并刺激国家将镇压的目光延伸到境外。为了评估本论点，本文利用了含有约 1200 个案例的数据库，这些案例涉及 1991 年至2019 年期间世界各地的威权国家在国外威胁、攻击、引渡、绑架或暗杀本国公民。本文使用多元回归分析首次定量测试了跨国镇压的国内驱动因素，发现随着国内镇压的加剧，该国随后升级跨国镇压的可能性也大幅增加。【原文】The emerging literature dealing with transnational repression has identified several strategies usedby authoritarian states to control and coerce their populations abroad. This article builds on existing researchby investigating the domestic determinants of transnational repression. It argues that an increase in domesticrepression is likely to lead to a subsequent increase in transnational repression because crackdowns at homedrive dissent abroad and incentivize the state to extend its repressive gaze beyond its borders. To evaluateitsarguments, the article draws on a database of approximately 1200 cases in which authoritarian states aroundthe world threatened, attacked, extradited, abducted, or assassinated their own citizens abroad between1991and 2019. Offering a first quantitative test of domestic drivers of transnational repression, using multivariateregression analysis, the paper finds that as repression intensifies domestically, the likelihood of that statesubsequently escalating its transnational repression also increases substantively.

《冲突解决杂志》（Journal of Conflict Resolution）是一份关于人类冲突的社会科学研究和理论的跨学科杂志。该杂志主要关注国际冲突，但也探讨了各种国家、群体间和人际冲突。该期刊 2022 年的影响因子为 3.1，在国际关系的96 种期刊中排名第 19。

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2. 基于信仰的歧视和暴力宗教敌对行为：全球分析（Faith-Based DiscriminationandViolent Religious Hostilities: A Global Analysis）

Nilay Saiya，南洋理工大学人文与社会学院副教授

Stuti Manchanda， 南阳理工大学人文与社会学院博士研究生

Rahmat Wadidi，圣母大学政治学院研究生

【摘要】一些研究发现，对少数宗教社群的限制与暴力宗教敌对行动的发生有关。然而，这项研究没有考虑到这样一个事实，即少数宗教歧视可以采取不同的形式，因此可能会以不同的方式鼓励暴力。本文试图通过研究不同形式的少数宗教限制及其与宗教暴力的关系来填补这一空白。具体来说，我们分析了三种基本类型的宗教歧视——对少数宗教活动的限制、对少数宗教机构的限制以及对皈依和传教的限制——对宗教多数群体和宗教少数群体实施的暴力行为的比较强度。有趣的是，我们的分析表明，这三种形式的限制都鼓励宗教多数群体的暴力行为，但不会鼓励少数群体的暴力行为。我们用印度基于信仰的歧视和宗教暴力冲突的案例研究补充了统计分析。

【原文】Several studies have found restrictions on minority faith-based communities to be relatedtotheonset of violent religious hostilities. Absent from this work, though, is a consideration of the fact that

minority religious discrimination can take different forms, and, consequently, may encourage violenceindifferent ways. This paper seeks to fill this void by examining different forms of minority religiousrestrictions and their relationship to religious violence. Specifically, we analyze the comparative strengthof

three basic types of religious discrimination—restrictions on minority religious practices, restrictions onminority religious institutions, and restrictions on conversion and proselytizing—on violence carriedout byboth religious majority groups and religious minority groups. Interestingly, our analysis shows all threeforms of restrictions encourage violence from religious majorities, but not from minorities. We supplement

the statistical analysis with a case study of faith-based discrimination and violent religious hostilities inIndia. 3. 扭转局势：内战中的军事干预和谈判的开始（Turning the Tables: Military

Intervention and the Onset of Negotiations in Civil War）

Rebecca Dudley，杨百翰大学政治专业助理教授

【摘要】内战中的谈判何时发生？军事干预如何改变这一过程？虽然现有文献提出了谈判开始的模型——包括调解和无协助的——但如果它们不考虑谈判前卷入冲突的第三方国家，它们就是不完整的。笔者认为军事干预通过三种途径调整谈判障碍，从而影响谈判的开始：军事胜利的可能性、示弱的风险以及存在其他否决方。笔者使用逻辑随机效应模型对非洲内战数据集进行了研究。该论点的延伸涉及干预预期如何影响冲突行为。支持叛军的干预、具有独立利益的干预和不对称干预导致谈判发生的可能性增加。控制干预预期的模型还表明，第三方可以通过预期和后续行动影响交战方的行为。【原文】When do negotiations occur in civil war? How does military intervention alter this process? Whilethe existing literature presents models of the onset of negotiations – both mediated and unassisted – theyareincomplete if they do not consider third-party states involved in the conflict prior to negotiations. I arguethat

military intervention impacts negotiation onset by adjusting barriers to negotiation through three pathways:

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the likelihood of military victory, the risk of signaling weakness, and the presence of additional veto players. I examine these mechanisms using logistic random effects models on a dataset of African civil wars. Anextension of the argument addresses how expectations of intervention shape conflict behavior. Rebel-supporting interventions, interventions with independent interests, and asymmetric interventions leadto an increase in the likelihood of negotiations occurring. Models controlling for expectations of interventionalso suggest that third parties can impact belligerents’ behavior through both expectations andfollow-through. 4. 暴力类型和群体认同：西班牙内战的证据（Type of Violence and IngroupIdentity:Evidence From the Spanish Civil War）

Sergi Martínez，普林斯顿大学博士后研究员

【摘要】战时暴力和专制镇压针对平民的形式多种多样。过去的研究探讨了暴力的原因和后果，但之前没有研究同时评估不同类型的暴力对政治认同的长期影响。本文认为，无差别攻击可以强化群体认同，而民间机构在选择性暴力中的作用可能会产生不利影响。本研究利用原始数据，记录了西班牙内战期间（1936-1939 年）比斯开（巴斯克地区）市政当局对选择性和无差别暴力的揭露情况，研究了其对投票行为的影响（1983-2015 年）。结果表明，法西斯空袭增强了巴斯克民族主义，而选择性暴力则降低了巴斯克政党的受欢迎程度。个人和社区层面的证据表明，空袭促进了政治态度的代际传递。暴力可以增强民族认同，但也可能削弱民族认同：这取决于暴力类型。

【原文】Wartime violence and authoritarian repression against civilians take various forms. Past researchhas explored the causes and consequences of violence, but no previous work simultaneously assessedthelong-term effects of different types of violence on political identities. This paper contends that indiscriminateattacks can reinforce ingroup identity, whereas the role of civilian agency in selective violence may haveadetrimental impact. Equipped with original data capturing municipality-level exposure to both selectiveandindiscriminate violence during the Spanish civil war (1936–1939) in Biscay (Basque Country), this studyexamines its legacy on voting behavior (1983–2015). Results indicate that fascist airstrikes increased Basquenationalism while selective violence diminished the popularity of Basque parties. Individual andcommunity-level evidence suggests that airstrikes fostered the intergenerational transmission of political

attitudes. Violence can boost national identities, but it can also erode them: it depends on the type. 5. 去平台化有用吗？（Does Deplatforming Work?）

Danny Klinenberg，加州大学圣巴巴拉分校经济专业博士研究生

【摘要】社交媒体已成为极端分子筹款和组织活动的渠道。在政府考虑如何监管的同时，一些社交媒体公司已经将攻击性内容的创作者移除——即平台下架。笔者通过两家视频流媒体公司——YouTube及其极右翼竞争对手 Bitchute 移除平台的时间差异，估计了平台下架对收入和观看人数的影响。在YouTube 上被下架会导致每周比特币收入增加 30%，Bitchute 上的观看人数增加50%。Bitchute 活动的增幅低于 YouTube，这意味着平台下架会降低内容创作者的整体观看次数和收入。

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【原文】Social media has become an outlet for extremists to fundraise and organize. While governmentsdeliberate on how to regulate, some social media companies have removed creators of offensive content —deplatforming. I estimate the effects of deplatforming on revenue and viewership, using variationinthetiming of removals across two video-streaming companies — YouTube, and its far-right competitor, Bitchute. Being deplatformed on Youtube results in a 30% increase in weekly Bitcoin revenue anda 50%increase in viewership on Bitchute. This increase in Bitchute activity is less than that on YouTube, meaningthat deplatforming works in decreasing a content creator’s overall views and revenue. 6. 经济胁迫的三难困境（The Economic Coercion Trilemma）Michael-David Mangini，耶鲁大学莱特纳比较与国际政治经济学项目博士后研究员【摘要】各国经常将市场准入作为国际政治中的讨价还价筹码。如果一个国家在给予市场准入之前要求其同时遵守多个问题领域，那么可以最大限度地提高遵守的动力，但也会使其变得脆弱——即任何无法在一个问题领域遵守的目标国家都没有遵守任何领域的激励。更一般地说，经济胁迫计划最多可以实现以下三个目标中的两个：1) 确保广泛的国内政治支持联盟，2) 将有意义的贸易价值与每项政策问题联系起来，3) 确保执行一项政治问题不会降低目标国家遵守其他政治问题的条件的动力。该计划的国内选民、问题本身和国际经济的特点是决定国家如何优先考虑这三个目标的关键因素。三难困境解释了可以与经济价值挂钩的问题的数量和类型。

【原文】States often use market access as a bargaining chip in international politics. A state that requiressimultaneous compliance in multiple issue areas before granting market access maximizes incentives tocomply but also makes them brittle – any targeted states that cannot comply in one issue area havenoincentive to comply in any. More generally, programs of economic coercion can achieve at most twoof thefollowing three objectives: 1) secure a broad coalition of domestic political support, 2) the associationof

meaningful trade value with each policy issue, and 3) assurance that enforcing one political issue will not

reduce the target’s incentives to comply with conditionality on others. Characteristics of the program’sdomestic constituency, of the issues themselves, and of the international economy are key determinants of

how the state prioritizes the three objectives. The trilemma explains the number and types of issues that canbe linked to economic value. 7. 边境安全观念的变化影响移民意愿水平（Changes in Perceptions of Border SecurityInfluence Desired Levels of Immigration）

Ryan C. Briggs，圭尔夫大学政治系助理教授

Omer Solodoch，希伯来大学助理教授

【摘要】人们对移民的安全担忧日益增加。许多国家通过加强边境来应对。然而，人们对边境安全措施对移民威胁的影响知之甚少。边境可能会促进群体认同并传播外来者的恐惧。相反，它们可能会增强公民的安全感和对移民的控制力。我们通过对 1000 多名美国人的配额样本进行的调查实验来测试这些说法。研究结果表明，将更多的政府资源用于边境安全会提高移民的期望水平。这种效应可能是

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由于边境安全措施引起的对移民的控制感，即使移民的数量或特征保持不变，从而产生这种效应。我们的研究结果表明，边境管制被广泛视为封闭和孤立的象征，它可以增加公众对移民的支持。【原文】Security concerns about immigration are on the rise. Many countries respond by fortifyingtheir

borders. Yet little is known about the influence of border security measures on perceived threat fromimmigration. Borders might facilitate group identities and spread fear of outsiders. In contrast, theymight

enhance citizens’ sense of security and control over immigration. We test these claims using surveyexperiments run on a quota sample of over 1000 Americans. The findings show that allocatingmoregovernment resources to border security increases desired levels of immigration. This effect is likelydrivenby a sense of control over immigration, induced by border security measures even when the number or

characteristics of immigrants remain unchanged. Our findings suggest that border controls, which are widelyconsidered as symbols of closure and isolation, can increase public support for immigration. 【编译：王涵婧】【责任编辑：封欣怡】

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《国际事务》（International Affairs）International Affairs，Vol.100, No.4, 2024

1. 抗击下一场疫情？新冠肺炎疫情后卫生紧急状况下的民事和军事合作（Fightingthenext pandemic? Civil–military collaboration in health emergencies after COVID–19）Colin McInnes，亚伯大学国际政治系教授

【摘要】在过去十年中，军队一直是应对卫生突发事件，特别是疾病爆发的重要力量。尽管军民合作在卫生领域有着悠久的传统，但在 COVID-19 事件中，军方在全球卫生、人道主义干预和多部门性等叙事所建立的宽松环境下，在世界范围内的应用是前所未有的。这就造成了一个两难的局面：军队很可能成为应对重大突发卫生事件的一个要素，而这不仅有可能使突发卫生事件军事化，而且会更普遍地影响社会与军队之间的平衡。此外，对 COVID 大流行的应对表明，目前的应急计划往往没有为在卫生危机中使用军队做好充分准备，从而降低了反应的有效性。本文探讨了对卫生安全化的担忧如何演变为对军事化的担忧，以及如何在未来的卫生突发事件中有效使用军队，而不冒卫生事件军事化的风险或更广泛地破坏军民关系的问题。尽管卫生领域有着悠久的军民合作传统，但COVID-19 在全球卫生、人道主义干预和多部门合作的叙事所建立的宽松环境中，出现了前所未有的全球军队使用。这造成了一个困境：军队很可能是应对重大卫生紧急情况的重要因素，这不仅有导致卫生紧急情况军事化的风险，而且更广泛地影响社会与军队之间的平衡。此外，对 COVID 大流行的应对表明，当前的应急计划往往没有为在卫生危机中使用军队做好准备，从而降低了应对的有效性。本文探讨了对健康安全化的担忧如何演变为对军事化的担忧，以及如何在未来的卫生紧急情况下有效地使用军队，而不会冒着健康军事化的风险或更广泛地损害军民关系。

【 原 文 】 Over the past decade, militaries have been highly visible elements in the response tohealthemergencies and in particular disease outbreaks. Although there has been a long tradition of civil–militarycollaboration in health, COVID–19 saw an unprecedented worldwide use of militaries which occurredwithina permissive environment established by narratives of global health, humanitarian interventionandmulti-sectorality. This creates a dilemma: militaries will likely be an important element in respondingtoamajor health emergency and this risks not only militarizing health emergencies, but affects the balancebetween society and the military more generally. Moreover, the response to the COVID pandemic suggested《国际事务》（International Affairs）是国际关系领域的一流学术期刊，也是多学科综合性学术期刊。本刊于 1992 年由伦敦皇家国际事务研究所查塔姆学院（Chatham House）创立，内容来源广泛，力图囊括业内专家、学术新秀对重点、热点问题的最新思考。2022 年期刊影响因子为 4.5，在96 个国际关系类刊物中位列第 7 名。

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that current emergency planning is often poorly prepared for the use of militaries in health crises, therebyreducing the effectiveness of a response. This article engages with how concerns over the securitizationof

health have evolved into concerns over militarization, and the question of how militaries might be usedeffectively in future health emergencies without risking the militarization of health or damagingcivil–military relations more widely.Over the past decade, militaries have been highly visible elements intheresponse to health emergencies and in particular disease outbreaks. Although there has been a long traditionof civil–military collaboration in health, COVID–19 saw an unprecedented worldwide use of militarieswhich occurred within a permissive environment established by narratives of global health, humanitarianintervention and multi-sectorality. This creates a dilemma: militaries will likely be an important element inresponding to a major health emergency and this risks not only militarizing health emergencies, but affectsthe balance between society and the military more generally. Moreover, the response to the COVIDpandemic suggested that current emergency planning is often poorly prepared for the use of militaries inhealth crises, thereby reducing the effectiveness of a response. This article engages with howconcerns over

the securitization of health have evolved into concerns over militarization, and the question of howmilitariesmight be used effectively in future health emergencies without risking the militarization of healthor

damaging civil–military relations more widely. 2. 乌克兰与军事援助的机会成本（Ukraine and the opportunity costs of militaryaid）Luke Glanville，澳大利亚国立大学国际关系系教授

James Pattison，曼彻斯特大学政治系教授

【摘要】西方国家向乌克兰提供了数十亿美元的军事援助，以帮助其对抗俄罗斯。然而，尽管对战争引发的道德问题进行了多次讨论，但对这种军事援助的机会成本的讨论却很少。从被迫流离失所到全球贫困，从可预防的疾病到气候变化，乌克兰冲突只是世界面临的众多挑战之一，那么西方优先考虑对乌克兰的军事援助是否正确？本文首次详细探讨了这个问题，认真考虑了各国面临的非理想可行性约束。它首先阐述了由于机会成本而反对对乌克兰进行军事援助的表面理由。然后，它探讨了，并在很大程度上拒绝了两种回应：军事援助是保护乌克兰自决权所必需的，也是阻止独裁主义前进所必需的。它认为，关于机会成本的反对意见具有很强的说服力，并且反对向乌克兰提供大部分军事援助（尽管不是全部）。这一论点对各国应在多大程度上优先考虑军事援助而不是其他应对全球挑战的手段具有更广泛的影响。

【原文】Western states have provided billions of dollars of military aid to Ukraine to help it in its war

against Russia. Yet, despite numerous discussions of the ethical issues raised by the war, there has beenlittlediscussion of the opportunity costs of this military assistance. Is it right that the West has prioritized militaryassistance to Ukraine, when the conflict in Ukraine is just one of numerous challenges facing the world, from forced displacement to global poverty, preventable disease to climate change? This article offers thefirst detailed engagement with this issue, taking seriously the nonideal feasibility constraints that states face. It firsts set out the prima facie case against assisting Ukraine militarily due to the opportunity costs. It thenexplores—and largely rejects—two responses: that military assistance is required to protect Ukrainianself-determination and that it is needed to stop the march of authoritarianism. It argues that the opportunitycosts objection has serious force and counts against much of the provision of military assistance to Ukraine

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(although not all). This argument has broader implications for the extent to which states should prioritizemilitary aid over other means of addressing global challenges. 3. 西方在战略方面为何如此糟糕（Why is the West so rotten at strategy?）M L R Smith，伦敦国王学院战争研究系教授

【摘要】为什么西方外交政策从阿富汗到乌克兰都呈现出持续的战略失败记录？为什么尽管人们致力于寻找良好战略的基础，但结果仍然如此糟糕？本研究旨在以严谨的学术态度来研究这些问题。它指出，无法以适当的方式处理问题是导致战略结果不佳和政策制定中反战略偏好增长的主要因素。这种不均衡性主要源于自由派精英对道德使命的承诺，而这种承诺破坏了退出方案和有限制的目标。这引发了一种不断升级的动态，并不可避免地导致失败。此外，很少有人对预测上的无能或鲁莽的倡导负责，这只会加剧战略表现不佳的倾向。该论点认为，这些因素都可以在持久的全面战争范式中得到体现，这种范式对西方政策制定产生了过度决定性的影响，推动战略制定朝着抽象目标和无限制地使用资源的方向发展。尽管西方战略制定中这些根深蒂固的问题没有简单的解决办法，但本文认为，尝试将战略理念从“解决问题”转变为“构建问题”，可以为更深思熟虑的政策反思提供前景，并促进从错误中学习而不是重蹈覆辙。

【原文】Why has western foreign policy exhibited a record of sustained strategic failure, fromAfghanistanto Ukraine? Why is it that despite the intellectual attention devoted to identifying the foundations of goodstrategy, outcomes remain so poor? This study seeks to bring a process of academic rigour to these questions. It pinpoints an inability to relate to problems proportionately as the major factor that accounts for badstrategic results and the growth of an anti-strategic predilection in policy-making. This lackof

proportionality arises largely from a liberal-elite commitment to moral missions that undermine exit plansand bounded objectives. This sets in train an escalatory dynamic that inexorably spirals towards failure. Furthermore, rarely is there any accountability for predictive ineptitude or reckless advocacy, which merelyentrenches the propensity towards poor strategic performance. The argument contends that these factors canall be captured within an enduring paradigm of total war, which exerts an overdetermining influenceonwestern policy-making, pushing the formulation of strategy towards abstract goals and the unrestrainedapplication of resources. While there are no easy answers to overcome these deep-seated problems inwestern strategic formulation, this article suggests that an attempt to move the idea of strategy awayfrom‘problem-solving’ to ‘problem-framing’ can offer the prospect of more considered policy reflectionandfacilitate a process of learning from mistakes rather than repeating them. 4. 什么是种族？认知模糊与自由国际秩序（What is race? Epistemic ambiguityandliberal international order）

Kavi Joseph Abraham，杜伦大学国际关系系助理教授

【摘要】人们越来越关注反殖民主义行为者如何在本世纪中叶的自由国际秩序(LIO) 形成过程中推进种族平等规范。然而，人们较少关注同时发生的关于“种族”科学对象的认识论冲突及其政治影响。在战后秩序建设期间以及种族平等的政治斗争中，科学界对种族作为人类多样性分类手段的分析效用进行了广泛而深入的辩论。我认为，种族在认识论上是模棱两可的，夹在社会科学家和哲学家（他们将种族理解为类似于种族的社会结构）与自然科学家（他们认为种族是生物学基础）之间。这种分裂

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不仅限于学术辩论，还塑造了关于 LIO 种族平等制度化的政治和规范斗争。采用以对象为的方法，本文认为种族的认识论模糊性产生了政治影响，既允许在 LIO 中重现殖民逻辑，也为抵抗策略提供了空间。笔者未采用线性因果关系，而是从经验层面上来描绘认知模糊性在本世纪中叶国际秩序的建立中所发挥的作用。

【 原 文 】 There is increasing interest in how anticolonial actors advanced a norm of racial equalityinmid-century formations of liberal international order (LIO). Less attention, however, is affordedtosimultaneous epistemic conflicts over the scientific object of ‘race’ and their political effects. Duringpostwar order-building and alongside political struggles for racial equality, there was wide anddeepscientific debate on the analytical utility of race as a means to categorize human diversity. Race, I

demonstrate, was rendered as epistemically ambiguous, caught between social scientists and philosopherswho understood it as a social construct akin to ethnicity and natural scientists who maintained a biological

basis. This split was not confined to academic debate but shaped political and normative struggles over theinstitutionalization of racial equality in LIO. Adopting an object-oriented approach, I argue that theepistemic ambiguity of race generated political effects, at once permitting the reproduction of colonial logicsin LIO as well as providing latitude for strategies of resistance. Rather than a linear causal effect, I

empirically map the work that epistemic ambiguity performed in the creation of mid-century international

order. 5. 技术标准的地缘政治：美国、欧盟和中国做法的历史背景（The geopolitics of

technology standards: historical context for US, EU and Chinese approaches）Nicholas Zúñiga

【摘要】人们越来越关注反殖民主义行为者如何在本世纪中叶的自由国际秩序(LIO) 形成过程中推进种族平等规范。然而，人们较少关注同时发生的关于“种族”科学对象的认识论冲突及其政治影响。在战后秩序建设期间以及种族平等的政治斗争中，科学界对种族作为人类多样性分类手段的分析效用进行了广泛而深入的辩论。我认为，种族在认识论上是模棱两可的，夹在社会科学家和哲学家（他们将种族理解为类似于种族的社会结构）与自然科学家（他们认为种族是生物学基础）之间。这种分裂不仅限于学术辩论，还塑造了关于 LIO 种族平等制度化的政治和规范斗争。采用以对象为的方法，本文认为种族的认识论模糊性产生了政治影响，既允许在 LIO 中重现殖民逻辑，也为抵抗策略提供了空间。笔者未采用线性因果关系，而是从经验层面上来描绘认知模糊性在本世纪中叶国际秩序的建立中所发挥的作用。

【原 文】This article provides a review of the historical trends that are shaping global competitionfor

standard setting in emerging technologies. Specifically, it explores how the traditional rule-makers of

international standardization, namely the United States and Europe, are responding to the rise of Chinainstandard-setting. The article argues that three polities are adapting their standard-setting strategies to shiftingpower dynamics in the international technology order. To preserve its competitive advantage, the USisbecoming more interventionist and proactive in setting technology standards. China has developedalong-term standardization strategy to bolster its domestic industrial development, increase its influenceand

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reap greater profits from the process of rule-making. Finally, the EU is seeking a third way that strikesabalance between competition and cooperation to preserve values like interoperability, whichhavehistorically benefited its single market and the global economy at large. Our historical reviewshows that, while the three polities have different priorities and face distinct challenges, they all seemto convergetowards a greater role for governments in standard-setting. 6. 外交政治化：大使任命的比较研究（The politicization of diplomacy: a comparativestudy of ambassador appointments）

Birgitta Niklasson，哥德堡大学政治学系讲师

Katarzyna Jezierska，哥德堡大学政治学系副教授

【摘要】外交政治化削弱了外交部门的专业性，可以说危及了国家的对外关系。然而，这种现象在很大程度上并未被学术界审视。公共行政对政治化的研究通常忽视了外交部门，而外交学者几乎只关注美国。我们对大使任命的探索性研究比较了 2019 年 669 名大使的政治化水平和模式（通过有政治关系的专业人士或政治任命者），这些大使来自七个国家和三个行政传统。分析以三个预期为指导：1）总体上政治化程度更高的国家会任命更多非职业大使；2）政治任命者的赞助招募侧重于低艰苦的职位；3）有政治关系的专业人士被用来控制具有政治重要性的外国使团。本文发现，各国以不同的程度和方式将其外交部门政治化。在本文的案例中，任命有政治关系的专业人士而不是政治任命者是最常见的政治化方式。在这方面，美国是一个例外，这也表明需要对外交政治化进行比较研究。因此，本文通过为这一迄今尚未深入探讨的话题的未来研究设定议程做出了重要贡献。【原文】A politicization of diplomacy weakens the professionalism of the foreign service and arguablyendangers the external relations of states. Yet, this phenomenon has largely escaped scholarly scrutiny. Public administration research on politicization usually overlooks the foreign service, whereas diplomacyscholars have focused almost exclusively on the United States. Our exploratory study of ambassador

appointments compares the levels and modes of politicization (through politically connected professionals, or political appointees) of 669 ambassadors in 2019, across seven countries and three administrativetraditions. The analysis is guided by three expectations: 1) countries that are more politicized overall appoint

more non-career ambassadors; 2) patronage recruitment of political appointees focuses on low-hardshippostings; and 3) politically connected professionals are used to control politically important foreign missions. We find that states politicize their foreign services to a varied degree and in different ways. Appointingpolitically connected professionals instead of political appointees is the most common way of politicizationamong our cases. In this regard, the US is an outlier, which also points to the need of studying politicizationof diplomacy comparatively. This article thus makes an important contribution by setting the agendafor

future research on this hitherto underexplored topic. 7. 战争阴影下的军事化与流行文化：2022 年欧洲歌唱大赛（Militarization andpopularculture in the shadow of war: the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest）Inbar Noy，希伯来大学国际关系系博士研究生

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【摘要】在持续的战争背景下，文化大型活动的政治作用是什么？本文探讨了战争阴影下文化大型活动与军事化进程之间的相互作用。它解决了两个主要问题：战争期间对此类活动的政治性缺乏关注，以及流行文化学者通常对军事化的具体理解。它研究了军事化的物质和象征形式的发展，并探讨了大型活动背后的商业逻辑对军事化实践强化和正常化的影响。从实证角度来看，本文重点关注了在2022年欧洲歌唱大赛中以及通过该大赛发展起来的不同军事化进程，以应对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰。它研究了这些进程在乌克兰（通过 Kalush 管弦乐队的军事化和乌克兰歌曲“Stefania”的军事化）、欧洲歌唱大赛本身以及整个欧洲（通过参加比赛）是如何发挥作用的。这样做也有助于更广泛地讨论欧洲安全身份的变化以及新的军事化自由欧洲身份的发展。本文还利用社交媒体数据，强调了此类平台在军事化进程中的作用。

【 原 文】 What is the political role of cultural mega-events in the context of ongoing war? The articleexamines the interaction between cultural mega-events and militarization processes in the shadowof war. It

addresses two main gaps: the lack of attention to the politics of such events during war, and the specificunderstanding of militarization usually adopted by popular culture scholars. It examines the development of

material and symbolic forms of militarization, and addresses the impact of the commercial logic behindmega-events on the intensification and normalization of militarized practices. Empirically, the article focuseson the different militarization processes that developed in and through the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest, inresponse to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It examines how these play out in Ukraine (throughthemilitarization of the band Kalush Orchestra and the militarization of the Ukrainian song ‘Stefania’), withinthe Eurovision contest itself and across Europe (through its participation in the competition). In doingsoit

also contributes to the broader debate about the changing security identity of Europe, and the development of

a new militarized liberal European identity. Using data from social media, the article also highlights theroleof such platforms in militarization processes. 8. 尼日尔三角洲的海盗和更广泛的“枪支生意”（Piracy and the broader ‘gunbusiness’in the Niger Delta）

Katja Lindskov Jacobsen，哥本哈根大学政治系副教授

Amanda Møller Rasmussen，奥胡斯大学政治学博士研究生

【摘要】海盗行为不能脱离其他（犯罪）行为单独理解，但我们如何探索这种联系，以及为什么了解它们对海盗和反海盗的影响很重要？尼日尔三角洲的海盗活动已降至历史最低水平，本文探讨了海盗在不靠海盗活动维持生计时会做什么。因此，本文对海盗行为中未被充分探索的方面提供了新颖的经验见解。此外，本文使用这个案例研究来证明基础性启发的概念化的重要性远远超出了海盗和反海盗的分析。展示海盗行为如何与干预措施未解决的更广泛且往往暴力的基础设施相关联，并强调这种联系的连续性和变化的关键影响，是理解干预参与者面临的更广泛困境的核心的第一步：如何概念化界定问题的必要性，同时理解未解决的问题维度的重要性？本文的建议是，基础性启发的方法提供了一个有益的起点，本文在分析尼日尔三角洲海盗如何成为更广泛的“枪支生意”格局的一部分时证明了这一建议，这不仅涉及不同类型的犯罪，还涉及不同类型的受害者。

【原文】Piracy cannot be understood in isolation from other (criminal) engagements, but howcanweexplore such linkages and why is it relevant to understand their implications, both for piracyandcounterpiracy? Appreciating that Niger Delta-based piracy has dropped to historically low levels, this article

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explores what pirates do when they do not sustain themselves by engaging in piracy. As such, the articleoffers novel empirical insights into underexplored dimensions of piracy. Moreover, we use this case-studytodemonstrate the relevance of an infrastructure-inspired conceptualization much beyond analyses of piracyand counterpiracy. Showing how piracy is linked to broader and often violent infrastructures that

interventions leave unaddressed, and stressing key implications of the continuity and change in such linkages, is a first step towards appreciating the centrality of a broader dilemma that intervention actors confront: howto conceptualize the necessity to delimit a problem, while appreciating the significanceof

problem-dimensions left unaddressed? Our suggestion is that an infrastructure-inspired approach offersahelpful starting-point, a suggestion that we demonstrate in an analysis of how Niger Delta-basedpiracyforms part of a broader ‘gun business’ landscape, which does not only entail different types of crime but alsovarious types of victims. 9. 俄罗斯因素：情感、叙事和重塑中国在国际冲突中的规范（The Russianfactor:emotions, narratives and reshaping China's norms in international conflicts）Xiaoyu Lu（吕晓宇），北京大学国际关系学院助理教授

Tinghao Zhang

【摘要】尽管俄罗斯处于弱势地位，但它如何对中国在叙利亚和乌克兰等国际冲突中的规范方法产生持续而持久的影响？本文提出了一个理论框架，将国际关系中的情感转向和规范研究联系起来。它将情感概念化为规范脚本的情感基础设施：共同的政治感受产生共鸣，在此基础上，有说服力的叙述有助于维持团结并使规范变革制度化。本文利用俄罗斯和中国的主要资源，并使用过程追踪来确定伙伴关系和俄罗斯运动的制度渠道中的关键节点，展示了中国与俄罗斯的结盟并非完全基于地缘政治利益或建构身份，而是一种孤立和边缘化的情感，这种情感首先引起了俄罗斯参与者的共鸣，然后被俄罗斯参与者利用。此外，本文还确定了三种类型的有说服力的叙述，用于构建连续性、类比和认同，以巩固围绕同单一西方威胁的情感共鸣并诱导规范趋同。这促使中国采取与国家利益和主权与领土完整规范相冲突的政策，引发对俄罗斯影响力的反思，同时凸显了情感外交日益增长的重要性。【原文】How did Russia, despite being in a weaker position, exercise a continuous and resilient influenceonChina's normative approach to international conflicts from Syria to Ukraine? This article proposes atheoretical framework that connects the affective turn and norm studies in International Relations. It

conceptualizes emotions as the affective infrastructure of norm scripts: shared political feelings createresonance, based on which persuasive narratives work to maintain solidarity and institutionalize normativechanges. Drawing on primary Russian and Chinese resources and using process tracing to identify critical

junctures in the partnership and institutional channels for Russian campaigns, this article demonstrates howChina's alignment with Russia is not solely based on geopolitical interests or constructed identities but rather

a result of feelings of isolation and marginalization that firstly resonated with and then exploited by Russianactors. Furthermore, this article identifies three types of persuasive narratives used to construct continuity, analogy and identification in consolidating emotional resonance around the threat of a homogenous West

and inducing normative convergence. This drives China to adopt policies in conflict with national interestsand norms on sovereignty and territorial integrity that trigger a reflective assessment of the Russianinfluence, while underlining the growing importance of emotion diplomacy.

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【编译：王涵婧】【责任编辑：封欣怡】《国际事务》（International Affairs）International Affairs，Vol.100, No.3, May 2024

1. 气候变化与建设和平：新兴研究议题的子主题（Climate change and peacebuilding:sub-themes of an emerging research agenda）

Florian Krampe, 斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所气候变化与风险项目主任

Dylan O'Driscoll, 英国考文垂大学信任、和平与社会关系中心副教授

McKenzie Johnson, 伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳香槟分校助理教授

Dahlia Simangan, 广岛大学国际关系学副教授

Farah Hegazi, 斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所气候变化与风险项目研究员

Cedric de Coning,挪威国际事务研究所和平、冲突与发展研究小组研究员

【摘要】气候变化正在对全球安全与努力建设和平产生深远影响。虽然现有的研究主要集中在气候变化与冲突之间的联系上，但它在很大程度上忽视了气候变化、受冲突影响的国家和建设和平之间的复杂相互作用。气候变化加剧了受冲突影响的社会中现有的脆弱性，增加了生活压力，并对粮食、水和能源安全产生了负面影响。这尤其令人担忧，因为在公共机构已经无法满足人口需求的情况下，气候变化带来的感受往往最为强烈。因此，气候变化可能加剧不满情绪，并阻碍维持、加强和建设和平的能力。尽管建设和平领域的从业人员开始对气候变化的影响作出反应，但学术研究尚未充分解决气候变化如何影响建设和平以及建设和平战略如何有效应对的问题。为了填补这一空白，需要从气候安全、环境建设和平、环境研究以及和平与冲突研究中汲取多学科方法，以制定一个涵盖气候变化与建设和平交叉点的研究议题。通过认识到气候变化在建设和平努力中的重要性，该研究议题旨在提供批判性见解并指导未来的研究。

【原文】Climate change is having profound effects on global security and peacebuilding efforts. Whileexisting research has mainly focused on the link between climate change and conflict, it has largely《国际事务》（International Affairs）是国际关系领域的一流学术期刊，也是多学科综合性学术期刊。本刊于 1992 年由伦敦皇家国际事务研究所查塔姆学院（Chatham House）创立，内容来源广泛，力图囊括业内专家、学术新秀对重点、热点问题的最新思考。2024 年期刊影响因子为 7.91。

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overlooked the complex interplay between climate change, conflict-affected states and peacebuilding. Climate change exacerbates existing vulnerabilities in conflict-affected societies by adding stress tolivelihoods and negatively impacting food, water and energy security. This is particularly concerningasclimate change is often felt most acutely in settings where public institutions are already failing to meet thepopulation's needs. Consequently, climate change can contribute to exacerbating grievances and hinder theability to maintain, reinforce and build peace. Although practitioners in the peacebuilding field are beginningto respond to the effects of climate change, academic research has not adequately addressed the questionof

how climate change affects peacebuilding and how peacebuilding strategies can respond effectively. Tofill

this gap, a multidisciplinary approach drawing from climate security, environmental peacebuilding, environmental studies, and peace and conflict studies is needed in order to develop a research agendathat

encompasses the intersections of climate change and peacebuilding. By recognizing the importanceof

climate change in peacebuilding efforts, this research agenda aims to provide critical insights andguidefuture studies. 2. 保护漏洞：斯里兰卡的儿童兵康复与军事化治理（Protection gaps: childsoldierrehabilitation and militarized governance in Sri Lanka）

Kate Macfarlane,澳大利亚查尔斯达尔文大学艺术与社会学院国际关系高级讲师【摘要】儿童兵解除武装、复员和重返社会的实践在保护儿童免遭伤害和暴力方面有着坚定的规范性承诺。然而，在理解如何将这些规范转化为满足儿童的社会和保护需要方面，存在着政策和研究知识上的差距。在斯里兰卡，自 2009 年起，来自埃拉姆泰米尔猛虎解放组织（猛虎组织）的594 名前儿童兵接受了国家级康复计划。在内战结束时实施的军事化治理框架无法实现国家对国际儿童保护规范的参与。本文提供了基于对猛虎组织前男童和女童士兵的 45 次半结构化访谈的主要数据来源。斯里兰卡的个案研究表明，解除武装、复员和重返社会方案导致重新调整了对儿童和成人参与者的社会和政治控制。因此，前儿童兵们的社会和保护需求仍然复杂且未得到解决，因为国家制造了与贫困和军事化有关的结构性暴力。本文提出了一个框架，以解释成人与儿童关系的代际权力动态，以及制度化保护的政治，以解释儿童的正式康复和回归经历。

【原文】Child soldier disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) practice has a strong normativecommitment to protect children from harm and violence. However, there exist policy and researchknowledge gaps in comprehending the translation of such norms in meeting the social and protective needsof children. In Sri Lanka from 2009, 594 former child soldiers from the Liberation Tamil Tigers of Elam(LTTE) underwent a national rehabilitation programme. National engagement with international childprotection norms could not materialize from a militarized governance framework implemented at the endof

the civil war. This article provides a primary source of data based on 45 semi-structured interviews withformer boy and girl child soldiers from the LTTE. The Sri Lankan case-study demonstrates that the DDRprogramme resulted in the re-calibration of social and political control over child and adult participants. Former child soldiers' social and protective needs therefore remain complex and unresolved because of stategenerated structural violence related to poverty and militarization. The article advances a frameworkto

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account for a generational power dynamic of adult–child relations, and the politics of institutionalizedprotection to account for children's formal rehabilitation and return experiences. 3. 做出弥补：情绪和西方对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的反应（Making amends: emotions andthe western response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine）

Rita Floyd, 伯明翰大学冲突与安全副教授

Mark Webber, 伯明翰大学国际政治学教授，罗马北约防务学院非常驻副研究员【摘要】西方对俄罗斯 2022 年 2 月全面入侵乌克兰的反应是前所未有的。欧盟、七国集团和北约国家对俄罗斯实施制裁和外交孤立，并向乌克兰提供足以确保泽连斯基政权生存的军事援助。事实证明，这些努力不足以将俄罗斯从其对乌克兰领土的占领中驱逐出去。尽管如此，当这些反应在入侵之后开展时，它们被视为（并且经常被证明为）大胆的、创新的和坚定的——一种对严重行为的必要回应。是什么解释了这种反应？在这篇文章中，我们认为答案在于西方对过去处理俄罗斯和乌克兰关系中的行动和错误而感到的内疚和羞耻感。通过对关键演讲、声明和对西方主要政策制定者（过去和现在）的采访的定性话语分析，我们认为这两种情绪——表现为道歉和承认错误——是政策的重要驱动因素。本文为关于世界政治中情感的新兴文献做出了贡献。除了对西方史无前例的反应提供连贯的解释外，我们的论点还具有政策意义。虽然承认不法行为是值得称赞的，但它可能导致行为者过度补偿，从而导致进一步的错误和政策失败。让乌克兰快速加入欧盟就是这样一个错误。【 原 文 】 The western response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022wasunprecedented. The states of the European Union, the G7 and NATO have targeted Russia with sanctionsand diplomatic isolation, and furnished Ukraine with military assistance sufficient to ensure the Zelenskyregime's survival. These efforts have proven insufficient to dislodge Russia from its occupation of Ukrainianterritory. Nonetheless, when launched in the aftermath of the invasion, they were seen (and often justifiedas)

as bold, innovative, and steadfast—a necessary response to a grievous act. What explains this response?Inthis article we argue that the answer lies in the emotions of guilt and shame for past actions and mistakes inthe West's dealings with Russia and Ukraine. Informed by a qualitative discourse analysis of key speeches, statements and interviews with leading western policy-makers (past and present), we regard these twoemotions—expressed as apologies and the acknowledgment of mistakes—as important drivers of policy. This article contributes to the bourgeoning literature on emotions in world politics. In addition to offeringacoherent explanation of the West's unprecedented response our argument has policy implications. Whiletheadmission of wrongdoing is laudable, it can lead to actors overcompensating, resulting in further mistakesand policy failures. Fast-tracking Ukraine into the European Union would be one such error. 4. 打开修昔底德陷阱：兴衰论的谱系（Opening the Thucydides trap: a genealogyof

rise-and-fall theory）

Matthew David Hamilton, 乔治城大学政府系博士候选人

Mark Fisher, 乔治城大学政府系助理教授

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【摘要】在过去十年中，格雷厄姆·艾利森的“修昔底德陷阱”已成为分析中美之间大国冲突前景的主要框架。围绕这种崛起的争议重新激发了一种思考权力相当对全球秩序影响的传统，这种传统以前在冷战期间蓬勃发展。然而，这种再度关注付出了高昂的代价。通过重构修昔底德陷阱产生的传统，这一传统我们称之为兴衰理论，本文展示了修昔底德陷阱作为一种分析框架的崛起如何掩盖了关于竞争大国的兴衰与冲突开始之间关系的批判性辩论。这些辩论使一些基本问题变得棘手，这些问题涉及如何概念化权力，要分析哪些类型的国家间关系，以及哪些因果机制在解释修正主义和冲突时最为重要。本文展示了修昔底德陷阱如何在很大程度上忽视了这些辩论，从而为分析人员提供了不那么精确的启发式方法来思考全球冲突的前景。我们开发了一种更加多元化的方法来应用兴衰理论，利用其多样化的观点和实质性的分歧来提供更细致和全面的分析。

【原文】Over the last decade, Graham Allison's ‘Thucydides trap’ has become a predominant frameworkfor

analysing the prospect of great power conflict between the United States and China. The controversysurrounding this rise to prominence has reinvigorated a tradition of thinking about the effects of power parityon global order that previously flourished during the Cold War. This renewed attention has neverthelesscome at a significant cost. By reconstructing the tradition from which the Thucydides trap emerges, atradition that we call rise-and-fall theory, this article demonstrates how the ascendance of the Thucydidestrap as a framework of analysis has obscured critical debates about the relationship between the rise andfall

of competing powers and the onset of conflict. These debates problematize fundamental questionsconcerning how to conceptualize power, what types of interstate relations are to be analysed, andwhichcausal mechanism(s) matter most in explaining revisionism and conflict. This article demonstrates howtheThucydides trap largely overlooks these debates, thereby providing analysts with less precise heuristics for

thinking about the prospect of global conflict than they might otherwise have. We develop a more pluralisticapproach to the application of rise-and-fall theory that makes use of its diverse perspectives and substantivedivergences to provide more nuanced and holistic analyses. 5. 相互合法化的尝试：联合国与中国的一带一路倡议（Mutual legitimation attempts: theUnited Nations and China's Belt and Road Initiative）

Sebastian Haug, 德国发展与可持续发展研究所高级研究员

【摘要】“一带一路”倡议已成为中国全球崛起的标志。虽然“一带一路”倡议已经成为一个专注于双边关系的全球平台，但中国政府也试图扩大“一带一路”倡议与国际组织，特别是和联合国之间的联系。然而，关于联合国与“一带一路”关系的现有证据表明，在最初的蜜月期，项目如雨后春笋般涌现；而在公众认可之后，参与度急剧下降。本文认为，关注治理者之间的合法性尝试有助于理解联合国与“一带一路”关系的起伏。根据公开的证据、内部文件和利益相关者访谈，报告揭示了合法性如何激发了双方投资联合国与“一带一路”关系的动机，以及西方的反对在之后如何导致联合国实体减少参与。从实证上讲，这篇文章为有关中国的全球角色、联合国不断发展的权力关系以及联合国成员国之间地缘政治驱动的主打倡议的激增的文献做出了贡献。从概念上讲，它通过更系统地参与关系合法性动态，阐述了关于世界政治中合法性的不断扩大的争论。关注片面或相互合法化的尝试提供了

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一种概念工具，用于分析全球治理者及其受众之间的互动如何展开，以及国际组织如何在成员日益两极分化的情况下试图（和失败）加强其复原力。

【原文】The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has become a hallmark of China's global rise. While the BRI hasunfolded as a global platform focused on bilateral relations, the Chinese government has also tried to expandlinks between the BRI and international organizations, notably the United Nations. Available evidence about

UN–BRI relations suggests, however, that an initial honeymoon phase with mushrooming projects andpublic endorsements was followed by a sharp decline in engagement. This article argues that a focus oninter-governor legitimation attempts helps understand the rise and fall of UN–BRI relations. Basedonpublicly available evidence, internal documentation and stakeholder interviews, it shows howlegitimationinformed motivations on both sides to invest in UN–BRI relations, and how western opposition subsequentlyled to UN entities reducing their engagement. Empirically, the article contributes to the literature on China'sglobal role, evolving power relations at the UN, and the proliferation of geopolitically motivated flagshipinitiatives across UN member states. Conceptually, it speaks to the expanding debate about legitimationinworld politics through a more systematic engagement with relational legitimation dynamics. Afocus onone-sided or mutual legitimation attempts offers a conceptual tool for analysing how interactions amongglobal governors and their audiences unfold, and how international organizations try (and fail) to strengthentheir resilience in light of an increasingly polarized membership. 6. 对国际和平实践及其人类和非人类成分的唯物主义重估（A materialist

reconsideration of international peace practice and its human and non-human

constituents）

Maximilian Lakitsch, 格拉茨大学法律基础研究所全球治理系博士后讲师

【摘要】国际社会在可持续减少全球武装冲突数量方面的发人深省的记录，以及非人类复杂性在气候危机时期的日益参与都表明，目前促进和平的方法过于狭隘和缺乏灵活性。到目前为止，政策制定者和研究人员对更灵活和适应性更强的和平实践的要求以及呼吁并没有导致相关的范式转变。为了促进这种实践的改变，本文提出了一种推测性的分析尝试，试图从概念上揭示以和平为目的与世界接触的新模式。它建立在巴鲁克·斯宾诺莎的唯物主义之上，并将和平描述为与政治共同体问题密切相关。继斯宾诺莎之后，本文重新考虑了政治共同体的想象，认为政治共同体的复杂性不断被人类和非人类行为者的偶然复杂性重新调整，从而超越了其正式边界的地理范围以及其跨越权力等级的认识范围。最后，本文将人类-非人类群体作为政治主体引入，他们能够发现和解释政治共同体的组成部分，从而维护和维持和平。

【原文】The international community's sobering track record of sustainably reducing the number of armedconflicts worldwide, as well as the increasing involvement of non-human complexities in times of climatecrisis suggest that current approaches to foster peace are too narrow and inflexible. So far, demands andcallsfor more flexible and adaptive peace practice made by policy-makers and researchers have not ledtoarelated paradigm shift. In order to contribute to such a change of practice, this article advances a speculativeanalytical attempt that seeks to conceptually uncover new modes of engaging with the world for the purpose

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of peace. It builds on Baruch Spinoza's materialism and describes peace as intimately interrelated withtheissue of political community. Following Spinoza, the article reconsiders the imaginary of political

community as something that is constantly being rearticulated by a contingent complexity of humanandnon-human actors, and thus transcends the geographic scope of its formal borders as well as its epistemicscope across power hierarchies. Finally, the article introduces the human–non-human multitude as political

subject that is able to detect and interpret the constituents of a political community, and therefore to maintainand sustain peace. 【编译：林志俊】【责任编辑：封欣怡】

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《外交政策分析》（Foreign Policy Analysis）Foreign Policy Analysis，Vol.20, No.3, July 2024

1. 安全化中的个体：解释美国总统（去）朝鲜安全化的选择（Individuals in Securitization:Explaining US Presidents’ Choice to (De)Securitize North Korea）Alexander Schotthöfer，爱丁堡大学社会和政治科学学院博士

【摘要】安全化和去安全化展示了威胁的建构（解构）如何导致冲突性或合作性的外交政策。然而，由于安全化理论侧重于集体，它无法告诉人们为什么领导人会选择安全化或去安全化。理解这种选择至关重要，因为（去）安全化过程可以指示可能的外交政策选择，从而影响冲突与合作的可能性。为了解释领导人的选择，本文借鉴了政治心理学，并通过解释两位美国总统对朝鲜（去）安全化的偏好来证明该方法的实用性。利用领导特质和行为代码分析（operational code analysis），本文表明心理变量影响了克林顿和布什的偏好，因为这些变量影响了他们对威胁的感知以及对冲突或合作行动的倾向。这些偏好产生了重大影响：克林顿的去安全化尝试改善了美朝关系，而布什的安全化尝试则事实上逆转了这一进展。

【原文】Securitization and desecuritization demonstrate how threat (de)constructions can lead to conflictual

or cooperative foreign policies. However, due to its focus on collectivities, securitization theory cannot tell

us why leaders choose either securitization or desecuritization. Understanding this choice is crucial because(de)securitization processes can prescribe possible foreign policy options and thus affect the likelihoodof

conflict and cooperation. To account for leaders’ choices, I draw on political psychology and demonstratethe utility of my approach through an explanation of two US presidents’ preferences for (de)securitizingNorth Korea. Using leadership trait and operational code analysis, I show that psychological variablesshaped Bill Clinton’s and George W. Bush’s preferences because they affected their threat perceptionandinclination toward conflictual or cooperative actions. These preferences had substantial consequences: WhileClinton’s desecuritization attempt led to improvements in US–North Korean relations, Bush’s effort toresecuritize North Korea effectively reversed this progress.

《外交政策分析》（Foreign Policy Analysis）杂志是由牛津大学出版社代表国际研究协会出版的季刊。该期刊旨在以比较或具体案例的方式研究外交政策决策的过程、效果、原因或结果。其 2021 年的影响因子为 2.646，在 96 种国际关系期刊中排名第 26。

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2. 反恐战争与胜利陷阱（The War on Terror and the Victory Trap）Jonny Hall，伦敦政治经济学院国际关系部研究员

【摘要】尽管反恐战争的结果模棱两可，但布什总统、奥巴马总统和特朗普总统在反恐战争中都使用了“胜利”和“失败”的语言。本文提出了“胜利陷阱”的概念来解释这一现象及其政治后果。一方面，战争“失败”会引起的选举后果导致总统们宣称战争“胜利”和最终“全胜”。另一方面，战略现实和公众不愿承担全胜的代价，导致决策者因无法取得与其言论相称的成果而受到批评。因此，虽然学术界对“输掉”和“赢下”战争的影响都有明确的认识，但本文首次探讨了这些双重动力在实践中是如何发挥作用的。本文在论证政策制定者往往在政治上“受困”的同时，指出了一系列关于有效的（外交）政策相关信息传递的学术研究局限，即指向模糊或准确。

【原文】Presidents Bush, Obama, and Trump have all used the language of “victory” and “defeat” intheWar on Terror despite its ambiguous outcomes. This paper develops the concept of a “victory trap”toexplain this phenomenon and its political consequences. On the one hand, the electoral consequences of “losing” wars lead presidents to make claims about “winning” and eventual “victory.” On the other hand, strategic realities and public reluctance to bear the costs of total victory result in policymakers facingcriticism for being unable to produce results proportionate to their rhetoric. As such, whilst scholarshipisclear on the effects of both “losing” and “winning” wars, this paper provides the first exploration of howthese dual dynamics play out in practice. In arguing that policymakers are oftentimes politically “trapped,”this paper suggests the limits of a range of scholarship on effective (foreign) policy-related messagingthat

points toward ambiguity or accuracy. 3. 政治解决与中国的海外行动：以埃塞俄比亚为例（Political Settlement andChina’sOverseas Operation: The Case of Ethiopia）

Ruixing Cao，杜伊斯堡-埃森大学的博士后研究员

Nele Noesselt，杜伊斯堡-埃森大学担任东亚、中国政治科学与政治主席

【摘要】政治解决分析（PSA）已成为学者们研究非洲国家社会经济差异的常用方法。然而，人们较少关注政治解决如何影响非洲国家与外国的互动。本文通过分析埃塞俄比亚与中国的互动来说明政治解决对外交政策的影响。作为中国在非洲最密切的经济伙伴之一，埃塞俄比亚长期存在种族分裂，且过去几年政局不稳，是本课题的理想案例。本文发现，埃塞俄比亚不断演变的政治解决方案在很大程度上影响了两国之间的官方交往。随着时间的推移，中国各方面也对埃塞俄比亚的政治动态以及在该国投资的相关风险有了更细致的了解。本文的研究提供了一个强调地方机构在影响中非关系方面的权力的新文献。

【 原 文 】 Political settlement analysis (PSA) has become a common approach scholars use tostudysocioeconomic differences among African countries. However, less attention has been given to howpolitical

settlement influences how African countries interact with their foreign counterparts. In this article, weillustrate the impact of political settlement on foreign policy by analyzing Ethiopia’s interactions withChina. As one of China’s closest economic partners in Africa, Ethiopia, with its long-standing ethnic cleavages and

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political instability in the last few years, represents an ideal case for this topic. We find that the evolvingpolitical settlement in Ethiopia has greatly influenced the official engagements between the two countries. Over time, various Chinese actors have also developed a more nuanced understanding of the political

dynamics of Ethiopia and the associated risks of investing in the country. Our study contributes toanemerging literature that emphasizes the power of local agencies in influencing China–Africa relations. 4. 战略只是部分幻象：“相对预见力”作为评估外交政策能力的客观标准（StrategyIsOnly Partly an Illusion: “Relative Foresight” as an Objective Standard for EvaluatingForeign Policy Competence）

Jeffrey A Friedman，达特茅斯学院副教授

Richard Zeckhauser，哈佛大学肯尼迪学院政治经济学教授

【摘要】外交决策者必须应对复杂性、不确定性和主观性。这些挑战提出了“战略是一种幻觉”的可能性，即没有可靠的方法来评估管理国际政治的技能。与此相反，本文的研究表明，研究人员可以使用一种称之为“相对预见力”的标准来客观地评估外交政策能力的一个关键组成部分。“相对预见力”的定义是，与基于类似信息的其他观点相比，决策者预测其选择后果的能力。相对预见能力的衡量无需依赖价值判断或主观概率。相比之下，其他衡量外交政策能力的常见框架，如将领导人的行为与理性行为者模型进行比较或评估程序合理性，几乎总是为合理的分歧留有余地。本文通过对奥巴马在阿富汗增兵和突袭本·拉登驻地行动中的决策进行案例研究，证明相对预见性为评估重大外交政策选择提供了有用的工具。本文的框架对外交政策分析的规范性、指导性和描述性方面的研究具有广泛的意义。

【原文】Foreign policymakers must grapple with complexity, uncertainty, and subjectivity. These challengesraise the possibility that “strategy is an illusion”: that there is no reliable method for assessing skill at

managing international politics. By contrast, we show that researchers can objectively evaluate a critical

component of foreign policy competence using a standard we call “relative foresight,” definedasdecision-makers’ ability to anticipate consequences of their choices as compared to alternative views basedon similar information. Relative foresight can be measured without relying on value judgments or subjectiveprobabilities. By contrast, other common frameworks for gauging foreign policy competence, suchascomparing leaders’ behavior to the rational actor model or assessing procedural rationality, almost alwaysleave room for reasonable disagreement. We demonstrate that relative foresight provides a useful tool for

evaluating major foreign policy choices through case studies of Barack Obama’s decisions regardingtheAfghan Surge and the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound. Our framework has broad implications for

research on normative, prescriptive, and descriptive dimensions of foreign policy analysis. 5. 最高阶的辩论：作为二阶角色竞争的英国脱欧公投（A Debate of the Highest Order:The Brexit Referendum as Second-Order Role Contestation）Benjamin Martill，爱丁堡大学欧洲研究所政治和国际关系高级讲师和副主任Adrian Rogstad，荷兰格罗宁根大学博士

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【摘要】2016 年英国脱欧公投再次引发了关于英国国际角色的辩论。然而利害关系错综复杂，因为脱欧与否都没有挑战英国的全球领导角色或其与非欧洲伙伴的紧密联系。因此，有关角色争论的研究很难解释英国脱欧的政治原因，而是将重点放在了非角色冲突上。本文认为，英国脱欧的辩论可以通过二阶角色争夺来理解，在二阶角色争夺中，角色兼容性本身就是政治分歧的主题，而角色理论的学术研究由于孤立地研究角色冲突和角色争夺而忽略了这一现象。本文将二阶概念区分为包容性概念和排他性概念，它们反映了脱欧运动和留欧运动各自对英国的欧洲角色及其与其他（共同）角色的关系所持的立场。本文的论证表明，角色冲突往往在政治上是有争议的，而角色争议的抽象程度要高于传统认识。

【原文】The 2016 Brexit referendum reignited debate on the UK’s international role. Yet the stakes werecomplex, since neither side challenged Britain’s global leadership role or its strong ties with non-Europeanpartners. Research on role contestation has thus struggled to account for the politics of Brexit, focusinginstead on non-role-based conflict. We argue that Brexit debates can be understood by referencetosecond-order role contestation where role compatibility itself is the subject of political disagreements, aphenomenon role theory scholarship has missed by studying role conflict and role contestation in isolation. We distinguish between inclusive and exclusive second-order conceptions, which capture the respectivepositions of the Leave and Remain campaigns regarding Britain’s European role and its relation toother

(shared) roles. Our argument shows that role conflict is often contested politically and that role contestationoperates at higher levels of abstraction than conventionally acknowledged. 6. 个人对经济方略态度的背景分析（Contextualizing Individual Attitudes onEconomicStatecraft）

Timothy M Peterson，美国亚利桑那州立大学政治与全球研究学院副教授

Susan M Miller，美国亚利桑那州立大学副教授

【摘要】美国公民在什么情况下更支持针对违反国际准则的海外经济干预？在什么情况下，他们更支持惩罚性制裁或积极诱导？人们对公民是否以及在多大程度上更支持制裁而非积极诱导，以及环境因素如何改变对每种因素的支持知之甚少。本文设计了一个联合调查实验，利用可比的反事实来衡量干预措施（即制裁或诱导）的支持率。本文将长期的不良行为与近期的冲击、不作为的不同后果以及政策建议者的不同专业水平进行了比较。本文还考虑了人们对目标国家的已有态度。在美国样本中，本文发现当政策建议涉及制裁而不是诱导时，会得到更多的支持，但对象国已有的亲和力有很大的调节作用。

【原文】When do US citizens express greater support for economic intervention abroad in responsetoviolations of international norms? Under what conditions do they express greater support for punitivesanctions or positive inducements? We know little about whether and to what extent citizens offer greater

support for sanctions compared to positive inducements and how contextual factors might alter support for

each. We design a conjoint survey experiment to gauge support for an intervention—i.e., sanctions or

inducements—using comparable counterfactuals. We compare long-enduring bad behavior to recent shocks, differently framed consequences of inaction, as well as varying expertise levels among policy proposal

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authors. We also consider preexisting attitudes about the target country. In a US sample, we find that policyproposals are supported to a greater extent when they involve sanctions as opposed to inducements, but that

preexisting affinity toward the country has a strong conditioning impact. 7. 角色理论、非胁迫性影响力和目标国的自主性：以哈萨克斯坦大使团和俄罗斯外交学院为例（Role Theory, Non-Coercive Influence, and the Agency of Target States: TheCase of Kazakhstan’s Ambassadorial Corps and the Russian Diplomatic Academy）John C Stanko，印第安纳大学第一代政治学博士候选人

【摘要】本文将角色理论应用于软实力研究，评估国家选择的国际角色与易受非胁迫性影响之间的关系，从而为外交政策分析做出贡献。本文认为，如果一个国家所扮演的角色涉及与各种具有影响力国家的承诺参与，那么精英们就会从不同的合作伙伴那里获得利益，从而在不违反自主权最大化原则的情况下遵守如俄罗斯外交学院（RDA）的软实力基准。本文采用了混合方法，将logistic 回归作为哈萨克斯坦定性案例研究的一部分。利用哈萨克斯坦大使自 1992 年以来的原始数据集，本文发现外交政策的作用比传统的安全论点更能解释接受过俄罗斯外交学院培训的外交官在哈萨克斯坦大使队伍中的持续存在。这一结果表明，通过角色理论的视角审视软实力，强调潜在影响对象的作用，是具有前景的。

【原文】This article contributes to foreign policy analysis by applying role theory to the study of soft power, evaluating the relationship between a state’s chosen international role(s) and susceptibility to non-coerciveinfluence. I argue that in countries where said role involves committed engagement with varied power poles, elites derive benefits from their various partners and thus abide soft power bases such as the RussianDiplomatic Academy (RDA) without violating the principle of autonomy maximization. I utilize a mixedmethods approach, using logistic regression as part of a qualitative case study of Kazakhstan. Drawingonanoriginal dataset of Kazakhstani ambassadors since 1992, I find that foreign policy role better explains thecontinued presence of RDA-trained diplomats within the Kazakhstani ambassadorial corps than traditional

security arguments. This outcome demonstrates the promise of examining soft power through the lens of roletheory, with an emphasis on the agency of potential targets of influence. 【编译：宋欣蔚】【责任编辑：封欣怡】

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《华盛顿季刊》（The Washington Quarterly）The Washington Quarterly，Vol. 47, No. 2, 2024

1. 美国核政策的下一章（The Next Chapter in US Nuclear Policy）Brad Roberts，劳伦斯利弗莫尔国家实验室全球安全研究中心主任，曾任美国国防部核与导弹防御政策副助理部长

【摘要】三十年前，国际体系的重大变化推动了美国核政策和核态势的重大变革。冷战结束和苏联解体结束了军备竞赛，开创了一个注重降低武器作用和数量的时代。如今，国际体系再次经历剧变，这很可能对美国的核政策和态势产生重大影响。美国核政策的一个篇章即将结束，而另一个篇章即将开始，这将带来新的挑战和政策选择。遗憾的是，20 世纪 90 年代有充分的理由庆祝，而今天却没有。现在摆在我们面前的政策选择并不受欢迎，许多人对此表示抵制。但是，如果不能适应新的环境，后果可能会很严重。

【原文】Three decades ago, major changes in the international system drove major changes in USnuclear

policy and posture. The end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union brought an end to the armsrace and ushered in an era focused on reducing the role and number of weapons. Today, the international

system is again passing through a period of dramatic change, one likely to have a significant impact onUSnuclear policy and posture. One chapter in US nuclear policy is now ending as another begins, bringingnewchallenges and policy choices. Alas, whereas there was good cause for celebration in the 1990s, todaythereis not. The policy choices now in front of us are unwelcome and resisted by many. But the consequences of

failing to adapt to the new context would likely be severe. 2. 睁大双眼：战略精英对韩国核选择的看法（Eyes Wide Open: Strategic Elite ViewsofSouth Korea’s Nuclear Options）

Victor D. Cha，乔治城大学政府和国际事务特聘教授

《华盛顿季刊》（The Washington Quarterly）由乔治·华盛顿 大 学 的 埃 利 奥 特 国 际 事 务 学 院 主 办 ， 并 由 Taylor &

Francis 出版，是一本全球安全事务期刊，提供关于全球战略变化、趋势和关系及其公共政策影响的不同观点。其撰稿人来自全球，反映了不同的政治、地区和专业观点。其2021 年的影响因子为 2.013，在 96 种国际关系期刊中排名第 47。

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【摘要】2023 年 1 月 11 日，韩国总统尹锡悦做出了这样的评价：“当然，如果问题变得更加严重，大韩民国（ROK）可以在这里部署战术核武器，或者我们也可以获得自己的核武器。如果出现这种情况，利用我们的科学技术，未来在短时间内（研制）一枚自己的核武器也不会花太长时间。”这些话是韩国国家元首首次公开谈论核武器化问题，打破了美韩同盟长期以来禁止讨论这一安全选项的禁忌。近半个世纪前，韩国曾推行秘密核计划，但被美国禁止。这一次，尹锡悦的讲话正值人们纷纷猜测历史可能面临重演。

【原文】On January 11, 2023, President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea offered this assessment: “Of course, if problems become more serious, the Republic of Korea (ROK) could deploy tactical nuclear weapons here, or we could acquire our own nuke as well. If that happens, it would not take long to [develop] onefor

ourselves in a short period of time using our science and technology in the future.” These words werethefirst ever public remarks by a South Korean head of state on nuclear weaponization, breaking longstandingtaboos in the US-ROK alliance against discussing this security option. Nearly half a century ago, SouthKorea pursued a covert nuclear program, which the United States shut down. This time, Yoon’s remarkscame amid rampant speculation that history might repeat itself. 3. 关于定点清除和战争（On Targeted Killing and Warfare）Kenneth M. Pollack，美国企业研究所高级研究员

Daniel L. Byman，乔治城大学政府系教授和安全研究项目主任

【摘要】不久的某一天，你很可能会听说，美国在也门某地暗杀了胡塞武装领导人，或杀死了伊朗抵抗轴心的另一位主要人物。当然，美国官员不会称其为暗杀。这个词有过深的含义。过去，美国政府的律师们曾不厌其烦地声明，美国对外国恐怖分子和敌方指挥官的杀戮不符合这一定义。当这种情况发生时，华盛顿会将其称为“定点清除”，这是一种委婉的说法，听起来不那么邪恶。但实际上并非如此。不同的政府都发现，定点清除是对付棘手对手的一种非常有用的方法。911 事件后，对那些未知其地址，也没有他们可能关心的任何其他目标的恐怖分子采取了这一策略。威慑恐怖分子似乎是不可能的，但可以选择简单地消灭他们，防止他们继续杀人。信息时代的新技术使暗杀方法变得更加巧妙——使用地狱火导弹和飞行银弹弹头，从更远的距离在更广泛的情况下进行暗杀。这使得定点清除似乎成为解决反恐战争棘手挑战的灵丹妙药。

【原文】Someday soon, you are likely to hear that the United States has assassinated a Houthi leader

somewhere in Yemen or killed another leading figure in Iran’s Axis of Resistance. US officials won’t call it

an assassination, of course. That’s too loaded a term. In the past, US government lawyers have gone togreat

pains to declare that US killings of foreign terrorists and enemy commanders did not fit that definition. When it happens, Washington will instead term it a “targeted killing,” the preferred euphemism, whichsounds like something less sinister. In practice, it isn’t. Different administrations have found that targetedkillings were a wonderfully useful way of going after difficult adversaries. After 9/11, this tack was takenwith terrorists who had no known permanent address, nor anything else they might care about that couldbetargeted. Deterring terrorists seemed impossible, but we could simply eliminate themto keep themfromfurther killing. The new technology of the information age enabled ever more ingenious methods of

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assassination-with Hellfire missiles and flying Ginsu warheads, from longer distances, in a wider rangeof

circumstances. It made targeted killing a seeming panacea for the vexing challenges of the War on Terror. 4. 印度、俄罗斯和乌克兰危机（India, Russia and the Ukraine Crisis）Sumit Ganguly，印第安纳大学政治学教授

【摘要】作为一个后殖民地国家，印度长期以来一直竭力维护其在本地区和世界上的主权及影响力。事实上，在 1971 年第三次印巴战争期间，印度是经过一番内部辩论后才决定对东巴基斯坦进行干预的，因为这需要侵犯邻国巴基斯坦的主权。毫不奇怪，印度对于全心全意地接受联合国的“保护责任”（R2P）理论也相当谨慎，因为这可能会破坏印度对国家主权原则的承诺。这种反对的背后是一种难以言表的恐惧：由于印度在保护人权方面的诸多失误，特别是在处理国内叛乱时，“保护责任”在某些时候可能会适用于印度自身。

【原文】As a post-colonial state, India has long zealously guarded is sovereignty, both in the regionandinthe world. Indeed, it was only after much internal debate that it decided to intervene in East Pakistanduringthe 1971 crisis, as this required violating the sovereignty of its neighbor, Pakistan. Not surprisingly, it hasalso been quite circumspect about wholeheartedly embracing the UN’s doctrine of the “responsibilitytoprotect” (R2P) on the grounds that that it could undermine India’s devotion to the principle of statesovereignty. Underlying this opposition is an unspoken fear: that the R2P could at some point be appliedtoIndia itself, thanks to its many lapses in protecting human rights, especially when dealing with domesticinsurgencies. 5. 美国的保护主义和与中国的竞争（US Protectionism and Competition withChina）Dong Jung Kim，高丽大学国际研究系副教授

【摘要】冷战结束后，华盛顿倡导经济开放、减少政府干预和私有化，从而加速了超级全球化，而现在白宫和国会则大肆宣扬公平贸易而非自由贸易。美国经济总体取向中“美国优先”的共识已转化为具体措施，不仅包括特朗普政府恢复《购买美国货法案》，还包括拜登政府的对内投资政策——即《美国救援计划法案》、《基础设施投资与就业法案》、《芯片与科学法案》和《通胀削减法案》，以及对包括电动汽车、电池、太阳能电池和医疗产品在内的一系列中国进口产品征收关税。如果保护主义可以被广义地定义为实施帮助国内产业对抗外国竞争对手的政策，那么今天的美国已经明显转向了保护主义。

【原文】A profound change is underway in US foreign economic policy. Whereas after the ColdWar, Washington advocated economic openness, minimal governmental intervention, and privatization-therebyaccelerating hyper-globalization-the White House and Congress now trumpet fair trade over free trade. Theconsensus on “America First” in overall US economic orientation has translated into tangible measures, not

only the reinstatement of the Buy American Act during the Trump administration but also the Bidenadministration’s inward investment policies - namely the American Rescue Plan Act, the InfrastructureInvestment and Jobs Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act-and tariffs against an

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array of Chinese imports including electric vehicles, batteries, solar cells, and medical products. If

protectionism can be broadly defined as the implementation of policies to help domestic industries against

foreign competitors, then the United States today has taken a decidedly protectionist turn. 6. 气候变化可能破坏中俄关系（Climate Change Could Rupture Sino-RussianRelations）Matthew F. Calabria，华盛顿大学埃利奥特国际事务学院安全政策研究项目兼职教授，美国能源部的网络安全顾问

William Morrissey，约翰·霍普金斯大学保罗·尼采高级国际研究学院（SAIS）博士【摘要】1676 年开始，沙俄沿着阿穆尔河（黑龙江）及其支流修建了一系列防御工事。中国清政府感受到了威胁，于是在河对岸的黑龙江省集结了一支一万人的军队，这为沙俄和中国在接下来的岁月里发生的第一次冲突埋下了伏笔，也预示着此后数百年的边境冲突和敌意。1683 年，康熙帝要求俄国人放弃前哨站，但没有得到回应，于是下令军队将他们赶出阿穆尔河。清军将俄军偏远的阿尔巴津前哨夷为平地后，幸免的俄军士兵返回并重建了阿尔巴津，这反过来又激怒了康熙帝，清军对沙俄驻点发动了长达数月的残酷围攻战。阿尔巴津的守军饱受战争和坏血病的摧残，如果不是中俄两国通过巧妙的外交手段逐步解除围困，他们很可能已经被迫投降。

【原文】Beginning in 1676, sarist Russia constructed a series of fortifications along the Amur River anditstributaries in a backcountry stretch of what was then Manchuria. Sensing a dire threat, the Chinese QingDynasty’s Manchu government concentrated a 10,000-man army on the opposite bank of the river in what isnow Heilongjiang Province, setting the stage for the first clash between Russia and dynastic China intheyears to follow and presaging border conflicts and centuries of enmity thereafter. In 1683, the ChineseEmperor Kangxi, receiving no response to peace terms that requested the Russians abandon the outposts, ordered his forces to dislodge them from the Amur. After Kangxi’s soldiers razed the remote Russianoutpost of Albazin to the ground, Russian soldiers fortunate enough to have been spared the Kangxi forces’ cannon fire returned and rebuilt Albazin, which in turn incited Kangxi to prosecute a brutal, months-longsiege warfare on the garrison. Devastated by war and scurvy, the Albazin holdouts would most probablyhave been forced to surrender had wily Sino-Russian diplomacy not lifted the siege over time. 7. “武装建政”能够在乌克兰、加沙或台湾地区取得成功吗？（Can ArmedStatebuilding Succeed in Ukraine, Gaza or Taiwan?）

Adam Wunische，艾略特国际事务学院高级分析师和研究员

【摘要】在过去 20 年里，世界陷入了一个高度不确定和混乱的时期。美国参与或考虑参与的冲突不胜枚举，其中包括海地、乌克兰、加沙和约旦河西岸、也门和曼德海峡、缅甸、台湾问题和与伊朗日益紧张的关系，以及与拉美缉毒人员的冲突等等。在这一时期，像美国这样的国家很想动用海外军事力量来塑造对自己有利的冲突结果。然而，随着这些行动的进行，各国往往意识到这只是暂时的、脆弱的权宜之计。例如，西方向乌克兰运送援助物资的时间只推迟了几个月，这使得俄罗斯越来越多地利用乌克兰的短缺，在前线取得进展。

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【原文】Over at least the last 20 years, the world has plunged into a period of heightened uncertaintyandchaos. The long list of conflicts in which the US has played—or has considered playing—a part includesHaiti, Ukraine, Gaza and the West Bank, Yemen and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, Myanmar, rising tensionsover Taiwan and with Iran, as well as with narco-gangs in Latin America, to name only a few. Duringsuchperiods, states like the US are tempted to apply military force abroad to shape the outcomes of theseconflicts in their favor. As these operations go on, however, states often realize that these are temporaryandfragile stopgaps. For example, delaying Western aid shipments to Ukraine by only a couple of monthsallowed Russia to increasingly take advantage of Ukrainian shortages and make advances alongthefrontline. 8. 如何结束军事干预（How to End a Military Intervention）David Kampf，塔夫茨大学弗莱彻学院博士生

【摘要】这是一场失败战争的失败结局。当美国争先恐后地将最后一批美国人撤离阿富汗时，现场一片混乱。退役军人、前官员、记者和非营利组织雇员疯狂地试图协调曾帮助过美国战争和建国努力的阿富汗同事、翻译、倡导者和朋友的安全撤离。正如 1975 年匆忙撤离西贡标志着失败的越南战争的结束一样，2021 年在喀布尔的绝望结局也为美国在阿富汗的存在画上了灰暗的句号。尽管撤军过程一团糟，但计划和执行不力并不是美国未能在喀布尔建立稳定、民主和友好政府并阻止塔利班卷土重来的原因。早在美国决定撤军之前，战争就已经输了，即使经过多年的战斗，美国仍然不知道何时或如何结束外国干预。

【原文】It was a failed ending to a failed war. Chaos and confusion reigned as the United States scrambledto get the last Americans out of Afghanistan. Former troops, ex-officials, journalists and non-profit

employees frantically tried to coordinate the safe evacuations of Afghan colleagues, translators, advocatesand friends who had helped the US war and nation-building efforts. Just as the hasty exit fromSaigonin1975 marked the end of a failed war in Vietnam, the desperate 2021 endgame in Kabul served as a grimcodato America's presence in Afghanistan. But despite the messy withdrawal, the poorly planned and executedexit was not the reason the United States failed to install a stable, democratic and friendly government inKabul and prevent the Taliban's return. The war was lost long before the United States decided to leave, andeven after years of fighting, it still did not know when or how to end a foreign intervention. 9. 保障乌克兰长期安全：加入北约的替代方案（Backstopping Ukraine’s Long-TermSecurity: An Alternative to NATO Membership）

Lise Morjé Howard，乔治城大学终身教授

Michael O’Hanlon，布鲁金斯学会高级研究员兼外交政策研究主任

【摘要】如今，乌克兰在战场上面临着严峻的挑战；5 月中旬，普京宣布俄罗斯军队“每天都在按计划改善各条战线上的阵地”。俄罗斯的战时经济正在蓄势待发，而西方的决心仍不明朗。乌克兰人将

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继续进行激烈的战斗，但俄罗斯的战争机器正在付出代价。因此，乌克兰的首要任务是保卫自己及其领土和人民。

【原文】Ukraine faces serious immediate challenges on the battlefield today; in-mid May, Putin declaredthat Russian forces are \"improving their positions each day, on all fronts, according to plan.\" The Russianwartime economy is gathering steam while Western resolve remains uncertain. Ukrainians will continuetofight fiercely, but Russia’s war machine is taking its toll. Thus, Ukraine's first order of business is to defenditself and its territory and people. 【编译：邹梓轩周杼樾】【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

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《亚太国际关系》（International Relations of the Asia-Pacific）International Relations of the Asia-Pacific，Vol. 24, No. 2,2024

1. 评估日本的防务合作协议及其变革潜力：升级与澳大利亚和英国的战略伙伴关系（Evaluating Japan’s defense cooperation agreements and their transformative potential:upgrading strategic partnerships with Australia and the UK）Nanae Baldauff ，比利时布鲁日联合国大学地区比较研究副研究员，日本庆应义塾大学湘南藤泽校区高级研究员

Yee-Kuang Heng，东京大学公共政策研究生院国际安全教授

【摘要】近年来，日本的防卫合作协定（DCA）不断增多。尽管日本面临严峻的安全环境，但防卫合作协定并没有将正式的军事同盟扩大到唯一的盟友美国之外，而是成为日本加强与不同伙伴的双边和多边防卫关系的重要工具。我们该如何理解日本在建立地区防卫协定方面日益增长的积极性？然而，目前还没有一个框架来系统地评估这些发展中战略伙伴关系，也没有对这些发展中战略伙伴关系在改变日本与志同道合国家的伙伴关系方面的效用的详细评估。本文从几个关键绩效指标出发，提出了一个分析矩阵，并将其应用于评估日本如何利用发展中战略伙伴关系来改变其与澳大利亚和英国这两个关键战略伙伴的防务关系。

【原文】Japan’s defense cooperation agreements (DCAs) have been proliferating in recent years. DespiteJapan’s harsh security environment, rather than expanding formal military alliances beyond its sole USally, DCAs have emerged as a crucial instrument deployed by Japan to strengthen bilateral and minilateral

defense relations with various partners. How do we make sense of Japan’s growing activismin forgingDCAs? Yet, there does not currently exist a framework to systematically evaluate these DCAs, nor is therea《亚太国际关系》是在该领域出版最佳原创研究的重要国际期刊。该刊于 2001 年创刊，每年一月、五月和九月共出版三期。该刊目标有二：为亚太地区的读者带来国际关系领域杰出的综合学术研究，和为研究该地区国际关系的学者提供专门的发表渠道。该刊的发行涵盖了日本国际关系协会（Japan Association of International Relations）的所有成员，从而保证了该地区的读者数量。《亚太国际关系》的内容侧重于：亚太地区国家间的关系；亚太地区与世界其他地区的关系；与亚太一国或多国有关的国际关系一般性问题和理论。

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detailed assessment of the utility of these DCAs in transforming Japan’s partnerships with like-mindedstates. This article proposes an analytical matrix derived from several key performance indicators and applies it toevaluate how Japan’s use of DCAs has transformed its defense relationships with two key strategic partners, Australia and the UK. 2. 认真对待想法和言辞：澜沧江-湄公河合作制度化的解释（Taking ideas andwordsseriously: explaining the institutionalization of the Lancang-Mekong cooperation）龚雪，新加坡南洋理工大学拉惹勒南国际关系学院中国项目助理教授

李明江 ，新加坡南洋理工大学拉惹勒南国际关系学院副教授兼教务长，国际关系讲座教授【摘要】本文探讨了中国的观念性权力和话语权在塑造目标国的利益观念和决定新机构的形成方面所起的作用。本文以澜沧江-湄公河合作（LMC）为案例，阐述了中国如何构建制度化的理念，以及这一理念在与伙伴国的互动中是如何被提出、阐述、讨论和接受的。通过对700 多份有关澜湄合作机制的中国官方文字进行收集和编码，以及大量的访谈，本文分析了中国政府如何利用理念和话语来争取湄公河地区国家对建立该机制的支持。本文论证了中国的观念性权力和话语权有助于产生三种结果：否认偏好、培养偏好和增强偏好。这种中国力量通过三种方式使湄公河国家的利益认知与中国的期望相一致：将水安全问题转化为发展问题，通过策略性说服使其接受中国的建议，以及对替代政策进行限制。

【原文】This article explores the role of China’s ideational and discursive power in shaping the interest

perceptions of target states and in determining the formation of a new institution. UsingtheLancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) as a case study, this article illustrates how China framed the ideaof

institutionalization, and how such idea was proposed, articulated, deliberated, and accepted intheinteractions with partner countries. Relying on a collection and coding of over 700 Chinese official texts onthe LMC and extensive interviews, we analyze how the Chinese authorities have used ideas and discoursesto garner support from states in the Mekong region for the establishment of the institution. This articledemonstrates that China’s ideational and discursive power helps generate three outcomes: preferencedenying, preference cultivating, and preference empowering. Such Chinese power has helped align Mekongcountries’ interest perceptions with China’s expectations in three ways: transforming water securityintodevelopmental issues, accepting Chinese proposals through tactical persuasion, and constraining alternativepolicies. 3. 重新审视芦田备忘录：紧急派驻计划与警察改革之间的关系（ReconsideringtheAshida memorandum: the relations between the emergency stationing plan andpolicereform）

Goro Fujita，早稻田大学政治经济学院助理教授

【摘要】本文探讨了太平洋战争后日本安全政策的起源。在占领期间，日本政府决定在《日本和平条约》签订后继续保留驻日美军。为了解释其背后的原因，现有研究强调了日本政府的外部安全考虑。

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本文则强调日本外交政策与国内政策之间的相互作用，认为日本政府的决定受到了国内安全考量的强烈影响，从而对现有研究提出了挑战。随着 1947 年 9 月《芦田备忘录》的制定以及关于盟军司令部（GHQ）将允许强化警察部队的期望，日本外相芦田仁及其幕僚试图将驻日美军的驻扎限制在国家紧急状态下。然而，与这种期望相反，总司令部的警察改革大大削弱了日本的国内安全保障能力，迫使东京依靠美军来应对国内的共产主义威胁。

【原文】This article explores the origins of Japan’s security policy after the Asia-Pacific War. Duringtheoccupation, the Japanese government decided on the maintenance of US forces in the country after theJapanese Peace Treaty. To explain the rationale behind this, existing studies emphasize the Japanesegovernment’s external security calculations. Highlighting the interaction between Japanese foreignanddomestic policies, this article challenges this conventional claim by arguing that internal securitycalculations strongly influenced the Japanese government’s decision. With the creation of the Ashidamemorandum in September 1947 and the expectation that the General Headquarters (GHQ) would allowfor

stronger police forces, Japanese Foreign Minister Ashida Hitoshi and his staff sought to restrict thestationing of US forces in Japan only to national emergencies. As opposed to such expectation, however, GHQ’s police reform significantly weakened Japan’s internal security capabilities, forcing Tokyo to dependon US forces for dealing with internal communist threats. 4. 分散经济风险：日本对中国的经济风险对冲（Diversifying economic risks: Japan’seconomic hedging toward China）

Lluc Vidal López，加泰罗尼亚大学（UOC）政治与国际关系教授

Àngels Pelegrín Solé，公共经济系应用经济学副教授

Ivan Gonzalez-Pujol ，马德里自治大学东亚研究中心日本经济与社会助理教授【摘要】国际关系传统上认为，制衡或追随是国家在面对威胁现状的崛起大国时采取的两种主要战略。然而，最近的学术讨论突出强调了对冲策略的出现，它是国家在面对意图模糊的崛起大国时，尤其是在利害关系重大时采取的一种中间策略。经济对冲是这一战略的关键要素，因为它允许国家在通过贸易和投资将依赖风险降至最低的同时，实现经济利益最大化。本文提出了一个基于库克模型（Kuik’smodel）的分析框架，其重点是贸易和投资中的经济多样化概念。本文通过分析安倍政府的多元化举措来检验其有效性，本文核心论点是，日本的多元化努力旨在通过与中国的贸易和投资来降低经济风险，避免在特定领域的过度依赖。

【 原 文 】 International Relations has traditionally identified balancing and bandwagoning as the twopredominant strategies adopted by states in response to a rising power that threatens the status quo. However, recent academic debates have highlighted the emergence of hedging as a middle-ground approach adoptedby states facing a rising power with ambiguous intentions, particularly when the stakes are high. Economichedging forms a critical element of this strategy, as it allows states to maximize economic benefits whileminimizing the risks of dependency through trade and investment. We present an analytical frameworkbased on Kuik’s model, which focuses on the concept of economic diversification in trade and investment. We test its validity through an analysis of the diversification initiatives of the Abe administration andour

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central argument is that Japan’s diversification efforts are aimed at reducing economic risks and avoidingexcessive dependency in specific sectors through trade and investment with China. 【编译：王诗涵马欣茹】【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

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《当代亚洲》（Journal of Contemporary Asia）Journal of Contemporary Asia，Vol. 54, No. 4, 2024

1. 知识政治与社会现金转移：印度尼西亚扶贫制度的构成效应（The Politics of

Knowledge and Social Cash Transfers: The Constitutive Effects of an Anti-PovertyRegime in Indonesia）

John McCarthy，克劳福德公共政策学院副教授

Gerben Nooteboom，阿姆斯特丹大学人类学系副教授

Shaummil Hadi，印度尼西亚阿尔穆斯林大学研究与社区服务学院

Pande Made Kutanegara，加札马达大学人文学院人类学系讲师

Nulwita Muliati，印度尼西亚马利库萨莱大学

【摘要】近几十年来，促进社会现金转移的政策逐渐全球化，被作为减贫的重要手段。在各种方法中，世界银行推广的有条件现金转移模式（CCT）在一些国家占据了话语主导地位，因为在这些国家，这一战略及其实施技术模式似乎比其他方案更具吸引力。虽然拉丁美洲的研究已经对CCT 项目进行了评估，并对其所代表的发展政治进行了思考，但在亚洲农村社会，研究人员尚未探索CCT认识和衡量贫困的方式所产生的构成性影响。本文探讨了印度尼西亚农村地区的 CCT 知识政治的后果。本文认为，CCT 的认识和衡量方式具有自相矛盾的效果。该计划向数百万贫困家庭直接付款，产生了有据可查的包容和进步模式。然而，CCT 的知识实践涉及简化，产生了严重的目标错误，引发了国家行为者、地方领导人和社区之间永无休止的修复过程。这种度量化的知识体系使分配的政治问题非政治化。它掩盖了认识和解决贫困问题的其他方法，产生了一种与既定的社区包容逻辑有些相悖的权利秩序，同时引发了地方的分配政治。

【原文】Recent decades have witnessed the globalisation of policies promoting social cash transfers asacritical instrument for poverty reduction. Among various approaches, the Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT)

model promoted by the World Bank has gained discursive dominance in countries where this strategy, andits technical model for implementation, appear more attractive than competing alternatives. While researchhas evaluated CCT programmes and considered the politics of development that they represent inLatin《当代亚洲》（Journal of Contemporary Asia）是一份1970

年起出版的学术期刊。该期刊每年出版 4 次，内容涵盖亚洲的经济、政治和社会发展。目前，期刊的主编为其创办人 Peter Limqueco 以及 Kevin Hewison。据 2020 年的期刊引证报告，《当代亚洲》的影响因子为 3.261。

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America, researchers are yet to explore the constitutive effects of CCT ways of knowing and measuringpoverty in the societies of rural Asia. This paper explores the consequences of CCT knowledge politics inrural Indonesia. It argues that CCT practices of knowing and measuring have paradoxical effects. Theprogramme makes direct payments to millions of impoverished households, producing well-documentedpatterns of inclusion and advancement. Yet, CCT knowledge practices involve simplifications and generatesignificant mis-targeting, eliciting a never-ending repair process among state actors, local leaders, andcommunities. This metricised knowledge system depoliticises political questions of distribution. It concealsalternative ways of knowing and addressing poverty, producing an order of entitlements somewhat at oddswith established community logics of inclusion, while provoking a local politics of distribution. 2. 为抵抗群众抗议而挑起民众阻挠：缅甸军方的反动员战略（Provoking CivilianDisruption against Popular Protests: The Myanmar Military’s Counter-MobilisationStrategies）

Mai Van Tran，哥本哈根大学北欧亚洲研究所和政治学系博士后研究员

【摘要】虽然群众性争议运动面临着一系列由国家主导的反动员策略，但现有研究主要集中在安全部队和暴力承包商的镇压方面。人们对政府在公众中采取更具欺骗性的策略（包括将抗议者贴上罪犯标签和制造广泛的暴力犯罪）来激起反抗议者敌意的影响了解甚少。本文将缅甸军政府统治下发生的两起类似的民众抗议活动并列分析：1988 年的“四-八起义”和 2007 年的“袈裟革命”，从而探讨这两种策略的有效性。分析利用了一个新颖的定性数据集，该数据集包括来自国家媒体、权威二手资料来源的内容，以及目击或参与抗议活动的 109 名平民的原始访谈和书面陈述。研究发现，虽然反对抗议者的叙事没有效果，但大规模针对平民的犯罪活动的策划加剧了平民对陌生人的不信任，导致成年男性阻挠陌生活动分子的抗议活动。这一发现既强调了培养群体间信任对于发展基础广泛的争议阵线的关键作用，也强调了当一个政权坚定地致力于镇压异见时面对的具有挑战性的条件。【原文】While mass contentious movements face a wide range of state-led counter-mobilisation strategies, existing studies have mainly focused on repression by the security forces and violence contractors. Muchless is understood about the impact of governments’ more deceptive strategies to provoke anti-protester

hostility among the public, including labelling protesters as criminals and engineering widespread violent

crimes. This article examines the effectiveness of these two types of strategy by juxtaposing two similar

cases of popular protests under military-ruled Myanmar: the 1988 Four-eight Uprising and 2007 SaffronRevolution. The analysis leverages a novel qualitative dataset consisting of content fromstate media, authoritative secondary sources, as well as original interviews and written accounts by 109 civilians whowitnessed or participated in the protest events. It is found that while anti-protester narratives were ineffective, orchestration of criminal activities targeting civilians on a large scale fuelled civilian distrust towardstrangers, leading adult men to disrupt protest events by unfamiliar activists. This finding underscores boththe crucial role of nurturing inter-group trust in order to grow a broad-based contentious front as well as thechallenging conditions for doing so when a regime is steadfastly committed to crushing dissent.

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3. 越南的反对派劳工运动（Dissident Labour Activism in Vietnam）Anh-Susann Pham Thi，土耳其安卡拉比尔肯特大学政治学与公共管理系研究员【摘要】越南的学者们研究了不同形式的劳工反抗，如非法罢工、请愿、投诉、停工和抵制，工人们通过这些形式要求提高工资和养老金，改善整体工作条件，落实工人权利。与工作场所内外的劳工反抗活动相比，反对派劳工活动家受到的国家镇压要严厉得多，而这也是本文关注的重点。本文的问题是：是什么使得反对派劳工活动家对国家构成（实际或感知的）威胁？一种常见且广为接受的解释是异见人士的诉求性质，包括独立工会、民主化和政权更迭。本文深入探讨后发现，反对派劳工活动家推动了新兴认识论的第三空间，他们能够重振有关劳工权利的隐藏知识，重新唤起被压抑的独立工会理念，使对现状的批判与对另一种未来的想象并存，这些因素共同威胁着越南共产党的政治合法性，进而威胁着资本的利用。

【原文】Scholars of Vietnam have studied different forms of labour resistance such as wildcat strikes, petitions, complaints, work stoppages, and boycotts, with which workers demand higher wages and pensions, overall better working conditions, and the implementation of workers’ rights. This article pays attentiontothe small, yet not negligible group of dissident labour activists, who are subjected to much harsher staterepression compared to labour resistance in and around the workplace. This article asks: What makesdissident labour activism a (real or perceived) threat to the state? A common and widely acceptedexplanation refers to the nature of the demands of dissidents, which includes independent trade unions, democratisation, and regime change. This article digs deeper and finds that dissident labour activists functionas agents of an emerging epistemological third space, which permits the revitalisation of hidden knowledgesabout labour rights, the reclamation of the silenced idea of independent trade unions and the co-existenceof

critique of the status quo and imagination of an alternative future, which together threaten to endanger theCommunist Party of Vietnam’s political legitimacy and, by implication, capital utilisation. 4. 完美的借口：印度和菲律宾民粹专制主义夺取大流行病应急权力（Perfect Pretext:Populist Authoritarian Seizure of Pandemic Emergency Powers in India andthePhilippines）

Leonora C. Angeles，不列颠哥伦比亚大学社区与区域规划学院副教授

Wajiha Mehdi，不列颠哥伦比亚大学性别、种族、性和社会正义研究所博士生【摘要】本文运用法兰克福学派的批判理论，研究了亚洲民粹主义专制政权如何利用COVID-19大流行的背景来维护政权和巩固权力的政治结果。这次疫情揭示了印度与菲律宾之间有趣的相似之处，凸显了三种相互关联的政治经济发展模式，使得国家对 COVID-19 的反应具有相似性。首先，通过新旧统治技术推行的新自由主义经济政策如何伴随着惊人的经济增长率，却没有解决结构性的社会经济不平等问题。其次，在受限制的新自由主义民主政体下，政治承诺失败、寻租机会增加和腐败等并行的先决条件如何催生了民粹主义专制领导人。第三，新自由主义和民粹专制主义的结合如何制约了政府应对大流行病的冲突和竞争，其一方面加强了权力巩固和政权维护，另一方面又引发了政治竞争。民粹专制主义通过大众传媒、异质父权制家庭和教育系统传播的意识形态统治这三个重要的关联要素，在大流行病期间持续存在。

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【原文】Using Frankfurt School Critical Theory, we examine the political outcomes of howAsian populist

authoritarian regimes seized the COVID-19 pandemic context for regime maintenance and power

consolidation. The pandemic revealed interesting India-Philippines parallels highlighting threeinter-connected political-economic development patterns contextualising analogous state responses toCOVID-19. First, how neo-liberal economic policies pursued through old and newtechnologies of

domination accompanied phenomenal economic growth rates without addressing structural socio-economicinequalities. Second, how parallel predisposing conditions of failed political promises, increasedrent-seeking opportunities, and corruption under constricted neo-liberal democracies, gave rise to populist

authoritarian leaders. Third, how combined neo-liberalism and populist authoritarianismconditionedconflictual and contested government responses to the pandemic, bolstering power consolidation and regimemaintenance, on the one hand, and ensuing political contestations on the other. Populist authoritarianismpersists during pandemics through three significant connected elements of ideological dominationpropagated through mass media, the hetero-patriarchal family, and educational system. 5. 市场中的政治反抗：奶茶联盟中的消费激进主义（Political Resistance intheMarketplace: Consumer Activism in the Milk Tea Alliance）Debby Sze Wan Chan，澳大利亚国立大学中国与世界研究中心和克劳福德公共政策学院讲师【摘要】2019-2021 年间，香港、泰国和缅甸经历了一波又一波的民主运动。相似的政治轨迹和民主诉求将三地紧密联系在一起，有人称之为“奶茶联盟”。除了街头抗议，三地的民主派公民还参与了政治驱动型消费。这一经济策略将市场变成了一个反抗场所，并使反抗得以持续。在香港和泰国，联合抵制和抵制消费在运动中并存，前者的消费激进主义比后者更为广泛。在缅甸，反军政权的公民主要采取联合抵制策略。在政治驱动消费主义的类似目标下，香港、泰国和缅甸在采取联合抵制和抵制购买行动方面的差异又该如何解释的呢？根据对这三个地区的深入访谈和二手资料，这项比较研究发现，政治驱动型消费主义与政治环境相互作用。在封闭的政治体制下，例如缅甸，政治消费者只能进行隐蔽的抵抗。在混合体制下，如香港和泰国，政治消费者可以利用联合抵制和抵制购买这两种方式进行公开抵抗，政治消费者的参与程度因是否有其他政治途径而异。

【 原 文 】 Hong Kong, Thailand, and Myanmar experienced waves of pro-democracy movements from2019–2021. Similar political trajectories and democratic aspirations bound the three territories together

under what some called the Milk Tea Alliance. Alongside street protests, pro-democracy citizens in the threeterritories engaged in politics-driven consumption. The economic strategy turned the market into a resistancesite and sustained defiance. In Hong Kong and Thailand, boycotts and buycotts co-existed in the movementswith the consumer activism of the former more widespread than for the latter. In Myanmar, anti-militaryregime citizens primarily adopted the boycott tactic. With a similar objective of politics-driven consumerism, what explains the variations in the adoption of boycotts and buycotts in Hong Kong, Thailand, and Myanmar?Based on in-depth interviews and secondary information from the three territories, this comparative studyfinds that politics-driven consumerism interacts with political environments. In a closed political system, for

instance Myanmar, political consumers can only engage in covert resistance. In hybrid regimes, suchas

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Hong Kong and Thailand, political consumers can leverage both boycotts and buycotts as overt resistance, with the level of political consumer engagement varying according to the availability of alternative political

avenues. 6. 中国全球化的环境倡议：非政府组织参与“绿色一带一路”倡议（Environmental

Advocacy in a Globalising China: Non-Governmental Organisation Engagement withtheGreen Belt and Road Initiative）

夏颖，香港大学法学院助理教授

【摘要】尽管“一带一路”倡议为欠发达地区带来了发展机遇，但也引发了对负面环境影响和可持续性的担忧。尽管学术界对中国绿化“一带一路”倡议的努力兴趣浓厚，但对非政府组织参与政策制定的情况研究不足。本研究首次以实证研究的方式，考察了非政府环保组织与中国政府在绿色“一带一路”倡议下的互动。研究发现，非政府组织采用了四种策略来参与国家主导的倡议-民间外交、发展伙伴关系、提供服务和外部改革-并且发展伙伴和服务提供者在影响中国“一带一路”倡议相关环境政策方面比其他策略更为积极。本文阐释了民间社会行动者在绿化“一带一路”倡议中的机遇与制约，以及非民主背景下非政府组织与政府之间的动态关系。

【原文】Although the Belt and Road Initiative presents growth opportunities for less developed regions, it

also raises concerns about negative environmental impacts and sustainability. Despite proliferating academicinterest in China’s efforts to green the Belt and Road Initiative, the engagement of non-governmental

organisations in policymaking has been understudied. This research marks the first empirical effort toexamine the interactions between environmental non-governmental organisations and the Chinesegovernment under the banner of a green Belt and Road Initiative. It finds that non-governmental

organisations have employed four strategies to engage with the state-led initiative – civil diplomacy, development partnership, service provision, and outside reform – and that development partners and serviceproviders have been more active than the others in shaping China’s Belt and Road Initiative-relatedenvironmental policies. This article elucidates civil society actors’ opportunities and constraints in greeningthe Belt and Road Initiative and non-governmental organisations–government dynamics in a non-democraticcontext. 7. 韩国和台湾地区最低工资政策的政治经济学：党派力量强弱下的决策制定（ThePolitical Economy of Minimum Wage Policies in South Korea and Taiwan:

Decision-Making under Strong versus Weak Partisanship）Ray Dongryul Kim，罗彻斯特理工学院政治学系系主任

Chin-En Wu，台湾中央研究院政治研究所（IPSAS）研究员

【摘要】本研究对韩国和台湾地区的最低工资决策进行了系统比较。研究结果表明，韩国以大企业为主导的经济为各政党所利用，建立了被政党剥削的对立劳资关系，导致在最低工资问题上的党派决策，且其程度高于经济较为混合的台湾。基于经济结构的巨大社会鸿沟转化为最低工资政策的巨大党派差

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异，这一点通过最低工资问题的独特性的可见，且通过三方委员会的代理人得以实现。从结果来看，韩国和台湾地区之间存在着明显的差异：韩国每年的最低工资增幅波动很大，而台湾地区在不同政府执政期间的增幅保持稳定。韩国政府积极回应其核心选民（无论是劳工还是企业），而台湾当局则寻求平衡。

【原文】This study conducts a systemic comparison of minimum wage decision-making in KoreaandTaiwan. It demonstrates that Korea’s big-business-dominated economy builds confrontational

labour–business relations to be exploited by political parties, resulting in partisan decisions on the minimumwage, to a greater extent than Taiwan’s more mixed economy. A large social divide based on the economicstructure translates into a substantial partisan difference in minimum wage policies, when endorsedbytheunique features of the minimum wage issue and carried out through the agents of the tripartite commission. As seen from the outcomes, a marked difference exists between Korea and Taiwan: Korea shows a dramaticfluctuation in annual minimum-wage increases, whereas Taiwan’s increases remain stable across different

governments. Korean governments actively respond to their core constituencies, whether labour or business, while Taiwan governments seek to strike a balance. 8. 韩国协同治理的起源：民主化后头十年的分析（The Origins of Collaborative

Governance in South Korea: An Analysis of the First Ten Years after Democratisation）Sunhyuk Kim，高丽大学公共管理学教授

Chonghee Han，韩国首尔光云大学公共管理系教授

【摘要】1987 年，韩国在社会运动的推动下向民主过渡。大民主联盟包括反对党和各种民间团体，包括学生团体、工会和宗教组织。民间社会继续向过渡后的政府施压，要求其解散专制结构，废除不民主的做法。1961-1987 年间，韩国的政治威权主义与发展型国家密不可分，发展型国家带来了令人瞩目的经济发展。民主化之后的政府改革需要削弱（如果不是瓦解）发展型国家，使公共治理和政策制定更加透明、反应更快、参与性更强。本文将以民主化后的头十年为重点，探讨韩国的政府改革。卢泰愚政府于 1988 年成立了行政改革委员会，金泳三政府于 1993 年成立了行政改革总统委员会。虽然这两个机构都有平民参与改革进程，但政府行政部和财政经济部在改革的设计和实施中占据主导地位，这表明韩国引入和实施协同治理是由国家主导的。本文可从韩国的案例中可以得出比较意义。【 原 文 】 South Korea’s transition to democracy in 1987 was driven by social movements. The granddemocracy coalition included the opposition party and various civic associations, including student groups, labour unions, and religious organisations. Civil society continued to pressure the post-transitional

governments to dismantle authoritarian structures and remove undemocratic practices. Political

authoritarianism in South Korea in 1961–1987 was inseparable from the developmental state that deliveredthe country’s impressive economic development. Government reform after the democratisation entailedtheweakening, if not dismantling, of the developmental state, to make public governance and policymakingmore transparent, responsive, and participatory. In this paper we examine government reformin SouthKorea, focusing on the first ten years following democratisation. The Roh Tae Woo government createdtheAdministrative Reform Committee in 1988, and the Kim Young Sam government launched the Presidential

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Commission for Administrative Reform in 1993. Although both agencies engaged civilians in the reformprocess, it was the Ministry of Government Administration and the Ministry of Finance and Economythat

dominated the designing and implementing of the reforms, which demonstrates that the introductionandimplementation of collaborative governance in South Korea was state led. Comparative implications aredrawn from the South Korean case. 【编译：王诗涵张潇文】【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

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《欧亚研究》（Europe-Asia Studies）Europe-Asia Studies，Vol. 76, No.6, 2024

1. 同情还是批评？俄罗斯极左派与极右派对乌克兰战争的反应（Sympathy or Criticism?The European Far Left and Far Right React to Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine）Andreas Fagerholm，埃博学术大学社会科学、商业与经济和法学院讲师

【摘要】本研究旨在增进我们对欧洲“同情俄罗斯”倾向的了解。通过内容分析，研究了极左派（26个）和极右派（33 个）——对俄罗斯持正面看法最常见的两个党派——对俄罗斯2022 年对乌克兰的战争的反应。研究结果为了解当代欧洲政党政治中“同情俄罗斯”趋势的普遍性和性质提供了见解。【原文】This study seeks to contribute to our knowledge on ‘Russia-sympathising’ tendencies in Europe. Bymeans of content analysis, it examines how the far left (N=26) and the far right (N=33)—namely, thetwoparty families where benign views on Russia are expected to occur most commonly—have reactedtoRussia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The findings provide insights into the prevalence and natureof

‘Russia-sympathising’ trends in contemporary European party politics. 2. 后苏联空间俄罗斯霸权的终结？乌克兰战争与欧亚大陆解体进程（The endof

Russian Hegemony in the Post-Soviet Space? War in Ukraine and DisintegrationProcesses in Eurasia）

Ruslan Zaporozhchenko，哈尔科夫国立大学政治社会学系

【摘要】文章探讨了俄罗斯霸权秩序在后苏联空间崩溃后的解体过程。俄罗斯对既有国际秩序体系和美国霸权的不满是其于 2022 年 2 月对乌克兰军事行动的原因之一。一方面，对乌克兰的军事行动是俄罗斯坚守霸权秩序、与包括中国、伊朗、印度在内的反对美国霸权的潜在盟友形成地缘政治集团的尝试。另一方面，对乌克兰的军事行动是俄罗斯对自身地缘政治野心的重新定义，其借此在全球范围内建立另一种霸权秩序。

《欧亚研究》（Europe-Asia Studies）为每年出刊 10 期的学术 期刊 ， 由 Routledge 代 表格 拉 斯格 大 学中 东 欧 研究部门（University of Glasgow）出版。主要关注前苏联地区国家的政治、经济、社会议题及其 20 世纪的历史。

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【原文】The article examines the disintegration processes that are a consequence of the collapse of theRussian hegemonic order in the post-Soviet space. Russia’s disagreement with the established systemof

international order and US hegemony was one of the reasons for Russia’s military invasion of UkraineinFebruary 2022. On the one hand, the invasion in Ukraine is Russia’s attempt to hold on to the hegemonicorder and to form a geopolitical bloc with potential allies, including China, Iran and India, which also opposethe global hegemony of the United States. On the other, the invasion in Ukraine is a redefinition of its owngeopolitical ambitions, which Russia uses to constitute an alternative hegemonic order of the global level. 3. 三海倡议的地缘政治作用：麦金德“中间层”战略的重演（The Geopolitical Roleof theThree Seas Initiative: Mackinder’s ‘Middle Tier’ Strategy Redux）Paolo Pizzolo，雅盖隆大学国际关系学助理教授

【摘要】三海倡议（TSI）是波罗的海、黑海和亚得里亚海国家组成的论坛。1919 年，英国地缘政治理论先驱哈尔福德·麦金德（Halford J. Mackinder）提出“中间层”战略，与两次世界大战期间波兰的Intermarium 项目相呼应。如今，美国视三海倡议为“新欧洲”的资产，亲大西洋主义的中东欧国家则将其视为建立跨大西洋联系的工具。本文认为，三海倡议复兴了麦金德“中间层”战略。与一个世纪前英法与“中间层”国家结盟以抗衡德国和俄罗斯的方式类似，如今美国与“新欧洲”在三海倡议中更紧密的联系强化了北约相对于欧盟的地位，重新平衡了欧盟西部的行为体并制衡了俄罗斯的利益。【原文】The Three Seas Initiative（TSI）is a forum of Baltic, Black and Adriatic sea countries. In1919, pioneering British geopolitical theorist Halford J. Mackinder promoted a ‘Middle Tier’ strategy, that

paralleled the Polish interwar ‘Intermarium’ project. Today, the United States views the TSI as an asset inthe ‘New Europe’, while pro-Atlanticist Central and Eastern European states see it as a tool tobuildtransatlantic connections. This article suggests that the TSI revives Mackinder’s ‘Middle Tier’ strategy. Similar to how the Franco–British bonds with the ‘Middle Tier’ states sought to offset Germany andRussiaa century ago, today stronger ties between the US and the ‘New Europe’ within the TSI strengthentheposition of NATO vis-à-vis the EU, rebalance Western EU actors and counter Russian interests. 4. “气候在变化，总统却没有变化”：俄罗斯的“非政治性”气候行动主义（‘The ClimateIs Changing and the President Is Not’：‘Non-Political’ Climate Activismin Russia）Svetlana Erpyleva，不来梅大学东欧研究中心、公共社会学实验室研究员

Eeva Luhtakallio，赫尔辛基大学社会科学学院教授

【摘要】本文以俄罗斯的“未来星期五”运动为例，探讨在日益增长的威权主义下，当“政治”问题不可避免时，“公民”社会运动如何“避开政治”。虽然活动人士避免表达“政治”要求以免遭到政权镇压，但他们逐渐认识到，如果不解决更广泛的“政治”问题，他们的目标就无法实现。通过对气候活动人士的深入访谈分析，本文确定了三种“避免政治”的框架，每种框架都以特定的方式将气候变化与更广泛的政治问题相联系。

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【原文】Using the ‘Fridays for Future’ movement in Russia as a case study, this article asks how‘civil’ society movements ‘avoid politics’ under growing authoritarianism when dealing with ‘politics’ becomesunavoidable. While activists refrain from voicing ‘political’ demands to avoid repression by the regime, theycome to understand that their goals are unachievable unless they address broader ‘political’ issues. Basedonan analysis of in-depth interviews with climate activists, we identify three frames of ‘avoiding politics’. Eachframe relates climate change with broader political issues in a specific way. 5. 同意的剖析：俄罗斯国家与曾被驱逐出境的民族（An Anatomy of Consent: TheStateand Formerly Deported Peoples in Russia）

Alexander Osipov，捷克国际种族和语言多样性研究中心

【摘要】本文探讨了 20 世纪 90 年代俄罗斯代表被驱逐民族的组织的衰落。尽管政治和法律条件有利，且全国上下对需要为斯大林时代种族驱逐的受害者提供补偿达成了广泛共识，这些组织大多停止或改变了其活动，既没有实现目标，也没有受到政府的压力或恐吓。我们通过研究这些组织面临的机会结构以及国家和非国家行为者共同的议程设置特征来解释这一矛盾现象。

【原文】The article considers the decline of the organisations representing formerly deported ethnicities inRussia in the 1990s. Despite the favourable political and legal conditions and the broad national consensuson the need to provide redress to the victims of ethnic deportations in the Stalinist era, these organisationslargely ceased or changed their activities without having achieved their goals and without experiencinggovernmental pressure or intimidation. This paradox will be explained by an examination of the structureof

opportunities faced by these organisations and the features of agenda-setting shared by state and non-stateactors. 6. 抗议恰怕耶夫斯克的破坏：苏联末期城市的绿色政治（Protesting DestructioninChapaevsk: Green Politics in a Late Soviet City）

Alexander Herbert，伍斯特理工学院文理学部助理教授

【摘要】本项省级案例研究展示了苏联末期因环境焦虑而动员起来的政治运动的多样性，尤其是在莫斯科以外的地区。通过关注倡导生态社会主义的绿色政治的兴起，该分析响应了人类世学者的呼吁，探索充满政治可能性的苏联末期的俄罗斯。在那里，环境主义政治成为一股变革的力量。鉴于绿色运动在苏联解体前取得的成功，1990 年后绿色运动的失败为了解苏联解体前俄罗斯各省绿色政治的有效性提供了新的视角。

【 原 文 】 This provincial case study demonstrates the diversity of political movements mobilisedbyenvironmental anxieties, particularly outside of Moscow, in the final years of Soviet Russia. By focusingonthe emergence of green politics that promoted ecosocialism, the analysis takes up the call proposedbyscholars of the Anthropocene by exploring late Soviet Russia as a place of political possibilities, whereenvironmentalism-as-politics became a force for change. The failure of the green movement after 1990, in