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织间协调产生的善意制度重叠将有望帮助各国际组织实现互利共赢，更有效地提供公共

产品。

而恶意的制度重叠则是国际组织乃至其成员国竞争的产物，旨在通过发展相同的能

力削弱其他国际组织的重要性，是国际组织的冗余而不是补充强化。如果国家认为现有

的国际组织无效、没有合法性，或有意挑起竞争，就可能在未与现有国际组织协调下建

立新机构或扩大现有机构，恶意弱化现有国际组织的职能；而国际组织为了增强权力、

实现目标，也可能会以挤压其他组织为代价扩大自己的职能范围。恶意的制度重叠如果

涉及现存国际组织的核心领域，则极有可能构成对其国际地位的挑战，并引发资源和影

响力方面的冲突。

二、国际组织应对制度重叠的行动框架

关于国际组织面对不同类别的制度重叠时的可能行动，本文提出了一个假说框架：

1. 国际组织对制度重叠的性质判断

实际上，很多制度重叠的性质并不明确，毕竟挑战现有秩序的国际组织和国家不太

可能公开宣称它的真正意图。因此，对制度重叠性质的判断取决于关键国际组织行为体，

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如国际组织的秘书长、副秘书长或其他高级官员。他们对制度重叠的看法取决于各种潜

在的制度和个人因素，如国际组织间的历史关系、国际组织高级官员之间的熟悉程度，

以及这些官员的国家文化背景等。

国际组织内的这些关键行为体对组织间关系的判断将影响该国际组织的下一步行动。

他们如果以正和的角度看待制度重叠，认为制度重叠是善意的，就会推动与对方国际组

织的合作；而他们如果以零和的角度看待另一个国际组织的职能扩张，就会寻求巩固自

己的地位，并试图抵制他们眼中正挑战自己地位的国际组织的职能扩张。

2. 国际组织重塑制度重叠的手段

重塑制度重叠时，国际组织行为体既可以采取行为手段，也可以采取话语手段。

（1）决定接纳制度重叠时

一旦国际组织行为体决定接纳与其他国际组织的制度重叠，其采用各种行为、话语

手段的终极目的便是说服或规避组织内持怀疑态度的成员国或其他行为体，并调整国际

组织自身的机构以方便合作。

其中，国际组织可采用的行为手段包括通过外交渠道与对方决策者建立密切的私人

联系，以便协调政策和战略等。为了克服来自组织内成员国的阻力，国际组织行为体还

可以通过控制议事流程，最大限度地减少反对成员国的参与。除此之外，国际组织行为

体还可以在成员国之间斡旋，如召集成员国进行谈判、建立后方渠道等。而可采用的话

语手段则包括通过各种演讲和公众活动为强化合作找好理由等。

（2）决定抵制制度重叠时

一旦国际组织行为体决定抵制挑战其地位的国际组织的制度重叠，其采用行为和话

语手段的终极目标便是干预挑战型国际组织的相关决策落实，乃至推动竞争性的制度建

设与其抗衡。总体而言，抵制制度重叠对于国际组织而言更为困难，因为国际组织无法

直接影响其他组织的决策。

其中，国际组织可采用的行为手段包括：与一道反对制度重叠的成员国联手策划反

对挑起制度重叠的国际组织的行动，甚至推动本组织竞争性的职能扩张以抗衡制度重叠。

而可采用的话语手段则包括公开批评挑战者国际组织，合法化自己的职能扩张行动等。

3. 决定重塑制度重叠成败的因素

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国际组织行为体对制度重叠的应对是成是败，取决于两个因素，其中最重要的就是

国际组织的制度能力（institutional capacity）。任何打算应对制度重叠挑战的国际组织都

需要具备制定战略对策的政治智慧，以及随后落实对策的正式/非正式权力。

同时，国际组织还需要具备相应的机会结构（opportunity structure），该结构由国际

组织成员国偏好的集中程度决定。成员国中的强国常常具有对国际组织直接施加影响的

能力，在安全领域尤为是如此，因此政府间国际组织应对制度重叠时很难公开违背成员

国的一致偏好；而如果国际组织成员国之间的偏好更加分散，国际组织的行动空间也会

相应变大。

4. 国际组织行动后的四种结果

国际组织无论选择抵制还是接受制度重叠，均会面临两种可能的结果：

如果国际组织在接受制度重叠后还能妥善应对，便有望与诱发制度重叠的国际组织

产生更大的协作效应（synergies），提升双方效能、提供更多的公共产品；而如果国际组

织无法克服加强合作所面临的障碍，那么这些国际组织组织就只能共存（coexist）而无法

产生协作效应进而双赢。

如果国际组织选择抵制了其他国际组织的职能扩张并成功，其有望巩固（consolidate）

自身地位，并保持其资源和制度优势；但如果国际组织未能成功抵制恶意的制度重叠，

就会面临边缘化（marginalised）的风险，在最极端的情况下甚至会被其他职能相同的国

际组织取代。

三、实证案例：北约与欧盟的关系演变

为了验证上述假说，本文以北约与欧盟从 2014 年至 2020 年的关系演变为例，基于

北约高级官员访谈观察北约对欧盟态度的转变，并探究由此引发的政策转向。研究发现，

北约和欧盟的关系不仅符合上述假说，在不同时期北约还因为对欧盟的态度转变而出现

不同的路径选择。

1、第一阶段：2014-2016

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2014 年欧洲经历的地缘政治冲击，以及组织双方领导层密切私交促使北约以正和博

弈的视角看待与欧盟的关系。北约意识到自己和欧盟均无法单独应对日益复杂的安全挑

战。因此，北约一方面积极扩展自身安保能力，一方面与欧盟加强协作，以便结合自身的

军事手段和欧盟的民事手段应对当前问题。

北约开始利用行为与话语手段积极强化与欧盟的合作。观察北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝

格从 2014 年 3 月至 2016 年 7 月针对欧盟发布的 18 次公开讲话可发现，北约开始明确

表达与欧盟增进合作的强烈愿望，援引意识形态因素强调双方深化合作的重要性，并着

力展现北约高级官员“为拉近北约与欧盟的距离做出了特别的努力”。

在具体行动上，北约主动绕过正式的组织合作渠道，通过封闭性的双边会议加强同

欧盟的联系。由于北约和欧盟此时的交流议程流于形式，实质上仅限于业务合作，北约

高级官员选择绕过正式渠道，通过推进同欧盟的交叉通报（即直接参与对方高级别会议）

和双边会议，创造了良好的合作气氛。

除此之外，北约还通过一系列屏蔽手段，尽可能保证与欧盟的谈判不受成员国干扰。

首先，北约和欧盟设定了控制谈判的共同程序，尽可能将谈判屏蔽在异议成员国之外。

北约与欧盟关于深化合作关系的初步谈判仅允许包含双方决策者的五人小组进行。只有

在达成一致意见后，谈判小组才会与各国大使交换完整的草案，而草案也不得带出会议

室。这些举措确保了国际组织较之成员国具有更强的谈判地位。

这些举动导致北约和欧盟的协作显著增强，并于 2016 年 7 月达成了《联合宣言》。

《联合宣言》不仅明确了双方深化合作的意愿，还将谈判进程中使用的非正式渠道常态

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化，使两个组织之间的非正式信息交流更加全面、灵活性更高。同期，欧盟发展防务领域

所带来的制度重叠以及潜在竞争风险则被北约淡化了。

2、第二阶段：2016-2020

对欧盟而言，与北约加强合作只是其应对新安全环境的手段之一，获取战略自主权、

推动防务一体化发展同样重要。从 2016 年至 2020 年，欧盟不断推进“永久结构性合作”

防务合作协议（即 PESCO）在内的防务一体化建设，实则激化了与北约在防务领域的制

度重叠。

相应地，在 2016 年《联合宣言》签署后，北约看待欧盟发展的视角也逐渐从正和走

向零和。由于防务是北约的核心职能，感受到威胁的北约不再认为欧盟的防务能力建设

是对北约职能的补充，而认为这是对北约的替代，同时将导致欧盟抛弃北约核心成员国

美国的防务战略设计。为了维护自己以及成员国的利益与地位，北约开始有选择地支持

或反对欧盟防务建设，既避免与欧盟关系出现裂痕，同时保证北约在欧洲安保领域的首

要地位。

北约开始利用各种行为与话语手段抵制欧盟在军事领域造就的制度重叠。通过分析

2016 年夏季至 2020 年底，北约秘书长发表的 37 次相关讲话，可发现北约对欧盟的态度

逐渐强硬：在《联合宣言》发表后一段时间，北约主要重视宣传与欧盟务实合作的初步成

果。随着欧盟的防务倡议日益受重视，北约在宣传中也更频繁地提及与欧盟在防务领域

合作的愿望，并对欧盟防务建设举措表示欢迎，前提是其与北约相辅相成，并为北约所

用。而很快，北约开始倾向于对欧盟发出更直接的警告。2018 年 2 月的慕尼黑安全会议

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上，北约秘书长直言“欧盟无法独自保护欧洲”，警告欧盟不要试图“将北美与欧洲分割开

来”，并批评欧盟主张的战略自主等概念的政治意义大于实质意义，“不是明智之举”。

在具体行动上，北约虽然没有直接干预欧盟防务建设的手段，却仍然利用各种各样

外交和议程设置等方式引导欧盟在防务建设方面妥协，保证了自身在欧洲安保领域的地

位。首先，北约继续与欧盟合作，致力于加强与欧盟的政治对话，以便对欧盟取得更大影

响。利用逐渐成为惯例的非正式渠道，此阶段北约和欧盟的政治接触不断增加，并于 2018

年 7 月同欧盟再次签署《联合宣言》，重申了推进务实合作的承诺。同时，北约也通过

幕后游说，引导欧盟就 PESCO 达成妥协方案，并允许第三方（即北约）参与欧盟的防务

建设。北约秘书长积极利用与欧盟领导层的密切联系进行私下谈判，还与反对欧盟防务

建设的北约成员国（如美国或荷兰）密切合作，以形成合力。除此之外，北约还积极推进

改革，以制衡欧盟在防务领域的职能扩张，保障北约在欧洲安全中的首要地位。北约一

方面促进盟友团结、加强政治协商，另一方面也呼吁欧洲各国“承认北约仍然是强大集体

防御的跨大西洋框架，也是盟国间安全磋商和决策的重要论坛”。

通过上述手段，北约成功地巩固了在欧洲安全架构中的首要地位。虽然期间反对北

约-欧盟关系升格的美国总统特朗普和法国总统马克龙当选，而过去曾充当两个组织之间

跨大西洋桥梁的英国也退出了欧盟，导致北约的行动空间比前一时期受到了更大的限制，

但北约还是成功巩固了自己在欧洲安全架构中的首要地位，并通过与欧盟的持续合作重

塑了欧盟的战略一体化进程，促使欧盟就一些防务建设问题妥协。

四、结论

本文探究了北约对 2014 年以来与欧盟日益加剧的制度重叠的看法和反应。起初，

2014 年的地缘政治震荡使北约认为必须与欧盟建立更密切的关系以应对安全挑战、加强

地区安保能力。因此，北约在话语和行为上均鼓励欧盟防务一体化建设，推动与欧盟的

合作最终推动了《联合宣言》的发表。然而，北约发现欧盟的防务一体化建设逐渐展现出

与北约战略脱钩的势头。作为回应，北约自 2016 年以来采取双重战略，一方面鼓励双方

合作，另一方面又阻挠欧盟威胁北约地位的举措。在此期间，北约不仅巩固其在欧洲安

全架构中的首要地位，同时也与欧盟创造更大的协同效应，进而重塑了同欧盟的关系。

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然而，北约也将一直面临边缘化的风险。2021 年以来，中国的崛起、美国自阿富汗

的撤军、西式民主的衰落以及一系列新的安全挑战都让欧洲乃至西方质疑北约的真实作

用。美国外交政策界仍然在激烈争论着北约应在国际舞台扮演什么角色，而欧洲战略自

主权的讨论也远非结束。但正如本文所述，在面对各种国际事务时，北约仍能发挥巨大

的影响力，绝非被动的棋子。

对本研究而言，北约的案例证明了国际组织行为体的偏好决定其应对制度重叠的方

式。进一步研究可以分析其他制度重叠案例，如世界银行与亚洲基础设施和投资银行的

制度重叠、国际能源机构与国际可再生能源机构之间的制度重叠，并研究相关国际组织

的应对方式，进而持续检验本文所提出的假说是否可应用于其他类型的国际组织。

 译者评述

本文通过探究非国家行为体在应对制度重叠中的作用，揭示了国际组织以及其高级

官员的能动性，丰富了学界的相关研究。在研究制度重叠问题时，现有研究大多以国家

为中心，从成员国的角度探讨国家在促成制度重叠中发挥的关键作用以及制度重叠对国

家行为的影响。这些研究实则忽视了国际组织本身对制度重叠的影响，只将国际组织视

为国家追求其利益的功能场所。而本文研究发现，国际组织行为体也会形成独立的偏好，

进而影响国际组织对制度重叠的态度；而国际组织也会通过独特的制度方式减少国家对

国际组织间关系的影响。

然而，本文的理论框架有待进一步发展。文中的理论框架对合作和竞争的态度较为

二元化，然而现实中不同国际组织在竞争中合作的情况也不在少数。此举不仅会带来短

期的红利，也会为双方干预对方行动创造机会。文中的北约案例已经展现了国际组织行

动的复杂性：即使面对有威胁自身地位风险的欧盟，北约仍然在能够合作的领域选择了

合作，仅阻挠欧盟部分影响其地位的行动，进而影响了欧盟防务一体化建设的进程。

此外，本文对竞争的前景十分悲观，但尚未有更多现实案例对其进行支撑。观察理

论框架可知，本文认为一旦国际组织间采取合作，最悲观的前景也只是双方共存；而一

旦国际组织互相对抗，最悲观的前景则是某个国际组织失能并退出国际舞台。然而，其

他研究通过观察现已失能的“僵尸国际组织”发现，组织本身架构不良、成员国不可弥合

的政治分歧而非与其他国际组织的竞争才是当前一些国际组织发展陷入停滞的主要原因。

未来可以选取更多失能国际组织为案例，进一步探究其发展停滞是否受恶性竞争影响。

【校对审核：罗洁 江若婵 李源】

【责任编辑：封欣怡】

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新刊速递

《国际组织》（International Organization）

International Organization，Vol.77，No.3，2023

1. 非洲的新事物：国家生产奴隶，奴隶形成国家(Something New out of Africa:

States Made Slaves, Slaves Made States)

J.C. Sharman，剑桥大学政治学与国际研究系教授

【摘要】在这篇文章中，作者从最初的人口和制度条件到外部需求的转变、单个国家的应对措施及其

集体的系统性后果，解释了非洲奴隶制与国家形成之间的关系。从历史上看，非洲统治者面临着与众

不同的挑战：人口密度低，这对人口的控制比对领土的控制更为优先，内部分裂往往比外部征服构成

更大的威胁。对奴隶需求的大规模增长为非洲统治者提供了更多利用外部资源进行“由外而内”式的

国家建设的机会。许多统治者通过建立高度军事化的掠夺性奴隶制国家来做到这一点。其共同后果是

系统性不安全的加剧。这些发展在时间上的差异反映了对奴隶需求扩大的地区和历史变化。奴隶制国

家首先出现在西非，反映了 17 世纪末跨大西洋奴隶贸易的扩张，一个世纪后，随着印度洋奴隶贸易

的平行增长，奴隶制国家蔓延到东非。这种“由外而内”的国家形成路径与当代后殖民国家的形成既

相似又形成对比。

【原文】In this article I explain a nexus between slavery and state formation in Africa, proceeding from initial

demographic and institutional conditions to an external demand shift, individual state responses, and their

collective systemic consequences. Historically, African rulers faced distinctive challenges: low population

density prioritized control of people more than territory, and internal disintegration was often a greater threat

《国际组织》（International Organization）是一份分析

政府和非政府组织运行的同行评审学术期刊，由 Springer

出版。该刊涵盖整个政治经济学领域，重点关注国际组

织的政策和结构。2022 年该刊影响因子为 7.8，在国际关

系的 96 种期刊中排名第 1。

2024 年第 1 期（总第 13 期）

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than external conquest. A massive expansion in the demand for slaves offered African rulers increased

opportunities to use external resources for “outside-in” state building. Many did so by creating highly

militarized predatory slaving states. The collective consequence was heightened systemic insecurity. Variation

in the timing of these developments reflected regional and historical variation in the expansion of the demand

for slaves. Slaving states appeared first in West Africa, reflecting the late-seventeenth-century expansion of

the trans-Atlantic slave trade, before spreading to East Africa a century later, following the parallel later

increase in the Indian Ocean slave trade. This “outside-in” path to state formation both parallels and contrasts

with contemporary postcolonial state formation.

2. 专制政府如何决定谁移居国外：来自东德的证据（How Authoritarian

Governments Decide Who Emigrates: Evidence from East Germany）

Julian Michel，加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校博士候选人

Michael K. Miller，加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校副教授

Margaret E. Peters，加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校教授

【摘要】大多数专制国家限制移民，但仍允许一些公民出境。这些政权如何决定谁可以离开？作者

认为，许多专制政权策略性地将移民目标锁定在反政权人士身上，从而培养出更忠诚的民众，而不

会产生持续收编或镇压的弊端。然而，这就产生了一个问题，即鼓励公民加入反对派活动以确保离

境。作为回应，专制政体同时会惩罚试图移民的持不同政见者，从而将除最坚定的反对者之外的所

有持不同政见者拒之门外。为了验证作者的理论，本文研究了从东德国家档案馆解密的两万多页移

民申请中编码的原始数据集。在对专制国家移民决定的首次个人层面检验中，作者发现积极的反对

意见会促进移民申请的批准，但也会导致对申请者的惩罚。领取养老金的人也更有可能获得出境许

可，而专业人士的可能性较小。本文的研究结果揭示了全球移民的政治来源和一种被忽视的专制韧

性战略。

【原文】Most autocracies restrict emigration yet still allow some citizens to exit. How do these regimes decide

who can leave? We argue that many autocracies strategically target anti-regime actors for emigration, thereby

crafting a more loyal population without the drawbacks of persistent co-optation or repression. However, this

generates problematic incentives for citizens to join opposition activity to secure exit. In response, autocracies

simultaneously punish dissidents for attempting to emigrate, screening out all but the most determined

opponents. To test our theory, we examine an original data set coded from over 20,000 pages of declassified

emigration applications from East Germany's state archives. In the first individual-level test of an autocracy's

emigration decisions, we find that active opposition promoted emigration approval but also punishment for

applying. Pensioners were also more likely to secure exit, and professionals were less likely. Our results shed

light on global migration's political sources and an overlooked strategy of autocratic resilience.

3. 偏差性合作：冷战常规军备控制中的社会压力与论坛管理（Deflective

Cooperation: Social Pressure and Forum Management in Cold War Conventional

Arms Control）

104

Giovanni Mantilla，剑桥大学政治学与国际研究系副教授

【摘要】为什么国家要建立薄弱的国际机构？国际环境机构层出不穷但却令人失望，学者们对此感到

沮丧，越来越多的学者对这些协议表示遗憾，因为它们似乎只是 “摆设”，而不是解决问题。本文将

对这一现象进行了解释。作者将一种偏差性合作的动态理论化，以解释妥协性“面子机构”的产生。

作者认为，当国际社会要求建立一种制度的压力与各国对建立这种制度的利弊的持久分歧发生冲突时，

各国可能会采取设计不合理的合作安排，以产生其所谓的实际效果。作者认为，与其说“面子机构”

是谈判失败或空洞的姿态，不如说它代表着国家间通过次优的制度化合作来管理棘手分歧的努力。作

者通过对冷战时期常规武器管制的一项新的多档案研究归纳出这一论点，这些档案最终形成了备受争

议的 1980 年《禁止或限制使用特定常规武器公约》。作者对谈判过程进行了仔细的反思，扩展并细

化了现有的国际关系理论，并将其作为一个竞争的外交实践的关键时刻和复杂产物，重新审视了其历

史意义。

【原文】Why do states create weak international institutions? Frustrated with proliferating but disappointing

international environmental institutions, scholars increasingly bemoan agreements which, rather than solving

problems, appear to exist “for show.” This article offers an explanation of this phenomenon. I theorize a

dynamic of deflective cooperation to explain the creation of compromise face-saving institutions. I argue that

when international social pressure to create an institution clashes with enduring disagreements among states

about the merits of creating it, states may adopt cooperative arrangements that are ill-designed to produce their

purported practical effects. Rather than negotiation failures or empty gestures, I contend that face-saving

institutions represent interstate efforts to manage intractable disagreement through suboptimal institutionalized

cooperation. I formulate this argument inductively through a new multi-archival study of conventional

weapons regulation during the Cold War, which resulted in the oft-maligned 1980 UN Convention on Certain

Conventional Weapons. A careful reconsideration of the negotiation process extends and nuances existing IR

theorizing and retrieves its historical significance as a critical juncture and complex product of contesting

diplomatic practices.

4. 两用欺骗：技术如何塑造国际关系中的合作（Dual Use Deception: How

Technology Shapes Cooperation in International Relations）

Jane Vaynman，天普大学助理教授

Tristan A. Volpe，美国海军研究生院助理教授

【摘要】几乎所有的技术在某种程度上都是两用的：既可民用，也可军用。这一特点给合作带来了困

境。各国可以设计军备控制机构，以减少对某些军事技术代价高昂的竞争。但它们也不想限制有价值

的民用技术。技术的两用性如何影响合作前景？作者认为，技术的两用性并不是因为它的存在而带来

挑战，而是通过它改变信息对军控机制设计的制约方式而带来挑战。作者从两个两用维度来描述技术

的变化：其一，区分军用与民用的难易程度；其二，军工企业与民用经济的融合程度。可区分性决定

了发现违规行为所需的监控水平。如果武器无法与它的民用对立面区分开来，国家就必须通过情报收

集或侵入性检查来提高侦测能力。集成性会增加向他国披露信息的成本。对于高度集成的技术而言，

展示合规性可能会暴露有关其他功能的信息，从而增加间谍活动带来的安全风险。这些因素共同作用，

2024 年第 1 期（总第 13 期）

105

使人们对国家在试图制定各种技术协议时所面临的具体信息问题产生了预期。作者引入了一个新的定

性数据集来评估这两个变量及其对所有现代军备技术合作的影响。研究结果有力地支持了这一理论。

控制新兴技术的努力应考虑两用性的变化如何形成检测和披露之间的紧张关系。

【原文】Almost all technology is dual use to some degree: it has both civilian and military applications. This

feature creates a dilemma for cooperation. States can design arms control institutions to curtail costly

competition over some military technology. But they also do not want to limit valuable civilian uses. How

does the dual use nature of technology shape the prospects for cooperation? We argue that the duality of

technology presents a challenge not by its very existence but rather through the ways it alters information

constraints on the design of arms control institutions. We characterize variation in technology along two dual

use dimensions: (1) the ease of distinguishing military from civilian uses; and (2) the degree of integration

within military enterprises and the civilian economy. Distinguishability drives the level of monitoring needed

to detect violations. When a weapon is indistinguishable from its civilian counterpart, states must improve

detection though intelligence collection or intrusive inspections. Integration sharpens the costs of disclosing

information to another state. For highly integrated technology, demonstrating compliance could expose

information about other capabilities, increasing the security risks from espionage. Together, these dimensions

generate expectations about the specific information problems states face as they try to devise agreements over

various technologies. We introduce a new qualitative data set to assess both variables and their impact on

cooperation across all modern armament technologies. The findings lend strong support for the theory. Efforts

to control emerging technologies should consider how variation in the dual use attributes shapes this tension

between detection and disclosure.

5. 破解核稳定：技术、不确定性和升级的战争博弈（Hacking Nuclear

Stability: Wargaming Technology, Uncertainty, and Escalation）

Jacquelyn Schneider，斯坦福大学国际安全与合作中心胡佛研究员

Benjamin Schechter，美国海军战争学院高级军事行动分析师

Rachael Shaffer，美国海军战争学院研究助理

【摘要】新兴技术如何影响核稳定？在本文中，我们使用了一个有 580 名玩家参与的准实验性—网

络核战争游戏，来探讨有关新兴技术与核稳定的三个假设：其一，技术的不确定性导致先发制人和升

级；其二，技术的不确定性导致克制；其三，技术的确定性通过积极的反击行动导致升级。战争游戏

表明，对网络脆弱性的不确定性和恐惧并不会立即刺激先发制人的核使用。战略稳定面临的更大危险

在于，对网络漏洞的过度自信会如何激励更激进的反制行动，其次，漏洞会如何鼓励预先授权或自动

化。这两种效应都表明，网络漏洞与意外使用核武器之间以及网络脆弱性与意外使用核武器之间都存

在令人担忧的关系。这些发现共同揭示了升级途径与战略稳定之间的复杂关系，凸显了信心和也许是

错位的确定性相对于不确定性和恐惧在战略稳定中的作用。

【原文】How do emerging technologies affect nuclear stability? In this paper, we use a quasi-experimental

cyber-nuclear wargame with 580 players to explore three hypotheses about emerging technologies and nuclear

stability: (1) technological uncertainty leads to preemption and escalation; (2) technological uncertainty leads

106

to restraint; and (3) technological certainty leads to escalation through aggressive counterforce campaigns.

The wargames suggest that uncertainty and fear about cyber vulnerabilities create no immediate incentives for

preemptive nuclear use. The greater danger to strategic stability lies in how overconfidence in cyber exploits

incentivizes more aggressive counterforce campaigns and, secondarily, how vulnerabilities encourage

predelegation or automation. Both of these effects suggest worrisome relationships between cyber exploits and

inadvertent nuclear use on one hand and cyber vulnerabilities and accidental nuclear use on the other hand.

Together, these findings reveal the complicated relationship between pathways to escalation and strategic

stability, highlighting the role that confidence and perhaps-misplaced certainty—versus uncertainty and fear—

play in strategic stability.

6.一体化世界中的隔离经济体：中低收入国家汇率变动的性别后果（Segregated

Economies in an Integrated World: The Gendered Consequences of Exchange Rate

Movements in Low- and Middle-Income Countries）

Joel W. Simmons，乔治敦大学埃德蒙·沃尔什外事服务学院副教授

【摘要】作者认为，汇率是发展中国家女性劳动力参与程度存在显著差异的一个未被充分重视的原因。

发展中国家的职业隔离现象是，外出工作的妇女往往被隔离在劳动密集型的出口导向型行业。因此，

当汇率高估导致出口价格上涨时，对女性劳动力的需求就会相应减少。这导致一些妇女退出劳动力队

伍。1990 年至 2015 年期间 150 多个中低收入国家的数据支持了这一论点。

【原文】I argue that exchange rates are an underappreciated explanation for the significant variation in the

extent of female labor force participation in developing countries. Occupational segregation in developing

countries is such that women working outside of the home tend to be segregated in labor-intensive exportoriented industries. Consequently, when an overvalued exchange rate increases export prices, it reduces

commensurately the demand for female labor. This causes some women to drop out of the labor force. Data

from over 150 low- and middle-income countries between 1990 and 2015 support this argument.

【编译：李博轩】

【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

2024 年第 1 期（总第 13 期）

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《国际组织评论》 （ The Review of International

Organizations）

The Review of International Organizations，Vol. 18, No. 4, 2023

1.国际排名与公共舆论：接受、忽视还是抵制？（International rankings and public

opinion: Compliance, dismissal, or backlash?）

Asif Efrat，以色列赫兹利亚跨学科研究中心研究员

Omer Yair，美国里士满大学助理研究员

【摘要】尽管学界对国际排名的兴趣日益浓厚，但对公众如何看待它们知之甚少。国际排名是否使公

民接受国际标准？还是公民只是简单地忽视了排名？本文通过以色列公众对美国打击人口贩运努力

排名的回应来研究这些问题。一项调查实验发现，以色列从 1 级降级到 2 级让以色列人无所畏惧。然

而降级到 3 级则会产生令人惊讶的抵制效应，减少以色列人对反人口贩运努力的支持。虽然这应该是

展示排名预期影响的可能案例，但本文表明，排名实际上可能会遇到不屑一顾或挑衅的公众反应。这

一发现表明，在评估国际排名的国内影响时要谨慎，并且对排名设计以减少抵制风险具有重要意义。

【原文】Despite growing scholarly interest in international rankings, we know little on how the public

perceives them. Do rankings bring citizens to favor compliance with international standards? Or do citizens

simply dismiss the rankings? We examine these questions through the Israeli public’s response to the U.S. tier

ranking of efforts against human trafficking. A survey experiment finds that Israel’s demotion from Tier 1 to

Tier 2 leaves Israelis unfazed; a demotion to Tier 3 produces a surprising backlash effect, reducing Israelis’

support for anti-trafficking efforts. While this should have been a likely case for demonstrating the intended

impact of rankings, we show that rankings might, in fact, meet a dismissive or defiant public response. This

finding suggests caution in the assessment of international rankings’ domestic impact, and it carries

implications for the design of rankings to reduce the risk of a backlash.

《国际组织评论》 （ The Review of International

Organizations）是一份分析政府和非政府组织运行的同行

评审学术期刊，始发刊于 2006 年，由 Springer 出版。该

刊涵盖整个政治经济学领域，重点关注国际组织的政策和

结构。2022 年该刊影响因子为 3.9，在国际关系的 96 种期

刊中排名第 12。

108

2.发现合作：国际组织的内生变化（Discovering cooperation: Endogenous change in

international organizations）

Tobias Lenz，德国吕讷堡大学国际关系系教授

Besir Ceka，美国戴维森学院政治科学系副教授

Liesbet Hooghe，美国北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校政治科学系研究员

Gary Marks，美国北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校政治科学系教授

Alexandr Burilkov，德国吕讷堡大学国际关系系研究员

【摘要】为什么有些国际组织随着时间的推移而增加授权，而另一些国际组织的授权却是静态的或下

降的？本文假设授权的动力是由国际组织的创始契约决定的，植根于开放式合同的国际组织有能力随

着时间的推移发现合作：当出现新问题时，这些国际组织可以采取新政策或加强现有领域的合作。这

反过来又引发了对授权的需求。然而，这种逻辑是由国际组织的政治制度调解的。在以民主为主的国

际组织中，授权受到政治化的制约，这种制约会随着国际实体政策组合的扩大而加剧。这些论据使用

国际权威衡量数据集的升级版本进行测试，该数据集涵盖 1950 年至 2019 年间的 41 个区域国际组织。

通过控制替代解释并解决一系列模型规范中的潜在内生性，本文找到了对论点的有力支持。

【原文】Why do some international organizations (IO) accrete delegated authority over time while in others

delegation is static or declines? We hypothesize that the dynamics of delegation are shaped by an IO’s founding

contract. IOs rooted in an open-ended contract have the capacity to discover cooperation over time: as new

problems arise these IOs can adopt new policies or strengthen collaboration in existing areas. This, in turn,

triggers a demand for delegation. However, this logic is mediated by the political regime of the IO. In

predominantly democratic IOs, delegation is constrained by politicization which intensifies as an IO’s policy

portfolio broadens. These claims are tested using an updated version of the Measure of International Authority

dataset covering 41 regional IOs between 1950 and 2019. Controlling for alternative explanations and

addressing potential endogeneity across a range of model specifications, we find robust support for our

argument.

3.保护家园：企业投资计划如何影响双边投资条约的形成（Protecting home: how

firms’ investment plans affect the formation of bilateral investment treaties）

Seung jun Kim，美国加利福尼亚大学政治科学系教授

【摘要】人们普遍认为，发展中国家寻求建立双边投资条约（BITs）以吸引外国直接投资（FDI）。

然而，发达国家在双边投资协定的制定中扮演什么角色却相对未知。在谈判外国直接投资交易时，跨

国公司（MNC）会预见到它们与东道国政府之间可能存在的投资争端。跨国公司寻求降低未来的投资

风险，要求本国政府与东道国签订双边投资协定是一个有吸引力的选择。为了检验关于资本输出行为

者影响双边投资协定的论点，本文分析了外国直接投资项目公告数据，该数据记录了跨国公司最终确

定参与外国直接投资计划的时间。研究结果表明，跨国公司已计划的外国直接投资与母国和东道国随

后签署双边投资协定的可能性密切相关。此外，通过将公司层面的财务信息与外国直接投资项目公告

2024 年第 1 期（总第 13 期）

109

相匹配，本文发现当大公司是计划的外国直接投资的来源时，母国更有可能与东道国建立双边投资协

定。这些研究结果表明，双边投资协定的创建不仅是由东道国的经济需求驱动的，也是由母国保护其

政治特权企业的愿望驱动的。

【原文】It is commonly accepted that developing countries pursue the creation of bilateral investment treaties

(BITs) to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). However, it is relatively unknown what role developed

countries play in the creation of BITs. When negotiating FDI deals, multinational corporations (MNCs)

anticipate potential investment disputes between themselves and the host government. MNCs seek to reduce

future investment risks, and asking their own government to secure BITs with the host country is an attractive

option for doing so. To test my argument about capital-exporting actors influencing BITs, I analyze FDI project

announcement data, which captures the timing of when MNCs finalize their plans to engage in FDI. The

findings show that MNCs’already-planned FDI is strongly associated with the probability of subsequent BIT

signing between the home and host country. Moreover, by matching firm-level financial information with FDI

project announcements, I show that home countries are more likely to establish BITs with host countries when

large firms are the source of the planned FDI. These findings suggest that BIT creation is not driven solely by

host countries’economic needs, but also by home countries’desire to protect their politically privileged firms.

4.全球治理中的制度重叠和政府间组织的设计（Institutional Overlap in Global

Governance and the Design of Intergovernmental Organizations）

Bernhard Reinsberg，英国格拉斯哥大学社会和政治科学学院教授

Oliver Westerwinter，瑞士圣加仑大学独立研究者

【摘要】全球治理中日益密集的重叠制度网络如何影响政府间组织（IGOs）的设计？本文认为，制度

重叠可能会催生模仿潮流，即各国使用现有组织的设计来设计新的政府间组织，这些组织参与类似的

问题领域，并为类似的成员国执行类似的治理任务作为模板。使用来自重叠制度参考组的设计模板是

有限理性设计者在复杂情况下的一种策略，因为它减少了不确定性并降低了确定合适的制度解决方案

的成本。因此，重叠增加了新的和现有的政府间组织之间设计的相似性，特别是在现有组织具有使其

能够持久存在的制度设计的情况下。通过引入全球治理中制度重叠的新衡量标准以及来自“战争相关

项目”的 534 个政府间组织的设计和治理任务的新数据，本文使用回归分析证实了论点。本文的研究

结果为制度设计、政权复杂性和更广泛的全球治理理论提供了重要的经验。

【原文】How does the increasingly dense network of overlapping institutions in global governance affect the

design of intergovernmental organizations (IGOs)? We argue that institutional overlap can unleash mimicking

dynamics whereby states design new IGOs using the design of existing organizations that engage in similar

issue areas and perform similar governance tasks for similar member states as templates. Using design

templates from the reference group of overlapping institutions is a strategy for boundedly rational designers

in situations of complexity because it reduces uncertainty and lowers the costs of identifying suitable

institutional solutions. Overlap therefore increases the design similarity between new and pre-existing IGOs,

specifically where pre-existing organizations have institutional designs that made them endure. Introducing a

new measure of institutional overlap in global governance and new data on the design and governance tasks

110

of the 534 IGOs from the Correlates of War Project, we corroborate our argument using regression analyses.

Our results hold important lessons for theories of institutional design, regime complexity, and global

governance more broadly.

5.国际组织能否影响人们对监管“大型科技公司”的态度？（Can IOs influence

attitudes about regulating “Big Tech”?）

Terrence L. Chapman，美国得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校政府管理学院教授

Huimin Li，美国得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校政府管理学院博士生候选人

【摘要】国际组织（IOs）能否影响人们对监管“大型科技公司”的态度？最近的科技行业活动引发了

多种担忧，包括用户数据的适当使用和垄断商业行为。国际组织已介入辩论，主张加强监管以保护数

字隐私，并经常将该问题视为对基本人权的威胁。这种宣传重要吗？本文假设在国际主义衡量标准上

得分较高的个人将积极响应国际组织和国际非政府组织加强监管的呼吁。本文进一步预测，自由党和

民主党将更容易接受国际组织和非政府组织的信息，特别是在强调人权时，而保守党和共和党将更容

易接受国内机构强调反垄断行动的信息。为了评估这些论点，本文于 2021 年 7 月在美国进行了一项

具有全国代表性的调查实验，该实验改变了有关科技公司构成的危险的信息的来源和框架，然后询问

受访者对加强监管的支持。对于国际主义指数得分高的受访者和政治光谱左翼的受访者来说，接触到

国际来源的消息的样本平均影响最大。与预期相反，本文发现人权和反垄断框架之间几乎没有显着差

异。本文的研究结果表明，在两极分化的时代，国际组织影响科技监管态度的能力可能有限，但重视

多边主义的个人可能仍会受到国际组织运动的影响。

【原文】Can international organizations (IOs) influence attitudes about regulating “Big Tech?” Recent

tech sector activity engenders multiple concerns, including the appropriate use of user data and monopolistic

business practices. IOs have entered the debate, advocating for increased regulations to protect digital privacy

and often framing the issue as a threat to fundamental human rights. Does this advocacy matter? We

hypothesize individuals that score high on measures of internationalism will respond positively to calls for

increased regulation that come from IOs and INGOs. We further predict Liberals and Democrats will be more

receptive to IO and NGO messaging, especially when it emphasizes human rights, while Conservatives and

Republicans will be more receptive to messaging from domestic institutions that emphasize antitrust actions.

To assess these arguments, we fielded a nationally-representative survey experiment in the U.S. in July 2021

that varied the source and framing of a message about the dangers posed by tech firms, then asked respondents

about support for increased regulation. The average treatment effect of international sources is largest for

respondents who score high on an index of internationalism and for respondents on the left of the political

spectrum. Contrary to expectations, we found few significant differences across human rights and anti-trust

framings. Our results suggest the ability of IOs to influence attitudes about tech regulation may be limited in

an era of polarization, but that individuals who value multilateralism may still be influenced by IO campaigns.

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6.国际组织的绩效：基于评估报告计算文本分析的新度量和数据集（The performance

of international organizations: a new measure and dataset based on computational text

analysis of evaluation reports）

Steffen Eckhard, 德国泽佩林大学公共管理和公共政策教授

Vytautas Jankauskas，德国泽佩林大学公共管理和公共政策副教授

Elena Leuschner, 德国泽佩林大学公共管理和公共政策副教授

Ian Burton, 瑞典哥德堡大学副教授

Tilman Kerl，奥地利维也纳工业大学副教授

Rita Sevastjanova，德国康斯坦茨大学副教授

【摘要】联合国（UN）系统的国际组织（IOs）每年发布约 750 份评估报告，提供有关其在项目、计

划、机构和主题活动方面的绩效的见解。到目前为止，从这些基于文本的报告中提取定量绩效指标还

不可行。本文使用深度学习提出了一种新颖的基于文本的性能指标：将单个句子分类为包含对所评估

的国际组织活动的负面、正面或中性评估，然后计算每个报告中正面句子的份额。内容验证表明该衡

量标准充分反映了绩效的基本概念；收敛验证发现与世界银行人工提供的绩效评分高度相关；构造验

证表明我们的措施具有理论上预期的结果。在此基础上，本文提出了一个新颖的数据集，其中包含九

个联合国系统国际组织实施的 1082 项评估活动的绩效衡量标准，并讨论了进一步研究的途径。

【原文】International organizations (IOs) of the United Nations (UN) system publish around 750 evaluation

reports per year, offering insights on their performance across project, program, institutional, and thematic

activities. So far, it was not feasible to extract quantitative performance measures from these text-based reports.

Using deep learning, this article presents a novel text-based performance metric: We classify individual

sentences as containing a negative, positive, or neutral assessment of the evaluated IO activity and then

compute the share of positive sentences per report. Content validation yields that the measure adequately

reflects the underlying concept of performance; convergent validation finds high correlation with humanprovided performance scores by the World Bank; and construct validation shows that our measure has

theoretically expected results. Based on this, we present a novel dataset with performance measures for 1,082

evaluated activities implemented by nine UN system IOs and discuss avenues for further research.

【编译：崔育涞】

【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

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《新政治经济》（New Political Economy）

New Political Economy，Vol.28，No.6，2023

1. “如果赢不了就不要玩”：家庭脱离澳大利亚养老金制度（Don’t play if you can’t

win’: household disengagement in the Australian pension system）

Antonia Settle，墨尔本大学应用经济与社会研究所博士后研究员

【摘要】为什么一些家庭未能接受养老金制度提供的财务控制机会而失败？本文借鉴政治疏离和内部

/外部理论的文献，提供了一个新的解释。本篇分析使用来自澳大利亚养老金制度中个人家庭的态度、

参与和分配结果的客观和主观度量来构建数据。本篇研究将失去参与度与态度疏离联系起来，并表明，

在养老金制度中系统性受到不利待遇的家庭不仅更有可能失去参与度，而且对制度的不公正看法更强

烈。因此，本文提出，一些家庭会以退出参与来拒绝个人账户制度，就像“局外人”通过放弃投票来

拒绝政治制度，因为他们认为该制度对他们不利。本文借鉴了疏离文献对公民政治责任失去参与度的

分析，将失去参与度的分析扩展到更新的公民财务责任研究当中。

【原文】Drawing on the literature on political alienation and insider/outsider theory, this paper offers a novel

explanation for the failure of some households to embrace the opportunities for financial control offered by

the pension system. The analysis uses data from a financial diaries study to construct objective and subjective

measures of attitudes, engagement and distributional outcomes for individual households in the Australian

pension system. By showing that households that are systematically disadvantaged in the pension system not

only are much more likely to be disengaged but have much stronger convictions about unfairness in the system,

the findings link disengagement to alienation. The analysis thus proposes that some households reject the

system of individualised accounts by disengaging – like ‘outsiders’ reject the political system by abstaining

from voting – because they see the system as stacked against them. Drawing on the alienation literature’s

《新政治经济学》（New Political Economy）是一份涵盖

国际政治经济学研究的双月刊同行评审学术期刊。其成立

于 1996 年，由 Routledge 出版社出版。本刊是国际政治经

济学领域的主流期刊之一，与《国际政治经济学评论》

（Review of International Political Economy）并列。2022

年该刊影响因子为 4.2。

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113

analysis of disengagement with political responsibilities of citizenship, the article thus extends the analysis of

disengagement to newer financial responsibilities of citizenship.

2. 国家金融化的限制：探索英国、以色列和加拿大将社会影响力债券作为金融化治国

手段的障碍（Limits to the financialisation of the state: exploring obstructions to social

impact bonds as a form of financialised statecraft in the UK, Israel, and Canada）

Asa Maron, 以色列海法大学社会学系助理教授

James W. Williams，加拿大多伦多约克大学社会科学系副教授

【摘要】金融化文献研究中出现了“国家转向”，学者们探讨了国家行为者采用金融活动的情况，但

对国家金融化的限制关注较少。本文以社会影响债券（SIB）为例，探讨了这些限制。2010 年 SIB 首

次在英国推出，随后在 35 个国家进行试点，该模式利用私人资本资助社会项目，政府根据成功程度

提供回报。尽管预期有大幅增长，但 SIB 模式从未真正占据主导地位。本文以英国、以色列和加拿大

的 SIB 推出为基础，考虑了 SIB 企业作为金融化国家战略形式所遇到的挑战，并确定了三个障碍：

（1）对国家金融化政治议程的抵制；（2）金融和公共部门文化之间的冲突；（3）金融创新被视为对

根深蒂固的社会技术惯例的“风险”和“破坏”。这些障碍揭示了国家本身内部和金融与公共部门之

间的紧张关系，并表明思考国家金融化的限制和失败的重要性。

【原文】Within the financialisation literature, scholars have turned their attention to the state, exploring the

adoption of financial activities by state actors, paying less attention to the limits of state financialisation. This

paper explores these limits using the case of social impact bonds (SIBs). Pioneered in the UK in 2010 and

subsequently trialed in some 35 countries, SIBs use private capital to fund social programs, with governments

providing a return based on the degree of success. Despite expectations of dramatic growth, the SIB model

has never truly taken hold. Based on the rollout of SIBs in the UK, Israel, and Canada, the paper considers the

challenges encountered by the SIB enterprise as a form of financialised statecraft and identifies three barriers:

(1) resistance to political agendas of state financialisation; (2) clashes between finance and public sector

cultures; (3) financial innovation seen as ‘risk’ and ‘disruption’ to entrenched socio-technical routines. These

barriers reveal tensions both within the state itself and between finance and the public sector, and indicate the

importance of thinking about the limits and failures of state financialisation.

3. 中国央行数字货币（CBDC）：货币与权力关系的评估（China’s central bank digital

currency (CBDC): an assessment of money and power relations）

Luiza Peruffo，南里奥格兰德联邦大学经济与国际关系系教授

André Moreira Cunha，南里奥格兰德联邦大学经济与国际关系系教授

Andrés Ernesto Ferrari Haines，南里奥格兰德联邦大学经济与国际关系系副教授

【摘要】本文反映了中国央行数字货币（CDBC）在货币和权力关系方面的意义，并认为它不会代表

与以美元为中心的国际货币金融体系(IMFS)的断裂。本文结合了三种理论方法——货币性质、货币国

际化和货币等级——构建了一个分析框架，有助于理解货币和国家权力之间的动态关系。该框架强调

了货币主导地位和潜在的货币等级的基本地位，解释了 IMFS 的更广泛配置和演进。虽然中国的经济

114

体量和其货币(实体或数字)的国际使用之间存在巨大的不对称性，但这一矛盾并不一定依赖组合一个

更公平的货币发行的分配机制即要求世界其他地区使用其货币并为其带来经济和政治优势(所谓的

“过度特权”)而解决。

【原文】This article reflects on the meaning of China’s Central Bank Digital Currency (CDBC) with respect

to money and power relations to argue that it will not represent a rupture with the dollar centric international

monetary and financial system (IMFS). It combines three theoretical approaches – on the nature of money, on

currency internationalisation and on currency hierarchy – to build an analytical framework that adds to the

literature that strives to understand the dynamics between money and state power. This framework stresses the

fundamental place of currency dominance and of an underlying currency hierarchy that explains the broader

configuration and evolution of the IMFS. While there is an enormous asymmetry between the economic weight

of China and the international use of its currency (physical or digital), it does not necessarily follow that this

tension will be resolved by assembling a fairer distribution of the economic and political advantages that come

along with issuing a currency that is used by the rest of the world (the so-called ‘exorbitant privilege’).

4.包容还是拉拢？金融领域性别多元化候选人的招聘（Inclusion or co-optation?

Navigating recruitment as a gender diversity candidate in finance Inclusion or cooptation? Navigating recruitment as a gender diversity candidate in finance）Laia

Balcells，乔治城大学政治管理系教授

Alexander Kuo，牛津大学政治与国际关系系及基督堂学院教授

【摘要】在 2008 年金融危机后的十年里，针对性别的多元化和包容性倡议在全球金融中心不断增加。

女权主义政治经济学家批评了争取性别和种族平等的斗争如何通过包容性努力而被拉拢的方式，以及

它们如何主要用于使现有的制度实践合法化。同时，多元化和包容性倡议为新兴的专业人士开辟了反

抗空间，让她们从边缘化的经历中汲取经验、制定批评并反抗不平等的产生过程。在这项研究中，我

借鉴了金融领域中性别多元化项目的实地和访谈研究资料，分析了在新加入行业的人员如何在多元化

方案中发挥笼络吸纳和批评的作用。我参考了 De Jong 和 Kimm（2017）的笼络吸纳（co-optation）研

究议程作为概念参考，展示了在这个特定的制度矩阵中笼络吸纳的机制、效果和行为体的感知是如何

同时发挥作用的。围绕多元化制度实践的断层表明，为金融机构服务的霸权整合还不完整，关于职业、

市场和金融化社会包容性的争论仍在继续。

【原文】In the decade-plus following the financial crisis of 2008, diversity and inclusion initiatives –

especially those targeting gender – have proliferated in global financial centres. Feminist political economists

critique the ways that struggles for gender and racial equality can become co-opted via inclusion endeavours,

and how they may primarily serve to legitimate existing institutional practices. At the same time, diversity and

inclusion initiatives open up counterspace for emerging professionals to draw from experiences of

marginalisation, formulate critiques, and push back against processes that generate inequalities. In this study,

I draw from field-based and interview research on gender diversity programmes in finance to analyse how

dynamics of co-optation and critique play out as recent initiates into the industry navigate diversity offerings.

I refer to De Jong and Kimm’s (2017) research agenda on co-optation as conceptual reference, demonstrating

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how mechanisms, effects, and actor’s perceptions of co-optation play out together in this particular institutional

matrix. The fault lines that emerge around institutional practices of diversity indicate where a hegemonic

incorporation that would serve the financial establishment is incomplete and contestations over the inclusivity

of professions, markets and financialised societies remain.

5. 揭开货币主义的面纱：1970-1985 年美国通货膨胀的分解（Piercing the veil of

monetarism: a decomposition of American inflation, 1970–1985）

Brian Judge，加州大学伯克利分校人类兼容人工智能中心人工智能政策研究员

【摘要】在 20 世纪 70 年代，通货膨胀成为了一种货币现象。十年前，物价上涨被归因于国内和国际

力量的复杂交织，而最近通货膨胀被广泛视为是政府错误政策的后果。最初的党派的斗争口号变成了

社会科学的前提：通货膨胀在 20 世纪 70 年代在美国的历史是由政治胜利者来讲述的。本文通过揭示

几十年来被意识形态埋藏的一组事实，对其进行了还原。通过对通货膨胀统计指数的分解，本文证明

了 20 世纪 70 年代物价上涨是由政治构建的市场中传播的一系列偶然事件共同驱动的。全球可交易商

品价格的大幅上涨与前所未有的利率上调相结合，将消费者价格指数推向了新的高度。通过这些历史

的组合，本文展示了“通货膨胀”及其在 1982 年后的缓解是各种原本不相关的干扰因素的汇合，而

不是沃尔克冲击所彻底颠覆的“过多的货币追逐过少的商品”现象。

【原文】Over the course of the 1970s, inflation became a monetary phenomenon. At the beginning of the

decade, price increases were attributed to a complex intersection of domestic and international forces. By the

end of the decade, inflation was widely seen as a consequence of misguided government policy. What began

as a partisan battle cry became a social scientific premise: the history of inflation in the 1970s in the United

States is told by the political victors. This article recovers a set of facts buried beneath decades of ideological

sedimentation. Through a decomposition of the statistical index of inflation, this article demonstrates that price

increases in the 1970s were driven by a confluence of contingent events propagating through politically

constructed markets. Sharp increases in the prices of tradeable global commodities combined with

unprecedented interest rate hikes to send the Consumer Price Index to new highs. Through these component

histories, the article demonstrates how the aggregate phenomenon of ‘inflation’ and its subsequent remission

after 1982 marked the confluence of otherwise unrelated disruptions rather than ‘too much money chasing too

few goods’ decisively upended by the Volcker shock.

6. 通过比较资本主义框架理解“依附性”：希腊作为依附性市场经济的概念化研究

（Understanding ‘dependency’ through the comparative capitalisms framework:

conceptualisation of Greece as a dependent market economy）

Konrad Sobczyk，曼彻斯特大学政治系助教

【摘要】本文涉及全球政治经济中国家依附性的争论。它从“依附机制”的概念出发，与比较资本主

义(CC)文献（即制度和第三代视角）建立了协同关系。本文通过将“依附性市场经济”这一既定范畴

116

应用于希腊，扩展了资本主义的多样性(VoC)框架。基于金融化作为依赖机制，本文认为，这使希腊

陷入对外债务的依赖地位、欧元区内的依附地位，以及在债权人要求实施改革后脆弱的局面。然而，

由于其资本主义模式的内部历史结构问题，希腊无法将金融化依赖的负面影响降至最低，并且在未来

如果外部依赖被消除，内部准备不足，难以摆脱其外围地位。本文认为，依附理论和比较资本主义文

献之间可以建立概念上的协同关系，可以提供更全面的关于依附性资本主义多样性背景下内部和外部

因素相互作用的解释。

【原文】This article relates to debates about dependency of countries in the global political economy. It

conceptualises dependency by drawing on the concept of ‘mechanisms of dependency’, and builds a synergy

with the Comparative Capitalisms (CC) literature (i.e. institutional and third-generation perspectives). The

article expands the Varieties of Capitalism (VoC) framework by applying the established category of

Dependent Market Economy to Greece. Building on financialisation as a mechanism of dependency, the article

argues this locked Greece into reliance on external debt, dependent position within the Eurozone, as well as

vulnerable situation after reforms demanded by the creditors were implemented. However, due to internal

historical-structural issues with its capitalist model, Greece was unable to minimise the negative impact of

financialised dependence, and is internally weakly prepared to escape from its peripheral status in the future

if external dependence will be removed. The article argues that conceptual synergy between dependency

theory and the CC literature is desirable in order to provide a more holistic account of interaction between

external and internal factors in the context of dependent capitalist varieties.

7. 多维社会冲突与制度变迁（Multidimensional social conflict and institutional

change）

Bruno Amable，日内瓦大学经济与社会历史系教授

Stefano Palombarini，巴黎大学第八大学经济学助理教授

【摘要】本文提出了一种基于社会群体感知利益多样性的社会冲突、制度变革和危机的政治经济学。

多维冲突包括意识形态、制度和政治。社会群体在某个维度上可能处于支配地位或被支配地位，社会

冲突的性质反映了不同社会群体在这些维度上的地位差异。政治稳定取决于是否存在一个占主导地位

的社会集团，即支持执政者的政治行为体的社会联盟。政治行为体实施制度变革是为了寻求支持。危

机与主导社会阵营的瓦解相照应。试图通过重建主导社会阵营来摆脱危机，成功机会有大有小，这取

决于能否找到一种政治策略，使具有不同利益感知的社会群体的期望相容。本文以法国和意大利近几

十年来的经济和政治形势为例，展示了所提出的分析框架如何为社会危机情况下的制度变迁研究提供

参考。

【原文】This paper proposes a political economy of social conflict, institutional change and crises based on

the diversity of perceived interests among social groups. The multidimensional conflict includes ideology,

institutions, and politics. Social groups may be in a dominant or dominated position in one or the other

dimension, and the nature of social conflict reflects the differences in positions of the various social groups in

these dimensions. Political stability hinges on the existence of a dominant social bloc, i.e. a social alliance

supporting the ruling political actors. The implementation of institutional change by political actors is driven

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117

by the search for support. Crisis situations correspond to the rupture of the dominant social bloc. Attempts to

emerge from the crisis with the reconstitution of a dominant social bloc will have more or less chance of

success depending on the possibility of finding a political strategy that can make the expectations of social

groups with different perceived interests compatible. Using examples from the French and Italian economic

and political situations in recent decades, we show how the proposed analytical framework can inform the

study of institutional change in situations of social crisis.

8. 保护还是惩罚债务人？政策制定者关于国家在个人债务治理中的作用的讨

论（Protect or punish debtors? Policymaker discourse on the state’s role in

personal debt governance）

Tomáš Hoření Samec，捷克科学院社会学研究所副研究员

Lucie Trlifajová，捷克科学院社会学研究所研究员

【摘要】个人债务是一种增加个人能动性的工具，但却嵌入了道德和法律框架，将人们构造为个性化

的金融主体。本文旨在通过聚焦个人债务治理模式，丰富有关国家在主体金融化方面的研究。这些治

理模式在政策制定者对国家在个人债务监管中的作用的话语中被构建。本文的论点以捷克共和国为背

景，该国在 2021 年有 10%的成年人面临法律债务强制执行，严重破坏了他们的经济状况。通过分析

84 份议会辩论记录和 32 个与消费者信贷和债务救济法相关的监管影响评估文件，本文展示了债务治

理和国家角色的矛盾和复杂性。尽管实施了两种主要的国家角色——惩罚性和保护性——但政策制定

者的话语形式类似于一种连续体，融合了各种道德逻辑，赋予了多种责任（个人、国家和私人行为者），

并积极协商债务人的应得性类别。本文认为，通过强调金融教育作为解决市场失灵（掠夺性贷款）的

工具，金融化的逻辑和结构得到了重申，尽管这为重新谈判和对此类国家职能的潜在抵制留下了一定

的话语空间。

【原文】Personal debt is a device increasing one’s agency but embedded within moral and legal frameworks

that constructs people as individualised financial subjects. This article aims to enrich research on the state role

in (subject) financialisation through a focus on personal debt governance modes as constructed in policymaker

discourse on the state role in personal debt regulation. Our argument is contextualised in the Czech Republic,

where, in 2021, 10 per cent of the adult population faced legal debt enforcement, significantly disrupting their

economic situation. Through an analysis of 84 parliamentary debate transcripts and 32 regulatory impact

assessment documents related to consumer credit and debt relief laws, we illustrate the ambivalence and

complexity of debt governance and state roles. Although two main state roles were enacted – punitive and

protective – the policymaker discourse forms a continuum of sorts, blending various moral logics, ascribing

multiple responsibilities (individual, state and private actors) and intensively negotiating the category of debtor

deservingness. We argue that by accenting financial education as a tool to solve perceived market failures

(predatory lending), the financialised logic and structures are reaffirmed, albeit leaving certain discursive

spaces for renegotiation and potential resistance against such state functions.

9. 从外部救助到内部纾困：解释爱尔兰和塞浦路斯国际金融援助请求的多样

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化反应（From Bail-out to Bail-in: explaining the variegated responses to the

international financial aid requests of Ireland and Cyprus）

Dimitris Papadimitriou，曼彻斯特大学政治系教授

Adonis Pegasiou，欧洲管理与金融学院学术总监

【摘要】2010 年爆发的欧元区金融危机促使其部分成员国请求其欧盟伙伴提供援助。欧洲层面对这些

请求的反应是与国际货币基金组织协调进行的，但并不一定以统一的步调。本文比较了爱尔兰和塞浦

路斯的调整方案。尽管它们在独立变量（当地经济状况）上相似，但爱尔兰和塞浦路斯方案的设计（因

变量）存在根本性的区别，其中塞浦路斯引入了存款人直接损失的“转股债券条款”。本文旨在解释

这一关键政策偏离是如何形成的，以及是什么条件使其引入成为可能。通过考察危机响应措施的时间

演变，本文特别关注四个解释主题：（i）时间作为谈判（劣）优势；（ii）时间作为政策学习平台；

（iii）时间作为过去政策选择的证明（路径依赖性）；以及（iv）时间作为未来政策选择的标志（路

径设置）。

【原文】The financial crisis that hit the Eurozone in 2010 drove a number of its members request assistance

from their EU partners. The reaction to these requests at the European level came in coordination with the

IMF, but not necessarily in a uniform manner. This article compares the adjustment programmes of Ireland

and Cyprus. Despite their similarity on the independent variable (local economic conditions), the design of the

Irish and Cypriot programmes (the dependent variable) differed fundamentally, not least because of the

introduction of the bail-in clause in Cyprus, involving direct loses for depositors. This article seeks to explain

how this key policy departure came to be and what were the conditions that made its introduction possible by

examining the temporal evolution of the crisis response and focusing in particular on four explanatory themes:

(i) time as a negotiating (dis)advantage; (ii) time as a platform for policy learning; (iii) time as a justifier of

past policy choices (path dependency) and (iv) time as a signifier of future policy choices (path setting).

10. 波兰尼在中国农村：超越双向运动（Polanyi in rural China: beyond the

double movement）

Rowan Alcock，中国农业大学人文与发展学院研究员

【摘要】本文阐明了使用波兰尼理论审视中国农村历史轨迹的方法。本文批评了使用波兰尼的双向运

动概念分析国家-社会主义时期的做法，认为由于双向运动概念是明确用于分析土地和劳动力市场化

的资本主义体系的，因此无法直接运用于国家-社会主义时期。本文进一步指出，由于双向运动必然涉

及超越资本主义体系进入社会主义的可能性，因此在国家-社会主义背景下使用双向运动的解释力进

一步受到削弱。本文探讨了毛时期的中国，建议使用波兰尼在讨论苏联时使用的词汇来审视这个时期。

不过，本文支持使用波兰尼的双向运动概念来审视 1984 年后的中国，因为这个时期市场对社会的渗

透逐渐加深。本文进一步认为，在使用双向运动来审视任何具有重要市场渗透的体系时，学者应该认

识到双向运动的辩证过程。这种辩证的阅读表明，双向运动对社会具有破坏性，其内部矛盾创造了进

步和退步的可能性。本文探讨了中国新农村重建运动作为潜在的进步可能性。

【原文】This article clarifies the use of Polanyian theory to interrogate rural China’s historical trajectory. It

critiques the use of Polanyi’s double movement concept to analyse state-socialist periods arguing that because

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the double movement concept was explicitly created to interrogate capitalist systems, in which land and labour

were marketized, it cannot be transposed onto state-socialist periods. This article further argues that as the

double movement necessarily entails the possibility of transcending a capitalist system to socialism, the double

movement’s explanatory power is further undermined when used within a state-socialist context. This includes

the context of Maoist China which this article explores. This article suggests using the vocabulary Polanyi

employs when discussing Soviet Russia to interrogate the Maoist period. However, it supports the use of

Polanyi’s double movement concept to interrogate post-1984 China as this period demonstrates increasing

market penetration of society. The article further argues that when using the double movement to interrogate

any system with significant market penetration scholars ought recognise the double movement’s dialectical

process. This dialectical reading suggests the double movement is destructive to society and its internal

contradiction creates progressive and regressive possibilities. This article explores the Chinese New Rural

Reconstruction Movement as a potential progressive possibility.

【编译：朱嘉成】

【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

《冲突解决杂志》（Journal of Conflict Resolution）

Journal of Conflict Resolution，Vol.67，No.10，2023

1. 北极冲击：利用气候变化检验资源竞争理论（Arctic Shock: Utilizing Climate

Change to Test a Theory of Resource Competition）

Jonathan Markowitz，南加州大学国际关系学助理教授

《冲突解决杂志》（Journal of Conflict Resolution）是一

份关于人类冲突的社会科学研究和理论的跨学科杂志。

该杂志主要关注国际冲突，但也探讨了各种国家、群体

间和人际冲突。该期刊 2022 年的影响因子为 3.1，在国

际关系的 96 种期刊中排名第 19。

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【摘要】为什么一些国家会动用军事力量来寻求对资源的控制，而另一些国家却不会？传统观点认为，

资源稀缺的国家应该最有兴趣确保对资源的控制。本文认为，在现有条件下，事实恰恰相反。不是资

源稀缺的国家对使用军事手段寻求更多资源更感兴趣，而是资源丰富并依赖开采这些资源获得收入的

国家对此更感兴趣。本文通过一个自然实验来验证这一反直觉的观点，该实验分析了 2007 年北极地

区资源暴露后各国对外来冲击的反应。本文采用了原始数据来衡量冲击前后各国在北极地区军事存在

的变化并发现，是依赖性而非稀缺性解释了各国如何应对冲击。这些发现加深了对资源竞争原因和气

候变化的地缘政治影响的理解。

【原文】Why do some states project military force to seek control of resources, while others do not?

Conventional wisdom asserts that resource-scarce states should have the strongest interest in securing control

over resources. Counter-intuitively, I argue that, under existing conditions, the opposite is true. It is not

resource-scarce states that will be more interested in militarily seeking additional resources, but rather states

that are resource-abundant and dependent on income from extracting those resources. I test this proposition by

leveraging a natural experiment that analyzes how states reacted to an exogenous shock that exposed resources

in the Arctic in 2007. I employ original data that measures the change in states’ Arctic military presence before

and after the shock. I find that dependence, not scarcity, explains how states responded to the shock. The

findings enhance our understanding of the causes of resource competition and the geopolitical implications of

climate change.

2. 应对不确定性：隐蔽性对支持网络和动能攻击报复的重要性（Responding to

Uncertainty: The Importance of Covertness in Support for Retaliation to Cyber and

Kinetic Attacks）

Kathryn Hedgecock，纽约州西点军校国际事务助理教授

Lauren Sukin，伦敦政治经济学院菲兰美国中心国际关系助理教授

【摘要】本文研究了网络攻击的升级动态。有两种主要理论试图解释网络攻击互动状态。首先，“基

于手段”理论认为攻击类型决定反应；与动能攻击相比，网络攻击不太可能引发攻击升级。第二，“基

于效果”理论认为，攻击的实质性后果决定了报复的可能性。本文提出了第三种观点，认为攻击的隐

蔽性对其升级倾向影响最大。本文发现隐蔽性的两个特征会影响对报复手段的支持：归因的确定性和

归因的时机。本文使用调查实验，同时改变攻击的手段、效果、时机和归因的确定性，来评估公众对

报复的支持度，最终没有发现基于效果的方法的证据，相反，本文发现无论攻击的规模如何，公众对

报复的支持率都很高。因此，攻击的隐蔽性是影响报复支持率的最大因素。

【原文】This paper investigates the escalation dynamics of cyber attacks. Two main theories have been

advanced. First, “means-based” theory argues attack type determines response; cyber attacks are less likely to

escalate than kinetic attacks. Second, “effects-based” theory argues an attack’s material consequences

determine the likelihood of retaliation. We advance a third perspective, arguing that the covertness of an attack

has the largest effect on its propensity towards escalation. We identify two characteristics of covertness that

affect support for retaliation: the certainty of attribution and its timing. We use a survey experiment to assess

public support for retaliation, while varying the means, effects, timing, and attribution certainty of attacks. We

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find no evidence for the effects-based approach, instead finding high levels of support for retaliation regardless

of an attack’s scale. We find that the most significant contributor to support for retaliation is an attack’s

covertness.

3. 对经济制裁的破坏、物质力量和制度支持（Sanctions-Busting, Material Power, and

Institutional Support for Economic Sanctions）

Jin Mun Jeong，密苏里大学政治学系博士

【摘要】国际机构在制裁成功中发挥着关键作用。然而，人们对制裁方何时动员机制性制裁以及如何

促使国际机构支持其制裁努力知之甚少。当制裁发起国预计第三方国家会参与破坏制裁时，发起国可

能需要机构支持。本文提出，当发起国面临与对象国保持联盟关系的第三方对手时，该国会预期制裁

遭到破坏，潜在的破坏制裁者的存在可能会导致其寻求机构支持。此外，发起国应拥有强大的物质力

量，以促使国际机构的成员国批准制裁努力。本文分析了 1951-2005 年间的 1038 次制裁事件来评估

其理论主张。研究结果证明：当制裁方面临潜在的制裁破坏者时，他们会寻求机构支持，而他们的努

力能否成功部分取决于他们的物质力量。

【原文】International institutions play a key role in sanctions success. However, little is known about when

senders mobilize institutional sanctions and how they induce international institutions to support their

sanctioning efforts. Senders may need institutional support when they expect third-party states to engage in

sanctions-busting. I suggest that senders anticipate sanctions-busting when they face third-party rivals which

also have an alliance tie with targets. The presence of such potential sanctions busters may lead senders to

seek institutional support. Also, senders should possess substantial material power to induce member states of

international institutions to approve the sanctioning efforts. I assess the theoretical claim of this research by

analyzing 1,038 sanctions episodes over the period 1951–2005. The findings support my argument that senders

pursue institutional support when they face potential sanctions busters, and the success of their efforts partly

depend on their material power.

4. 自下而上的全球治理：地区制裁作为联合国制裁的驱动力（Global Governance

From Below: Regional Sanctions as Drivers of UN Sanctions）

Inken von Borzyskowski，牛津大学国际关系教授

Clara Portela，西班牙瓦伦西亚大学政治学讲师

Sverrir Steinsson，乔治华盛顿大学政治科学系博士生

【摘要】众所周知，联合国安理会（UNSC）实施制裁是有选择性的。许多危机因危及和平与安全而

符合联合国安理会制裁的条件，但联合国只对少数危机实施了制裁。联合国安理会制裁的选择性通常

被解释为冲突的激烈程度或安理会常任理事国的利益主导。本文提出了第三种补充性解释：地区组织

预先存在的制裁。本文认为，联合国安理会有动机制裁已经受到地区组织制裁的国家，因为地区制裁

体现了周边国家对这些制裁合法性的共识，并使安理会对制裁的实施感到放心。本文通过对原始数据

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的统计分析、文本分析、案例研究和访谈，得出以下论点：地区制裁，特别是周边国家组成的地区组

织颁布的制裁增加了联合国安理会通过制裁的可能性。本研究推动了有关制裁、冲突解决和政权复杂

性的研究。

【原文】The imposition of sanctions by the UN Security Council (UNSC) is notoriously selective. Many

crises have qualified for UNSC sanctions by endangering peace and security, yet the UN has imposed sanctions

in only a few. Selectivity in UNSC sanctions is conventionally explained by conflict intensity or the interests

of the Council’s permanent members. Complementing these accounts, we document a third explanation: preexisting sanctions by regional organizations. We argue that the UNSC has incentives to sanction countries

which are already under sanctions by regional organizations because regional sanctions embody neighborhood

consensus on the legitimacy of these sanctions and reassure the Council about implementation. Statistical

analyses of original data, text analyses, a case study, and interviews strongly support our argument: regional

sanctions increase the likelihood of UNSC sanctions adoption, particularly when these are enacted by regional

organizations composed of neighboring states. This study advances research on sanctions, conflict resolution,

and regime complexity.

5. 联合国安理会选举作为决议遵从的激励（UN Security Council Elections as an

Incentive for Compliance）

Johann Caro-Burnett，广岛大学人文与社会科学研究生院助理教授

Eric Weese，东京大学社会科学研究所助理教授

【摘要】标准经济理论认为，联合国对其成员国提出的高成本要求应该得到回报。换言之，如果奖励

没有足够的吸引力，各国就不会遵守这些要求。本文研究了联合国提供的奖励是否是安理会席位。本

文提出的经验证据表明，要承担安理会决议更高要求的国家更有可能当选。此外，尽管各国在当选前

会遵守决议，但当选后遵守决议的情况会减少。最后，本文表明，最近未进入安全理事会并因此即将

当选的国家会被提出更多要求。

【原文】Standard economic theory would predict that costly demands placed by the United Nations on its

members should be rewarded. Similarly, when rewards are not attractive enough, countries are not expected

to comply with such demands. In this paper, we study whether the rewards offered by the United Nations are

seats at the Security Council. We show empirically that countries that have greater demands placed upon them

by Security Council resolutions are more likely to be elected. Furthermore, although countries comply with

resolutions leading up to their election, compliance decreases after they are elected. Finally, we show that

countries that have not been in the Security Council recently, and thus are due for election, have additional

requests made of them.

6. 论促进和平（Contributing to Peace）

Gautam Bose，新南威尔士大学商学院助理教授

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【摘要】竞争理论分析了行为体将资源用于消费或占有性冲突的无政府经济行为，并探讨了在均衡状

态下和平或冲突占上风的条件。历史表明，在这种情况下，国王、独裁者或国家等维持和平者会内生

地出现。本文分析了一个模型，在这个模型中，每个潜在的竞争者首先可以选择向中立的和平维持者

提供一些资源，然后在剩余资源中调配武器和消费品。如果其中一个竞争者随后攻击了另一个竞争者，

那么和平维持者就会把自己的资源与被攻击者的资源结合起来。本文的研究表明，在资源分配不平等

程度减轻的情况下，对维持和平的贡献是积极的，并且会带来均衡的和平。除了在很小的范围内，这

些均衡比纯粹“塔洛克竞赛”的相应均衡帕累托更优。当分配过于不均时，就不会有任何贡献，冲突

就会在均衡状态下发生。

【原文】Contest theory analyses an anarchic economy where agents use resources for consumption or

acquisitive conflict, and explores conditions under which peace or conflict prevail in equilibrium. History

suggests that peacekeepers in the shape of kings, dictators or states arise endogenously in such circumstances.

I analyse a model where each of the potential contestants first has the option of contributing some resources

to a neutral peacekeeper, and then allocates her remaining resources between arms and consumption. If one of

the contestants subsequently attacks the other, then the peacekeeper joins its resources with the agent that is

attacked. I show that, for less unequal resource distributions, contribution to peacekeeping is positive and leads

to peace in equilibrium. These equilibria are pareto-superior to the corresponding equilibria of the pure Tullock

contest except in a narrow range. When the distribution is too unequal, no contributions are made and conflict

occurs in equilibrium.

7. 象征性冲突解决与群体内偏向（Symbolic Conflict Resolution and Ingroup

Favoritism）

Sergi Martínez，普林斯顿大学和平与正义中心博士

Vicente Valentim，牛津大学纳菲尔德学院政治学博士后

Elias Dinas，意大利欧洲大学学院政治与社会科学系教授

【摘要】象征性冲突解决方式对国内有何影响？本文通过研究一个没有物质利害关系（对一方而言）

但具有高度象征意义的争端来孤立象征性冲突的影响：《普雷斯帕协议》，即结束了关于前南马其顿

（后被命名为北马其顿）名称的争端。希腊人反对这个名称，因为古马其顿遗产是他们民族认同的核

心。根据社会认同理论，本文预计这种对群体独特性的威胁会增加民族主义情绪。本文利用雅典和塞

萨洛尼基建筑物外墙展示旗帜的原始数据集（并将其与里斯本进行了比较），发现协议签署后希腊城

市的国旗数量有所增加。在希腊马其顿大区的首府塞萨洛尼基，这种效应更为明显，因为那里的身份

威胁更为突出。本文还发现，该条约使选民，尤其是居住在马其顿地区的选民右翼化。

【原文】What are the domestic consequences of symbolic conflict resolution? We isolate the effect of

symbolic conflict by looking into a dispute with no material stakes (for one side), but high symbolic ones: the

Prespa Agreement, which ended the dispute on the name of FYROM, thenceforth named North Macedonia.

Greeks opposed this name because the ancient Macedonian heritage is central to their national identity. Based

on social identity theory, we expect this threat to the group’s distinctiveness to increase nationalist sentiment.

Using an original dataset of flags displayed in the façade of buildings in Athens and Thessaloniki, which we

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compare to Lisbon, we find an increase in national flags in the Greek cities after the Agreement. The effect is

stronger in Thessaloniki, Greek Macedonia’s capital, where the identity threat was more pronounced. We

also find that the treaty shifted voters to the right, especially those residing in the region of Macedonia.

8. 过度武力还是装甲克制？内战中的政府机械化与平民伤亡（Excessive Force or

Armored Restraint? Government Mechanization and Civilian Casualties in Civil

Conflict）

Ryan Van Wie，西点军校国际事务教官

Jacob Walden，密歇根大学政治学博士

【摘要】政府平叛过程中机械化程度的提高是否会导致更高水平的平民意外伤亡？有关近期冲突中平

民意外伤亡的现有研究主要集中在空袭方面，但有关地面部队反叛乱力量结构的研究仍未涉及这一问

题。然而，伊拉克的许多反叛乱实践者都提到了机械化部队在提供精确火力以限制平民伤亡方面的有

效性。本文提出了装甲克制理论，认为机械化部队的装甲保护增强了士兵在做出使用致命武力的相应

选择时的决策空间。当这种增强的决策空间与系统地遵守战时法原则和非战斗人员豁免权规范的部队

相结合时，就会产生装甲克制，从而减少国内冲突中由政府造成的平民伤亡。本文利用伊拉克的微观

数据检验了这一理论，发现机械化部队带来的平民伤亡水平明显较低。

【原文】Does increasing counterinsurgent mechanization result in higher levels of unintentional civilian

casualties? Existing research on unintentional civilian victimization in recent conflicts has focused on air

strikes, but this question remains unexplored in research examining counterinsurgent force structure for ground

units. However, a host of counterinsurgency practitioners in Iraq have cited the mechanized forces’

effectiveness in delivering precision fires that limit civilian casualties. We propose an armored restraint theory,

suggesting that mechanized crews’ armored protection enhances soldiers’ decision space when making the

consequential choice to employ lethal force. When this enhanced decision space is combined with units that

systematically respect jus in bello principles and non-combatant immunity norms, it results in armored restraint,

which may reduce government-caused civilian casualties in civil conflicts. We test this theory using microdata from Iraq and find mechanized units are associated with significantly lower civilian casualty levels

compared to dismounted units.

【编译：杨佳霖】

【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

Journal of Conflict Resolution，Vol.60，No.4，July 2023

2024 年第 1 期（总第 13 期）

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1. 国际直接投资对国内恐怖主义的双刃剑作用（The Double-Edged Sword of Foreign

Direct Investment on Domestic Terrorism）

Glen Biglaiser，北德克萨斯大学政治科学系教授

Lance Y Hunter，奥古斯塔大学社会科学系教授

Ronald J McGauvran，田纳西理工大学社会学与政治科学系助理教授

【摘要】本文研究了国际直接投资（FDI）对国内恐怖主义的影响。通过对 114 个国家，从 1991 至

2017 年跨国的时间序列分析，并运用了结构方程模型对一些中介因素进行测试，本文发现 FDI 对国

内恐怖主义的影响取决于东道国的经济发展水平。对于高收入水平的东道国来说，FDI 增进了经济发

展和全球一体化，同时促进繁荣，增加反恐资源，并减少了助长恐怖主义的经济不满。相反，对低收

入水平的东道国来说，FDI 的增加助长了国内恐怖主义，因为它加剧了社会中传统和现代因素之间的

冲突，引起经济歧视并增强了对经济不安全的看法，从而导致针对国家的不满。本文的研究结果表明

FDI 的流入与国内恐怖主义之间存在曲线关系，FDI 在促进东道国经济发展和增加国内恐怖主义之间

会产生双刃剑的效果。

【原文】This paper studies the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestic terrorism. Using a crossnational, time-series analysis of 114 countries from 1991–2017, and employing structural equation modeling

to test a number of mediating factors, we find that the impact of FDI on domestic terrorism depends on the

host state’s level of economic development. For host countries at higher-income levels, FDI boosts economic

development and global integration promoting prosperity, increasing counterterrorism resources, and reducing

the economic grievances that foster terrorism. Conversely, for lower-income host countries, increased FDI

fuels higher domestic terrorism, as it intensifies clashes between traditional and modern elements within

society, raises economic discrimination, heightens perceptions of economic insecurity, and subsequently leads

to grievances directed against the state. Our results indicate a curvilinear relationship between FDI inflows

and domestic terrorism, suggesting that FDI produces a double-edged sword between promoting economic

development and increasing domestic terrorism in host states.

2. 有组织的犯罪与国际直接投资：来自墨西哥犯罪集团的证据（Organized Crime and

Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence From Criminal Groups in Mexico）

Ana Carolina Garriga，埃塞克斯大学政治管理系教授

Brian J. Phillips，埃塞克斯大学政治管理系副教授、墨西哥城经济研究和文献中心附属教授

【摘要】发展中国家中有组织的犯罪如何影响国际直接投资（FDI）？一些研究考察了犯罪对 FDI 的

影响，如凶杀率。然而，学者对有组织的犯罪如何影响 FDI 却知之甚少。本文研究了 2000 年至 2008

年墨西哥各州的有组织犯罪和 FDI 情况。该案例的重要性在于，墨西哥是全球最大的国际直接投资目

的地之一。同时，墨西哥近年来的犯罪暴力已造成数十万人死亡，学者们也致力于了解暴力的广泛影

响。本文认为有组织的犯罪竞争，并非一般的犯罪，会影响投资者的决策。通过对关于犯罪组织区域

的原始数据进行分析发现，犯罪集团数量较多与新的 FDI 水平较低有关。其他犯罪指标，如凶杀率或

犯罪率，与外国投资无关。

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【原文】How does organized crime affect foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries? Some

research examines the effects of crime, such as homicide rates, on FDI. However, we know little about how

organized crime in particular might affect such investment. This paper examines organized crime and FDI in

Mexican states between 2000 and 2018. This case is important because Mexico is one of the top global

recipients of FDI. At the same time, criminal violence has killed hundreds of thousands of people in Mexico

in recent years, and scholars seek to understand the violence’s wider effects. We explain how organized crime

competition, as opposed to crime generally, should shape investors’ decisions. Analyses using original data

on criminal organization territory find that higher numbers of criminal groups are associated with lower levels

of new FDI. Other measures of crime, such as homicide rates or crime rates, are not associated with foreign

investment.

3. 社会嵌入与避免抗议：来自中国的证据（Social Embeddedness and Protest

Avoidance: Evidence from China）

庄梅茜，复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院政治学系讲师

王正绪，浙江大学公共管理学院政治学系教授

栗潇远，同济大学政治与国际关系学院助理教授

【摘要】社会资本被普遍认为有助于动员抗议活动。然而，本文研究的是社会资本是否及如何减少个

人加入抗议活动的倾向。通过分析北京的流动人口调查数据，本文发现社会资本在当地社交网络更好

地嵌入，能降低参与抗议活动的可能性。本文的理由是，从结构上来讲，嵌入当地网络提供了获得支

持和援助的途径，降低了通过破坏性手段解决问题的吸引力。从心理上讲，这种嵌入减轻了相对剥夺

的感觉，减少了这种感觉不断累积并最终转化为抗议行为的可能性。回归和结构方程模型证实了本文

的假设，同时还能够运用一个不同的、更大的跨国数据集来检验本研究结果的稳健性。

【原文】Social capital is generally believed to facilitate protest mobilization. We examine, however, whether

and how it might reduce an individual’s tendency to join a protest. Analyzing survey data of a migrant

population in Beijing, China’s capital, we find that social capital operating as better embeddedness in local

social networks lowers the likelihood of protest participation. We reason that, structurally, embeddedness in

local networks provides access to support and assistance, reducing the attractiveness of disruptive means of

problem-solving. Psychologically, such embeddedness mitigates the feeling of relative deprivation, reducing

the possibility of such feelings accumulating and eventually translating into protesting actions. Regressions

and structural equation models confirm our hypotheses, and we are also able to check the robustness of our

findings with a different, much larger, cross-national dataset.

4. 多数成员的脱嵌式认同：波兰天主教徒的案例（Dis-Embedded Identity of Majority

Members: The Case of Catholics in Poland）

Julian Paffrath，基尔大学社会心理学与政治心理学系副研究员

Bernd Simon，基尔大学社会心理学与政治心理学系教授

2024 年第 1 期（总第 13 期）

127

【摘要】本文中我们关注了多数成员中认同脱嵌的过程（与相关上级集体内认同相比，更强调及优先

关注特定的次级集体内认同），并检验了潜在的因果。为此，本文对波兰天主教徒展开了调查研究。

我们假设相较于社会对天主教徒的尊重，群体内的尊重更有利于预测认同脱嵌，尤其是在缺乏社会尊

重的条件下。我们进一步假设了认同脱嵌会导致积极追求霸权。这些假设主要基于霍内斯的认同理论

和特纳的自我分类理论。采用纵向研究设计和潜在变量建模，我们获得了对假设的支撑证据。并且讨

论了对进一步研究的影响，特别是对多元化社会中的群体间关系和政治的影响。

【原文】In this article, we focus on the process of dis-embedded identification (the accentuation and

prioritization of the identification with a particular subordinate ingroup relative to the identification with the

relevant superordinate ingroup) among majority members and examine possible antecedents and consequences.

To this end, we conducted research with Catholics in Poland. We hypothesized societal respect for Catholics

would negatively predict dis-embedded identification, whereas intragroup respect would positively predict

dis-embedded identification — especially under the condition of lacking societal respect. We further

hypothesized dis-embedded identification to positively predict the pursuit of hegemony. These hypotheses are

mainly based on Honneth's theory of recognition and Turner's self-categorization theory. Employing a

longitudinal research design and latent variable modeling, we obtained supporting evidence for our hypotheses.

The implications for further research, especially on intergroup relations and politics in pluralizing societies,

are discussed.

5. 包容，承认和群体间的比较：权力共享制度对不满的影响（Inclusion, Recognition,

and Inter-Group Comparisons: The Effects of Power-Sharing Institutions on

Grievances）

Andreas Juon，苏黎世联邦理工学院国际冲突研究组博士后

【摘要】现有的证据表明权力共享能通过减轻少数族群的不满来减少他们对国内冲突的参与。然而，

权力共享应如何以及多大程度上的制度化仍旧未明。此外，对申诉机制的直接态度证据也较少。针对

这些学术空白，本文认为由宪法规定并明确承认少数群体的全体的权力共享能有效缓解他们的不满。

然而，同时也强调群体间比较的重要性。这意味着，与同一国家内的“同辈”和跨国亲属人口相比，

全体的权力共享程度较低的少数族群应有更高的不满，无论其绝对程度如何。使用大量的调查数据，

我在一系列分层多级模型中测试我的假设。通过强调制度设计的重要性，本文的研究结果对多种族社

会的政策以及更普遍的关于调和和不满的学术文献具有重大影响。

【原文】Extant evidence suggests that power-sharing reduces the participation of minorities in civil conflict

by alleviating their grievances. Yet, it remains unclear how and to what degree power-sharing should be

institutionalized. Moreover, direct attitudinal evidence for the grievance mechanism remains rare. Addressing

these gaps, I argue that corporate power-sharing which is constitutionally-enshrined and explicitly recognizes

minorities most strongly alleviates their grievances. However, it simultaneously accentuates the importance of

relative inter-group comparisons. This means that minorities with a lower relative degree of corporate powersharing than their 'peers' in the same country and transnational kin population should have higher grievances,

irrespective of its absolute level. Using an extensive combination of mass survey data, I test my expectations

128

in a series of hierarchical multi-level models. By highlighting the importance of institutional design, my results

have significant implications for policy in multi-ethnic societies and for the scholarly literature on

accommodation and grievances more generally.

6. 叛乱集团的招募：介绍反叛集团的吸引力和激励数据库（Recruiting Rebels:

Introducing the Rebel Appeals and Incentives Dataset）

Michael J. Soules，休斯顿大学政治学系助理教授、海军研究生院国防分析系的唐纳德·比尔国防研

究员

【摘要】现有大量的文献研究反叛团体如何招募平民。其中大部分的文献主要关注物质和意识形态的

吸引力对动员新兵中的作用。然而，尽管对招募过程的重要性抱有预期，但目前缺乏关于许多跨部门

团体有说服力的招募行为的数据，因此难以检验关于反叛团体招募的理论所产生的各种影响。为了填

补这一空白，本文开发了一项原始数据，即反叛分子的吸引力和激励数据集（RAID），其中包含 1989

年至 2011 年间 232 个个武装组织的信息。RAID 不仅详细说明了反叛组织做出的不同类型的招募呼

吁，还详细说明了他们在多大程度上依赖意识形态诉求（相对于物质激励）进行招募。为了证明数据

集的价值，本文使用 RAID 来测试从现有文献中得出的关于叛军招募和战时强奸的两个假设。

【原文】There is an extensive body of literature examining how rebel groups recruit civilians. Much of this

scholarly work focuses on the role of material and ideological appeals in mobilizing recruits. However, despite

expectations about the importance of recruitment processes, there is currently a lack of data on the persuasive

recruitment practices of a large cross-section of groups, making it difficult to test a variety of implications

stemming from theories about armed group recruitment. To remedy this, I developed original data—the Rebel

Appeals and Incentives Dataset (RAID)—which contains information on 232 militant groups for the period

1989 to 2011. RAID details not only the specific types of recruitment appeals groups make, but the degree to

which they rely on ideological appeals, relative to material incentives, for recruitment. To demonstrate the

value of the dataset, I employ RAID to test two hypotheses about rebel recruitment and wartime rape derived

from existing literature.

【编译：朱嘉成】

【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

2024 年第 1 期（总第 13 期）

129

《欧洲国际关系杂志》 （ European Journal of International

Relations）

European Journal of International Relations，Vol.29，No.4，2023

1. 在国际关系中实现认识论正义：妇女与国际思想史（Doing epistemic justice in

International Relations: women and the history of international thought）

Kimberly Hutchings，伦敦玛丽女王大学政治与国际关系学院教授

【摘要】本文通过对范尼·弗恩·安德鲁斯（Fannie Fern Andrews）和艾米·阿什伍德·加维（Amy

Ashwood Garvey）国际思想的回顾，以及与女性主义认识论的对话，探讨了在国际关系研究中实现认

识论正义的意义和含义。该文章认为，实现认识论上的正义需要超越对被排斥声音的恢复性正义，即

纠正历史记录；包容正义，即在学科对话中加入以前被排斥的声音；变革正义，即边缘化和被压迫者

的观点成为认识论权威和新知识的来源。在所有这些正义之上，认识论正义要求实践一种特殊的认识

论集体责任，它积极地、反思性地认识到并参与到当时和现在的国际思想生产中知识者、世界和受众

之间的权力关系。

【原文】This article examines the meaning and implications of doing epistemic justice in the study of

International Relations through the prism of the recovery of the international thought of Fannie Fern Andrews

and Amy Ashwood Garvey and in dialogue with feminist epistemology. It argues that doing epistemic justice

involves going beyond restorative justice for excluded voices in which the historical record is set straight,

inclusionary justice in which previously excluded voices are added to disciplinary conversations, and

transformative justice, in which the perspectives of the marginalised and oppressed become sources of

epistemic authority and new knowledge. Over and above all of these things, doing epistemic justice entails

practising a particular kind of epistemic collective responsibility, which actively and reflexively recognises

and engages with power-laden relations between knowers, worlds and audiences in the production of

international thought, then and now.

《欧洲国际关系杂志》（European Journal of International

Relations）广泛地代表了已在欧洲发展的国际关系领域。

自 1995 年创刊以来，该杂志已成为国际关系学界一个重

要而独立的声音。它以其欧洲起源为基础，经过二十多年

的发展，已成为国际关系界最佳成果的缩影，包括前沿的

理论辩论、当代和过去的学术热点以及理论丰富的实证分

析。

130

2. 关于真相的问题：事实、空间和时间如何影响国际关系对话（The question of truth: how

facts, space and time shape conversations in IR）

Bernardo Teles Fazendeiro，科英布拉大学经济学院助理教授

【摘要】在国际关系（IR）中，真理经常被引用，也经常受到质疑。由于多元化的增加，真理不再被

认为是理所当然的，一些人认为相对主义即将来临。与此同时，尽管真理的含义并不确定，但研究和

事实验证却依然存在，因为研究结果在国际关系中仍有激烈的争论，有时会导致学者之间根深蒂固、

几乎不可调和的争论。本文认为，面对潜在的相对主义，弥合真理主张的一种方法是区分意义性的真

理和事实性的真理。事实性真理用来评估（原始）数据是否有资格作为数据，而意义性真理——大多

数 IR 辩论所依据的真理——是作者解释的基础；它根据特定的空间和时间概念揭示了现实的各个方

面。将 IR 政策对话视为意义性真理而事实性真相，可以让学者们不再坚持相对主义。文章还指出，

将意义性与事实验证相混淆的对话——如 20 世纪 90 年代自由制度主义者与结构现实主义者之间的

争论——会导致学术固化，无法解决问题。不同的时空假设往往互不相容。因此，这种有意义的对话

与其说是关于事实的可验证性，不如说是关于遏制物化和扩大政治判断的视角。

【原文】Truth is as regularly invoked in International Relations (IR) as it is contested. Due to increased

plurality, truth is no longer taken for granted, with some suggesting that relativism is on its way. At the same

time, despite uncertainty as to the meaning of truth, research and factual verification persists, as findings

remain hotly debated in IR, sometimes leading to entrenched, almost irreconcilable debates among scholars.

This essay suggests that one way in which to bridge truth claims in the face of potential, albeit unwarranted,

relativism is to distinguish between meaningful and factual truth. Factual truth is about assessing whether (raw)

data qualifies as data at all, while meaningful truth – upon which most debates in IR are based – grounds our

interpretation; it reveals reality’s various facets according to specific spatial and temporal concepts. Viewing

conversations in IR as concerned with meaningful as opposed to factual truth allows scholars to lay relativism

to rest. The essay also claims that conversations that confuse meaningfulness for factual verification – as in

the debates between liberal institutionalists and structural realists in the 1990s – lead to scholarly entrenchment

with no resolution in sight. Distinct temporal and spatial assumptions are often incompatible. As a result, such

meaningful conversations are less about factual verifiability than about containing reification and enlarging

the perspectives with which to exercise political judgement.

3. 国际关系中的抽象：论批判性知识生产中跨性别者、同性恋者和属下群体的神秘化

（Abstractions in International Relations: on the mystification of trans, queer, and

subaltern life in critical knowledge production）

Alexander Stoffel，英国伦敦政治经济学院方法论系研究员

Ida Roland Birkvad，英国伦敦政治经济学院

【摘要】本文指出了当今学术知识生产中常见的神秘化过程：将从属群体仅仅作为学术理论化的隐喻

或修辞对象。当学者们问及跨性别群体在跨国性方面能给作者带来什么启示时，当作者被邀请反思现

2024 年第 1 期（总第 13 期）

131

代战争中可能存在的同性恋问题时，或者当民族国家被描述为次级民族国家时，作者都会目睹这一过

程。在关于“传统”国际关系的国家治理、移民、安全等问题的学术研究中，跨性别者、同性恋者和

属下群体经常被神秘化。这种倾向使学者们无法研究塑造和组织他们的生活和历史的社会关系，从而

起到了神秘化的作用。本文分为三个部分。首先，为了理解这一自我神秘化过程的起源和逻辑，本文

通过斯图尔特·霍尔（Stuart Hall）回到了卡尔·马克思关于抽象的方法论著作。本文区分了抽象的迷

信化和抽象的具体化，从而为当代国际关系学术界正式确立马克思的方法论做出了贡献。其次，本文

探讨了抽象化的主体地位是如何在国际研究的三个领域中被盲目迷信化的：跨性别研究、酷儿理论和

属下研究。第三，在阐述了对这种神秘化做法的批判之后，本文概述了替代方法，即通过关注其具体

的历史和社会决定因素，寻求将同性恋、跨性别和属下的抽象概念具体化。作者认为，这些去神秘化

的策略弘扬了批判理论的基本承诺，而这一承诺在当今的学术知识生产中常常被抛弃。

【原文】This paper identifies a common process of mystification within academic knowledge production

today: the treatment of subordinated groups as mere metaphors or rhetorical figures for academic theorizing.

We witness it when academics ask what trans might teach us about transnationality, when we are invited to

reflect on what might be queer about modern warfare, or when nation-states are described as subaltern. Trans,

queer, and subaltern populations are routinely fetishized within scholarship on the “traditional” International

Relations concerns of statecraft, migration, security, and so on. This tendency serves a mystifying function by

disabling scholars from examining the social relations that shape and organize their lives and histories. This

paper proceeds in three parts. First, to understand the origins and logics of this self-mystifying process, this

paper returns, via Stuart Hall, to Karl Marx’s methodological writings on abstraction. It contributes to the

formalization of his methodology for contemporary IR scholarship by drawing a distinction between the

fetishization of abstraction and the concretization of abstraction. Second, the paper explores how abstracted

subject positions have been fetishized within three fields of international studies: trans studies, queer theory,

and subaltern studies. Third, after elaborating a critique of this mystifying move, the paper outlines alternative

approaches that instead seek to concretize the abstractions queer, trans, and subaltern by attending to their

specific historical and social determinations. These strategies of demystification, we argue, carry forward a

founding commitment of critical theory that is all too often abandoned within scholarly knowledge production

today.

4. 治理流行病疲劳：国际关系中的经验生物政治学案例（Governing pandemic fatigue:

an International Relations case of experiential biopolitics）

Nicolas Gäckle，荷兰格罗宁根大学文学部博士生

【摘要】Covid-19 大流行表明，要在旷日持久的全球生物政治紧急状况中生存，就需要新的理论反思，

以理解在全球背景下治理生命的意义。作为国际关系（IR）中全球健康研究的核心参考，生物政治方

法将对生命的分子信息理解作为其治理对象。然而，全球大流行病疲劳现象需要一种新的问题分析。

因此，经验生物政治学的概念被提出，作为认识生物政治应急治理局限性的一种方法，而这种局限性

已导致受长期应急措施影响的人群普遍感到疲惫。这种重新制定的生物政治视角不仅将人的生命理解

为一种生物物质，而且通过其反思能力来孕育生活经验，强调了大流行病经验与感染动态之间的纠葛。

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文章通过世卫组织对大流行病疲劳的问题化探讨了经验生物政治学。文章分析了如何通过行为洞察研

究来评估大流行病的经历，从而将生物和经历变量结合起来，实现对大流行病事件的反思性认识。随

后，它对作为将大流行病主体想象为一种基本经验存在的基石的风险感知理论提出了质疑。

【原文】The Covid-19 pandemic has made evident that living through a protracted global biopolitical

emergency requires new theoretical reflections to make sense of what it means to govern life in a global context.

As a central reference in the study of global health in International Relations (IR), biopolitical approaches have

privileged a molecular-informational understanding of life as their object of governance. However, the

phenomenon of global pandemic fatigue calls for a new problematisation. Experiential biopolitics is proposed

here as an approach from which to recognise a limitation of biopolitical emergency governance that has

resulted in a generalised feeling of exhaustion among populations subject to prolonged emergency measures.

This reformulated biopolitical gaze understands human life, not only as a biological substance, but through its

reflexive capacity to nurture lived experience, highlighting the entanglement of pandemic experiences and

infection dynamics. The article explores experiential biopolitics through the WHO’s problematisation of

pandemic fatigue. It analyses how assessing pandemic experience through behavioural insights studies enables

a reflexive visibility of the pandemic event by drawing together biological and experiential variables.

Subsequently, it interrogates theories of risk perception as a cornerstone in imagining the pandemic subject as

a fundamentally experiential being.

5. 反叛者、自卫警员和特立独行者：全球卫生治理中的异端行为者（Rebels, vigilantes

and mavericks: heterodox actors in global health governance）

Stefan Elbe，英国苏塞克斯大学全球研究学院国际关系系教授

Dagmar Vorlíček，奥地利维也纳大学社会学研究所博士生

David Brenner 英国苏塞克斯大学全球研究学院国际关系系高级讲师

【摘要】COVID-19 大流行暴露出了深刻的治理挑战，这就要求在全球卫生治理方面采取更加多样化

和创造性的方法。本文通过强调异端行为者在大流行病期间发挥的重要作用，致力于实现该领域的多

元化。异端全球卫生行动者是有背景的行动者，他们改善了世界不同地区的卫生状况，但在政治上仍

被边缘化，在认识论上也被隐蔽化，因为他们在关键方面背离了全球卫生治理领域盛行的自由主义正

统观念。这篇文章通过结构倒置——一种以后殖民研究、基础设施研究和科技研究的最新方法论见解

为基础的全球卫生治理研究关系方法，突出了这些异端行为者的作用。然后，文章利用这种方法对三

种不同的异端行为者的 COVID-19 活动进行了实证调查：在缅甸边境地区提供公共卫生服务的反叛

团体、在捷克共和国缝制口罩的妇女治安维持会运动，以及一个特立独行的病毒序列数据国际共享科

学平台。这种结构上的倒置开始放宽自由主义认识论在全球卫生治理实践和研究中的主导地位。它进

一步揭示了这一领域是如何通过许多此类异端行为者的背景活动不断共同产生的。它还为全球卫生治

理——也可以说是更广泛的全球治理——的未来研究议程奠定了概念基础，以应对 COVID-19 揭示

的众多尚未解决的挑战。

【原文】COVID-19 has exposed profound governance challenges that demand more diverse and creative

approaches to global health governance moving forward. This article works towards such a pluralization of

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the field by foregrounding the vital role played by heterodox actors during the pandemic. Heterodox global

health actors are backgrounded actors who improve health in different parts of the world, but who remain

politically marginalized – and epistemically invisibilized – because they depart in crucial respects from

the liberal orthodoxy pervading the field of global health governance. The article analytically foregrounds

those heterodox actors through an architectural inversion – a relational approach to the study of global health

governance that builds upon recent methodological insights from postcolonial studies, infrastructure studies,

and science and technology studies. The article then harnesses that methodological approach to empirically

investigate the COVID-19 activities of three different heterodox actors: rebel groups providing public health

in the borderlands of Myanmar, a women’s vigilante movement stitching face masks in the Czech Republic,

and a maverick scientific platform for the international sharing of viral sequence data. Performing that

architectural inversion begins to loosen the dominance of the liberal episteme within the practice and study of

global health governance. It further visibilizes how that field is continually co-produced by the background

activities of many such heterodox actors. It also lays conceptual foundations for a more heterodox future

research agenda on global health governance – and arguably global governance more broadly – in

response to the numerous unresolved challenges revealed by COVID-19.

6. 多变的组织边界和联系国：在国际组织中引入成员制（Porous organizational

boundaries and associated states: introducing memberness in international

organizations）

Stephanie Hofmann，欧洲大学研究所政治与社会科学系教授，罗伯特-舒曼高级研究中心

Anamarija Andreska、Erna Burai、Juanita Uribe，日内瓦研究生院国际关系/政治科学博士生

【摘要】目前对国际组织（IOs），尤其是地区组织（ROs）成员资格的二元理解，造成了学界对谁在

国际组织中发挥重要作用，以及为什么和如何发挥重要作用的理解上的盲点和偏差。现有的学术研究

主要着眼于正式成员国或非国家行为者，以了解谁对这些组织有影响。联系国往往被描绘成国际组织

规则的被动接受者，而非积极贡献者。作者通过探讨存在哪些类型的联系关系以及它们如何影响国际

组织，来解决这一盲点和由此产生的分析偏差。作者提出了一种新的成员概念，作者称之为“成员性”。

在国际组织层面，成员性基于组织边界的相对开放性以及通过物质和意识形态贡献的分层准入。在国

家层面上，成员资格反映了相关国家在物质和/或意识形态上对国际组织做出贡献的个人选择。对成员

资格的理解不再纯粹基于权利（或你在国际组织中是谁），而是包括基于能力的理解（或你在国际组

织中做什么）。这种关注点的转移发现了影响国际组织的新渠道。联系国在物质和意识形态上对国际

组织的贡献构成了三种成员身份类型：出资人、赞助人和顾问。作者认为，这些成员身份类型以以前

未曾认识到的方式影响着国际组织的活力、设计和绩效。作者通过全球各地区域组织的经验实例来说

明这些类型，并讨论成员身份对国际组织研究项目的影响。

【原文】The current binary understanding of membership in international organizations (IOs), especially

regional organizations (ROs), creates blind spots and biases in our understanding of who matters in IOs, as

well as why and how they matter. Existing scholarship primarily looks at full member-states or non-state actors

to capture who influences such organizations. Associated states are often portrayed as passive receivers of IO

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rules instead of active contributors. We address this blind spot and resulting analytical bias by exploring what

types of association relationships exist and how they impact IOs. We propose a novel conceptualization of

membership that we call memberness. On the level of IOs, memberness is based on the relative openness of

organizational boundaries and stratified access via material and ideational contributions. On the level of states,

memberness captures associated states’ individual choices to contribute materially and/or ideationally to an

IO. Memberness moves away from a purely rights-based understanding of membership (or who you are in an

IO) to include a capacity-based understanding (or what you do in an IO). This shift in focus uncovers new

channels of influence on IOs. Associated states’ material and ideational contributions to IOs constitute three

memberness types: payroller, sponsor, and advisor. We argue that these memberness types impact IOs’ vitality,

design, and performance in previously unrecognized ways. We illustrate these types with empirical examples

from ROs across the globe and discuss the implications of memberness for IO research programs.

7. 非正式机构的动态与反霸权：引入金砖国家趋同指数（The dynamics of informal

institutions and counter-hegemony: introducing a BRICS Convergence Index）

Mihaela Papa，美国塔夫茨大学全球事务研究生院高级研究员

Zhen Han，美国塔夫茨大学弗莱彻法律与外交学院学院博士后学者，美国圣心大学政治学与全球事

务系助理教授

Frank O’Donnell，美国塔夫茨大学弗莱彻法律与外交学院博士后学者，史汀生中心南亚项目的非常

驻研究员

【摘要】非正式机构是重新谈判全球治理的重要平台，但在它们如何运作和挑战美国（US）的问题上

存在分歧。现实主义者将巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非（金砖国家）等一些非正式机构视为反霸

权实体，而理性制度主义者则关注它们的结构和在特定领域的表现。然而，这两种方法都无法解释使

这些机构强大并具有潜在反霸权作用的内部动力。为了填补这一空白，作者首先开发了一种分析非正

式制度动态的新趋同方法，然后运用这种方法研究金砖国家的稳健性和金砖国家与美国的关系。作者

的 \"金砖国家趋同指数 \"利用 2009 年至 2021 年间金砖国家在 47 个政策问题上合作的新数据集

来衡量金砖国家的政策趋同性。利用美国在相同问题上的政策偏好数据，作者还确定了金砖国家与美

国竞争的关键点。作者发现，在广泛的政策问题上，金砖国家的政策趋同性总体增强，与美国政策偏

好的分歧有限。然而，由于金砖国家在 2015 年后参与了更多的安全问题，并实质性地深化了合作，

其对抗美国影响的能力也随之增强。作者对非正式机构进行的以趋同为重点的分析，包含了成员的机

构和机构建设的途径，同时明确了约束对手国家的问题。因此，它有助于解释非正式机构如何获得稳

健性，并为新兴大国的崛起和全球治理改革努力提供经验性见解。

【原文】Informal institutions are important platforms for renegotiating global governance, but there is

disagreement on how they operate and challenge the United States (US). Realists view some informal

institutions like Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) as counter-hegemonic entities, while

rational institutionalists focus on their structure and performance in specific areas. However, neither approach

explains the internal dynamics that make these institutions robust and potentially counter-hegemonic. To fill

this gap, we first develop a new convergence approach for analysing informal institutional dynamics, and then

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we apply this approach to examine BRICS robustness and BRICS–US relations. Our BRICS Convergence

Index measures policy convergence of the BRICS states using a novel data set of BRICS cooperation on 47

policy issues between 2009 and 2021. Using data on US policy preferences on the same issues, we also identify

the key sites of BRICS–US contestation. We find an overall increase in BRICS policy convergence and limited

divergence from US preferences across a wide range of policy issues. However, since BRICS has engaged

with more security issues after 2015 and substantively deepened its cooperation, its capability to counter US

influence has grown. Our convergence-focused analysis of informal institutions embraces members’ agency

and pathways for institution building, while identifying the issues that bind rival countries. As such, it helps

explain how informal institutions gain robustness and provides empirical insights into the rise of new powers

and global governance reform efforts.

8. 基于实践和公共审议的规范性：保留人类对使用武力的控制权（Practice-based and

public-deliberative normativity: retaining human control over the use of force）

Ingvild Bode，南丹麦大学国际关系副教授

【摘要】关于致命自主武器系统（LAWS）的辩论将其描述为需要先发制人监管的未来问题，例如通

过编纂有意义的人类控制。但自主技术已经成为武器的一部分，并影响着各国对人类控制的看法。为

了理解这一规范空间，本文将分两步进行：首先，本文将从理论上说明设计、人员培训和操作集成了

自主技术的武器系统的实践是如何在看不见的地方形成人类控制的规范性/正常性的。其次，本文通过

对潜在的互动动态进行理论分析，追溯这种规范性/规范性如何与政府专家组（GGE）对致命性自主武

器系统的公开讨论相互作用。本文发现，与集成了自主技术的武器系统相关的实践所产生的规范性/正

常性，赋予了人类在具体的武力使用决策中被削弱的角色，并将这种被削弱的决策能力理解为“适当

的”和“正常的”。在公共审议过程中，利益相关者通过忽视、疏远或积极承认（而非严格审查）这

种规范性来与之互动。这些论点超越了规范研究中公共审议的优先地位，转而探索在公众视线之外的

场所进行的规范性生产实践。本文通过国际实践理论、批判性安全研究和科学技术学术研究对这一过

程进行了理论分析，从而得出惯例是如何塑造规范性的，如何呈现应当性和公正性的理念，以及如何

通过集体、重复的表演使某些事物正常化。

【原文】The debate about lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) characterises them as future problems

in need of pre-emptive regulation, for example, through codifying meaningful human control. But autonomous

technologies are already part of weapons and have shaped how states think about human control. To

understand this normative space, I proceed in two steps: first, I theorise how practices of designing, of training

personnel for, and of operating weapon systems integrating autonomous technologies have shaped

normativity/normality on human control at sites unseen. Second, I trace how this normativity/normality

interacts with public deliberations at the Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) on LAWS by theorising

potential dynamics of interaction. I find that the normativity/normality emerging from practices performed in

relation to weapon systems integrating autonomous technologies assigns humans a reduced role in specific use

of force decisions and understands this diminished decision-making capacity as ‘appropriate’ and ‘normal’. In

the public-deliberative process, stakeholders have interacted with this normativity by ignoring it, engaging in

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distancing or positively acknowledging it – rather than scrutinising it. These arguments move beyond

prioritising public deliberation in norm research towards exploring practices performed at sites outside of the

public eye as productive of normativity. I theorise this process via international practice theories, critical

security studies and Science and Technology scholarship to draw out how practices shape normativity,

presenting ideas of oughtness and justice, and normality, making something appear normal via collective,

repeated performances.

9. 银色余晖：动员如何塑造政变对民主化的影响（Clouds with silver linings: how

mobilization shapes the impact of coups on democratization）

Marianne Dahl，挪威奥斯陆和平研究所（PRIO）高级研究员

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch，英国埃塞克斯大学政府系政治学教授，挪威奥斯陆和平研究所 (PRIO)教

授

【摘要】关于政变对民主化的影响，争论由来已久。一些人认为，政变有助于促进向民主统治的过渡。

但也有人认为，政变往往会加剧镇压和专制，破坏民主改革的希望。作者认为，政变后更有可能发生

民主和专制变革，而民众动员在塑造政变后的轨迹方面起着至关重要的作用。当政变发生时有大量的

民众动员，民主化的可能性就更大。政变揭示了政权内部的裂痕，而在民众动员期间，来自内部的压

力和来自外部的威胁相结合，会促进承诺民主改革的更大动力。在没有民众动员的情况下，专制统治

更有可能发生，尤其是在政变成功的情况下。作者在全球数据集中检验了民众动员和政变对民主变化

的综合影响，考虑了事件和制度变化的具体日期、政变的结果，并使用衰减函数来捕捉持续性影响。

分析结果为作者的论点提供了有力的支持，其主要结论在多种替代检验中都是可靠的。作者的分析强

调了研究政变背景下的变化以了解其可能产生的政治后果的价值。

【原文】There is a long-standing debate over the impact of coups on democratization. Some argue that coups

can help promote transitions to democratic rule. Yet, others contend that coups often spur increased repression

and autocratization, undermining hopes of democratic reform. We argue that both democratic and autocratic

changes are more likely after a coup and that popular mobilization plays a crucial role in shaping the postcoup trajectory. Democratization is more likely when coups occur in the presence of significant popular

mobilization. A coup reveals cracks within a regime, and the combination of pressure from within and threat

from below during popular mobilizations fosters greater incentives to promise democratic reform. In the

absence of popular mobilization, autocratic rule is more likely, especially when a coup is successful. We test

our argument on the combined effect of popular mobilization and coups on changes in democracy in a global

dataset, considering the specific dates of events and institutional changes, the outcomes of coups, and using

decay functions to capture persistent effects. The analysis provides strong support for our argument, with the

key findings robust across a number of alternative tests. Our analysis underscores the value of examining

variation in the context of coups to understand their likely political consequences.

10. 永恒的本体论危机：国家分裂、持久焦虑以及韩国与日本的话语关系（Perpetual

ontological crisis: national division, enduring anxieties and South Korea’s discursive

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137

relationship with Japan）

Chris Deacon，英国伦敦政治经济学院国际关系系博士研究院

【摘要】国际关系中本体论安全学术研究的广泛议程是研究国家自我认同的（不）安全及其对国家国

际行为的影响。虽然本体论安全可能是一个虚幻的目标，但各国的本体论不安全程度各不相同，更极

端的程度会产生尖锐的防御机制。因此，这种本体论危机是一个日益受到关注的重要领域。然而，迄

今为止，它们通常被概念化为 \"危急情况\"：常规化实践中不可预测、短暂且可实际解决的断裂。本文

认为，这种概念化忽视了自我认同的更根本、更长期的危机的可能性，本文称之为永恒的本体论危机。

这种危机源于主流身份建构中可能一直存在的内在矛盾--而不是对迄今安全的自我的外来冲击，因此

在这些建构的范围内是无法解决的。本文提出了民族/国家不协调的例子：当一个国家的领土边界与该

国占主导地位的民族空间想象不一致时，就会产生内在的、持久的矛盾。然后，本文以韩国为例说明

这些论点，韩国的边界从未与想象中的韩国国家空间边界相吻合。为了说明这一危机的影响，本文进

行了一项话语分析，证明了有关韩国分裂的持久本体论焦虑与韩国与日本的长期对立关系之间的联系。

因此，本文对读者如何理解本体论危机具有重要意义，并对其经验案例进行了新颖的阐述。

【原文】The broad agenda of ontological security scholarship in International Relations is to examine states’

(in)security of Self-identity and the implications for their international conduct. While ontological security

may be an illusory goal, states vary in their levels of ontological insecurity, with more extreme levels producing

acute defence mechanisms. Such ontological crises are therefore an important area of focus gaining increasing

attention. Thus far, however, they have generally been conceptualised as ‘critical situations’: unpredictable,

transient and practically resolvable ruptures of routinised practices. I argue that such a conceptualisation

neglects the possibility of a more fundamental, long-term crisis of Self-identity, which I term perpetual

ontological crisis. Such crises stem from inherent contradictions within dominant constructions of identity that

may have always existed – rather than exogenous shocks to a hitherto secure Self – and are therefore

irresolvable within the bounds of those constructions. I develop the example of nation/state incongruence:

when a state’s territorial boundaries do not accord with the national spatial imaginary dominant in that state,

resulting in an inherent and enduring contradiction. I then illustrate these contentions with a case study of

South Korea, whose borders have never matched the imagined spatial bounds of the Korean nation. To

demonstrate the implications of this crisis, I conduct a discourse analysis evidencing a nexus between enduring

ontological anxieties concerning Korean division and South Korea’s persistently antagonistic relationship with

Japan. In doing so, this article has important implications for how we understand ontological crisis and offers

a novel account of its empirical case.

【编译：张潇文】

【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

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《国际事务》（International Affairs）

International Affairs，Vol.99，No.5，2023

1. 和平领域的知识生产：参与者、层级和政策相关性（Knowledge production on

peace: actors, hierarchies and policy relevance）

Sara Hellmüller，苏黎世联邦理工学院高级研究员

Laurent Goetschel，巴塞尔大学政治科学教授

Kristoffer Lidén，奥斯陆和平研究中心高级研究员

【摘要】这个专题部分关注和平知识的生产，提出了三个相互关联的问题：谁在生产和平知识，哪些

知识被优先考虑，以及这些知识如何影响政策和实践。这个部分的文章以批判的视角探讨了和平研究

中的参与者、动态和层级，并提供了关于如何解决当前偏见的见解。这个专题部分对和平研究和更广

泛的国际关系做出了三方面的贡献。首先，它涉及到有关这些学科最初目的以及它们与政策辩论的关

系的核心辩论。其次，它融入了有关性别和去殖民化这些学科的当前辩论，以及确保更多多样性的必

要性。第三，它是一个新兴研究议程的一部分，该议程关注哪种类型的知识影响了哪种类型的参与者

和机构。总体而言，这个专题部分显示，特别在导致重新审视我们关于和平与冲突思考的世界政治巨

变时，了解哪些知识被特权化，这些知识属于谁，以及这些知识如何与它试图影响的实践相关，是至

关重要的。只有这样，才能克服内在的偏见、层级和实际断裂。

【原文】This special section focuses on knowledge production on peace by asking three inter-related questions:

who produces knowledge on peace, what knowledge is prioritized and how does it feed into policy and practice.

The articles of the section provide a critical perspective on the actors, dynamics and hierarchies in peace studies

and offer insights into how current biases may be addressed. The special section contributes to peace research

and broader International Relations in three ways. First, it speaks to the core of debates about the original

purpose of the disciplines and their proximity to policy debates. Second, it is embedded in current debates

《国际事务》（International Affairs）是国际关系领域的一

流学术期刊，也是多学科综合性学术期刊。本刊于 1992 年

由伦敦皇家国际事务研究所查塔姆学院（Chatham House）

创立，内容来源广泛，力图囊括业内专家、学术新秀对重

点、热点问题的最新思考。2022 年期刊影响因子为 4.5，

在 96 个国际关系类刊物中位列第 7 名。

2024 年第 1 期（总第 13 期）

139

about gendering and decolonializing the disciplines and the need to ensure more diversity. Third, it is part of

an emerging research agenda on what types of knowledge influence which types of actors and institutions.

Overall, the special section shows that especially in times of tectonic changes in world politics that lead to a

revisiting of our thinking about peace and conflict, it is crucial to understand what knowledge is privileged,

whose knowledge this is and how the knowledge relates to the practices it seeks to inform. Only then can builtin biases, hierarchies and practical disconnects be overcome.

2. 调解领域的知识生产：以实践为导向，但不一定与实践相关？（Knowledge

production on mediation: practice-oriented, but not practice-relevant?）

Sara Hellmüller，苏黎世联邦理工学院高级研究员

【摘要】国际调解已经成为应对武装冲突的标准回应，这在该领域不断扩大的研究议程中有所体现。

本文探讨了关于调解实践与研究之间所谓的脱节。本研究分析了发表在高度排名的学术期刊中的文章，

提供了关于谁在生产有关调解的知识、如何生产这种知识以及生产了什么知识的见解。研究表明，大

部分关于调解的学术研究由西方男性视角进行，实证主义方法占主导地位，并且大多数出版物理论化

了调解成功的原因。通过这一分析，本文表明，尽管高影响力的调解研究是以实践为导向的，因为大

多数研究关注如何使调解更加有效，但它的实践相关性可以通过三种方式加强：通过增加不同的视角，

通过增加更多的解释性和定性方法，以及通过产生更多的批判性研究。本文还表明，发表在更专业的

期刊、书籍和政策文献中的更广泛的调解研究有助于填补这些差距。因此，本研究细化了调解研究与

实践之间被认为存在的脱节。总的来说，本文对调解知识生产进行了全面的审查，并为有关多样性和

和平研究领域更广泛的批判潜力的讨论做出了贡献。

【原文】International mediation has become a standard response to armed conflicts, reflected in an expanding

research agenda on the topic. This article examines the alleged disconnect between practice and research on

mediation. It analyses articles published in highly ranked academic journals and provides insights on who

produces knowledge on mediation, how such knowledge is produced and what knowledge is produced. It

shows that western male scholars produce the majority of scholarly research on mediation; that positivist

approaches dominate these analyses and that most publications theorize about reasons for mediation success.

Through this analysis, the article demonstrates that while high-impact mediation research is practice-oriented

in that most contributions examine how to make it more effective, its practice-relevance could be strengthened

in three ways: by increasing the diversity of perspectives, by adding more interpretive and qualitative

approaches and by producing more critical research. The article demonstrates that broader mediation research

published in more specialized journals, books and the policy literature contributes to filling these gaps. It

therefore nuances the presumed disconnect between mediation research and practice. Overall, the article

provides a thorough review of knowledge production on mediation and adds to discussions on diversity and

the critical potential of the broader field of peace studies.

3. 转型正义知识生产中的方法政治（The politics of methods in transitional justice

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knowledge production）

Ulrike Lühe，瑞士和平（Swisspeace）研究员

【摘要】本文关注知识生产实践与转型正义（TJ）国际政治之间的关系。文章认为，对早期 TJ 学术

主要以叙述性和规范性研究为主的呼吁，而进行的数量性学术研究，这些研究被认为仍然影响着 TJ

子领域，如对地方司法研究的影响，这些数量性研究本身也致力于 TJ 的规范框架和目标，而这些研

究旨在提供工具来挑战这些框架和目标。运用“方法政治”的视角，文章强调了调查的解释性工作和

大量样本影响研究的方法选择，这些方法将这些研究圈定为狭义的 TJ 应该是什么样的观念。文章的

结论表明，这些“方法政治”如何有助于去政治化本质上是政治性选择和实践的选择，并预定了哪些

政策和实践选择被认为是有用的、相关的甚至可想象的。因此，它们塑造了它们声称只是研究的对象。

这一分析既有助于国际关系领域的批判性方法论讨论，也为 TJ 领域的研究-政策-实践关系初露端倪

的学术研究提供了一个未经充分探讨的例子，展示了被认为是独立的知识生产和政治之间的相互构成

关系。

【原文】This article is concerned with how practices of knowledge production relate to the international

politics of transitional justice (TJ). It argues that quantitative scholarly studies—called for in response to the

anecdotal and normative studies that prevailed in early TJ scholarship and which, it is argued, continue to

shape TJ sub-fields such as the study of local justice—are themselves committed to the normative framework

and the goals of TJ that they seek to provide the tools to challenge. Applying a ‘politics of methods’ lens, the

article foregrounds the interpretive work of surveys and the methodological choices of large-N impact studies

which circle these works back to narrowly defined ideas of what TJ ought to be. The conclusions show how

these ‘politics of methods’ contribute to the decontestation of an inherently political choice and practice, and

predetermine what policy and practice options are considered useful, relevant and even imaginable. As such

they shape that which they claim only to examine. Contributing to both critical methodological debates in

International Relations and nascent scholarship on the research–policy–practice nexus in TJ, the analysis

provides an under-examined example of the co-constitutive relationship of what is considered to be detached

knowledge production and politics.

4. 性别作为暴力冲突的原因（Gender as a cause of violent conflict）

Elisabeth Prügl，日内瓦高级国际关系及发展学院教授

【摘要】这篇文章主张性别可以被理解为导致暴力冲突的因素，尽管有关内战和冲突转化的文献在这

个问题上很少有涉及。问题在于，传统的因果关系理解将其定义为解释规律性，这无法把握性别与其

他差异标志交叉作用的生产性和展演性。在哲学现实主义的基础上，文章引入了社会机制的概念，并

对其进行了重构，以使其与建构主义和后结构主义理论相容。文章发展了“交叉性别机制”的概念，

以显示性别的生产力，并提出性别在与其他差异标志相交的情况下，作为暴力冲突的因果驱动因素。

它提出了一种实用主义方法，将原因理解为人们提供的事情发生原因，这与致力于变革和从特定背景

理解世界的女性主义方法论相联系。文章借鉴现有的女性主义文献，然后确定了驱动冲突动态的三种

典型的交叉性别机制：男性主义的保护、男性主义的竞争和为生存而动员。最后，文章总结了这种方

法对将性别融入和平建设和冲突预防的主流影响的意义。

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【原文】The article argues that gender can be understood to cause violent conflict, although the literatures on

civil war and conflict transformation are largely silent on the matter. The problem is an understanding of

causation as explaining regularities, which fails to grasp how gender, in intersection with other markers of

difference, is productive and performative. Building on philosophical realism, the article introduces the

concept of social mechanisms and reformulates it to become compatible with constructivist and

poststructuralist theorizing. It develops the notion of ‘intersectionally-gendered mechanisms’ to bring into

view the productive force of gender and proposes that gender, in intersection with other axes of differentiation,

operates as a causal driver of violent conflicts. It suggests a pragmatist approach that understands causes as

the reasons people provide for why things are happening, which connects to feminist methodologies that are

committed to change and to understanding the world from situated contexts. Drawing on existing feminist

literature it then identifies three exemplary intersectionally-gendered mechanisms driving conflict dynamics:

masculinist protection, masculinist competition, and mobilization for survival. It concludes by drawing out the

implications of this approach for mainstreaming gender into peacebuilding and conflict prevention.

5. “底层的声音”：我们作为专家，能够倾听吗？（The ‘subaltern speak’: can we, the

experts, listen?）

Navnita Chadha Behera，印度德里大学政治科学系教授

【摘要】和平与冲突研究中的知识生产存在着脱节，这种脱节表现在其“专家主导”的研究探究和世

界各地人们的生活实际之间。文章关注了在不同利益相关者中，什么知识以及谁的知识被认为是合法

的问题，将这种脱节的存在归因于帝国主义所造成的认识上的抹除以及其持久的遗产，尤其是特权政

治在维护秩序方面对社会机构的政治首要性和自主性的特权。这与西方现代性的限制性认知方式一起

解释了政府和学术专业知识中的国家中心主义，尤其是在后殖民社会。文章主张将知识的认知方式和

研究工具置于历史和去殖民化的语境中，并说明了如何通过参考 20 世纪 90 年代初印度查谟克什米尔

邦发生的克什米尔冲突来实现这一目标。与 Gayatri Spivak 提出的备受赞誉的问题“底层能否说话？”

不同，文章认为社会底层能够说话，而且从未保持沉默。因此，文章提出的问题是：我们作为专家，

是否能够倾听？

【原文】Knowledge production in peace and conflict research is marked by a disconnect between its

‘expertise-driven’ research inquiries and lived realities of people across the world. In focusing on what

knowledge and whose knowledge counts as legitimate among the diverse stakeholders, the article locates the

raison d'être of this gap in the epistemic erasures inflicted by imperial knowledge and its lasting legacies,

especially that of privileging the primacy and autonomy of the political over the social institutions in

maintaining order. This, along with the limiting epistemes of western modernity explain the state-centrism in

governmental and academic expertise, especially in post-colonial societies. The article makes a case for

historicizing and decolonizing its epistemes and tools of research, and illustrates how this can be done by

drawing on the Kashmir conflict as it unfolded in the early 1990s in the Indian part of Jammu and Kashmir

state. In a point of departure from the much-acclaimed question asked by Gayatri Spivak: ‘can the subaltern

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speak?’, the article argues that the subaltern can speak and has indeed never been silent. So, the question it

poses is: can we, the experts, listen?

6. 数字工具作为国际和平与安全领域的专家（Digital tools as experts in international

peace and security）

Luisa Cruz Lobato，里约热内卢天主教大学国际关系学院讲师

Victoria Santos，华盛顿州 BIPOC 教育部联盟联合创始人

【摘要】在过去的几十年里，关于和平与安全的知识越来越多地通过数字对象，如数据库、指标、应

用程序、大数据和数据分析算法，进行传播和共同创造，而最近学术文献才刚刚开始认识到这一点。

本文通过探讨数字对象设计在它们成为国际和平与安全实践的专家时的核心作用，填补了学术文献中

的空白。通过将设计的政治性置于中心位置，我们为关于技术对当代国际政策中谁/什么被认为是专家

的影响的更广泛辩论做出了贡献。通过对联合国制裁应用程序和安全援助监视数据库进行材料-符号

分析，并与创作者和用户进行半结构化访谈，我们展示了包容性的规范目标如何被写入数字工件中并

转化为实际使用。这些案例的选择基于它们将相关的国家和非国家行为者纳入政策决策，我们的研究

结果表明，物质基础设施在推进这一目标的过程中发挥了重要作用。我们揭示了数字专家对象如何通

过与它们的制作所涉及的关系网络产生可行的知识，并强调了从业者参与制作此类对象的重要性。

【原文】Over the past decades, knowledge about peace and security has become increasingly mediated and

co-produced with and through digital objects such as databases, indicators, apps, big data and data analysis

algorithms. Only recently has the literature begun to recognize this. This article addresses the gap in the

literature by exploring the centrality of digital objects' design in their emergence as experts in relation to

international peace and security practices. By centering the politics of design, we contribute to broader debates

on the effects of technology for who/what is considered an expert in contemporary international policy.

Through a material-semiotic analysis of the UN SanctionsApp and the Security Assistance Monitor database,

and semi-structured interviews with creators and users, we show how the normative goal of inclusion is

inscribed into digital artifacts and translated into use. These cases were selected based on their inclusion of

relevant state and nonstate actors into policy decisions, and our findings suggest that usage and material

infrastructures play an important role in how this purpose is advanced. We shed light onto how digital expert

objects produce actionable knowledge via the web of relations implicated in their production and highlight the

importance of practitioners' participation in the making of such objects.

7. 研究如何转化为政策：北欧和平研究的案例（How research travels to policy: the case

of Nordic peace research）

Isabel Bramsen，瑞典隆德大学政治科学系副教授

Anine Hagemann，哥本哈根大学国际冲突解决中心研究员

【摘要】和平研究与实践之间的联系是什么？观察者们曾经认为，和平研究已经从有关改变世界的行

动主义政治理想转变为一个以方法为驱动的研究领域，失去了所有的批判性。这篇文章通过调查北欧

和平研究及其与实践的关系来为这一辩论增添了实证内容。通过对 60 多名个体的采访数据，包括杰

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出的和平与冲突学者以及从事和平与冲突解决工作的从业者，我们通过四个“旅行者”来概念化和平

研究与实践之间的关系：1) 研究者，2) 学生，3) 理论和概念，以及 4) 经验性发现。我们描述了这

四个旅行者的独特特征，并讨论了和平研究随时间变化的影响；从研究者充当调解者和和平活动家到

越来越多的专业化，解开了和平研究与实践的联系，缩小了实践中的反思空间以及将实际经验整合到

研究中的能力。我们讨论了未来的路径，强调合创，建议和平研究不一定需要通过提供具体的政策建

议来影响政策，而更多地是通过提出重大而困难的问题，如“如何实现和平？”和“为什么发生战争？”

来影响政策。

【原文】How is peace research connected to practice? Observers have argued that peace research has gone

from activist, political ideals about changing the world to being a methods-driven field of research that has

lost all criticality. This article adds empirical substance to the debate by investigating the case of Nordic peace

research and its relationship to practice. Through interview data with more than 60 individuals, including

prominent peace and conflict scholars as well as practitioners working with peace and conflict resolution, we

conceptualize the practice–research relationship through four ‘travelers’ connecting peace research and

practice: 1) researchers, 2) students, 3) theories and concepts and 4) empirical findings. We describe distinct

characteristics of the four travelers and discuss the changing impact of peace research over time; from

researchers acting as mediators and peace activists to an increasing professionalization that has disentangled

peace research and practice, shrinking the space for reflexivity in practice as well as the ability to integrate

practical experience into research. We discuss the paths forward in terms of co-creation and suggest that peace

research need not necessarily influence policy in terms of concrete policy advice but more so by asking big

and difficult questions such as ‘how peace?’ and ‘why war?’

8. 顾客永远是对的：国际调解中的政策研究领域（The customer is always right: the

policy research arena in international mediation）

Laurie Nathan，圣母大学克罗克国际和平研究学院调解项目主任

【摘要】这篇文章探讨了研究对国际调解的影响。本文驳斥了有关调解研究不会影响政策和实践的说

法。相反，文章表明，联合国、政府间发展机构（IGAD）和其他政策制定者不仅对调解研究持开放态

度，而且起到积极委托和传播研究的作用。文章认为，调解政策研究领域类似于寡买者市场，即市场

上有少数几个重要的买家和大量的卖家，是一个不完全竞争的市场。因此，交易权力掌握在政策制定

者手中，政策研究领域旨在满足他们的偏好。他们对提高调解效果的问题解决研究具有功利主义偏好。

在方法上，他们偏好包括与调解者面谈在内的比较案例研究，而不认为定量分析有用。在传播过程方

面，他们青睐根据自身需求定制的委托研究。他们期望委托研究符合他们的规范，服务于特定目的，

反映对调解的深刻理解，并提出功能上合理、政治上合适和经济上可行的建议。对于调解研究人员来

说，最重要的是，如果能够满足他们研究的预期接收者的知识要求，他们最有可能影响政策和实践。

【原文】This article examines the influence of research on international mediation. It refutes claims that

mediation research has not influenced policy and practice. On the contrary, it shows that the United Nations,

the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and other policy-makers are not only receptive to

mediation research but proactively commission and disseminate research. The article argues that the mediation

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policy research arena resembles an oligopsony, which is an imperfect competitive market with a small number

of important buyers and a large number of sellers. Consequently, transaction power lies with the policymakers,

and the policy research arena is geared to meeting their preferences. They have a utilitarian preference for

problem-solving research that enhances the effectiveness of mediation. They have a methodological preference

for comparative case-studies that include interviews with mediators, and do not regard quantitative analysis as

useful. In terms of transmission processes, they favour commissioned research tailored to meet their needs.

They expect commissioned research to conform to their norms, serve a specified purpose, reflect a deep

understanding of mediation, and make proposals that are functionally sound, politically appropriate and

financially viable. The bottom line for mediation researchers is that they are most likely to influence policy

and practice if they meet the knowledge requirements of the intended recipients of their research.

9. 分析国际组织中技术官僚和外交官之间的分歧（Analysing the divide between

technocrats and diplomats in international organizations）

Jamie Pring，联合国大学比较区域一体化研究所研究员及巴塞尔大学讲师

【摘要】国际关系学者对技术知识如何提高国际组织的表现进行了研究，发现它可能导致对其更广泛

目标的破坏。现有研究尚未具体说明技术熟练度将在何时如何导致这种情况，对这些相冲突的观察结

果进行调和。为了解决这一问题，本文探讨了组织内实践社群 (CoP) 之间的联系，将技术知识与其他

形式的知识、参与者和工具联系起来。这对于应对更大环境中的实践、提高组织表现来说至关重要。

为说明这一点，本文探讨了两个 CoP（即技术 CoP 和外交 CoP）在制定和部署非洲调解支持结构中

的作用。该研究对官方文件、报告、学术著作以及对官员、合作伙伴和分析者的半结构化专家访谈进

行了定性分析，研究发现，相关 CoP 之间的脱节会导致对特定的知识和工具，尤其是技术知识的过

度关注，而牺牲了其他对于解决 IO 运营环境至关重要的问题，从而导致功能障碍。CoP 之间的联系

促进了对环境的整体响应，使组织能够根据其职责运作。

【原文】International Relations scholarship has examined how technical knowledge boosts the performance

of international organizations, but has found that it could also lead to behaviour undermining their broader

goals. Research has not reconciled these contrasting observations by specifying when and how technical

proficiency leads to such dysfunction. Addressing these gaps, this article examines the connections among

Communities of Practice (CoPs) within the organization in linking technical knowledge with other forms of

knowledge, actors and tools crucial to address the larger environment, enhancing performance. To illustrate

this, the article examines the role of two CoPs, namely, the technical CoP and the diplomatic CoP, in

developing and deploying African Mediation Support Structures. The research uses qualitative analysis of

official documents, reports, scholarly works and semi-structured expert interviews of officials, partners and

analysts. It finds that disconnections among relevant CoPs foster an excessive focus on specific sets of

knowledge and tools, particularly technical knowledge, at the expense of engaging others also crucial in

addressing the IOs' operating environment, leading to dysfunction. Connections among CoPs promote a

holistic response to the environment, enabling the organization to function according to its mandate.