2024 年第 2 期（总第 14 期）

145

【摘要】“一带一路”倡议对中国的发展愿景至关重要。在“一带一路”倡议下，中国政策制定者一

直致力于向发展中国家出口铁路系统，但一些项目的进展仍然有限。本文重点介绍与巴基斯坦计划中

的铁路项目相关的延误：ML-1 项目。它回答了以下问题：尽管中国对 ML-1 铁路项目有浓厚的兴趣，

但是什么原因导致了该项目的延误？本文使用两步概念框架来回答这个问题。在第一步中，它强调了

参与项目级谈判的铁路官员的作用。这表明，地方官员通过积极就技术参数谈判导致了项目的延误。

中国企业在确保其同意的政策手段有限。在第二步中，本文通过分析政治和军事精英的作用，将延误

置于巴基斯坦的政治经济背景下。本文还探讨了政治变革和经济因素对项目的影响，发现与当地政治

精英的发展愿景不一致的项目将面临延误。国内政治变化也导致了拖延。此外，未能获得“主要否决

者”的支持，加上经济问题和融资条件的分歧，限制了中国开展大型项目的能力。

【原文】The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is important to China’s development vision. Under the BRI,

Chinese policymakers have focused on exporting railway systems to developing countries, yet progress on

some projects remains limited. This article focuses on delays associated with a planned railway project in

Pakistan: the ML-1. It answers the following question: What explains delays in the ML-1 railway project

despite strong Chinese interest in it? The article uses a two-step conceptual framework to answer this question.

In the first step, it highlights the role of railway bureaucrats involved in project-level negotiations. It shows

that local bureaucrats contribute to delays by actively negotiating technical parameters. Chinese firms have

limited policy levers to ensure their acquiescence. In the second step, the article places delays in the context

of Pakistan’s political economy by analysing the role of the political and military elite. It also explores the

impact of political change and economic factors on the project. Projects not in sync with the local political

elites’ development vision face delays. Domestic political changes also contribute to delays. Furthermore, a

failure to gain major veto actors’ support, coupled with economic problems and differences over financing

terms, constrains China’s ability to pursue large-scale projects.

【编译：任雨欣】

【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

146

《中国评论》（The Chinese University of Hong Kong Press）

The Chinese University of Hong Kong Press，Vol.23，No.4，2023

1. 影响 2024 年台湾地区领导人选举结果的内外因素（External and Internal Factors

Shaping the Outcomes of 2024 Elections in Taiwan）

林冈，上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院特聘教授、台湾研究中心创始主任

吴维旭，清华大学台湾研究院助理教授（正文略）

2. 地缘政治、国内政治及台湾海峡战争风险：华盛顿与新兴两岸动态（Geopolitics,

Domestic Politics, and Risks of War in the Taiwan Strait: Washington and Emerging

Cross-Strait Dynamics）

胡伟星，澳门大学发展基金会特聘教授、澳门大学社会科学学院院长

孟维瞻，复旦大学社会科学高等研究院讲师

【摘要】中美关系和两岸关系交紧密相关。中美战略竞争逐渐成为重塑未来两岸动态的动力。随着中

美战略竞争升级，双方的互信水平降低，台湾海峡的战争风险正在上升。美国和中国在“一个中国”

的含义上存在根本分歧。在亚太地区加剧的中美战略竞争将对未来两岸关系发展和中美解决台湾问题

的方式产生负面影响。无论美国是否打出“台湾牌”，其国内政治和大国竞争都在将两岸关系引向不

确定的方向。台湾海峡可能成为世界两大强国开战的地方。然而，在国内政治中渲染战争威胁并打出

“台湾牌”对抗中国虽然方便但非常危险。减少在台湾海峡渲染战争威胁符合所有人的利益。

【原文】China-U.S. relations and cross-Strait relations are intertwined. The U.S.-China strategic competition

has increasingly become a driving force reshaping future cross-Strait dynamics. As the U.S.-China strategic

competition escalates, the level of mutual trust is diminishing, and the risk of war across the Taiwan Strait is

rising. Washington and Beijing have fundamental differences over what “one China” means. Intensifying

《中国评论》（The Chinese University of Hong Kong Press）

是香港中文大学出版社（The Chinese University of Hong

Kong Press）自 1991 年出版的《中国评论》的续刊。该期

刊从 2001 年开始每年 4 月和 10 月出版 2 期，从 2018 年

开始每年出版 4 期；是一本涵盖有关大中华地区及其人民

的各学科研究（即国内政治和国际关系）的学术期刊，包

括社会、商业和经济发展、现代史、艺术和文化研究。

2024 年第 2 期（总第 14 期）

147

China-U.S. strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region will have a negative bearing on future development

of cross-Strait relations and how Washington and Beijing resolve their differences over Taiwan. Whether or

not Washington plays the “Taiwan card,” domestic politics in Washington and great power competition are

directing the cross-strait relationship in an uncertain direction. -e Taiwan Strait could be the place where the

world’s two biggest powers fight a war. Yet, hyping war threat and playing the “Taiwan card” against China

in domestic politics is convenient but very dangerous. It would be in everyone’s interest to dampen the hyping

of war in the Taiwan Strait.

3. 平行视角：中美在台湾问题上的视角差异和危机启示（Parallel Perceptions: Divergent

Perspectives of the United States and China on the Taiwan Issue and Risky Implications）

信强，复旦大学台湾研究中心创始主任、美国研究中心副主任

王佳霖，复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院博士生

【摘要】中美在台湾问题上日益紧张的竞争导致了台海局势不断升级。中美在台湾问题上战略观念日

渐产生的分歧对塑造与台湾相关的政策制定至关重要。美国主要通过地缘安全、意识形态对立和大国

竞争的视角看待台湾问题。相反，中国主要将其视为主权和领土完整的问题，视其为“两岸同胞一家”

的国内问题，是通过统一实现国家复兴的重要里程碑。这些几乎平行的战略视角引发了相反且通常冲

突的政治叙事、政策制定逻辑和与台湾有关的政策行为。因此，因这些平行视角所产生的固有的互相

误解、错误解读和敌意，阻碍了两国之间达成共识以应对动荡和处理颇具争议的台湾问题的可能性。

【原文】The intensifying rivalry between the United States and China on the Taiwan issue has led to escalating

tensions in the Taiwan Strait. The growing divergence in their strategic perceptions of this issue has been

indispensable in shaping Taiwan-related policymaking. The United States predominantly views the Taiwan

issue through the lenses of geopolitical security, ideological dichotomy, and great power competition. In

contrast, China primarily considers it as a matter of sovereignty and territorial integrity, a domestic issue for

“a family shared by cross-Strait Chinese,” and a crucial milestone in achieving national rejuvenation through

reunification. These divergent strategic perceptions, running almost in parallel, have given rise to contrasting

and usually conflicting political narratives, policy-making logic, and policy behaviors pertaining to Taiwan.

Consequently, the inherent reciprocal misunderstandings, misinterpretations, and animosity stemming from

these parallel perceptions have hindered the possibility of reaching a consensus to navigate the turbulence and

manage the controversial Taiwan issue between the two countries.

4. 俄乌战争与对全球权力变动的认知：影响美国对台政策变迁的因素（The RussoUkraine War and the Perceived Global Power Shift: Factors Influencing U.S. Taiwan

Policy Change）

周文星，南京大学国际关系学院助理研究员

陈静，澳门科技大学社会和文化研究所国际关系专业博士生

【摘要】本文基于新古典现实主义的理论视角，探讨了自 2022 年 2 月底俄乌冲突升级以来美国的对

台政策变化。乌克兰战争对美国各界造成了重大冲击，由于美方认为中国有可能在台海诉诸武力，从

148

而加剧了美国对中国迫在眉睫的威胁认知，这为美国修订其对台政策提供了新的动力。然而，本文基

于新古典现实主义所构建的三层次理论框架认为，战争只是加速了特朗普总统任内就已开始的美国对

台政策调整的步伐。特朗普总统对美国对华政策进行了彻底转变，这种转变主要是源于美国对中美权

力分配的认知变化，以及对中国国家治理体系及其对外政策日益增加的担忧。随着对权力分配的认知

变化以及对持续升级的威胁的忧虑的持续，美国将更加坚决地打“台湾牌”，并在不久的将来强化其

对台政策的“乌克兰化”趋势。乌克兰战争将继续影响美国对台政策的演变轨迹。但鉴于美国对台政

策面临的体系压力，俄乌战争的影响仍将是有限的。

【原文】This article examines U.S. Taiwan policy change since the escalation of the Russo-Ukraine conflict

in late February 2022 from a neoclassical realist perspective. -The Ukraine war has made a significant impact

on the United States, exacerbating Americans’ perceptions of an imminent China threat due to its potential use

of force in the Taiwan Strait and providing fresh impetus for Washington to revise its Taiwan policy. -This

article argues, however, that within a three-level theoretical framework guided by neoclassical realism, the

war has just accelerated the pace of U.S. Taiwan policy change initiated during the Trump presidency.

President Trump brought a drastic transformation in U.S. China policy, mainly due to America’s perceived

shift in the power distribution between the U.S. and China, along with mounting concerns about China’s

national governance system and its approach to foreign policy. As the perceived shift in power distribution

and escalating threat concerns persist, Washington is expected to play the “Taiwan card” more assertively and

reinforce the trend of “Ukrainization” in its Taiwan policy in the near future. Th-e Ukraine war would continue

to influence the evolution of Washington’s policy trajectories on Taiwan. However, the repercussions of the

war would still be limited in the light of the systemic pressures facing U.S. Taiwan policy.

5. 金钱并非万能：中国台湾“立委”的政治献金与提案联署合作（Money Is Not Everything:

Political Contributions and Legislative Cosponsorship in Chinese Taiwan）

陈超，上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院副教授

唐桦，厦门大学台湾研究院副教授

王蕊，厦门大学台湾研究院硕士研究生

【摘要】在党派之外，如何在充满激烈党派竞争的立法机构中推动共同提出提案？为回答这个问题，

本文利用台湾当局“监察院”和“立法院”发布的公开资料，建立了第九届“立法院”成员的两个网

络：贡献相似性网络（CSN）和联合提案网络（JPN）。CSN 通过政治捐赠将 2,649 家公司和 168 个

公司团体与立法者连接起来，而 JPN 则通过联合赞助将立法者彼此连接起来。结果表明，政治捐赠相

似性是影响立法者共同签署行为的重要因素，但其影响因立法主题而异。具体而言，收到相似公司捐

赠的立法者更有可能共同支持没有争议且不受公众反对的提案（“不确定的投票提案”），如金融和

工业发展提案。相反，政治捐赠相似性对“投票风险提案”（如劳工和人力资源政策以及环境和资源

政策）的共同赞助没有显著影响，因为这些提案容易引起社会争议和反弹。这些发现揭示了台湾立法

机构中“裙带资本主义”的具体特征。它们也暗示，在审视台湾的选举制度时，金钱政治和党派政治

同样重要，并且前者的逻辑并不完全与后者一致。

2024 年第 2 期（总第 14 期）

149

【原文】Beyond partisanship, what can foster cosponsorship of proposals in a legislature filled with intense

partisan competition? To answer this question, using public materials released by Taiwan’s Supervision Yuan

and Legislative Yuan, this article established two networks of members of the 9th Legislative Yuan: the

Contribution Similarity Network (CSN) and the Joint Proposal Network (JPN). The CSN connects 2,649

companies and 168 corporation groups with legislators through political donations, while the JPN connects

legislators to each other in terms of their cosponsorships. The results indicate that political contribution

similarity is an important factor in the co-signing behavior of legislators, but the influence varies by legislative

topic. Specifically, legislators who receive similar corporate donations are more likely to cosponsor proposals

that are not controversial and opposed by the public (“uncertain vote proposals”), such as financial and

industrial development proposals. In contrast, political contribution similarity has no significant effect on the

cosponsorship of “vote-risk proposals,” such as labor and human resources policies and environment and

resources policies, because these proposals are prone to social controversy and backlash. These findings reveal

the specific characteristics of “crony capitalism” in Taiwan’s legislature. They also imply that, when

examining the electoral system in Taiwan, money politics is as important as party politics, and the logic of the

former does not completely coincide with that of the latter.

6. 台湾第四核电厂的政治操控（Political Maneuvers on the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant

in Taiwan）

田弘，清华大学公共管理学院博士后

林冈，上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院特聘教授、台湾研究中心创始主任

【摘要】本文以双重视角分析台湾第四核电厂（FNPP）政策网络，重点关注制度和观念对政策过程的

影响。它将执政党划分为政策社群，主要反对党划分为政府间网络，并将问题网络确定为第三方。在

历史上，威权体制下的政策社群（国民党）主导了政策过程的三个阶段（议程设置、政策制定和决策

制定），推动了 FNPP 政策的实施。然而，民主化引入了更多的政策参与者，国民党利用 FNPP 解决

能源问题，而民进党则反对核能以获取更多选票，两者在政策社群和政府间网络角色之间交替。问题

网络则包括公民和社会组织，其通过社会运动和参与政策过程来影响政府决策。

【原文】This article narrates a dual perspective analysis of Taiwan’s Fourth Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP)

policy network, focusing on institutions and ideas’ impact on the policy process. It categorizes the ruling party

as policy community, the main opposition parties as the intergovernmental network, and identifies the issue

network as the third player. Historically, the policy community (KMT) in the authoritarian Taiwan dominated

the three stages of the policy process (agenda-setting, policy formulation, and decision-making), driving FNPP

policy implementation. However, democratization introduced more policy actors, with the KMT utilizing the

FNPP to address energy issues and the DPP opposing nuclear power to gain more votes, alternating between

policy community and intergovernmental network roles. The issue network comprises citizens and social

organizations, in influencing governmental decisions through social movements and participation in policy

process.

150

7. 中美紧张关系对人员流动的影响（The Impact of U.S.-China Tensions on People

Mobility）

王争，德蒙福特大学会计、金融和经济学院经济学副教授

唐莉，复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院公共行政系教授

曹聪，宁波诺丁汉大学商学院全职教授

周琢，上海社会科学院世界经济研究所副研究员

【摘要】利用月度航空客流的新数据，本文评估了中美紧张关系对从中国到美国的人员流入的影响。

本文发现，在 2017 年至 2019 年期间，与其他客源国相比，从中国到美国的航空客流下降了 6%。在

按地理位置区分的情况下，相对于其他美国机场，位于拥有大量中国学生的大学附近的美国机场从中

国起飞的乘客出现了超 10%的年度降幅。进一步的调查揭示，客流量的下降主要由于八月份入境旅客

减少，而这一下降始终比同期那些靠近旅游目的地的机场经历的下降更显著。这些发现为敌对政治氛

围可能对两个主要科学大国之间的国际人员流动产生不利影响提供了更新的证据。

【原文】Using novel monthly air passenger traffic data, we assess the impact of U.S.-China tensions on people

inflows from China to the U.S. We find that there was a 6 percent decline in air passenger flows from China

to the U.S. compared to other source countries during the period between 2017 and 2019. When differentiated

by geographical locations, relative to other U.S. airports, U.S. airports near universities with a significant

presence of Chinese students are found to have experienced a more than 10 percent annual drop in passengers

originating from China. A further investigation reveals that the decline in people inflows is mainly attributed

to the loss of passenger arrivals in August and that this decline is consistently more significant than the

decrease experienced by airports near tourist destinations during the same period. These findings provide

updated evidence of the detrimental effect a hostile political climate could have on international people

mobility between two major scientific powers.

8. 美国在亚太地区向中国发出的军事信号（2015-2022）（U.S. Military Signals to China

in the Asia-Pacific, 2015–2022）

漆海霞，清华大学国际关系系副教授

李明泽，外交学院国际关系研究所讲师

【摘要】近来，中美关系经历了从接触到遏制的战略转变。然而，双方发出的信号存在从绥靖到挑衅

的混合信号，使得双边关系的未来走向在这个关键时刻难以预测。美国在亚洲的军事存在以及中国的

反应的深层原因是什么？通过比较 2015 年至 2022 年间美国的 FONOPs、B-52 轰炸机行动和美国媒

体报道等信号，本文发现美国的动机可能是遏制潜在的\"挑战者\"并维持国内支持。信号成本与承诺可

靠性呈正相关关系。因此，美国选择不同的军事信号主要受到对威胁的认知和信号成本的影响。美国

选择高沉没成本的信号主要旨在遏制中国在南海的行动，而选择高观众成本的信号通常是为了维持国

内支持。因此，美国选择台前或幕后信号的决定可以解释为既受到国内考虑的影响，也受到外部威胁

认知的影响。

【原文】Recently, U.S.-China relations have witnessed a strategic transition from engagement to containment.

However, the mixed signals between the two sides, ranging from appeasement to provocation, make it difficult

2024 年第 2 期（总第 14 期）

151

at this critical crossroads to forecast the future of bilateral relations. What are the deep-seated reasons for the

U.S.’s military presence in Asia and China’s responses? By comparing such U.S. signals as FONOPs, B-52

bomber action, and U.S. media coverage from 2015 to 2022, we find that the U.S.’s motives may be to deter

a potential challenger and to sustain domestic support. The cost of signals relates positively to the reliability

of commitment. Therefore, the U.S.’s choice of different military signals is mainly affected by U.S.

perceptions of threat and signaling costs. Signals incurring high sunk costs are primarily intended to deter

China in the South China Sea, while signals at high audience cost are usually employed to maintain domestic

support. The U.S.’s selection of frontstage or offstage signals can hence be explained by both domestic

considerations and external threat perceptions.

9. 剖析中国高层领导的外交工作（The Anatomy of Diplomatic Work among China’s Top

Leaders）

曾伟峯，台湾政治大学国际关系研究中心助理研究员

【摘要】本文系统地回顾了中国领导人进行的外交活动，旨在深入了解中国对外事务的战略方针。研

究首先编制和分析了一份包含来自于中国外交部网站的 1908 份“领导人活动”报告的数据集，时间

跨度从 2017 年 11 月到 2020 年 1 月。文章分析了在接待外国政要、国际访问、外交活动的时间安排

以及每位领导负责监督政策的具体地区等方面的模式和趋势。通过分析这些模式，文章揭示了领导人

之间的外交职责的安排和分工，以及与每位领导关注的具体地区。本文的系统分析揭示了中国领导人

外交活动的性质和结构。这也为决策者提供了重新评估他们的策略并重新配置资源所需的基本信息，

以便更好地与中国进行接触。

【原文】This article systematically reviews the diplomatic activities carried out by China’s leaders, aiming

to gain insights into the nation’s strategic approach to foreign affairs. The research commenced by compiling

and analyzing a dataset comprising 1,908 reports on “leaders’ activities” sourced from the Ministry of Foreign

Affairs website, spanning the period from November 2017 to January 2020. We examined patterns and trends

in areas such as the reception of foreign dignitaries, international visits, the timing of diplomatic activities, and

the specific regions for which each leader was responsible for in overseeing policy. Analyzing these patterns

unveils the scheduling and division of diplomatic responsibilities among leaders, along with the specific

regions associated with each leader’s focus. Our systematic analysis sheds light on the nature and structure of

Chinese leaders’ diplomatic activities. It also provides policymakers with essential information to reassess

their strategies and reallocate their resources as they engage with China.

10. 在农村家庭中成为有价值的女儿：女性职业院校学生的关系认同和赋权性别主体性

（Being a Valuable Daughter in a Rural Family: The Relational Identity and Empowered

Gender Subjectivities of Female Vocational College Students）

Anita Koo，香港浸会大学社会学系教授

战洋，香港理工大学应用社会科学系文化人类学助理教授

152

【摘要】职业高等教育的迅速扩张、劳动力市场的崛起以及个体主义价值观的出现赋予了中国农村年

轻女性更多的自主权，使她们能够更自主地规划未来和构建自己的身份。本文通过深度访谈，探讨了

来自农村家庭的女性大学生接受职业高等教育的动机以及她们对教育和就业的重视程度。在调查这些

年轻女性为经济赋权和自我发展采用的策略时，本文发现了一种与她们强烈的愿望紧密联系的新的赋

权性别主体性，即成为原生父系家庭中有价值的女儿。她们的目标是通过顺利的学业到就业过渡，立

志为父母提供持续的经济、情感和身体支持，从而努力改变女儿在父系制度中的被贬低的角色。然而，

这种赋权机构不一定挑战劳动力市场的性别结构和女性在家庭中的主要照顾角色。该研究还强调了在

中国个体身份的关系性质，并突显了在中国农村社区中的社会、文化和经济的快速转型中，受过教育

的年轻女性性别主体性的复杂性。

【原文】The rapid expansion of vocational higher education, the labor market, and the emergence of

individualistic values have empowered the young generation of Chinese rural women, granting them more

autonomy in planning their futures and constructing their identities. This article explores the motivation for

vocational higher education and the meaning attached to education and employment among the female college

students from rural households, primarily through in-depth interviews. While investigating the strategies

young women employ for economic empowerment and self-development, we identify a new form of

empowered gender subjectivity highly tied to their strong desire to become valuable daughters within their

natal patrilineal families. They aim to transform the devalued role of daughters in the patriarchal system by

aspiring to provide continuous financial, emotional, and physical support for their parents through a smooth

school-to-work transition. This empowered agency, however, does not necessarily challenge the gender

structure of the labor market and the primary caregiving role of women in families. This study also underscores

the relational nature of individual identity in China and highlights the intricacies of educated young women’s

gendered subjectivities under the rapid social, cultural, and economic transitions in Chinese rural communities.

【编译：王诗涵】

【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

千合

`《Jl

玉

国政学人成立于2017年初， 于2018年10月改版升级， 专

注国外权威期刊前沿学术动态， 是国内首家大规模译介

国际关系权威外文期刊的公益平台。 至今为止， 国政学

人公众号拥有读者十余万人， 全媒体粉丝已超五十万。

为打破中外学术研究的信息隔闵， 国政学人团队开启并

实施了长达数年的学术编译计划， 始终秉待“立足全球视

野， 紧跟学术前沿“团队埋念， 目前已推出包括2000余篇

SSCI前沿编译、 20余本权威期刊前沿速递在内的诸多内

容， 初步搭建了解国际学术 前沿的便捷窗口。 创设以

来， 国政学人平台吸引了数百位来自海内外名校的青年

学者与高材生志愿加入， 现已成为本领域内最大规模的

学术公益团体。

在自媒体井喷式发展的当下， 国政学人团队致力于打造融媒体网络，

梊微信公众号、 微博、 bilibili、 喜马拉雅、 今H 头条、 抖音等新媒体

平台于一体。 除提供编译资源外， 针对日益多样化的受众， 国政学人

还设有专家访谈、 新著推荐与读书会、 经验分享会等栏目， 并发布了

诸多原创视频及音频作品。

＜＜国际关系前沿＞〉是国政学人学术共同体发起创办的公益性电子刊

物， 旨在述介国际关系领域具有开创性、 前沿性、 学埋性、 实证性、

思辨性的研究成果， 争取成为连接学界师生、 出版界刊物和政策制定

者的桥梁， 从而为国际关系学科的发展与国关类知识的传播共享微薄

之力。

lnternational Politics Scholars

几·oIc`｀i(”“'1小·“'I«miL. Compil,／tiOIl Pl,ItJOr/ll (？f'I/lm·”“timml Politi('`