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【编译：陈正兴】

【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

International Affairs，Vol.99，No.5，2023

1. 制造战争？俄罗斯方有关乌克兰的信息（Fabricating a war? Russian

(dis)information on Ukraine）

Elisabeth Johansson-Nogués，巴塞罗那国际研究学院副教授

Elena Şimanschi， 巴塞罗那自治大学政治学、公共政策和国际关系专业博士生

【摘要】战争宣传自古以来就是战争贩子重视的一部分，因此，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之前且在之后受到

俄罗斯国家控制媒体传播的宣传也就不足为奇了。俄罗斯的（虚假）信息宣传运动的更不寻常之处在

于，有关冲突的叙述是大量歪曲叙述或完全虚构的。本文探讨了俄罗斯在入侵乌克兰的背景下操纵国

内受众信息的内容和技术。我们还研究了冲突前 12 个月内公众对俄罗斯境内战争持续强劲支持的基

础，尽管这些支持大多是捏造的（虚假）信息。依靠政治心理学和传播理论，我们解释了情感和联想

记忆如何在俄罗斯公众对战争的持续认可中发挥了重要作用。研究结果表明，在缺乏对比和独立验证

的信息的情况下，有关乌克兰的即插即用且华而不实的媒体包的数量、频率和情感强度已经取代和扭

曲了俄罗斯普通人的联合社会监控过程。

【原文】Propaganda has been an age-old part of warmongering. It is thus no surprise that the Russian invasion

of Ukraine was preceded by, and continues to be fuelled by, propaganda transmitted by state-controlled

Russian media. What is more unusual about the Russian (dis)information campaigns is the sheer volume of

distorted narratives or complete fictional accounts about the conflict. This article explores the content and

technologies of Russian information manipulation of domestic audiences in the context of the invasion of

Ukraine. We also examine the bases for the sustained robust public support for the war within Russia during

the first 12 months of the conflict, despite being based on mostly fabricated (dis)information. Relying on

political psychology and communication theory we explain how emotions and associative memories have

played an important role in the Russian public's sustained approval to the war. Our findings point to that in the

absence of contrasted and independently-verified information, the volume, frequency, emotional intensity of

slick, plug-and-play media packages on Ukraine have acted to displace and distort the average Russian's

associative social monitoring processes.

2. 傲慢平衡：古典现实主义、自欺欺人和普京对乌克兰的战争（Hubris balancing:

classical realism, self-deception and Putin's war against Ukraine）

Ryuta Ito，广岛大学教授

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【摘要】普京为何决定在 2022 年出兵乌克兰？结构现实主义者认为这是一场预防性战争，具有应对

北约东扩的战略依据。然而，正如许多学者所说，普京的决策充满了各种非理性，这可以更好地概括

为过度平衡和古典现实主义的“傲慢”概念。劳伦斯·弗里德曼等人认为，解释普京过度平衡的关键

是运用进化心理学中的自欺欺人的概念，这也是古典现实主义中“傲慢”这一概念的科学基础。因此，

弗里德曼关于普京自欺欺人的论点，以及其他人将自欺欺人视为过度自信原因的一般论点将自欺欺人

引入了古典现实主义，以解决国际事务中的过度平衡难题。由此，“傲慢平衡”这一新颖的平衡概念

应运而生，即：超出实践可实现范围的非理性侵略性平衡。理论将傲慢平衡为理想类型有三种因果途

径（认知、情感和社会）：过度自信、愤怒和民族主义。作为一项合理性调查，本研究通过分析普京

对乌克兰发动战争的决定来说明傲慢的平衡。结果显示，正如傲慢平衡的逻辑所表明的那样，在过度

自信和对西方自由主义的愤怒的驱使下，普京决定通过推动排他性民族主义来入侵乌克兰。

【原文】Why did Putin decide to invade Ukraine in 2022? Structural realists regard it as a preventive war

with a strategic rationale in response to NATO's eastward expansion. However, as many scholars suggest,

Putin's decision-making is riddled with various irrationalities, which can be better framed as overbalancing

and the classical realist concept of ‘hubris’. Lawrence Freedman and others argue that a key to explaining

Putin's overbalancing is applying the concept of self-deception in evolutionary psychology, which can be the

scientific foundation of hubris in classical realism. Thus, Freedman's argument of Putin's self-deception and

others' general theses of self-deception as a cause of overconfidence led to the introduction of self-deception

into classical realism to solve the puzzle of overbalancing in international affairs. Thereby, the novel balancing

concept of ‘hubris balancing’ was developed: irrationally aggressive balancing that exceeds what is achievable

in practice. There are three causal pathways (cognitive, emotional and social) to hubris balancing as ideal types:

overconfidence, anger and nationalism. As a plausibility probe, hubris balancing is illustrated by analysing

Putin's decision to wage war against Ukraine. The result shows that, as the logic of hubris balancing suggests,

driven by overconfidence and anger towards western liberalism, Putin decided to invade Ukraine by driving

exclusive nationalism.

3. 保护责任的酷儿化（Queering the Responsibility to Protect）

Jess Gifkins，曼彻斯特大学高级讲师

Dean Cooper-Cunningham，哥本哈根大学政治学系国际关系助理教授

【摘要】保护责任的研究在二十多年来的研究中变得越来越交叉；然而令人惊讶的是，虽然早在大屠

杀期间酷儿就遭受过暴行迫害，但对酷儿群体的迫害研究仍然存在盲点。种族灭绝研究领域最近逐渐

开始涉足这一领域，本研究也更广泛地围绕四种 R2P 犯罪来界定酷儿迫害。在本文中，我们阐述了

将酷儿视角纳入预防暴行罪的理由和紧迫性。这不仅是对酷儿群体的关注，也是对酷儿人群的关注。

我们主张一种不断质疑所有权力关系的酷儿政治和道德观。我们概述了学术研究、政策和国家对保护

责任的理解方面的差距规模。由于 R2P 经常被西方国家视为外交政策问题，而全球南方国家则是 R2P

的对象，因此我们纳入了两个关于欧洲针对 LGBTI+人群不断升级的迫害的案例研究，即英国和匈牙

利。我们认为，R2P 研究和政策界应该消除我们所说的“标准化的蒙蔽”，并更广泛地参与预防暴行

的交叉方法。

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【原文】Research on the Responsibility to Protect has become increasingly intersectional with over two

decades of research; however, there remains a blind spot on the persecution of queer people. This is surprising

given that queer people have been persecuted in atrocity crimes as far back as the Holocaust. While the field

of genocide studies has recently begun to engage with this area, we frame queer persecution more broadly

around the four R2P crimes. In this article we set out the rationale and urgency for including a queer lens in

the prevention of atrocity crimes. This is not only about a focus on queer people; we argue for a queer politics

and ethics that ceaselessly interrogates all relations of power. We outline the scale of the gap in academic

research, policy and state understandings of R2P. Since R2P is often framed as a foreign policy matter by

western states, with the global South as the object of R2P, we include two case-studies on escalating

persecution against LGBTI+ people in Europe: the United Kingdom and Hungary. We argue that the R2P

research and policy communities should remove what we call the ‘cishetronormative blindfold’ and engage

more broadly with intersectional approaches to atrocity prevention.

4. 中国眼中的自我与他者：鼻子的国际政治（Chinese visions of self and Other: the

international politics of noses）

William A Callahan，伦敦政治经济学院国际关系教授

【摘要】中国如何看待世界？虽然已经有很多关于“如何最好地将中国的国际关系视为不排斥他者的

跨文化关系”的文章，但本文探讨了如何通过中国人的面孔来形象化自我/他者关系，特别是如何通过

构建中国人形象的标志性图像，构建中国人自我，借此与“大鼻子外国人”形成对比。本研究采用解

释主义的方法来考虑社会关系和国际关系的相互作用，以了解“外表”和“外部关系”在中国理论和

实践中如何相互影响。本文运用中国古典概念“深目高鼻”来比较唐朝、朝鲜战争以及二十世纪中国

和中国台湾地区标志性的中国鼻子图像。这种关键的并置展示了外国人在中国等级社会体系中，如何

被看作为朋友和敌人。本文运用视觉的国际关系（IR）研究方法，使我们重新审视外交实际上充满情

感政治色彩的事实，从而理解中国的意识形态世界观如何与其艺术家、学者和官员的审美世界观产生

共鸣。世界观决定了外交政策制定者如何构建外交政策问题，进而决定外交政策解决方案，因此这一

问题是国际关系学者应当关心的。

【原文】How does China view the world? While much has been written about how China's international

relations are best seen as intercultural relations that do not exclude the Other, this article examines how

self/Other relations are visualized in terms of the human face in China, in particular through iconic images that

construct the Chinese self with and against foreigners with large noses. It employs interpretivist methods to

consider the interplay of social relations and international relations in order to see how ‘external appearance’

and ‘external relations’ inform each other in Chinese theory and practice. It mobilizes the classical Chinese

concept ‘deep-set eyes and high-bridged nose’ to compare iconic Chinese images of noses from the Tang

dynasty, the Korean War, and twenty-first century China and Taiwan. This critical juxtaposition shows how

foreigners are visualized as both friends and enemies in a hierarchical social system. The article's use of visual

International Relations (IR) methods enables us to re-examine foreign affairs as a site of affective politics, and

thus appreciate how China's ideological world-view resonates with how its artists, scholars and officials

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aesthetically view the world. This is a concern for IR scholars because world-views shape how foreign policymakers frame foreign policy problems—and thus foreign policy solutions.

5. 亚洲人口老龄化与国家安全（Population ageing and national security in Asia）

Jennifer D Sciubba，美国外交关系协会成员

【摘要】人口老龄化在亚太地区强国中十分普遍，但人口老龄化的影响和应对措施各不相同，这一情

况与最初的理论预期并不完全相符。为什么这些国家的外交政策比其人口预期的更加激进或是军国主

义？理解人口和国家安全的关键是从制度角度认识人口变化如何与其他因素相互作用。亚太地区强国

之间的机构多种多样，这能够解释了它们外交政策的一些差异，同时旨在应对或适应这些人口变化的

政策能够解释其余的部分。随着人口老龄化正在成为全球主要的人口趋势，了解老龄化如何影响国家

的外部行为变得越来越重要。想要预测人口老龄化影响，必须准确考虑机构调节人口变化的方式，否

则将会产生盟友和对手的能力和意图被严重低估或高估的风险。对制度安排和军事人力调整的讨论表

明，迄今为止人口老龄化的影响在中国和俄罗斯被淡化，而日本处于管理人口老龄化导致经济风险的

有理位置。

【原文】Population aging is pervasive in powerful states in the Asia—Pacific region, but the effects of and

responses to it vary in ways that do not neatly fit with what initial theories anticipated. Why have many of

these states' foreign policies been far more aggressive or militaristic than expected for their demographics?

The key to understanding population and national security is an institutional perspective that recognizes how

demographic changes interact with other factors. The range of institutions among the Asia—Pacific powers

explains some of the variation in their foreign policies; policies intended to respond to or adapt to those

demographic shifts explain the rest. Understanding how aging shapes states' external behaviours is

increasingly important as population aging is becoming the predominant demographic trend globally. Those

forecasting the effects of population aging must accurately account for the ways institutions mediate

demographic change, or risk severely underestimating or overestimating the capabilities and intentions of allies

and adversaries. An illustrative discussion of institutional arrangements and military manpower adaptations

demonstrates why the effect of population aging has been diluted in China and Russia thus far but suggests

that Japan is well positioned to manage the economic risks posed by an aging population.

【编译：黄烨】

【责任编辑：严瑾怡】

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《世界政治》（World Politics）

World Politics， Vol. 75, No.4, 2023

1. 投票反对独裁（Voting Against Autocracy）

Milan W. Svolik，美国耶鲁大学政治学教授

【摘要】选民何时以及如何惩罚破坏民主的政治家？为了研究公众在民主倒退中的作用，本文制定了

一个概念框架，区分了三种机制：选票转移、强烈反对和不参与。第一种机制涉及选民从破坏民主的

候选人转向不破坏民主的候选人；而另外两种机制涉及选民在投票和弃权之间的转变。本文通过结合

一系列一手调查实验、传统调查和 2019 年伊斯坦布尔市长选举的准实验提供的证据，估算了每种机

制的影响程度。在该选举中，执政党正义与发展党（AKP）试图推翻其失败的选举结果。研究发现，

尽管选票转移和强烈反对在正义与发展党最终失败中发挥了最大作用，但在伊斯坦布尔选民的某个子

集中，三种机制都起到了民主检验的作用。说服、动员甚至解除动员（demobilization）都是制衡当选

政治家威权主义倾向的有效工具。

【原文】When and how do voters punish politicians for subverting democracy? To investigate the role of the

public in democratic backsliding, I develop a conceptual framework that differentiates among three

mechanisms: vote switching, backlash, and disengagement. The first mechanism entails defection by voters

from a candidate who undermines democracy to one who does not; the latter two mechanisms entail transitions

between voting and abstention. I estimate the magnitude of each mechanism by combining evidence from a

series of original survey experiments, traditional surveys, and a quasi-experiment afforded by the rerun of the

2019 Istanbul mayoral election, in which the governing party, AKP, attempted to overturn the result of an

election that it had lost. I find that although vote switching and backlash contributed to theAKP’s eventual

defeat the most, each of the three mechanisms served as a democratic check in some subset of the Istanbul

electorate. Persuasion, mobilization, and even demobilization are all viable tools for curbing the authoritarian

tendencies of elected politicians.

2. 民族主义与扭转国家规模的迷思（Nationalism and the Puzzle of Reversing State

Size）

《世界政治》（World Politics）创刊于 1948 年，是享誉国

际的政治科学季刊，内容涵盖国际关系和政治科学的各个

领域，其主编是 Deborah J. Yashar。该期刊欢迎的投稿类

型有具有理论和实证贡献的研究类文章，以及有关国际关

系和比较政治问题的评论性文章。2020 年该期刊的影响

因子为 3.444，在 94 种国际关系类期刊中位列第 18 名，

在 182 种政治科学类期刊中位列第 44 名。

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Lars-Erik Cederman，瑞士苏黎世联邦理工学院国际冲突研究教授

Luc Girardin，瑞士苏黎世联邦理工学院国际冲突研究专职计算机/数据科学家

Carl Müller-Crepon，英国伦敦政治经济学院政府系助理教授

【摘要】在几个世纪的历史时期内，国家领土面积都在不断扩大，但到 19 世纪末却开始缩小，而且

这种趋势仍在继续。本文认为，族裔民族主义（ethnic nationalism）引发的进程是这一趋势的主要驱动

力。本文的实证方法基于 19 世纪以来有关国家边界和民族地理的时变空间数据。通过关注与民族国

家理想的偏差，本文提出国家内部的民族分裂会导致国家规模的减小，而跨境的主体民族群体存在则

更可能导致国家扩张。这一分析涵盖了系统和国家层面，利用了国际关系二元水平的信息，以捕捉边

界变化的特定民族主义过程，如民族分裂、统一和民族复辟。本文发现，尽管民族主义对国家领土既

有整合作用，也有瓦解作用，但后者的影响占主导地位。

【原文】Having increased for centuries, territorial state size began to decline toward the end of the nineteenth

century and has continued to do so. The authors argue that processes triggered by ethnic nationalism are the

main drivers of this development. Their empirical approach relies on time-varying spatial data on state borders

and ethnic geography since the nineteenth century. Focusing on deviations from the nation-state ideal, the

authors postulate that state internal ethnic fragmentation leads to reduction in state size and that the crossborder presence of dominant ethnic groups makes state expansion more likely. Conducted at the systemic and

state levels, the analysis exploits information at the interstate dyadic level to capture specific nationalist

processes of border change, such as ethnic secession, unification, and irredentism. The authors find that

although nationalism exerts both integrating and disintegrating effects on states' territories, it is the latter

impact that has dominated.

3. 民主与大众对科学的怀疑（Democracy and Mass Skepticism of Science）

Junyan Jiang（蒋俊彦），美国哥伦比亚大学政治学助理教授

Kinman Wan，香港岭南大学政府与国际事务研究助理教授

【摘要】自启蒙时代以来，许多思想家和哲学家都将民主和科学视为现代性的两个相辅相成的方面。

本文强调了两者之间的紧张关系，认为当代民主的某些方面可能会加剧大众的反智倾向，从而潜在地

阻碍科学进步。本文用实证策略分析了一项新的全球科学舆论调查，利用了民主经验中跨国和跨群体

的差异，结果表明，民主国家中受教育程度较低的公民比非民主国家的公民更不信任科学。进一步的

分析表明，民主国家怀疑主义的增加并不是宗教信仰增强或科学素养减弱的结果；相反，它更有可能

是由合法化模式的转变所驱动，这种转变降低了国家作为科学的主要公共倡导者的能力和意愿。本文

的发现揭示了许多长期民主国家中攻击科学的制度根源。

【原文】Since the Age of Enlightenment, many thinkers and philosophers have viewed democracy and science

as two aspects of modernity that reinforce each other. This article highlights a tension between the two by

arguing that certain aspects of contemporary democracy may aggravate the mass public's anti-intellectual

tendency and thus potentially hinder scientific progress. The authors analyze a new global survey of public

opinion on science using empirical strategies that exploit cross-country and cross-cohort variations in

experience with democracy, and show that less-educated citizens in democracies distrust science much more

than do their counterparts in nondemocracies. Further analyses suggest that the increase in skepticism in

democracies is not the result of greater religiosity or weaker scientific literacy; instead, it is more likely driven

by a shift in the mode of legitimation, which reduces states’ ability and willingness to act as key public

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advocates for science. These findings shed light on the institutional sources of science-bashing in many

longstanding democracies.

4. 守护者去哪儿了？欧盟的执法和超国家的宽容政治（Where Have the Guardians

Gone? Law Enforcement and the Politics of Supranational Forbearance in the

European Union）

R. Daniel Kelemen，美国乔治城大学麦考特公共政策学主席法学教授、战略与国际研究中心 (CSIS)

欧洲、俄罗斯和欧亚项目的高级研究员

Tommaso Pavone，加拿大多伦多大学政治学系欧洲政治学助理教授、挪威奥斯陆大学客座研究员

【摘要】为什么一个超国家的法律执行机构突然停止行使其权力？本文提出超国家政治的“宽容”理论，

即故意不执行法律，以及它们是如何因自由裁量权与政府间政策制定之间的交叉压力而产生的。本文

关注一个典型的超国家法律执行机构——欧洲委员会——为何不愿对欧盟成员国启动违法诉讼。虽然

欧洲委员会作为一体化引擎的决策作用长期备受争议，但其作为条约监护者的监察作用被认为争议较

小。然而，2004 年后，欧洲委员会启动的违法诉讼的数量急剧下降。本文证明，欧洲委员会的政治领

导层对积极执法削弱了对其政策议程的政府支持而感到担忧。通过控制管理执法的官员并与政府保持

和解对话，欧盟委员会牺牲了其维护条约的作用来维持其作为一体化引擎的作用。本文的研究结果强

调了国际机构政治化的后果，以及兼任检察官和政策制定者的行政人员所面临的权衡。

【原文】Why would a supranational law enforcer suddenly refrain from wielding its powers? The authors

theorize the supranational politics of forbearance—the deliberate underenforcement of the law—and explain

how they arise from cross-pressures between prosecutorial discretion and intergovernmental policy-making.

The article then traces why an exemplary supranational enforcer—the European Commission—became

reluctant to launch infringements against European Union member states. While the Commission's policymaking role as engine of integration has been controversial, its prosecutorial role as guardian of the Treaties

has been viewed as less contentious. Yet after 2004, infringements launched by the Commission plummeted.

The authors demonstrate that the Commission's political leadership grew alarmed that aggressive enforcement

was eroding intergovernmental support for its policy agenda. By reining in the bureaucrats managing

enforcement and embracing conciliatory dialogues with governments, the Commission sacrificed its role as

guardian of the Treaties to safeguard its role as engine of integration. The article's findings highlight the

consequences of politicizing international institutions and the tradeoffs facing executives double-hatting as

prosecutors and policymakers.

5. 疫苗外交：COVID-19 疫苗分发如何增加拉丁美洲对外国政府的信任（Vaccine

Diplomacy: How COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution in Latin America Increases Trust

in Foreign Governments）

Elena Barham，美国哥伦比亚大学政治学博士候选人

Sarah Zukerman Daly，美国哥伦比亚大学政治学副教授

Julian E. Gerez，美国哥伦比亚大学政治学博士候选人

John Marshall，美国哥伦比亚大学政治学教授

Oscar Pocasangre，新美国政治改革项目高级数据分析师，哥伦比亚大学政治学博士

【摘要】疫苗研发国在全球南方的疫苗分发为其创造了提升国际声誉的机会。本文利用 2021 年初进

行的固定样本调查，评估了疫苗外交是否影响了拉丁美洲六个国家对外国政府的信任。在接种疫苗的

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受访者中，他们对疫苗研发国政府的信任相对于对其他外国政府的信任有所增加。此外，提供有关受

访者的国内疫苗分发总量的信息，增加了符合接种条件的受访者对提供更多疫苗的国家政府的信任。

在每种情况下，更多的信任主要反映了对共同利益动机的最新看法。本文的实证研究结果表明，疫苗

研发国的疫苗分发——尤其是来自中国的——可以培养有利的国际舆论。这些有利的舆论可能进一步

促进这些大国在经济、政治或军事外交政策目标方面的实现。

【原文】Vaccine distribution in the Global South has created opportunities for vaccine-developing countries

to improve their international reputations. Leveraging a panel survey conducted in early 2021, this article

evaluates whether vaccine diplomacy affects trust in foreign governments in six Latin American countries.

Among vaccinated respondents, trust in the government of the country that they believed developed their

vaccine increased relative to trust in the governments of other foreign powers. Furthermore, providing

information about the aggregate distribution of vaccines within a respondent's country increased vaccineeligible respondents' trust in the governments of countries from which more vaccines were delivered. In each

case, greater trust principally reflects updated perceptions of a common good motivation. The article's

empirical findings suggest that vaccine distribution—especially by China, but for other vaccine-developing

countries as well—can cultivate favorable international public opinion. These favorable opinions may in turn

facilitate great powers' economic, political, or military foreign policy goals.

【编译：林怡娉】

【责任编辑：封欣怡】

《国际研究评论》（Review of International Studies）

Review of International Studies， Vol. 49, No. 5, 2023

1. 存在主义与国际关系：深陷其中（Existentialism and International Relations: In it

up to our necks）

Andrew R. Hom，英国爱丁堡大学社会与政治学系国际关系高级讲师，《国际研究评论》联合主编

Cian O’Driscoll，澳大利亚国立大学珊瑚贝尔亚太事务学院教授

【摘要】本文想要探讨，当代国际关系学术与存在主义的知识和文化传统之间有什么关系？我们的学

科是如何受到存在主义思想的启发和激励的？存在主义是需要被国际关系学者恢复、主张和接受的遗

《国际研究评论》（Review of International Studies）是由

剑桥大学出版社代表英国国际研究协会出版且同行评审

的国际关系学术期刊，其前身为 British Journal of

International Studies (1975 - 1980)。该期刊致力于反映全

球政治的性质变化和新兴的政治挑战，旨在为国际社会搭

建一个可供辩论的平台用以讨论当下紧迫的全球议题。

2020 年该期刊的影响因子为 2.73。

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产，还是需要逃避的阴影？这些问题并非纯粹理论意义上的。无论彼时还是此时，思考这些问题都具

有实际和政治方面的原因。生活在一个被称之为“焦虑时代”的时期，我们发现自己几乎每时每刻都面

临着存在主义问题和存在主义思想。然而，目前尚不清楚这个貌似存在主义的时刻究竟有多大的重要

性和意义。存在主义对当代国际关系有什么借鉴意涵，或者仅仅是在奉承欺骗？本文认为，考虑存在

主义与国际关系和全球政治的关系的时机已经成熟。这是本文的目的，也是本期特刊文章的目的。

【原文】What, this essay asks, is the relation between contemporary IR scholarship and the existentialist

intellectual and cultural tradition? How is our discipline informed and animated by existentialist thinking? Is

existentialism a heritage to be recovered, claimed, and embraced by IR scholars, or a shadow to be escaped?

And what resources does it furnish us for thinking through the kind of issues that IR scholars are called upon

to grapple with today? These questions are not purely theoretical. There are practical and political reasons, not

only for considering them, but for considering them now. Living through what has been termed an unfolding

‘Age of Anxiety’, we find ourselves confronted by existential questions and existentialist ideas at almost every

turn. It is, however, unclear how substantive or meaningful this apparently existentialist moment truly is. Does

existentialism have something to say to contemporary IR, or does it flatter to deceive? We think the time is

ripe to take stock of existentialism as it relates to IR and global politics. This is the purpose of this article and

of the collection of essays it introduces.

2. “没有人可以关上人类死去的眼睛”：萨特、阿隆和核时代存在主义的局限（‘No

one around to shut the dead eyes of the human race’: Sartre, Aron, and the limits of

existentialism in the Nuclear Age）

Benjamin Zala，澳大利亚国立大学国际关系专业高级讲师，珊瑚贝尔亚洲及太平洋学院研究员

【摘要】核时代的定义源于“存在威胁”（existential threat）的概念。单凭一类武器就能摧毁整个人类

社会，引发了关于人类存在的深刻问题，甚至提供了一种新的物种灭绝形式——“热核灭绝”

（thermonuclear omnicide）。不出所料，存在主义是在原子弹阴影下站稳脚跟的哲学。本文探讨了应

对核危险的存在主义方法的可能性和局限性，对比了两位早期存在主义核心人物的观点：让·保罗·萨

特和雷蒙·阿隆。萨特对核战争的存在威胁表达了道德方面的愤慨，谴责推动军备竞赛的冷战政治的

“虚幻性”，并提出了拒绝军国主义社会规范的存在主义呼吁。阿隆是早期国际关系现实主义的关键人

物，他以拒绝存在主义而闻名，提出应为国际社会建立规范以更好地制约核武器决策。本文将萨特和

阿隆在二战后的讨论带入新世纪，认为核武器带来的持续甚至日益增长的威胁凸显了萨特方法在指导

现代生活中真实存在方面的局限性。相反，本文支持阿隆更为保守的方法，但也借鉴存在主义对其进

行扩展，为了人类的生存而加强核禁忌，将其作为一项持久而紧迫的政治工程。当国际关系学者和分

析人士再次对全球秩序脆弱的规范提出批评，并推测“第三次核时代”的到来之际，对存在威胁的政治

及其所带来的艰难选择进行理论反思仍然是国际关系理论工具箱中不可或缺的一部分。虽然萨特和其

他存在主义者令人信服地认为“存在”先于“本质”，但阿隆提醒我们，“生存”仍然是两者的先决条件。

【原文】The Nuclear Age is said to be defined by the notion of existential threat. The ability to destroy human

societies in their entirety with a single class of weaponry raises profound questions about human existence. It

even gives us a new form of species extinction – ‘thermonuclear omnicide’. Unsurprisingly, existentialism

was a philosophy that found its feet in the shadow of the bomb. This article explores the possibilities and limits

of an existentialist approach to nuclear dangers. It contrasts the views of two figures central to early

existentialism: Jean-Paul Sartre and Raymond Aron. Sartre responded to the existential threat of nuclear war

with moral outrage about the ‘unreality’ of the Cold War politics driving the arms race and an existentialist

call to reject militaristic social norms. Aron, a key figure in early IR realism, famously rejected existentialism

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and turned instead to outlining norms for an international society that might better restrain nuclear-armed

decision-makers. Bringing Sartre’s and Aron’s post-Second World War discussions into the new century, this

article argues that the ongoing, and even growing, threats posed by nuclear weapons highlight the limits of

Sartre’s approach as a guide to authentic existence in modern life. Instead, it supports Aron’s more

conservative approach but also draws on Existentialism to extend it, strengthening the nuclear taboo for the

sake of human survival as a persistent but urgent political project. At a moment in IR when scholars and other

analysts are once again critiquing the fragile norms of global order and speculating about the dawn of a ‘Third

Nuclear Age’, theoretical reflection on the politics of existential threats and the hard choices they entail remain

indispensable aspects of IR’s theoretical toolkit. While Sartre and other existentialists argued convincingly

that existence precedes essence, Aron reminds us that survival remains a precondition for both.

3. 核武器、存在主义和国际关系：安德斯、巴拉德和灭绝时代的人类状况（Nuclear

weapons, existentialism, and International Relations: Anders, Ballard, and the

human condition in the age of extinction）

Rens van Munster，丹麦国际问题研究所高级研究员

【摘要】国际关系学者越来越多地转向存在主义者的著作，以理解 21 世纪多重且复杂的地球危机。

本文认为两位战后知识分子，格尔·安德斯（1902-1992）和 J·D·巴拉德（1930-2009），为此类学术研

究提供了丰富的知识遗产和启发。两位作者在战后技术加速和核武器发展的背景下，批判且创造性地

重新审视了存在主义的核心思想。对安德斯和巴拉德来说，核武器象征着与技术现代性相关的病症，

而且是最极端的表现：大规模消费、惊人的暴力、衰微的情感，以及人类在心理上越来越无法处理和

掌握科学技术的破坏性能力。为了对抗这些趋势，他们都坚定地依靠超现实主义来增强人类的想象力，

将其作为个人和社会变革的催化剂。本文认为他们的研究提供了一个机会，将核武器在国际关系中的

研究与更广泛的存在主义问题重新联系起来，并表明他们各自试图将人类在核时代的前景展望为“走

向灭绝”。对近来试图将国际关系重新集中于关于地球的灭绝想象的研究而言，两位学者的研究具有

重要的借鉴意义。

【原文】IR scholars increasingly turn to the writings of Existentialists to make sense of the multiple and

entangled planetary crises that characterise the twenty-first century. In this article, I argue that two postwar

intellectuals, Günther Anders (1902–1992) and J. G. Ballard (1930–2009), offer a rich intellectual ancestry

and inspiration to such scholarship. Both authors critically and creatively reworked central Existentialist ideas

in the context of postwar technological acceleration and the development of nuclear weapons. To Anders and

Ballard, nuclear weapons symbolised, and were the most extreme manifestation of, the pathologies they

associated with technological modernity: mass consumption, spectacular violence, a deadening of affect, and

an increased inability of humans to psychologically process and grasp the destructive capacities of science and

technology. To counter these trends, they both firmly relied on Surrealism to bolster the human imagination

as a catalysator for personal and social transformation. I argue that their work offers an opportunity to

reconnect the study of nuclear weapons in IR to broader existentialist questions and suggest that their

respective attempts to foreground human being in the nuclear age as ‘being-towards-extinction’ holds

important lessons for recent attempts to recentre the study of IR around planetary imaginaries of extinction.

4. 玛丽·雪莱的《最后之人》：存在主义和国际关系与后世界末日流行病小说的相遇

（Mary Shelley's The Last Man: Existentialism and IR meet the post-apocalyptic

pandemic novel）

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Eileen M. Hunt，美国圣母大学政治科学教授，那诺维奇欧洲研究所研究员，兼任性别研究教师

【摘要】玛丽·雪莱利用国际思想的理念创作了现代政治科幻小说（poliscifi）三个新的子类型：后世

界末日、存在主义和反乌托邦。她的两部重要的政治科幻作品《弗兰肯斯坦》（1818）和《最后之人》

（1826）都探讨了人类对更广泛环境进行技术和文化干预所引发的社会问题。本文不仅将《最后之人》

作为第一部现代后世界末日流行病小说，而且将其作为存在主义传统、反乌托邦文学、以及两者与本

文称之为“文学国际关系”交汇的重要来源。比较《最后之人》及其可能的来源和影响——从修昔底德

和瓦泰尔到奥威尔和加缪——揭示了雪莱对人际冲突和国际冲突重叠问题的伦理和政治关注。《最后

之人》戏剧化地描述了人际冲突如果不加以控制，会如何演变成更广泛的社会政治不公正，包括暴力、

战争和其他人为灾难，如物种灭绝、流行病，以及更多隐喻性的“存在主义”瘟疫，如孤独和绝望。尽

管包含了黑暗的主题和遗产，雪莱作为十九世纪伟大的灾难小说家，也激发了玛格丽特·阿特伍德、奥

克塔维亚·巴特勒和艾米丽·圣约翰·曼德尔对女权主义政治中的危机和冲突做出真正充满希望的后世

界末日存在主义回应。

【原文】Mary Shelley mined the ideas of international thought to help develop three new subgenres of modern

political science fiction (‘poliscifi’): post-apocalyptic, existential, and dystopian. Her two great works of

poliscifi, Frankenstein (1818), and The Last Man (1826) – confront the social problems that arise from

humanity's technological and cultural interventions in the wider environment. This article recovers The Last

Man not only as the first modern post-apocalyptic pandemic novel, but also as an important source for the

existentialist tradition, dystopian literature, and their intersections with what I call ‘Literary IR’. Comparing

The Last Man with its probable sources and influences – from Thucydides and Vattel to Orwell and Camus –

reveals Shelley's ethical and political concerns with the overlapping problems of interpersonal and

international conflict. The Last Man dramatises how interpersonal conflict, if left unchecked, can spiral into

the wider sociopolitical injustices of violence, war, and other human-made disasters such as species extinction,

pandemics, and more metaphorical ‘existential’ plagues like loneliness and despair. Despite these dark themes

and legacies, Shelley's authorship of the great plague novel of the nineteenth century also inspired a truly

hopeful post-apocalyptic existential response to crisis and conflict in feminist poliscifi by Margaret Atwood,

Octavia Butler, and Emily St. John Mandel.

5. 国际关系该如何应对“世界末日”？人类世的存在焦虑和可能性（How should IR

deal with the “end of the world”? Existential anxieties and possibilities in the

Anthropocene）

Dahlia Simangan，IDEC 研究所、和平与可持续发展教育与研究网络（NERPS）及广岛大学人文社

会科学研究生院副教授

【摘要】人类世（Anthropocene），意指一个人类影响地球的新地质时代，已不再是国际关系领域的

新面孔。一些学者已经认识到人类世对理论化国际关系的价值和危险。本文侧重于源自国际关系与人

类世交互中的存在主义问题和思想，特别关注围绕人类物种灭绝、“人类”（Anthropos）的意义以及人

类对管理地球产生的焦虑。通过借鉴关于这些身体、精神和道德焦虑的学术话语，本文认为存在主义

思维有助于揭示国际关系的人类中心主义、普遍主义和傲慢倾向，这在更广泛的人类世话语中也是普

遍存在的。存在主义还提醒我们，在这个新地质时代，尽管缺乏确定性，但我们可以自由地探索各种

可能性，重新构想人类和国际关系作为一门学科的地位。因此，存在主义揭示了国际关系与人类世带

来的悖论和不确定性之间的不和谐之处，同时提供了通向理论化“世界末日”的途径。

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【原文】The Anthropocene, a proposed new geological age marking the planetary impact of humanity, is no

longer a newcomer to the field of International Relations (IR). Several scholars have recognised the value, as

well as the danger, of the Anthropocene for theorising international relations. This article focuses on the

existentialist questions and ideas derived from IR’s engagement with the Anthropocene, particularly on the

anxieties surrounding the extinction of the human species, the meaning of the Anthropos, and humanity’s

planetary stewardship. By drawing on scholarly discourses on these physical, spiritual, and moral anxieties, I

argue that existentialist thinking helps expose IR’s anthropocentric, universalist, and hubristic tendencies,

which are also prevalent in the broader Anthropocene discourse. It also serves as a reminder of the freedom to

explore possibilities, albeit with a lack of certainty, for reimagining the place of humanity and IR as a discipline

in this new geological age. Therefore, existentialism reveals IR’s dissonance with the paradoxes and

uncertainties that the Anthropocene brings while offering a path toward theorising the “end of the world”.

6. 衷心的真理：走向存在主义的战争伦理（Heartfelt truths: Towards an existentialist

ethics of war）

Cian O'Driscoll，澳大利亚国立大学珊瑚贝尔亚太事务学院教授

【摘要】正义战争理论似乎与其所声称管理的实践——战争——日益疏离。作为一种越来越抽象和深

奥的论述，它似乎与实际战争泥泞和血腥的现实相去甚远。这反映了研究战争伦理和研究战争亲身经

历之间更为广泛的脱节。为解决这个问题，本文提出一个问题：我们如何使正义战争思想重新成为一

种“活生生的”理论？本文认为可以通过恢复与存在主义的历史对话，将正义战争理论与战争的生活经

验重新联系起来。通过运用艾伯特·加缪关于政治暴力著作的视角来解读正义战争理论，从而发展了

这一立场。本文结论在于，加缪的政治思想为正义战争理论模式的发展提供了一系列标识，这种模式

将战争的亲身经历置于思考战争伦理的核心。

【原文】Just war theory appears ever more alienated from the practice it ostensibly regulates, warfare. An

increasingly abstract and esoteric discourse, it can seem very remote from the mud-and-blood actualities of

warfare. This is reflective of a broader disconnect between the study of, on the one hand, the ethics of war,

and, on the other, the lived experience of war. Seeking to address this problem, this article asks: How can we

recentre just war thinking as a ‘lived’ theory? It proposes that we can reconnect just war theory to the lived

experience of warfare by restoring its historical dialogue with existentialism. It develops this position by

reading just war theory through the prism of Albert Camus's writings on political violence. It concludes that

Camus's political thoughts provides a set of signposts for the development of a mode of just war theorising

that places that the lived experience of warfare at the heart of our ethical thinking about war.

7. 海德格尔的遗产：真实性的时间政治，过去和现在（Heidegger’s heritage: The

temporal politics of authenticity, then and now）

Andrew R. Hom，英国爱丁堡大学社会与政治学系国际关系高级讲师，《国际研究评论》联合主编

【摘要】国际关系是具有哲学和时间敏感性的学科。然而奇怪的是，被广泛认为是二十世纪最重要的

哲学家的马丁·海德格尔直到最近才开始受到该学科关注。同样值得注意的是，在国际关系开始应对

右翼极端主义问题时，并未涉及海德格尔的法西斯主义政治。通过仔细研读海德格尔对时间中存在的

描述，本文认为海德格尔在其巨著和最后的日记中预示了许多存在主义讨论，但他对时间、暂时性和

真实存在的特殊概念使政治生活濒临危险。仔细审视海德格尔思想的概念和实践结果，本文追溯了其

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主张的关键冲突，即为了实现真正的自我，我们必须在通往死亡的道路上克服社会时间。这种对抗鼓

励了过度个性化和侵略性的思想和行动习惯，拒绝了共存的可能性。我们可以从海德格尔对真实性的

痴迷如何随着时间的推移将他推向纳粹主义的深渊，以及他的存在主义话语如何在今天的右翼复兴中

回响看到这一点。将真实性放在当时和现在进行对比有助于突显海德格尔存在主义和当今存在主义政

治的独特时间动态。

【原文】For a discipline as philosophically and temporally sensitive as International Relations, it is curious

that Martin Heidegger, widely considered the most important philosopher of the twentieth century, has only

recently begun to receive disciplinary attention. It is also noteworthy that as IR begins to grapple with rightwing extremism, it has not addressed Heidegger’s fascist politics. Conducting a close reading of his account

of existence in time, this article argues that from his magnum opus to his final diaries, Heidegger prefigured

many existentialist discussions, but his particular conceptualisations of time, temporality, and authentic Being

lent political life a dangerous edge. Scrutinising both the conceptual and practical consequences of Heidegger’s

thought, this article traces key tensions in his claims that, to realise true Selfhood, we must overcome social

time on the road to death. This antagonism encourages overly individuated and aggressive habits of thought

and action that reject the possibilities of co-existence. We can see this in how Heidegger’s obsession with

authenticity over time pushed him deeper into Nazism, and in the ways that his existential vernacular resounds

through today’s right-wing renaissance. Juxtaposing authenticity, then and now, helps draw out the

distinctively temporal dynamics of Heidegger’s existentialism as well as the existential politics of our time.

8. 本体论安全、神话和存在主义（Ontological security, myth, and existentialism）

Xander Kirke，英国诺森比亚大学社会科学系助理教授

Brent J. Steele，美国犹他大学政治学系教授，《全球研究季刊》联合主编

【摘要】本文通过考察在本体论安全研究中重新出现的存在主义主题为本期特刊做出了贡献，并通过

提出有关神话和本体安全功能的未充分探讨且相互交叠的领域来实现这一目标。通过讲述、重述和调

整神话以适应“存在需求”（existential needs）的过程，需要避免布卢门贝格所谓的“现实的绝对主义”

（absolutism of reality）。本文区分了此处在本体论安全研究中引入存在主义与该研究领域中其他同类

型的引入，然后从最近的 Covid-19 大流行中提取了关于神话的工作的例子。谈到本体论安全需要发

展一种道德—政治视角，不仅要解释而且要改变世界，本文对此的解释也为基于反神话的替代政治提

供了一条途径。因此，面对日益抬头的威权主义和反民主力量，本文揭示了一种有希望的、必要的道

德意识，即关于在 21 世纪 20 年代及以后应该做什么、如何面对和应对日益严峻的全球政治挑战的规

范性思想。

【原文】This paper contributes to this special issue by examining the existentialist themes re-emerging in

Ontological Security Studies (OSS) and does so by proposing an under-explored and overlapping terrain

regarding the function of myths and ontological security. What Blumenberg calls the ‘absolutism of reality’

becomes something to avoid through the process of telling, retelling, and adapting myths to suit our existential

needs. The paper distinguishes our existentialist intervention into OSS from recent ones within that research

community and then draws examples of the work on and of myth from the recent Covid-19 pandemic.

Speaking to the need for OSS to develop an ethical-political perspective to not only explain but also change

the world, the account we develop here also provides a pathway for an alternative politics based in countermyth. It discloses, therefore, a promising and, in the face of rising authoritarianism and anti-democratic forces,

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necessary moral ethos regarding prescriptive ideas about what to do and how to confront and and counter the

mounting challenges of global politics in the 2020s and beyond.

9. 离散情感国际关系的《自由之路》：重读让·保罗·萨特的国际关系三部曲（IR's

Roads to Freedom: Rereading Jean-Paul Sartre's trilogy as an International

Relations text）

Lucian M. Ashworth，加拿大纽芬兰纪念大学政治科学教授

【摘要】《自由之路》是让-保尔·萨特在 1938 年至 1940 年导致战争和法国陷落的一系列危机背景下

创作的三部曲。本文主张《自由之路》可以被看作是一部国际关系学的文本，并集中讨论了四个方面。

首先，重新聚焦于日常生活的国际关系。其次，从存在主义的角度解剖危机，丰富对危机的理解。第

三，主要角色的互动如何揭示了“疏远的调解”（Der Derian 在 1987 年《论外交》中首次探讨）在外交

中的核心。第四，质疑在国际关系中强调了解危机原因的核心地位。相反，《自由之路》重新聚焦我

们对日常国际关系中多样化效应的关注。本文论点与作者第一次阅读三部曲的个人经历紧密结合，并

阐述了三部曲如何影响作者选择研究国际关系。

【原文】Jean-Paul Sartre's trilogy Roads to Freedom is written against the backdrop of the crises between

1938 and 1940 that led to war and the Fall of France. In this article I argue that Roads to Freedom can be read

as an IR text, and I concentrate on four areas. First, a refocusing on the international relations of the everyday.

Second, the anatomy of a crisis from an existentialist viewpoint that can enrich our understanding of crises.

Third how the interactions of the main characters reveal the ‘mediation of estrangement’ at the heart of

diplomacy, first explored by Der Derian in his 1987 On Diplomacy. Fourth, it calls into question our emphasis

in IR on the centrality of causes to understand a crisis. Rather, Roads to Freedom refocuses our gaze on the

diverse effects in everyday IR. The argument of the article is interwoven with my own experiences reading

the trilogy for the first time, and how it influenced my decision to study IR.

【编译：林怡娉】

【责任编辑：封欣怡】

2024 年第 1 期（总第 13 期）

159

《剑桥国际事务评论》（Cambridge Review of International Affairs）

Cambridge Review of International Affairs， Vol.36, No.5, October 2023

1. 预防性军事打击还是预防性战争？权力资源的可替代性（Preventive military strike

or preventive war? The fungibility of power resources）

Steven E. Lobell，犹他大学政治学系的教授

【摘要】预防性战争的差异性增长率解释假定了权力资源具有高度可替代性。也就是说，它们假定一

个国家的权力资源可以轻易、快速地“移动”为实际军事能力。这种“单维和无差别”的基线掩盖了预防

性军事打击和预防性战争动机的重要区别。在认为权力资源可替代性低的条件下，为了防止或阻止预

期的不利权力转移，领导人有强烈的动机发动有限的预防性军事打击。相反，如果权力的可替代性较

高，则只有预防性打击，而非所有预防性行动的可能性较低。领导人有强烈的动机发动预防性战争，

包括全面入侵和征服，旨在破坏和/或摧毁挑战者的许多权力资产，包括不具威胁性的资产。本文将探

讨以色列为推迟伊拉克（1981 年）和叙利亚（2007 年）的核武器计划而决定使用预防性军事力量，

特别是军事打击的情况。

【原文】Differential rates of growth explanations for preventive war assume that power resources are highly

fungible. That is, they assume that a state’s power resources are easily and quickly ‘moveable’ into practical

military capability. This ‘unidimensional and undifferentiated’ baseline obscures an important distinction in

the motivations for preventive military strikes and preventive wars. To forestall or block an anticipated adverse

power shift, under conditions of perceived low fungibility of power resources, leaders have strong motivation

to launch a limited preventive military strike. High fungibility of power, in contrast, makes only preventive

strikes—not all preventive action—less likely. Leaders have strong motivations to launch preventive wars,

including all-out invasion and conquest, aimed at damaging and/or destroying many of the challenger’s power

assets, including non-threatening ones. In this article, I examine Israel’s decision to use preventive military

force, and specifically military strikes, to delay Iraq’s (1981) and Syria’s (2007) nuclear weapons programs.

2. 关于 \"一带一路 \"倡议的政治媒体话语框架分析：来自中国、澳大利亚、印度、日

本、英国和美国的证据（A frame analysis of political-media discourse on the Belt

and Road Initiative: evidence from China, Australia, India, Japan, the United

Kingdom, and the United States）

《剑桥国际事务评论》（Cambridge Review of International

Affairs）是一份同行评审期刊，发表关于国际事务的创新

学术成果。其涵盖社会科学领域，包括国际关系、历史、

法律、政治经济学、地区研究、发展研究和性别研究。它

致力于采用多样化的方法和方法，并鼓励学术界和政策制

定者提交多学科和跨学科的贡献。其 2021 年的影响因子

为 2.492，在 96 种国际关系期刊中排名第 33。

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杨海，中山大学国际关系学院副教授

Baldwin Van Gorp，鲁汶大学媒体研究所新闻与传播学教授

【摘要】本文试图剖析关于“一带一路”倡议（BRI）日益两极分化的讨论，并通过识别框架形式的不

同解释，分析在辩论中突出的参与者的竞争框架实践，提供对其的整体理解。为此，本文利用文化框

架和内容分析的概念见解，专门构建了来自中国、印度、美国、日本、英国和澳大利亚的“一带一路”

政治和媒体传播语料库。它首先在五个维度上识别、重建且并列了 14 个文化嵌入框架：中国的意图

（策略、零和游戏、平等）、“一带一路”对其他国家的影响（不利、不平衡、有利）、高标准的遵守

（低于标准、合格、达到标准）、结果（颠簸、全面、成功）以及与过去的联系（新瓶装陈酒、历史

遗产）。随后的演绎分析，沿着 14 个框架的思路，揭示了构成中国对“一带一路”的话语合法性的核心

主张，中国官员与外国政治媒体精英之间的显著差异，外国政府对“一带一路”的立场的连续性或变化

及其理由，以及外国精英媒体越来越多的批评性报道。

【原文】The article seeks to unpack the increasingly polarised discussion on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

and provide a holistic understanding of it by identifying the diverging interpretations in the form of frames

and analysing the competing framing practices of actors figuring prominently in the debate. To that end, this

study leverages conceptual insights from cultural framing and content-analyses a purpose-built corpus of

political and media communications on the BRI gathered from China, India, the US, Japan, the UK and

Australia. It first identifies, reconstructs and juxtaposes 14 culturally-embedded frames along five dimensions:

China’s intensions (Ploy, Zero-sum game, Equality), the BRI’s implications for other countries (Bane,

Lopsided, Boon), compliance with high standards (Below par, Qualified yes, Up to par), outcomes (Bumpy

ride, Catchall, Off with a bang), and linkage to the past (Old wine in new bottles, Historical legacy). A

subsequent deductive analysis, along the lines of the 14 frames, sheds light on the core claims constituting

China’s discursive legitimation of the BRI, the salient difference between Chinese officials and foreign

political-media elites, the continuity or change in the position on the BRI taken by foreign governments and

their justifications, and the increasing critical coverage by foreign elite media.

3. 外交政策中的海外经济利益视角——中国案例研究（Overseas economic interest

perspective in foreign policy—a case study of China）

龚炯，对外经济贸易大学经济系教授

李银珠，浙江工商大学经济学院世界经济教研室主任

【摘要】本文认为，海外经济利益和传统的非经济方面，如政治主权和领土完整，构成了一个国家

综合国家安全体系的重要组成部分。为了更好地理解一个国家外交政策理论的海外经济维度，本文

开发了一个分析框架，该框架受到多目标优化比例分析方法（Multi-MOORA）的启发，该方法量化

了一个国家根据具体风险因素调整的海外经济利益。以中国为例，借助涵盖 2013 年至 2017 年期间

与中国有经济联系的 172 个国家的数据集，本文发现，自“一带一路”倡议（BRI）以来，出于地缘政

治和意识形态考虑以及重大的经济利益，中国的外交政策重点放在了发展中国家。保护这些海外经

济利益对于建立相较于西方公司的优势是必要的，西方公司目前避开了许多有问题的国家。

【原文】We argue that overseas economic interests and traditional non-economic aspects such as political

sovereignty and territorial integrity constitute important parts of a country’s integrative national security set.

2024 年第 1 期（总第 13 期）

161

To enable a better understanding of the overseas economic dimension of a country’s foreign policy rationale,

we develop an analytic framework inspired by the Multi-Objective Optimisation by Ratio Analysis approach

(Multi-MOORA), which quantifies a country’s overseas economic interests adjusted by country-specific risk

factors. Using China as an example, aided by a dataset covering 172 countries with economic ties with China

spanning a period from 2013 to 2017, we show that its foreign policy focus in developing countries since the

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) motivated by geopolitical and ideological considerations as well as significant

economic interest. Protection of these overseas economic interests is imperative to establish an advantage over

Western firms which presently avoid many of the countries in question.

4. 东地中海难题的地缘政治解释：主权、均势和能源安全考虑因素（A geopolitical

account of the Eastern Mediterranean conundrum: sovereignty, balance of power

and energy security considerations）

Filippos Proedrou，南威尔士大学研究员

【摘要】本文从地缘政治的角度解释了东地中海地区不断演变的紧张局势。更具体地说，本文从概念

上解读了主权、力量平衡和能源安全问题如何推动勘探计划并形成管道政治。首先，东地中海新天然

气矿藏的发现给土耳其对塞浦路斯、希腊和埃及的主权带来了巨大挑战。其次，希腊和塞浦路斯与以

色列和埃及结盟，以制衡土耳其。这些国家推动的指定管道基础设施有助于加强其主权，巩固其联盟

关系，共同摆出对土耳其的姿态。第三，俄罗斯在地缘政治上的强硬态度促使欧盟委员会大力支持东

地中海的天然气计划，以加强能源安全，促进能源多样化，平衡俄罗斯的威胁。这三个主要目标共同

构成了该地区不断演变的难题。

【原文】This paper provides a geopolitical lens to explain the evolving tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.

More specifically, it unpacks conceptually how sovereignty, balance of power and energy security concerns

drive exploration schemes and forge pipeline politics. First, the discovery of new gas deposits in the Eastern

Mediterranean have created significant Turkish challenges to Cypriot, Greek and Egyptian sovereignty.

Second, Greece and Cyprus have allied with both Israel and Egypt to balance against Turkey. The designated

pipeline infrastructure these countries promote serves to enhance their sovereignty and cement their alliance

and joint posturing vis-à-vis Turkey. Third, Russia’s geopolitical assertiveness has led the European

Commission to vigorously back gas schemes in the Eastern Mediterranean to enhance energy security, promote

diversification and balance against the Russian threat. Together, these three prime objectives account for the

evolving conundrum in the region.

5. 全球南部的区域间主义：与区域外、超区域、跨区域和泛区域主义的比较（Interregionalism in the Global South: comparison with extra-, cross-, trans-, and panregionalism）

Shintaro Hamanaka（滨中慎太郎），日本发展经济学研究所高级研究员

【摘要】任何地区都不是孤立存在的。各地区总是有一些外部联系。现有的关于地区对外关系的研究

往往强调区域间主义，即把两个地区主义项目联系起来。这些研究大多涉及欧洲联盟（欧盟）与其他

地区的区域主义之间的联系。然而，欧盟是非常独特的，因为它的对外政策集中在布鲁塞尔，而区域

间主义自然在形成该地区的对外关系中起着主导作用。本研究试图利用全球南部各地区的合作项目案

例，对区域间主义进行比较分析。通过研究东南亚和南亚以及南美洲和南部非洲的合作项目网络，本

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研究探讨了区域间主义是对其他合作形式（包括区域外、超区域、跨区域和泛区域主义）的替代还是

补充。

【原文】No region exists in isolation. Regions always have some external linkages. Existing studies on regions’

external relations often emphasise inter-regionalism, namely, a project to link two regionalism projects. The

majority of these studies deals with the European Union’s (EU) ties with regionalism elsewhere. However, the

EU is very unique, because its external policies are centralised in Brussels, and inter-regionalism naturally

plays a dominant role in forming the region’s external relations. This study attempts to analyse interregionalism in a comparative manner, using the cases of cooperation projects across regions in the Global

South. By looking into the web of cooperation projects across Southeast Asia and South Asia as well as that

across Southern America and Southern Africa, this study examines whether inter-regionalism is a substitute

or complement to other forms of cooperation including extra-, cross-, trans-, and pan-regionalism.

6. 文化制裁与本体（不）安全：特大活动背景下的可操作性（Cultural sanctions and

ontological (in)security: operationalisation in the context of mega-events）

Nimrod Rosler，特拉维夫大学冲突解决与调解项目讲师

Galia Press-Barnathan，耶路撒冷希伯来大学国际关系系高级讲师

【摘要】对大型活动的文化抵制往往受到媒体的高度关注，但其有效性仍然受到质疑。这种有效性受

其在目标国内产生本体不安全感的能力的影响。然而，鉴于本体不安全概念的模糊性，衡量此类威胁

的影响具有挑战性。因此，本文提出了一种新的方法，利用社会层面的量化指标来操作主办和抵制大

型活动对本体安全（OS）的影响，从而对本体安全的动态进行更系统的跨国探索。本文还对文化制裁

和超大型活动政治的研究做出了贡献，对其对社会 “本体安全”意识的实际影响进行了实证评估。最

后，本文指出了对 “国家”本体（不）安全概念进行解构的重要性，以及社会中不同群体可能或多或少

会受到此类威胁的影响。本文利用在以色列举办 2019 年欧洲电视歌唱大赛期间对以色列犹太人进行

的全国性调查数据，发现举办欧洲电视歌唱大赛与本体安全之间存在正相关，在呼吁抵制欧洲电视歌

唱大赛之后，本体安全在一定程度上受到了威胁，而且不同社会群体在这些观念上存在差异。

【原文】Cultural boycotts of mega-events often receive high media profile, but their effectiveness remains

questioned. This effectiveness is influenced by their ability to generate ontological insecurity within the target

state. However, measuring the impact of such threats is challenging in light of the evasive nature of the concept

of ontological insecurity. Hence, we advance a new way to operationalise the impact of both hosting and

boycotting mega-events on ontological security (OS), using quantitative indicators on the societal level, thus

allowing for a more systematic cross-national exploration of the dynamics of OS. We also contribute to the

research on cultural sanctions and the politics of mega-events, by offering an empirical assessment of their

actual impact on society’s sense of OS. Finally, the paper points to the importance of de-constructing the

concept of ‘national’ ontological (in)security and to the possibility that different segments in society may be

more or less vulnerable to such threats. Using data from a national-wide survey among Jewish-Israelis in the

context of the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest in Israel, we found a positive association between its hosting and

OS, a perception of threat to OS to some extent following calls to boycott the event, and differences in these

perceptions among various social groups.

【编译：宋欣蔚】

【责任编辑：封欣怡】

2024 年第 1 期（总第 13 期）

163

《太平洋评论》（The Pacific Review）

The Pacific Review， Vol. 36, No. 6, 2023

1. 灰色地带：印太地区的风险化和对冲战略（Shades of grey: riskification and

hedging in the Indo-Pacific）

郭清水（Cheng-Chwee Kuik），马来西亚国立大学（UKM）马来西亚及国际问题研究所（IKMAS）

亚洲研究中心主任

【摘要】本文通过聚焦东南亚对中美激烈竞争和印度洋-太平洋地区出现的四方安全对话

（Quadrilateral Security Dialogue，Quad）的反应，解读小国和次等国家的对冲行为。报告认为，弱

小国家对外部现实的看法并非非黑即白，而是灰色地带，因为不确定性滋生了模糊性和矛盾性。这

些国家往往不认为大国（及其倡议）是明确的威胁或直接的解决方案。相反，它们看到的是一系列

风险和挑战，每种风险和挑战的表现形式和严重程度都在不断变化，所有这些都需要复杂的相互促

进和抵消措施的组合。所有东盟国家对相互竞争的大国的态度不一，认为四国的“自由开放的印太”

（FOIP）和中国的“一带一路”倡议（BRI）不仅带来了机遇，也带来了风险和危险。这些矛盾的看法

带来了一个“风险化”的过程，即各国识别并优先考虑某些风险，同时淡化其他风险，以满足国内精

英的利益。因此，尽管几乎所有东盟国家都在不同程度上强调了被牵连、被抛弃、两极分化和边缘

化的风险，但许多国家却淡化了大国侵略和干涉的危险，有些国家比其他国家更甚。因此，不同的

风险模式导致了不同的避险行为，促使各国对新出现的现实情况做出具有微妙区别的反应。

【原文】This essay unpacks the hedging behavior of small and secondary states by focusing on Southeast

Asian responses to the intense US-China rivalry and the emergence of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue

(Quad) in the Indo-Pacific region. It contends that the weaker states’ perceptions of external realities are not

black and white, but shades of grey, as uncertainty breeds ambiguity and ambivalence. The states often do not

view a major power (and its initiatives) as either a clear-cut threat or a straightforward solution. Instead, they

perceive a spectrum of risks and challenges, each with constantly changing manifestations and magnitude, all

of which require complex combinations of mutually-reinforcing and counteracting measures. All ASEAN

states have mixed attitudes towards the competing powers, viewing both the Quad’s Free and Open IndoPacific (FOIP) strategies and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as bringing not only opportunities but

also risks and dangers. These ambivalent perceptions entail a process of ‘riskification’, where states identify

and prioritize certain risks while downplaying others, in ways that serve elite interests at home. Hence, while

《太平洋评论》（The Pacific Review）是太平洋地区研究

的主要平台，作为跨学科期刊，其宗旨和目标为打破研究

领域之间以及学术界、新闻界、政府和商界之间的壁垒，

重点关注政策问题。根据 Journal Citation Reports 显示，

2021 年该刊的影响因子为 2.074。

164

nearly all the ASEAN states have stressed in varying degrees the risks of entrapment, abandonment,

polarization and marginalization, many have downplayed the dangers of big-power aggressiveness and

interference, some more so than others. The varying riskification patterns thus lead to varying hedging acts,

prompting subtly different responses to the emerging realities.

2. 中国对自由主义国际秩序的竞争（China’s contestation of the liberal international

order）

Sung-han Kim，高丽大学国际研究院国际关系学系教授

Sanghoon Kim，韩国海洋战略研究所助理研究员

【摘要】 “修正主义”这一概念在中美竞争加剧的背景下引起了国际关系学者的关注。它是崛起大国

的标志，而中国同样意图改变现状，引发大量讨论。然而，历史告诉我们，并非所有崛起的大国都

一定会成为革命国家，通过霸权战争来推翻现行秩序并取而代之。本文通过区分“竞争”和“挑战”，

对修正主义提出了新的解释。在单极化衰落的背景下，不满现状的崛起大国会对特定问题制度的规

则和原则提出质疑，并要求进行合法调整，以更好地反映新的权力分配。当要求遭到拒绝时，挑战

就会出现，而争论则会导致“去中心化”和“去合法化”既有秩序。亚洲基础设施投资银行的成立可以

作为一个例子，说明有争议的多边主义并不是挑战。本文的结论是，中国是在“竞争”而非“挑战”自

由主义国际秩序，并提出了美国可以考虑的一系列对策：有选择地迁就、加强联盟和伙伴关系、克

服国内挑战（如对自由主义国际秩序的自由主义价值观造成破坏的民粹主义）。

【原文】The concept of ‘revisionism’has caught the attention of international relations scholars amid

intensifying rivalry between the United States and China. It is a trademark of rising powers, and China was

likewise expected to become a revisionist power, intent on changing the status quo. However, history tells us

that not all rising powers necessarily become revolutionary states, seeking to overturn the prevailing order and

replace it with another through hegemonic wars. This paper presents a novel understanding of revisionism by

distinguishing between strategic‘contestation’and‘challenge’. In the context of declining unipolarity, a

dissatisfied rising power will contest the rules and principles of issue-specific regimes and demand legitimate

adjustments that better reflect the new distribution of power. A challenge emerges when demands are rejected,

and a contestation leads to‘deconcentration’and ‘delegitimation’of the established order. The establishment of

the AIIB can be examined as an example of contested multilateralism that falls short of a challenge. This paper

concludes that China is‘contesting’, not‘challenging’the liberal international order and suggests a set of

countermeasures that the U.S. can think of: selective accommodation, reinforcement of alliances and

partnerships, and overcoming domestic challenges such as populism that undermine the liberal values,

constitutive of the liberal international order.

3. 2007-2021 年东盟人权共识的演进路径（Five modes of China’s economic influence:

rethinking Chinese economic statecraft）

Atena S. Feraru，台湾中兴大学博士高级研究员

【摘要】本文在有关东盟宗旨及其人权机构性质的广泛记录和一致结论的基础上，对东盟人权机制的

作用和职能进行了全面的阐述。首先，本文特别强调，尽管有关该地区集团的性质和成就/失败的争论

仍在继续，但学术界对以下两个重要方面的看法趋于一致：东盟的规范框架及其“静默外交”的长期实

践旨在安抚现任政府，使其对不必要地干涉内政感到厌倦；地区人权机构主要是东盟的机构。这些研

究结果作为对东盟人权言论和实践分析的指导假设，其核心是政府间共识的演变、东盟政府间人权委

2024 年第 1 期（总第 13 期）

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员会（AICHR）在推进这一共识方面的作用，以及对东盟应对执政精英实施或支持的严重侵犯人权行

为的评估。后一项研究详述了该地区对 2014 年泰国军事政变、菲律宾的“禁毒战争”、罗兴亚人种族

灭绝以及 2021 年缅甸军事政变和随之而来的暴力反应。

【原文】This article provides a comprehensive understanding of the roles and functions of ASEAN’s human

rights regime by building on widely documented, consistent findings relating to the purpose of the association

and the nature of its human rights institutions. In particular, the paper starts by emphasizing that, despite

continuing debate over the nature and achievements/failures of the regional grouping, scholarship tends to

converge on the two important aspects: ASEAN’s normative framework and its long-standing practice of

‘quiet diplomacy’ are designed to reassure incumbent governments weary of unwanted interference in internal

affairs; and regional human rights institutions are primarily ASEAN bodies. These findings are formulated as

assumptions guiding the analysis of the association’s human rights rhetoric and practice, which centers on the

evolution of intergovernmental consensus, the role of the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human

Rights (AICHR) in advancing this consensus, and an assessment of ASEAN responses to gross violations

perpetrated or supported by governing elites. This latter examination details regional responses to the 2014

military coup in Thailand, Philippines’ brutal and largely extrajudicial ‘war on drugs’, the Rohingya genocide,

and the 2021 military coup in Myanmar and ensuing violence.

4. 稳定日韩关系：抑制民族主义、评估对华政策、安抚华盛顿（Stabilizing Japan–

Korea relations: Restraining nationalism, appraising Beijing, reassuring

Washington）

Leif-Eric Easley，梨花女子大学国际研究学教授

【摘要】安倍晋三首相和朴槿惠总统就职时，日韩关系已因历史问题和李明博总统史无前例地访问独

岛/竹岛争议小岛而陷入低谷。朴槿惠拒绝举行双边峰会成为关系紧张的象征。随后，2015 年 11 月 2

日，即上任 980 天后，朴槿惠在首尔与安倍晋三举行双边会谈。12 月 28 日，双方宣布关系缓和，达

成了一项支持战时“慰安妇”幸存者的协议。在文在寅总统任期内（2017-2022 年），紧张局势再次恶

化，这与双方领导人在 2015 年底扭转关系的说法相悖。然而，外交关系并没有走下坡路。在朴槿惠

和文在寅政府执政期间，日本和韩国的政策制定者通过三个稳定机制，成功地为双方的互动奠定了基

础。首先，政治精英们相互克制，以限制民族主义相互指责的恶性循环。其次，东京和首尔谨慎调整

对北京的政策，同时避免相互背离。第三，向美国保证其联盟的成本效益涉及三边合作，这也有助于

稳定日韩关系。

【原文】By the time Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and President Park Geun-hye took office, Japan-South Korea

relations were already experiencing a downturn over history issues and Lee Myung-bak’s unprecedented

presidential visit to the disputed islets of Dokdo/Takeshima. Park’s refusal to hold a bilateral summit became

the symbol of strained ties. Then on November 2, 2015 — 980 days after taking office — Park met Abe for

bilateral talks in Seoul. On December 28, the two sides declared a rapprochement with an agreement

supporting survivors of wartime brothels. Tensions worsened again during President Moon Jae-in’s term

(2017–2022), contradicting the narrative that leaders had turned relations around in late 2015. Yet the

diplomatic relationship was not on a downward spiral. Japanese and Korean policymakers managed to put a

floor under their interactions owing to three stabilizing mechanisms that operated during both the Park and

Moon administrations. First, political elites practiced mutual restraint to limit vicious cycles of nationalist

recriminations. Second, Tokyo and Seoul carefully calibrated policies toward Beijing while avoiding

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divergence from each other. Third, reassuring the United States about the cost-effectiveness of its alliances

involved trilateral cooperation that also helped stabilize Japan-South Korea relations.

5. 制约与机遇：2011-2021 年中缅关系的不对称依存（Of constraints and

opportunities. Dependent asymmetry in China-Myanmar relations, 2011–2021）

Simone Dossi，米兰大学国际关系学助理教授

Giuseppe Gabusi，都灵大学文化、政治和社会系国际政治经济学和东亚政治经济学助理教授

【摘要】本文认为，自 20 世纪 80 年代末以来，一种特殊的不对称依存模式--\"双重依存\"，即内部和

外部依存的结合--已成为中缅关系结构的特征。本文提出的假设是，这种模式的变化是 2011 年至 2021

年中缅关系波动的原因。作者从双边关系结构的两次变化中找到了经验证据来验证这一假设：分别追

溯了中缅是如何看待结构变化的，以及这种看法是如何引导各自的政策调整的。缅甸在 2011-2012 年

减少了对中国的对外依存度，这扩大了缅甸决策者可采取的潜在行动方案的范围，同时也减少了中国

可采取的行动方案的范围；而在 2017-2018 年缅甸恢复对中国的全面对外依存度后，情况恰恰相反。

本文最后推测，2021 年的军事政变很可能代表双边关系结构的第三次转变，进一步加强缅甸对中国的

外部依赖，限制军政府的回旋余地。

【原文】This article argues that a peculiar pattern of dependent asymmetry – ‘dual dependence’, i.e. a

combination of internal and external dependence – has come to characterize the structure of China-Myanmar

relations since the late 1980s. The hypothesis we present is that shifts in this pattern of dependent asymmetry

account for fluctuations in China-Myanmar relations between 2011 and 2021. We test this hypothesis against

empirical evidence from what we identify as two shifts in the structure of bilateral relations: for each, we trace

how structural changes were perceived in Naypyitaw and Beijing, and how such perceptions oriented an

adjustment in their respective policies. Myanmar’s reduced external dependence on China in 2011–2012

expanded the set of the potential courses of action available to Myanmar’s decision-makers and reduced the

set of those available to China; conversely, the opposite happened in 2017–2018, following Myanmar’s return

to full-fledged external dependence on China. The paper finally speculates that the military coup in 2021 could

well represent a third shift in the structure of bilateral relations, further strengthening Myanmar’s external

dependence on China and constraining the military government’s room of manoeuvre.

6. 东南亚土著人民应对气候变化的积极性：区域标量桥梁组织的作用（Indigenous

peoples activism on climate change in Southeast Asia: the role of regional scalar

bridging organizations）

Kim Reimann，佐治亚州立大学政治学助理教授

【摘要】东南亚的土著人民在地方、国家、区域和全球层面组织起来以解决影响其权利的问题。本文

认为，这种行动主义兴起的一个重要因素是区域性标度桥梁组织的存在，这些组织将不同标度的行动

主义联系起来，并通过提供全球和区域性行动机会来支持土著运动的发展。在东南亚，《亚洲土著人

民条约》（AIPP）和特波提巴（Tebtebba）通过其在全球政治舞台上的存在以及与该地区伙伴组织开

展的许多活动发挥了这一作用。本文以社会运动理论为基础，概述了地区性社会运动组织如何通过在

以下领域的规模桥梁作用，为全球南部的全球行动主义提供潜在支持：（1）资源动员；（2）创造政

治空间和机会；（3）传播思想。为了说明这一点，本文通过研究亚洲土著人民条约（AIPP）和特波

提巴（Tebtebba）在这三个领域所做的工作，介绍了东南亚土著人民在气候变化问题上的行动。

2024 年第 1 期（总第 13 期）

167

【原文】Indigenous peoples in Southeast Asia have organized on issues that affect their rights at the local,

national, regional and global level. This article argues that one important component of the rise of this activism

is the presence of regional scalar bridging organizations that link activism across scales and support the growth

of Indigenous movements by providing access to global and regional opportunities for action. In Southeast

Asia, the Asian Indigenous Peoples Pact (AIPP) and Tebtebba play this role through their presence in global

political arenas and their many activities with partner organizations in the region. Drawing on social movement

theory, this article outlines how regional social movement organizations potentially support global activism in

the Global South by scale bridging in the areas of (1) resource mobilization, (2) creation of political spaces

and opportunities and (3) the diffusion of ideas. To illustrate this, the case of Indigenous peoples activism on

climate change in Southeast Asia is presented through an examination of the work done in these three areas

by the Asian Indigenous Peoples Pact (AIPP) and Tebtebba.

7. 美菲联盟中的网络安全：任务渗漏（Cybersecurity in the U.S.-Philippine alliance:

mission seep）

Gregory H. Winger，辛辛那提大学国际与公共事务学院助理教授

【摘要】本研究探讨了网络安全在美菲联盟中的整合问题。网络安全等新形式国际冲突的增长低于

传统武装攻击的门槛，对旨在抵御传统军事威胁的安全联盟构成了直接挑战。本文采用过程追踪

法，研究了网络安全在美菲关系中的演变，以及美菲如何应对这一新挑战。文章发现，尽管双方都

关注网络安全，但在数字领域的政策上存在分歧，这阻碍了联盟的发展。这一发现凸显了精英政治

不和、对威胁的不同看法以及不同的制度偏好等问题是如何阻碍合作伙伴之间的网络合作并阻碍联

盟发展的。

【原文】This study examines the integration of cybersecurity within the U.S.-Philippine alliance. The growth

of new forms of international conflict, like cybersecurity, occur below the threshold of a traditional armed

attack and pose a direct challenge to security alliances designed to rebuff conventional military threats. Using

a process-tracing approach, this article investigates the evolution of cybersecurity within the U.S.-Philippine

relationship and how it has met this new challenge. It finds that despite mutual concern over cybersecurity,

divergent approaches to the digital domain as a policy area has stymied alliance development. This finding

highlights how issues like elite political discord, different threat perceptions, and divergent institutional

preferences can hinder cyber cooperation between partners and stymie alliance development.

8. 区域主义、成员资格和领导能力：亚洲及其他地区的启示（Regionalism,

membership and leadership: insights from Asia and beyond）

Shintaro Hamanaka，日本发展经济学研究所高级研究员

【摘要】本文从中国的谚语中汲取灵感，对地区主义进行了另一种解释，并特别提到了地区主义的成

员问题。这种替代性解释为地区主义的排他性提供了见解，而主流国际关系理论在提供合理解释方面

缺乏一定的有效性。本文假设，一个国家会组成一个它可以成为领导者的地区集团，将比它更强大的

国家排除在外。一个国家重视在地区集团中的领导地位，即使是在一个小的地区集团中。为了验证这

一假设，本文对 20 世纪下半叶在亚洲发起的地区主义进行了研究，并特别关注了美国的加入和排除。

通过分析从四个国家档案馆（澳大利亚、日本、英国和美国）获得的外交记录，以及退休官员的回忆

录和其他研究，本文表明，亚洲的地区主义往往是以排斥的方式推行的，主要是由日本，其次是印度

尼西亚。本文还讨论了欧洲的地区主义能否以及如何用这一替代理论来解释。

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【原文】Drawing inspiration from a Chinese proverb, this paper offers an alternative interpretation of

regionalism, with a special reference to its membership. This alternative interpretation provides insights into

the exclusionary aspect of regionalism, for which mainstream international relations theories lack a certain

efficacy in providing plausible explanations. We hypothesize that a state forms a regional group in which it

can be a leader, excluding states that are more powerful than it is. A state values the leading position in a

regional group, even in a small regional group. To test the hypothesis, this paper investigates regionalism

launched in Asia during the second half of 20th century, with special attention to the inclusion and exclusion

of the US. By analyzing diplomatic records obtained at four national archives (Australia, Japan, the UK, and

the US), as well as memoirs by retired officials and other studies, this paper shows that regionalism in Asia

was often pursued in an exclusionary manner, mainly by Japan, and to a lesser degree by Indonesia. The paper

also discusses whether and how regionalism in Europe can be explained with this alternative theory.

9. 中国在斯里兰卡的佛教战略叙事--利益与佛教？（China’s Buddhist strategic

narratives in Sri Lanka—benefits and Buddhism?）

Tabita Rosendal，瑞典隆德大学东亚和东南亚研究中心博士

【摘要】近年来，中国的“一带一路”倡议（BRI）对斯里兰卡的经济影响一直受到密切关注，但很少

有研究关注中国的佛教叙事在促进两国利益中的作用。通过分析中国和斯里兰卡官方声明中使用的佛

教战略叙事，本文认为，在“一带一路”倡议的“民心相通”纽带下，中国和斯里兰卡官员利用两国间的

佛教历史和交流推动了“一带一路”倡议，并加强了两国间的文化联系。本文认为，从狭义上讲，自该

倡议启动以来，中国在斯里兰卡的佛教外交有所增加，其重点是加强双边关系，减少对项目的批评。

中国的战略叙事取得了一定的成功，但由于这些叙事是与经济投资同时进行的，因此很难衡量其确切

的影响。更广泛地说，中国正越来越多地通过宗教战略叙事来定位自身和“一带一路”倡议，以减少批

评，促进其在国际体系中的利益和地位。然而，尽管中国将佛教战略叙事与基础设施投资相结合，可

能会确保倡议的持续实施，但这取决于东道国是否愿意接受这些叙事。

【原文】While the economic impact of China’s ‘Belt and Road’ Initiative (BRI) in Sri Lanka has been closely

monitored in recent years, few studies have focused on the role of China’s Buddhist narratives in furthering

the countries’ interests. By analyzing the Buddhist strategic narratives used in official Chinese and Sri Lankan

statements, this article argues that under the BRI’s ‘people-to-people’ bonds, Chinese and Sri Lankan officials

have used the Buddhist history and exchanges between the two nations to advocate for BRI projects, and to

strengthen their cultural ties. This article finds, more narrowly, that China’s Buddhist diplomacy in Sri Lanka

has increased since the BRI’s inception, and that it has focused on enhancing bilateral relations and mitigating

criticism of projects. China’s strategic narratives have been somewhat successful, but since they are employed

alongside economic investments, their precise impact is difficult to measure. More broadly, the CCP is

increasingly positioning itself and the BRI through religious strategic narratives to mitigate criticism and

further its interests and stature in the international system. However, while China’s projection of Buddhist

strategic narratives, in tandem with infrastructure investments, may ensure the BRI’s continued

implementation, this depends on the willingness of host countries of accepting these narratives.

【编译：马欣茹】

【责任编辑：封欣怡】

2024 年第 1 期（总第 13 期）

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《亚洲调查》（Asian Survey）

Asian Survey， Vol. 63, No. 6, 2023

1. 中国公众参与的类型及其对地方公共服务满意度的影响：作为调节变量的政治信任

（Types of Public Participation and Their Effect on Satisfaction with Local Public

Services in China: Political Trust as a Moderating Variable）

苗红娜，南京大学政府管理学院政治学系副教授

【摘要】公共服务满意度是衡量公共服务质量的重要指标，也是促进中国政治合法性的有效途径。本

文通过实证研究考察了三种类型的公众参与对中国公民的公共服务满意度的影响，并特别关注政治信

任的调节作用。利用 2020 年一项针对 6089 名受访者的调查数据，本文发现政府主导的讨论和非政治

参与对公共服务满意度有积极影响，而基层选举参与在统计上没有显著影响。参与效能、政治信任、

政策透明度和不公平待遇是影响居民公共服务满意度的潜在因素。在这些相关因素中，政治信任具有

显著的调节作用。当政治信任度较低时，参与对公共服务满意度的影响为零或负相关；当信任度较高

时，负相关得到缓解。

【原文】Satisfaction with public services is an important index of their quality and an effective way to promote

political legitimacy in China. This article empirically examines how three types of public participation

contribute to citizens’ satisfaction with public services in China, with special attention to the moderating role

of political trust. Using data from 6,089 respondents in a survey conducted in 2020, I find that governmentled discussions and nonpolitical participation have a positive effect on public service satisfaction, whereas

grass-roots election participation has no statistically significant effect. Participation efficacy, political trust,

policy transparency, and unfair treatment are potential factors affecting residents’ satisfaction with public

services. In these correlations, political trust has a significant moderating effect. When political trust is weak,

the influence of participation on public service satisfaction is null or negative; with greater trust, the negative

correlation is mitigated.

2. 清理行动：生态环境保护计划与中国城市空气污染（Cleaning Up Its Act: The

Ecological Environmental Protection Plan and China’s Urban Air Pollution）

Jingwen Wu，美国莱克星顿肯塔基大学政治学系博士生

James R. Masterson，美国肯塔基州莫尔黑德州立大学政治学副教授

《亚洲调查》（Asian Survey）是加州大学出版社代表加州

大学伯克利分校东亚研究所出版的学术期刊。该杂志于

1932 年以备忘录的形式成立，但在 1935 年更名为《远东

调查》，并于 1961 年获得了现名。该刊物持续关注亚洲

事务与发展，是亚洲研究领域的重要学术刊物之一。其

2021 年的影响因子为 0.511，在 84 种区域研究期刊中排

名第 68。

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【摘要】环境问题的紧迫性和全球性超越了地方和区域的界限，给发展中国家的决策者带来了重大挑

战。在经济和环境目标相互冲突的情况下，评估监管政策的有效性变得越来越重要。本研究以中国最

新的环境政策——《生态环境保护规划》为重点，调查了公共政策在激励发展中国家优先考虑环境监

管方面的有效性。本文利用了多层次建模和差分估计方法，并使用了 2014 年至 2019 年期间中国人口

最多的六个城市的数据，最终发现该政策实施后空气质量得到改善的证据。此外，本文还观察到，在

受政策制度细节影响最大的城市，空气质量的改善幅度更大。这表明，精心制定的公共政策可以改善

空气质量，为政策制定者和学者提供了重要的启示。

【原文】The urgent and global concern of environmental problems transcends local and regional boundaries,

posing significant challenges for policymakers in developing countries. Amid conflicting economic and

environmental goals, evaluating the efficacy of regulatory policies becomes increasingly critical. This study

investigates the effectiveness of public policy in incentivizing developing nations to prioritize environmental

regulation, with a specific focus on China’s most recent environmental policy, the Ecological Environmental

Protection Plan. Using multilevel modeling and difference-in-differences estimation with data from six of

China’s most populous cities between 2014 and 2019, we see evidence of air quality improvements following

the implementation of the policy. Furthermore, we observe greater enhancements in air quality in the cities

most affected by the institutional details of the policy. This shows that well-crafted public policy can improve

air quality, providing crucial insights for policymakers and scholars alike.

3. 选举制度改革与政策变革：以日本儿童保育普及化改革为例（Electoral System

Reform and the Politics of Policy Change: The Case of Universalistic Child Care

Reforms in Japan）

Yosuke Sunahara，日本神户大学法学研究生院公共管理学教授

【摘要】随着妇女参与劳动的扩大，许多国家试图通过改变性别分工来改革儿童保育支助。日本也尝

试过普遍性的儿童保育支持改革，但并不总是成功。20 世纪 90 年代的选举改革促使各主要政党进行

全民改革，各主要政党领导人也倡导类似的理念。不过，他们还是未能将福利扩大到所有儿童。尤其

就扩大资助范围达成一致具有挑战性。通过分析政党内部和政党之间的联盟形成，本文发现选举改革

导致了激烈的竞争，从而使各政党难以达成一致。向多数选举制的转变不仅加剧了政党间的竞争，也

使那些认为自己的选举成功受到威胁的党内团体难以被说服。

【原文】As women’s participation in the workforce expands, many countries seek to reform child care support

by changing the gender division of labor. Japan also attempted universalistic child care support reforms,

though these were not always successful. The electoral reforms of the 1990s prompted the major political

parties to make universalistic reforms, and the major party leaders advocated similar ideas. Still, they failed to

extend benefits to all children. Agreement on the expansion of funding was particularly challenging. By

analyzing coalition formation within and among political parties, I show that the electoral reform led to stiff

competition, which made it difficult for parties to agree. The change to a majoritarian electoral system not

only intensified inter-party rivalry but also made it difficult to persuade intra-party groups that perceived a

threat to their electoral success.

4. 2012 年后日本的平衡投票：最大反对党为何获得非支持者的选票（Balance-Minded

Voting in Post-2012 Japan: Why the Largest Opposition Party Receives Votes from NonSupporters）

Ko Maeda，美国丹顿北德克萨斯大学政治学系副教授

2024 年第 1 期（总第 13 期）

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【摘要】本研究利用调查数据来描述 2012 年后日本的一种新型策略投票行为。自民党自 2012 年重

新执政以来，在每次全国大选中都取得了胜利，而在野党阵营则分裂成许多党派，没有一个被视为自

民党的有力竞争者。在自民党肯定会获胜的情况下，尽管有些选民并不认为该党有能力治理国家，但

他们会把票投给反对党，尤其是最大的反对党。他们关心的是各党席位的平衡。与真正支持反对党的

选民相比，这些策略选民往往年龄更大、受教育程度更高、更富有、更关注政治新闻。

【原文】This study employs survey data to characterize a new kind of strategic voting behavior in post-2012

Japan. Since the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) returned to power in 2012, it has been winning every national

election, while the opposition camp has been fragmented into many parties, none of which has been seen as a

viable contender to the LDP. In this situation in which the LDP will certainly win, there are citizens who vote

for an opposition party, especially the largest one, though they do not believe it is capable of governing the

country. Their concern is the balance of seats among the parties. These strategic voters tend to be older, more

educated, richer, and more attentive to political news than those who genuinely support the opposition.

5. 欺骗性的性别平等： 揭开老挝人民性别平等观念的 \"黑匣子\"（Deceptive Gender

Equality: Unlocking the “Black Box” of Lao People’s Perception of Gender Equality）

Jungin Jo，韩国首尔淑明女子大学全球服务学院全球合作部教授

Wonjae Hwang，美国田纳西大学诺克斯维尔分校政治学教授

【摘要】尽管老挝在赋予妇女经济和政治权力方面取得了成就，但在卫生和教育等关键社会经济领域，

性别不平等现象依然存在。我们如何解释这些平等方面的差距？本文分析了老挝人民如何看待性别平

等，以及对性别平等多个维度的认知差异如何影响妇女在医疗保健和教育方面的权利。2023 年对 664

名老挝民众的调查结果显示，对平等责任的认识是性别平等的关键维度，这可能会限制医疗卫生领域

性别平等的改善。调查结果表明，女性领导力以及公众在权利和机会方面对性别平等的更多考虑可能

会促进老挝的性别平等。本研究为研究非西方国家对性别平等的认识和实践做出了贡献。

【原文】Despite achievements in women’s economic and political empowerment, gender inequalities persist

in the key socioeconomic areas of health and education in Laos. How can we explain these gaps in equality?

We analyze how Lao people perceive gender equality and how differences in the perception of multiple

dimensions of gender equality affect women’s rights in healthcare and education. The results of a 2023 survey

of 664 Laotians highlight the perception of equal responsibilities as the key dimension of gender equality,

which may limit the improvement of gender equality in health. The results imply that female leadership and

greater public consideration of gender equality with respect to rights and opportunities may promote gender

equality in Laos. This study contributes to the study of perceptions and practices of gender equality in nonWestern countries.

【编译：张潇文】

【责任编辑：封欣怡】

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《欧亚研究》（Europe-Asia Studies）

Europe-Asia Studies，Vol.75，No.9，2023

1. 政治漫画中武契奇领导下塞尔维亚的竞争性威权主义与民粹主义（Competitive

Authoritarianism and Populism in Serbia Under Vučić in Political Cartoons）

Nebojša Vladisavljević，贝尔格莱德大学政治学院教授

Aleksandra Krstić，贝尔格莱德大学政治学院副教授

【摘要】本文运用混合方法研究武契奇领导下塞尔维亚的竞争性威权主义与民粹主义的联系。杜桑·佩

特里奇奇（Dušan Petričić）是著名漫画家与政府批评家，我们对其 2013 至 2017 年间的 228 幅政治漫

画进行了定量内容分析，并对四幅反映侵犯媒体自由、不公平的政治竞争、民粹主义和滥用规则等关

键主题的漫画进行了定性视觉和语境分析。我们发现，作为竞争性威权主义的“软”面孔，由于依赖更

加非正式、复杂和更少具有压制性的威权操纵形式，民粹主义为国内观众和有影响力的国际行为体所

接受。

【原文】We explored links between competitive authoritarianism and populism in Serbia under Vučić via

mixed methods. We conducted a quantitative content analysis of 228 political cartoons (2013–2017) by Dušan

Petričić, a leading cartoonist and government critic, and qualitative visual and contextual analysis of four

cartoons that reflected key themes—media freedom violations, unfair political competition, and populist and

abusive rule. We found that populism appeared as the ‘soft’ face of competitive authoritarianism, tolerable to

domestic audiences and acceptable to influential international actors because of its reliance on more informal

and sophisticated and less repressive forms of authoritarian manipulation.

2. 停止归还：罗马尼亚的少数民族教会、财产权和欧洲化（Restitutio Interruptus:

Minority Churches, Property Rights and Europeanisation in Romania）

Beáta Huszka，伦敦大学学院斯拉夫东欧研究学院研究员

【摘要】本文旨在解释罗马尼亚境内历史上匈牙利教会财产归还的动态变化。在 21 世纪初，这些教

会的大多数索赔要求都获得了批准，但是在 2010 年以后，当法院开始质疑这些教会的历史财产权时，

《欧亚研究》（Europe-Asia Studies）为每年出刊 10 期的

学术期刊，由 Routledge 代表格拉斯格大学（University of

Glasgow）中东欧研究部门出版。主要关注前苏联地区国家

的政治、经济、社会议题及其 20 世纪的历史。

2024 年第 1 期（总第 13 期）

173

它们的大多数请求都被驳回。本文认为，这种判例上的转变可以用罗马尼亚加入欧盟后的政治环境变

化来解释。当时法院遵从普遍的社会共识，反映出归还少数民族教会在罗马尼亚公众中并不受欢迎

【原文】The article aims to explain the changing dynamics of property restitution to historical Hungarian

churches in Romania. While in the early 2000s most claims by these churches were approved, after 2010 most

of their petitions were denied when the courts started questioning these churches’ historical property rights. It

is argued here that this jurisprudential shift can be explained by the changing political environment after

Romania’s EU accession, when the courts deferred to the prevailing social consensus, reflecting the

unpopularity of restitution to minority churches amongst the Romanian public.

3. 一个享有不稳定福祉的社会：俄罗斯的收入流动性和不流动性（A Society of

Unstable Well-Being: Income Mobility and Immobility in Russia）

Svetlana V. Mareeva，俄罗斯国家研究型高等经济大学社会政策研究所分层研究中心主任

Ekaterina D. Slobodenyuk，俄罗斯国家研究型高等经济大学社会政策研究所分层研究中心高级研

究员

【摘要】本文重点关注 2009—2017 年间俄罗斯的个人收入流动性。与前几个后苏联发展时期一样，

俄罗斯的收入流动性仍然很高。同其他经济合作与发展组织成员国相比，俄罗斯的收入流动性较高，

持续福祉水平则较低。个人对收入状况的主观评估比客观状况更不稳定，持久的幸福感几乎不存在。

主观流动性与客观流动性并不密切相关。持续的福祉由阶级和非阶级因素共同决定，包括劳动力市场

地位、抚养负担和健康状况。

【原文】The article focuses on individual income mobility amongst Russians in the years 2009–2017. As in

previous periods of post-Soviet development, income mobility in Russia remains high. In comparison to

OECD member countries, income mobility is higher, while the level of persistent well-being is lower.

Subjective individual assessments of income situation are more volatile than objective positions, with

persistent subjective well-being almost non-existent. Subjective mobility does not correlate closely with its

objective counterpart. Persistent well-being is determined by a combination of class and non-class factors,

including labour market position, dependency burden and health status.

4. 圣彼得堡的公民城市专业知识（2012-2019 年）（Civic Urban Expertise in St

Petersburg (2012–2019)）

Svetlana Moskaleva，俄罗斯科学院社会学研究所初级研究员

【摘要】本文分析了俄罗斯城市中的城市专业知识现象，即 urbanistika，这一术语用于描述与城市规

划和决策相关的活动。这一知识领域的创立与公众对专家评估兴趣的增加不谋而合。该分析聚焦于一

个参与 2012—2019 年圣彼得堡城市重建项目的活动团体。本研究结合专业知识社会学和城市研究的

学术成果，旨在揭示公民城市专业知识的构建机制，并对形成此类活动的全球和地方条件进行分析。

在研究方法方面，本文对使城市问题成为专家劳动对象的网络创建过程进行了追踪。

【原文】This article analyses the phenomenon of urban expertise in Russian cities, urbanistika, a term used

to describe activities related to urban planning and decision-making. The creation of this field of knowledge

coincided with increased public interest in expert assessment. The analysis focuses on an activist group

involved in urban redevelopment projects in St Petersburg in 2012–2019. Using the insights of the literature

on the sociology of expertise combined with urban studies scholarship, the study sets out to uncover the

mechanisms by which civic urban expertise is constructed and to contextualise the global and local conditions

174

in which such activity was shaped. The methodological approach tracks the process by which the network is

created that allows for urban questions to become the objects of expert labour.

5. 俄罗斯反西方的虚假信息、媒体消费与格鲁吉亚的公众舆论（Russian AntiWestern Disinformation, Media Consumption and Public Opinion in Georgia）

Ralph S. Clem，佛罗里达国际大学史蒂文·格林国际公共事务学院教授

Erik S. Herron，西弗吉尼亚大学政治系教授

Ani Tepnadze，西弗吉尼亚大学政治系

【摘要】各国已学会如何利用媒体传播虚假信息，以推进其地缘政治目标。这些努力往往利用阴谋论

来针对其他国家，无论是直接对手还是第三方国家。俄罗斯尤其擅长这种做法，它试图通过其国际渠

道以及目标国家的国内媒体和当地政客来影响其他国家的公众舆论。本文评估了虚假信息宣传对格鲁

吉亚的影响。利用 2019 年的调查数据，我们研究了三种具体的反西方阴谋论是如何被与俄罗斯有关

的媒体或格鲁吉亚媒体所放大的，这些媒体所播放的节目更同情俄罗斯的外交政策偏好。我们发现，

那些信任格鲁吉亚亲俄媒体和/或接触过俄罗斯电视的受访者更有可能接受符合俄罗斯地缘政治利益

的阴谋论，这表明俄罗斯的虚假信息宣传工作一定程度上成功说服了一些格鲁吉亚公民。

【原文】States have learned how to use media as a means of propagating disinformation in the furtherance

of their geopolitical goals. Often these efforts employ conspiracy theories that target other countries, whether

as direct adversaries or in third-party states. Russia has a well-deserved reputation for being especially adept

at this practice as it seeks to influence public opinion in other states through its international channels as well

as domestic media and local politicians in the target countries. This article assesses the impact of

disinformation campaigns in the Republic of Georgia. Using survey data from 2019, we examine how three

specific anti-Western conspiracy theories were amplified by media outlets associated with Russia or with

Georgian outlets that aired material more sympathetic to Russian foreign policy preferences. We found that

respondents who trusted Georgian media with a pro-Russian orientation and/or who were exposed to Russian

television were more likely to accept conspiracy theories aligned with Russia’s geopolitical interests,

suggesting that Russian disinformation efforts might be moderately successful in persuading some Georgian

citizens.

6. 话语实践在公共外交和国际关系中的作用：俄日关系的案例分析（The Role of

Discursive Practices in Public Diplomacy and International Relations: The Case of

Russia–Japan Relations）

Ignat Vershinin，筑波大学博士

【摘要】本研究利用话语分析评估俄罗斯总统普京和外交部长拉夫罗夫的公开演讲，解构俄罗斯政治

精英在俄日关系中的话语实践。数据分析表明，从权力立场出发时，普京和拉夫罗夫否定了日本的政

治决策主权和日本公众在谈判过程中的作用。本文认为，尽管俄罗斯政治精英的话语实践是面向外国

公众的，但对其国内合法性的影响更大。

【原文】Utilising discourse analysis to evaluate Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Affairs

Minister Sergei Lavrov’s public speeches as part of public diplomacy, this study deconstructs the discursive

practices of Russian political elites in Russia–Japan relations. The data analysis demonstrates that, when

speaking from a position of power, Putin and Lavrov delegitimise Japan’s political decision-making

sovereignty and the role of the Japanese public in the negotiation process. This article argues that even though

2024 年第 1 期（总第 13 期）

175

the discursive practices of Russian political elites are oriented towards a foreign public, the impact on their

domestic legitimacy is greater.

【编译：汪平平】

【责任编辑：封欣怡】

《地中海政治》（Mediterranean Politics）

Mediterranean Politics，Vol.28，No.5，2023

1. “一带一路”倡议下地中海地区的中国基建外交：未来的挑战？（China’s

infrastructure diplomacy in the Mediterranean region under the Belt And Road

Initiative: Challenges ahead?）

张楚楚，复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院副研究员

肖超伟，中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院讲师（助理教授），英国剑桥大学空间战略实验室助

理研究员

【摘要】通过在民主或威权选举中投票或抗议来参与政治，与较低的和平要求相关。通过说明民间社

会和安全感知所发挥的作用，本研究结果对从事安全研究的学者和致力于缔造和平的决策者具有重要

意义。随着中国在“一带一路”倡议（BRI）框架下积极投资和建设海外基础设施，关于中国通过基础

设施外交能够且将要带来的变化出现了许多传言和误解。通过分析中国在地中海地区的基础设施项目

和外交活动，研究政府文件、公司简报和媒体报道，本文发现中国的基础设施外交目标有两点：1.通

过政治手段促进基础设施合作和海外经济联系。2.通过基础设施建设合作，增进中国与其他国家的政

治互信。尽管取得了初步成效，但中国通过基础设施外交（包括在地中海地区）获得的经济收益和政

治影响力仍然有限。原因是多方面的，其中最重要的是中国在角色定位上的困境，这使得中国的外交

政策（如基础设施外交）发生变化，并具有可解释性。

【原文】As Beijing is actively investing in and constructing infrastructure overseas within the framework of

the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), numerous rumours and misconceptions have arisen about the changes

China can and will bring through its infrastructure diplomacy. By way of an analysis of Chinese infrastructure

projects and diplomatic activities in the Mediterranean, examining government documents, companies’

《地中海政治》（Mediterranean Politics）是一本汇集了地

中海及其周边地区当代政治和国际关系研究的学术期刊。

地中海不仅被理解为那些边界部分或全部由海洋本身界

定的国家，而且被理解为一个跨越欧洲、非洲和亚洲大陆

的空间。因此，该刊寻求作为相关区域研究团体之间的桥

梁，文章范围包括更广泛的欧洲、非洲、中东和西亚地区

的国家和人口。该刊近五年影响因子为 2.266。

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briefings and media reports, we found that China’s infrastructure diplomacy goals are two-fold: 1.to promote

infrastructure cooperation and economic ties overseas through political means. 2. to enhance political trust

between China and other countries via collaboration in infrastructure development. Despite the preliminary

achievements, both China’s economic gains and political influence through infrastructure diplomacy,

including in the Mediterranean Region, remain limited. This derives from several factors, the most important

of which being China’s predicament in its role-taking, which makes its foreign policies such as the

infrastructure diplomacy subject to shifts and open to interpretation.

2. 中国在南地中海：将大马格里布纳入新丝绸之路（China in the Southern

Mediterranean: Integrating the Greater Maghreb in the new silk road）

Yahia H. Zoubir，法国凯致商学院国际关系和国际管理专业教授

【摘要】本文分析了中国与大马格里布地区国家（阿尔及利亚、利比亚、毛里塔尼亚、摩洛哥和突尼

斯）政治和经济关系的演变，它们是南地中海地区吸引外国势力的主体。本文讨论了中国如何通过双

边和多边关系、战略伙伴关系，以及在南地中海和邻近的萨赫勒地区发展互联互通，逐步将南地中海

国家纳入新丝绸之路。尽管马格里布国家依赖欧洲，但它们与中国的经济关系却显著增长。由于共同

的历史遗产和角色重叠，阿尔及利亚与中国的关系最为密切。2014 年，中国与阿尔及利亚确立了“全

面战略伙伴关系”，这在中东和北非地区尚属首次。中国努力在该地区营造有利于促进其经济和国家

安全利益的环境。中国试图通过将自身确立为南南合作者和发展者的角色来实现这一目标。中国建立

的多边论坛有助于对外传播“发展价值观”，培养信任感，并与合作伙伴进行更广泛的交往。通过交流，

中国政府期望其合作伙伴吸收并支持其政策，接受中国的国家角色概念。

【原文】This article analyses the evolution of China’s political and economic relations with the Greater

Maghreb States (Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia), a major part of the Southern

Mediterranean that has attracted foreign powers. It discusses how China has gradually incorporated the

Southern Mediterranean states into the New Silk Road through bilateral and multilateral relations, strategic

partnerships, and the development of interconnectivity not only in the Southern Mediterranean but also onto

the adjacent Sahel. Notwithstanding their dependence on Europe, the Maghreb countries’ economic relations

with China have grown noticeably. Due to shared historical legacy and overlapping roles, Algeria has the

closest ties with China, which signed in 2014 a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Algeria, the first of

its kind in the Middle East and North Africa. China strives for an environment in the region that is conducive

to advancing its economic and national security interests. It seeks to enact that objective through its selfattributed roles as South-South collaborator and developer. The multilateral forums it has instituted contribute

to its external altercasting of ‘developmental values’, to cultivate trust, and engage in greater socialisation with

its partners. Through altercasting, Beijing expects its partners to assimilate and support its policies and accept

China’s national role conceptions.

3. “角色论”视角下透视当今中埃全面战略伙伴关系（China and Egypt’s

comprehensive strategic partnership in the Xi-Sisi era: a ‘role theory’ prism）

孙德刚，复旦大学国际问题研究院研究员、中东研究中心主任

徐瑞珂，北京外国语大学英语系讲师

【摘要】尽管中埃双边贸易额和安全合作有限，但埃及是第一个在 1999 年与中国建立战略伙伴关系

的中东和阿拉伯国家，也是第二个在 2014 年与中国建立全面战略伙伴关系的国家。本文运用角色理

2024 年第 1 期（总第 13 期）

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论来解读这一看似矛盾的现象，认为中埃两国之所以能在当前时期扩大和深化合作，很大程度上是因

为两国的国家角色理念相契合。对两国官方文件和其他各种相关文献的深入研究表明，中埃两国决心

通过中国“一带一路”倡议与埃及 “2030 愿景”计划的战略对接，建立全面互补的伙伴关系。中国和埃

及分别是亚洲和中东地区的重要国家，致力于通过追求多极化和崛起大国的团结重塑全球权力结构。

【原文】Despite the limitations of its bilateral trade volume and security cooperation with China, Egypt was

the first Middle Eastern and Arab country that established a strategic partnership with China in 1999 and the

second to build a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2014. This article employs role theory to unpack this

seeming paradox, and argues that it is largely because of the compatibility of their national role conceptions

that China and Egypt have managed to broaden and deepen their cooperation in the Xi-Sisi era. A thorough

examination of the two countries’ official documents and a variety of other related literature reveals that China

and Egypt are determined to build a comprehensive and complementary partnership with the strategic docking

of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Egypt’s ‘Vision 2030’ plan. As pivotal states in Asia and the

Middle East respectively, China and Egypt aim to reshape the global power structure through the pursuit of

multipolarity and solidarity of rising powers.

4. 中法合作竞争中的角色动力与信任（Role dynamics and trust in France-China

coopetition）

Emilie Tran，香港浸会大学社会科学学院政府与国际关系学系助理教授

【摘要】在地中海国家中，法国与中国的双边关系可以说是最复杂的：两国之间密集的经济交流和全

方位的合作不仅时间最长、事件最多，而且还伴有持续且日益增长的关切。本文将国际关系文献中两

个不同的概念——角色理论和信任交叉起来，在实证和理论两方面做出了贡献。本文研究了法中六十

年的互动机制，探讨了法国的角色概念、期望、表现和适应。在理论方面，文章提出将中法之间同时

存在的合作与竞争定性为“合作竞争”，从而为现有的国家角色概念中增加了一种新的角色定位，即“合

作竞争者”。

【原文】Among the Mediterranean states, France has arguably the most complex bilateral relationship with

China: their intense economic exchange and all-encompassing cooperation are not only the longest and

eventful, but they are also marred with enduring and mounting concerns. Intersecting two distinct concepts

from the international relations’ literature, i.e., role theory and trust, this article makes both empirical and

theoretical contributions. It examines sixty years of France-China interaction mechanisms, looking at France’

s role conception, expectations, performance and adaptation. On the theoretical front, it proposes to

characterize the concurrent cooperation and competition between France and China as coopetition, thus adding

a new role enactment, that of coopetitor, to the existing conceptions of national roles.

5. 中国参与地中海事务的局限性：西班牙-中国关系中的角色冲突和新兴不信任（The

limits of China’s engagement in the Mediterranean: Role conflict and emerging

mistrust in Spain–China relations）

Mario Esteban，西班牙埃尔卡诺皇家研究所高级分析师，马德里自治大学东亚研究中心高级讲师

Ugo Armanini，埃尔卡诺皇家研究所亚太研究助理，马德里自治大学政治学博士

【摘要】近来，西班牙对中国采取了一种更具批评性的立场。本文通过运用角色理论和（不）信任概

念来解释这种立场。中国作为大国和经济技术竞争对手的新角色，西班牙对中国的更高期望，与西班

牙自我定位的角色（在很大程度上受到其与传统欧洲和美国盟友关系的影响）之间的相互作用加剧了

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角色冲突。这些情形引发了不信任，且西班牙当局对中国的行为表现出更大的担忧。因此，他们转向

了更具有附加条件的合作，最近在“一带一路”倡议、外国投资和 5G 网络的一系列外交政策证明了这

一点。

【原文】Spain has recently endorsed a more critical stance towards China. This article explains this posture

through the application of role theory and the concept of (mis)trust. Role conflict has intensified from the

interplay between China’s new roles of great power and economic and technological competitor, Spain’s

higher expectations towards China, and Spain’s self-identified role, greatly influenced by its relations with its

traditional European and US allies. This has generated mistrust, and Spanish authorities have shown greater

concerns about Chinese behaviour. As a result, they have turned to a more conditional co-operation as

evidenced by a series of recent foreign policy outcomes on the BRI, foreign investment, and 5G networks.

6. 北非扩大合作与欧盟的地缘政治觉醒（China’s expanding footprint in North Africa

and the European Union’s geopolitical awakening）

Anna Katharina Stahl，柏林雅克德洛尔中心欧洲外交和安全政策研究员

【摘要】多年来，欧盟一直努力将自身塑造成世界上一支规范性力量。随着中国的崛起，国际环境正

在发生变化，相互竞争的因素日益加剧。作为回应，欧盟领导层承诺使欧盟成为一个地缘政治行为体，

更加坚定地追求自身的战略利益。本文以中国与北非不断扩大合作为例，探讨了欧盟在该地区的角色

变化。通过运用角色理论和互动论进行分析，本文更好地理解了欧洲对中国在北非战略崛起的回应，

以及欧盟在该地区从规范大国逐渐转变为地缘政治行为体的过程。

【原文】For years, the European Union (EU) has sought to portray itself as a normative ‘force for good’ in

the world. With the rise of China, the international environment is changing and elements of rivalry are

sharpening. As a response, the EU’s leadership has promised to make the EU a geopolitical actor that would

be more assertive in pursuing its own strategic interests. Taking the example of China’s expanding footprint

in North Africa, this article examines the EU’s changing role in the region. By applying role theory and

interactionism to the analysis, the article offers a better understanding of the European response to China’s

strategic emergence in North Africa and the EU’s gradual transformation from a normative power into

geopolitical actor in the region.

【编译：马欣茹】

【责任编辑：封欣怡】