5252 湛江市中心城区绿色空间生态系统服务价值潜力分析及空间响应
摘要：城市绿色空间是未来中国城镇战略发展的重要生态空间载体。城市中心城区的绿色空间生态服务功能价值可作为未来城市生态空间规划的重要依据。通过对湛江市中心城区绿色空
间自然发展情形与国土空间规划情形的比对研究，应用 PLUS 模型进行双情景下 2035 年土地利用变化模拟，采用当量因子法及热点分析对生态系统服务价值及其高低值在空间上的聚集
情况进行分析，计算研究区内人类活动强度在空间上的聚集程度，进而对生态系统服务价值空间分布及人类活动强度空间分布进行叠置分析，得出国土空间规划政策下湛江市中心城区城
市绿色空间发展优先级分区。结果表明：（1）规划政策情景下，水域及耕地得到有效保护，建设用地蔓延受到抑制。（2）2035 年两种情景下的生态系统服务价值评估表明，规划政策
情境下生态系统服务价值总量较自然发展情景下提升 16886.48 万元，生态环境效益得到显著提升。（3）从生态系统服务价值空间分布来看，热点区沿海域聚集性较强，规划政策情景下
建设用地范围内冷点区范围缩小，西北侧冷点区向过渡区及热点区转换明显。（4）通过生态系统服务及人类活动强度的空间分布分析进而对绿色空间发展优先级分区，建议以赤坎区中部、
沿海域建设用地及水域范围、其他区域顺序进行分区建设。
关键词：土地利用变化；生态系统服务价值；国土空间规划；PLUS 模型；热点分析；人类活动强度
Abstract: Urban green space is an essential ecological spatial carrier for the strategic development of Chinese cities in the future. The ecosystem service value of green space in central urban areas
of cities can be used as an important basis for future urban ecological space planning. Through a comparative study of the natural development situation of green space in the central urban area of
Zhanjiang City and the spatial planning situation of the country, applying the PLUS model to simulate the land-use change in 2035 under dual scenarios and using the equivalence factor method and
hotspot analysis to analyze the spatial aggregation of ecosystem service values and their high and low rates. Calculate the spatial aggregation of human activity intensity in the study area. Then, overlay
analysis of the spatial distribution of ecosystem service values and the spatial distribution of human activity intensity. Finally, it is concluded that the priority zones of urban green space development in
the central urban area of Zhanjiang City under the territorial spatial planning policy. Results Indicate That:(1) Under the planning policy scenario, watersheds and arable land are effectively protected, and
the spread of construction land is restrained.(2) The assessment of ecosystem service values under the two scenarios in 2035 shows that the total value of ecosystem services under the planning policy
scenario is increased by 168,864,800 yuan compared with that under the natural development one, and the eco-environment benefits are significantly improved.(3) From the perspective of the spatial
distribution of ecosystem service values, the hot spot area has a strong aggregation along the sea area. Reduction in the extent of the cold spot area within the construction site under the planning policy
scenario. The transition from the cold spot area to the transition area and hot spot area on the northwest side is obvious. (4) Analysis of the spatial distribution of ecosystem services and intensity of
human activities to prioritize green space development. It is recommended that the central area of Chikan District, the construction land along the sea area and the water area, and other areas should be
zoned in order.
Key Words：Land use change; Ecosystem service value; Territorial Spatial planning; PLUS model; Hot spot analysis; Human activity intensity
基于 PLUS 模型分析的城市绿色空间发展多情景模拟及空间发展时序研究——以湛江市中心城区为例
Multi-scenario Simulation of Urban Green Space Development and Spatial Development Timeline Based on PLUS
Model Analysis - A Case Study of Zhanjiang City Central District
研究摘要
Research Abstract
